Better late than never, and with apologies for last night’s technical issues, the latest Newspoll result in The Australian overnight recorded a tie on two-party preferred, a slight improvement for the Coalition after Labor’s 51-49 lead in the four previous polls. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 35%, with the Greens also down one to 10%. The combined 15% others vote prompts The Australian to delve into some of what constitutes it: 3% apiece for the Nick Xenophon Team and Family First, 1% each for Palmer United and One Nation. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are little changed, down one on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 51%, but Bill Shorten loses last fortnight’s gains with a four point drop on approval to 33% and a three-point increase in disapproval to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 45-30. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1867.
UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with the latest Newspoll, which hasn’t made much difference to it:
Don’t tell me – poor old Phoney grew up wanting to join the ADF but turned out to be inadequate – and now he hates them and anyone who has anything to do with them or say anything positive about them.
In our electorate, there are three prepolls open for the first fortnight and two additional (for the ski traffic) in the last week.
Such huge numbers go through the prepolls that I have advised our candidate to basically stand outside one of them for the final two weeks.
chinda63 @ #1044 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 5:27 pm
Oh, I think the fewer gimmicks the better. The election is meant to be a serious choice for serious people. If T fails to show, it says he does not respect the people enough to answer their questions.
Labor does not need to send that up and should not turn the event into a joke. Shorten can do Q&A for 60-90 minutes. The more voters see of him the better for all concerned. Turnbot is allowing a contrary conclusion to be drawn – the less voters see of him the better.
Compact Crank Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 5:27 pm
Poor old Phoney – must have really suffered some major trauma at some stage. There’s treatment for that. According to the audience on QandA last night the NBN will cure your mental illness.
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Bollocks, Swinging Dicks, Screwing The Pooch ……… by whose lingo that are in your common useage, can I see whose mental issues loom large …… if you had spent your military time actually being in the front line instead of spending your time playing soldiers then I may have some respect …… we had rule 7.62 for clowns like you ….
compact crank @ #1049 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 5:30 pm
Unlike the current situation, then…where the deficit is going up ‘cos spending is rising faster than revenue…
Twitter limbering up for the online “debate”..
Darryl Snow @lapuntadelfin
“Turnbull is an idiot. He’ll get smashed on Facebook. Only because he is a politician. But it will be negative traffic. Why do that?”
..followed by Space Kidette (many PBers will remember her)..
Space Ki…Buffering @SpaceKidette
“@lapuntadelfin I’m convinced he thinks that he can talk his way out of anything. In this case, self-inflicted political suicide.”
..this is going to be fun!! 🙂
Your probably right on “gimmicks”. Although having soiled myself by looking at comments on Bolts blog there are quite a few commenter there who think Abbott should be deputised for the event.
That will be pretty much the take out from this event even if Shorten gets difficult questions. He’s unlikely to fwark up anything badly given his record in this style forum, so it looks like win / win for him and lose /lose for Turnbull.
Says on the AEC website “locations and opening times of early voting centres will be available on this website from Sunday 12 June.” So all the debate about where they are, how many and how far away, is a leetle bit premature. Partly of course it depends on a quick check around the RE agents to find empty shopfronts. But yes dtt, I think their practice is to only have 1 or 2 per electorate, so not as easy as BCC elections.
Anyone know – are Mal and Bill both on Twitter? That gives practice in short, pithy answers.
After the last State election, the Coalition in Victoria referred the ALP to police for investigation over the use of staffers in campaigns.
Today —
‘Victoria Police has today informed the Leader of the State Opposition Mr Matthew Guy MP that a thorough assessment of his complaint alleging misuse of casual electorate office staff by the Victorian Labor Party has identified no criminal offence. ‘
http://vicpolicenews.com.au/news/10282-victoria-police-update-on-complaint-made-by-the-leader-of-the-state-opposition.html
On Essential, for the question “Which of the following actions on climate change would you most support?”
Half the respondent overwhelmingly support “Incentives for renewable energy” (49%) over an ETS (13%), Abbott’s “Direct Action” (10%) or no action (10%). Breakdown by parties for an renewable energy incentives are Labor 50%, Coalition 48%, Greens 58% and others 54%.
zoomster @ #1060 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 5:48 pm
Wow I still remember leading up to and after the elections, the Herald Sun and a few other people were still banging on how Daniel Andrews is guilty. They won’t even use the term “allegedly”.
What is a “silent elector”?
And what religion says you can’t attend a polling place?
My experience is that you just turn up at the pre-poll site and say you want to pre-poll and its no questions asked (except what electorate you are in).
Turnbull & Shorten are both on Twitter ..but, I suspect their staff often write/send the tweets on their behalf ..as JG used to do..
Who was it said ‘there areno factions in the Liberal party’:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/young-liberals-liberal-party-investigating-black-ops-branch-meeting-as-flailing-faction-flexes-muscles-20160527-gp5ywl.html
Hmmm—
Turnbull’s shocking double standards:
1. He arranges with Facebook and news.com.au to hold an online debate and then tells Shorten to participate.
2. On the other hand, he complains that the Brisbane debate was organised without consulting him first.
‘ASIC has today commenced legal proceedings in the Federal Court in Melbourne against National Australia Bank (NAB) for unconscionable conduct and market manipulation in relation to NAB’s involvement in setting the bank bill swap reference rate (BBSW) in the period 8 June 2010 to 24 December 2012.’
http://asic.gov.au/about-asic/media-centre/find-a-media-release/2016-releases/16-183mr-asic-commences-civil-penalty-proceedings-against-national-australia-bank-for-bbsw-conduct/
Re the discussion earlier about US Vice-Presidential picks.
It’s anyone’s guess how many more “high crimes and misdemeanours” Mr Trump will announce in the next 5 months as being his policies. I would have thought that there’s a pretty good chance a Trump presidency will end in impeachment and conviction, possibly sooner rather than later. It’s doubtful that too many members of Congress, House or Senate, would want to go down with the Trump ship.
So he might well want to pick a running mate who would be even more unappealing to Congress than himself, rather as Nixon was thought to have done with Agnew. Ted Cruz springs to mind, but Palin would probably do the trick too.
re. the LNP Young Libs factions, Alan Jones called for a royal commission into their behaviour.
I am sure Bill could oblige should he be elected on July 2!
Thanks, Markjs
Diog
Someone whose name doesn’t appear on the electorate roll for a variety of reasons – for example, a woman hiding from an abusive partner. I would speculate that many celebrities are also ‘silent’, because they don’t want their address released to the public.
As for the second, it’s not attending the polling place, it’s the day. There are religions to whom Saturday is sacred!
Diogs,
Isn’t Saturday the Sabbath for many orthodox Jews.
I remember Joseph Gutnick would not attend Melbourne Games on a Saturday when he was President of the Club and said openly he would miss a Grand Final if it was on a Saturday.
Silent voters would probably be those who are registered voters but don’t appear on the electoral rolls because of security or witness protection or some such reason that necessitates them not being on any public list.
imacca @ #1057 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 5:45 pm
Bolt? Oh, far better you than I…..
Shorten has to treat the watching voters with the respect they deserve. He will do well. He’s delivered at dozens of similar events. They match his style. I also think voters really like them. They add a new layer to the campaign experience.
The Q&A live-cast last night was just great. Voters had the call. I felt very connected to it…great production values, Tony Jones behaved himself…the panelists behaved with restraint and respect. I hope we can see something similar tomorrow. Voters have things on their mind. What better way to explore these issues and who better to do it with than the contenders for PM.
Diogenes @ 5.54: A silent elector is a person whose address is suppressed on the electoral roll because of a possible risk to their personal safety. Escapees from domestic violence, Family Court judges and so on are the archetypes. The classic religious objections are from Jehovah’s Witnesses and from Orthodox Jews (some of whom have a problem with voting on a Saturday).
Is ASIC trying to preempt a Royal Commission into banking behaviour?
And what religion says you can’t attend a polling place?
Certain ultra orthodox Jews with strict Sabbath observance on Saturday. Possibly some Christian groups who observe the Sabbath on Saturday.
The great thing about live Q&A is, of course, the staging cost is almost nil. In a context where everything costs money, almost-free campaigning is a double win.
pedant @ #1068 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 5:57 pm
The Congress could impeach both the POTUS and VPOTUS . I suspect the next in line would be the Speaker, followed by the Secretary of the Treasury or possibly the Chief Justice….
briefly,
That would be enough to put me off peaches.
I think the Republican VP nomination is more important than usual because there’s a pretty good chance that Trump, if elected, would do something illegal. He could well face impeachment in his first term. So his VP might well end up being President.
7News included Labor’s positive announcement on apprentices today in its wider flood coverage. Good, but odd.
Re earlier discussions on Corporate tax cuts: the GDP-weighted global average corporate tax rate is 29.8%, according to the Tax Foundation) (a conservative Washington-based think tank): http://taxfoundation.org/article/corporate-income-tax-rates-around-world-2015
At 30%, Australia’s standard rate is not particularly high. There are far greater priorities than attending to the big end of town’s self-interested bleating that they must have tax cuts.
daretotread @ #1050 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 5:31 pm
There will be at least one in your electorate.
Sky News
Bronwyn Bishop says @billshortenmp is ‘throwing money’ at problems.
Better than throwing pork at sportsgrounds, surely.
US President line of succession: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession
greensborough growler @ #1080 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 6:13 pm
lol
I will be finished my attendance at work soon…and then take a turn doing some phone-banking for the Campaign for Cowan….lots of fun
Have literally just heard a “building our future” ad on the radio. This is the one where the government spruiks it’s road and rail spending. Now, I get that the national security ads are technically within caretaker guidelines; but this surely would not?
No matter how scared Turnbull is to face Shorten in a Town Hall debate, the damage by not turning up will be much worse. No Shorten can present all dialogue from a purely ALP perspective and there’ll be no counter-narrative to provide balance. Bluey can call tomorrow for the ALP right now.
I would really urge all people on PB to watch the latest video available via The Monthly Today daily email, it has a panel that includes Nobel laureate Peter Doherty, the Australia Institute’s chief economist Richard Denniss and journalist Laura Tingle.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/video/2016/march/29/1459206554/breaking-impasse-peter-doherty-richard-denniss-laura-tingle-global?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Today%20-%20Tuesday%207%20June%202016&utm_content=Today%20-%20Tuesday%207%20June%202016+CID_12b1cc0cb456a13bf5692fcd833b2235&utm_source=EDM
If you can’t watch the whole clip, watch at the 22min mark.
Peter Doherty talks about the impact of business on politics, applicable here as well as the USA
He discusses the meeting between Abbott and the miners and other monied powers as well as Murdoch. Then goes on to discuss the way this went in America and talks about how Murdoch is just a very minor player, he is just their advertising agency. It is a powerful, powerful statement.
Must be a bad day for Mal as virtually no politics on PM so far. Certainly no mention of debate debate, which is hardly surprising surprising.
Dio: I have a vague recollection of some controversy surrounding the 2007 or 2010 election where some religious sect, who do not vote for religious reasons, were caught out involving themselves in the political process (the Libs were the beneficiaries of this) in deference to their own doctrine.
I gather it involved an Old Testament issue like gay rights (it might have been abortion or chaplains in schools or something), but I remember one of the ABC’s current affairs shows trying to pay them a visit and were denied entry.
I’ve just remembered!
It was the Exclusive Bretheren
Exclusive Brethern, I think it was.
The Liberals don’t seem to be endowed with much courage.
chinda63 @ #1093 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 6:29 pm
Exclusive Brethren IIRC. Certifiable nutters.
Despite their abstinence from voting, they nonetheless felt it OK to donate to the Libs big time.
Election announcement for Labor on ABC at 6.56pm.
Coalition one tomorrow at the same time.
NXT on Sunday at 6.26pm and Greens next Tuesday at 6.56pm.
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2006/s1748441.htm
Can we also agree on how to spell breth.. whatever?