Election minus five weeks and one day

Almost three weeks into the campaign, the Coalition parties in New South Wales are still yet to finalise the order of their Senate ticket, while Labor finds itself with a situation vacant in the Northern Territory.

I’ve finally gotten around to updating BludgerTrack with the leadership ratings from Monday’s Newspoll, so the finalised weekly reading of that can be found at the bottom of the post. As well as that, a small number of campaign news snippets to relate:

• The Coalition parties in New South Wales are still yet to resolve the order of their Senate ticket, which is proving problematic with respect to the balance between the Liberals and the Nationals, and competing Liberal factions. Liberal incumbents needing to be accommodated are Connie Fierravanti-Wells, Marise Payne and Arthur Sinodinos, and they are joined by Nationals Senators Fiona Nash and John Williams of the Nationals, for whom inter-party arrangements appear to have secured the second and fifth spot respectively. However, the Centre Right faction of the Liberal Party is also very keen to find a place for newcomer Hollie Hughes, who won top position for the half-Senate ticket at a preselection vote in March, before agreeing to a swap with second-placed Fierravanti-Wells, a member of the hard Right. With a full ticket now required for a double dissolution, Hughes and Fierravanti-Wells are battling for fourth place, with the loser set to be relegated to sixth, with first and third set to go to Payne and Sinodinos. Joe Aston of the Financial Review today reports that Hughes is likely to miss out, with both Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison pushing for Fierravanti-Wells, despite Morrison’s factional alignment with Hughes. However, Sarah Martin of The Australian reported earlier this week that the situation was up in the air because moderates were split between competing desires to honour their alliance with the Centre Right by favouring Hughes, or support the leadership by favouring Fierravanti-Wells. The matter is being determined through a ballot of the party’s state executive conducted by email, the result of which is expected at any tick of the clock.

• The Northern Territory News reports that two candidates have formally declared for the preselection to replace Nova Peris as Labor’s Senate candidate in the Northern Territory: Malarndirri McCarthy, a former ABC journalist and member of the Northern Territory parliament from 2005 to 2012, and Kon Vatksalis, president of the Northern Territory Leukaemia Foundation and a member of the territory parliament from 2001 to 2014. Also considering there options are Marion Scrymgour, a former Deputy Chief Minister and member from 2001 and 2012, and Ursula Raymond, Peris’s chief-of-staff. Fleur Anderson of the Financial Review noted that Scrymgour was “regarded as an unpredictable candidate” because she had sat as an independent for a period in 2009 following a disagreement over government policy concerning remote communities. Katskalis presumably starts from a disadvantage in that all other candidates are indigenous women. The matter will be determined by the party’s chief executive.

• After lingering rather too long on its starting odds of $1.35 for Labor and $3 for the Greens, Sportsbet is now offering $1.50 on the Greens and $2.50 on Labor in David Feeney’s seat of Batman.

bludgertrack-2016-05-27

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

611 comments on “Election minus five weeks and one day”

Comments Page 9 of 13
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  1. Simon Katich
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:34 pm

    That’d be all those Corporations that have paid Billary hundreds of millions? Those Corporations?

  2. So Channel Nine have sacked the 60 minutes Producer but are refusing to pay for the bail for the poor buggers in the Lebanese prison?

  3. Trog Sorrenson
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 3:25 pm
    Re Corangamite.

    A brief Google search of Corangamite election news brings up several themes: fraudband, mobile black spots, Colac dairy and suicide. Not fertile ground for the Wentworth Fizzer.

    Don’t forget the $570,000,000 in loan assistance Turnbull announced for the dairy farmers this week. Corangamite is dairy country is it not?

  4. So getting the Mexicans to build a wall to keep themselves out of the US was just Trump being taken out of context?

    Frankly there is very little difference between building a wall and “turning back the boats”, except that about a thousand times as many people go over the border than travel by boat.

  5. I wonder when Bill Shorten is going to criticize the President of Indonesia? I’m sure he disagrees with many of his policies like Capital Punishment and Islamic aspects of Indonesian law. He’s had a swing at our number one strategic partner – may as well add in number two. And when he’s done there maybe the Chines President could cop some Billion Dollar Bill counseling.

  6. compact crank @ #383 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:23 pm

    lizzie
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:12 pm
    There’s no point having a meeting when it’s going to be:
    AMA – we want more.
    Minister – no.
    How many times do you want to go through that?
    Our kids are great to take shopping because when they get told no if they ask for something extra they know that is the final answer – it is not a negotiation.

    Maybe you might want to reflect on the fact that the AMA are not kids. Nor is the Business Council, the ACTU or ACOSS.

    They have power, leverage and represent the interests of significant sectors in our society. The problem with Abbott and co was that they treated everyone as kids.

    Further, the Government is not our parent (Talk about the nanny state!) but, rather, it is our creation and exists because we deem it so (as a nation).

    Your mindset demonstrates why the current government is in so much trouble.

  7. Compact Crank
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:33 pm

    phoenixRED
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:26 pm
    First refugees sent to Cambodia under $55m deal have left

    Well that kills off the ALP argument about they’ll do it better and resettle them (which they won’t – because lots want to end up in Australia any way they can – it’s not about being safe – it’s about being in Australia.)

    It’s fun to watch that crank spinning backwards…

  8. Compact Crank
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:44 pm

    Why is the flat earth society so obsessed with walls and boats?

  9. Compact Crank
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:44 pm
    What have Keynesians got against building a massive fence across the Mexican Border?

    It’s a stimulus 🙂

    Got to hand it to you Crank, you’re more fun than ALP-GRN wars.

  10. How the F%^& a Secretary of State can get away with running official business through a private email server is completely beyond me. And her IT Guy has been granted immunity in order to get their testimony – yep – nothing to see here.

  11. TPOF
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:47 pm
    Did the ALP negotiate the freeze to Medicare payments they started in 2013?
    Didn’t think so.

  12. Chris Bowen was very impressive today, right across his brief, and able to counter-punch Morrison with facts and figures, rather than three-word slogans.

    More the pity that most people would not have seen it. Only political tragics like us bother to tune in.

  13. Darn

    Don’t forget the $570,000,000 in loan assistance Turnbull announced for the dairy farmers this week. Corangamite is dairy country is it not?

    I am not sure this is much of a plus. The Fizzer is not promising $570,000,000 as some sort of cash flow grant, or regulating structural changes to the industry, he is just underwriting loans. In other words giving the farmers more debt. As I understand it, Labor will match this $570m loan underwrite, plus look at regulatory changes, including making Fonterra shareholders wear some of the pain for the companies poor price forecasting, rather than gouging dairy farmers .
    Labor may also look at Coles/Woolworths. If they run $1.00 milk as a loss leader, than that’s OK, provided they still pay farmers full tote odds. If they don’t pay farmers properly, they need to be held to account.

  14. TPOF
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:47 pm
    No, the problem is a lot of them don’t behave like adults – in particular the Union Movement.

  15. I see the ADF and their reps are tut-tutting about candidate Hastie grinning away in his army gear. I have no problem with this as red neck soldiers love the uniform. However, I see the same PR photo has his wife and baby in the same shot. This is where it gets interesting as while pollies love the family shot on the way up (read between the lines – happily married family man) they get all defensive and cry “privacy” when one of their offspring gets on the wrong side of the tracks or their partner runs off with someone else. They can’t have it both ways. Tony Abbott was quick to bring out his winning and winsome daughters, but as soon as some bad things happen in the family (not necessarily Abbott’s) we get this kind of hurt response that “families” are untouchable. As I said, you can’t have it both ways in my view. If you decide to bring your family in on the upside, you should cop it sweet when the family turns into a negative.

  16. Compact Crank
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:52 pm
    TPOF
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:47 pm
    No, the problem is a lot of them don’t behave like adults – in particular the Union Movement.

    Take your prescribed medication and have a lie down…..you’ll feel better in the morning

  17. A Crikey Poll …. hands up those PB who have hung up on an* Indian Telephone Scam* but have wasted their Friday afternoon mindlessly arguing with a “useful idiot” LNP troll ?????

    Be Honest …..

  18. Don’t forget the $570,000,000 in loan assistance Turnbull announced for the dairy farmers this week. Corangamite is dairy country is it not

    Most of the dairy farmers do not want loans, it was instructive that Ricky Muir got the best reaction from the farmers who went to Melbourne.

  19. Don’t you love the LNP and the ALP out-Agrarian Socialising each other. If you can’t make money Dairy Farming then don’t do it. Sell up and do something else – like all other small business people have to.

  20. WarrenPeace
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:53 pm
    Is Compact Crank real or some comedian pulling our leg. what ever I wish he/they would give it a rest.

    Just your standard everyday RWNJ….amusing for a little while…..then just a total bore….

  21. “I understand that Laboristas here are likely to have a different point of view, but really, if the worst thing that the Greens do to the ALP in this election is to defeat Feeney in Batman, how bad is that? I’m sure most ALP supporters will eventually be able to overcome their grief and come to terms with this…”

    That’s a lame statement. Offcourse Labor want to hold it’s own seats. Greens questioning why Labor are upset that the Greens have done a cynical preference deal with the Liberals to attack Labor seats. Geezzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  22. [How the F%^& a Secretary of State can get away with running official business through a private email server is completely beyond me]
    I know. Colin Powell should be arrested at once.

  23. Compact Crank
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:36 pm

    I must say when I hit the road back in ’04 Canadians were easily identify with the huge maple leafs on their backpacks and clothes whilst many Americans chose to identify as North Americans.
    This largely disappeared with the election of Obama.

  24. Tricot – I have no problem with Ex-AD people using uniform shots.
    My wife and infant child appeared in ALP advertising material for Tinley in his unsuccessful run for a Federal seat. Does that make them fair game for the media?

  25. phoenixRED
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:54 pm

    The same could be said for Lefties.

    I give the phone to my kids who practice Foreign accents and taking Pizza Orders.

  26. Re the nuisance calls: in the last few weeks I have taken to answering the phone with “National Center for Discouraging Nuisance Calls”. Fortunately I have an easily recognisable voice so people who know me laugh for a second or two and then go on with the conversation. Other calls just go “click – beeeep”.

  27. Crikey:

    Two key sets of economic data this week point to a question that should be central to the current election campaign and today’s treasurer’s debate: where is growth coming from next for Australia? Neither side has convincing answers.

    The government’s “national economic plan” is a slogan — “jobs and growth” — in search of a strategy, with lots of talk about “transition” and assertions about innovation and tax cuts, but no hard answers about what is going to take the place of the mining boom other than a continued high level of government spending: it will still be higher than the average of the Labor years — GFC and all — at the end of the forward estimates.

    Labor at least understands that a switch to renewable energy will be a big investment driver, in addition to curbing our carbon emissions, but its primary focus is on education and health, both of which are crucial long-term drivers of economic growth, rather than infrastructure.

    Next week we’ll see how the economy fared in the first quarter of the year overall. But there’s a sense that business confidence hasn’t picked up as much as we all hoped — even Labor people — when Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott, and that we’re getting to the limit of the workers’ capacity to sacrifice wages growth for jobs, which has been central to the continuing strong employment growth of recent quarters despite tepid economic growth.
    Then there’s weak inflation as well, which the Reserve Bank sees continuing well into 2018. And of course, having an epically long election campaign won’t help any of this.
    Perhaps at lunchtime today we’ll find out where exactly Scott Morrison and Chris Bowen think the next stage of growth is going to come from — unless their plan is to keep spending at 25%-plus of GDP and building houses forever.

  28. The Greens mightn’t even need Liberal preferences to win Batman, Feeney is such a clusterfuck that even I could beat him.

  29. The latest scam in my area is “The Govt solar panel rebate”. I say sorry got some, they say what about hot water, sorry solar hot water too. They then hang up.

  30. David, what is this alleged preference “deal”? That in many seats the Greens will say “intelligent voters, feel free to make up your own minds”? If the Libs think that is such a tremendous favour that they’ll recommend a no. 2 preference to the Greens, then I have a bridge to sell to them.

  31. The Greens mightn’t even need Liberal preferences to win Batman, Feeney is such a clusterfuck that even I could beat him.

    Very few people vote for the candidate, most people in Batman will vote for the ALP or Libs or Greens etc. Do you think the people in Northcote who have million dollar homes are worried he is one of them? May be worth 3% against him.

    If the Libs don’t preference the Greens (which I think is 100% likely) Feeney will get close to 60% tpp or tcp.

  32. CC reminds me of a blind kid playing quoits – thinks if he keeps tossing those rings out there, something will eventually land.

    Meanwhile the rest of us are cacking with laughter … ahh, so entertaining 🙂

  33. corporate_misfit @ #419 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:54 pm

    Compact Crank
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:52 pm
    TPOF
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:47 pm
    No, the problem is a lot of them don’t behave like adults – in particular the Union Movement.
    Take your prescribed medication and have a lie down…..you’ll feel better in the morning

    And we’ll feel better now.

  34. cc@4.48

    Unfortunately, it applies across the board. I understand why politicians want to show themselves in the best light and I know their advisors talk them into the family shots, but it is a double-edged sword. As you say, and I happen to agree with you, I have no problem with Hastie in uniform any more than firemen tuning up in the their uniforms at polling booths to support Labor as they have done. I think Hastie seems to be over-sensitive about his religious connections if the by-election was anything to go by, but as we see the media, especially the Murdoch lot, think nothing is off the record when it comes to previous “private” lives so if Hastie, at some point, gets his family/beliefs looked at in some detail, he has really nowhere to go if he thinks this is ‘unfair’. Might care to ask Peter Slipper or others just how much their “privacy” was worth at the time – or Nova Peris currently.

  35. jenauthor Friday, May 27, 2016 at 5:15 pm
    CC reminds me of a blind kid playing quoits – thinks if he keeps tossing those rings out there, something will eventually land.
    Meanwhile the rest of us are cacking with laughter … ahh, so entertaining

    ***********************************************************************

    CC – is the CLASSIC *useful idiot * TROLL – A `troll’ is an individual who enjoys creating conflict on the internet. He creates and fuels arguments which upset other members of the online community.
    Trolls are relevance deprivation disorder nutters who feed off knowing they are upsetting others …

    Trolls feel rewarded by creating the biggest altercation possible. They want to get a reaction out of you. When you fight with a troll, he wins. When you reason with a troll, he wins. Any time that you give a troll attention, he gets exactly what he wants.
    Trolls are basically sociopaths and are delusional and literally believe that what they say becomes truth. You cannot reason with a troll. Attempting to do so only wastes your time and feeds the troll with the attention they are seeking .

  36. I have been accused of negativity in regard to Labor’s prospects. Well, I am by nature a pessimist and a realist. No first-term federal government since Scullin’s has lost after one term. That is the fact of the matter.
    As to my main complaint. We have known for years, months, weeks when the election would be held. Despite that, the Libs had postal vote info mailed out within a couple of days in important seats like Hindmarsh and Adelaide while Labor is still working
    on it.
    Dumb. Dumb. Dumb
    Inexcusabloy dumb.
    Postal votes are the biggest box in any electorate. If Labor loses these seats by a few hundred votes, this stupidity will be the reason why.

  37. http://www.theage.com.au/business/telstra-internet-outage-was-caused-by-a-faulty-software-upgrade-20160527-gp58x0.html

    The fault was fixed by Friday morning, Ms McKenzie said, but Telstra did not anticipate a flow-on effect in which the crash reset customers’ modems.

    “A number of the modems sitting on the end of the network didn’t behave in the way they were supposed to,” she said.

    “So since that time we’ve had to go through pretty much modem by modem, and domain by domain and customer by customer to figure out what their issues were.”

  38. I think PB came to this conclusion?

    The Australian Federal Police investigation of leaks on the progress of the National Broadband Network led to a surge in mentions about the NBN, making it the biggest issue of the week.

    The raids, of the Melbourne office of former communications minister Stephen Conroy and the home of a Labor staffer, were greeted with outrage by Labor.

    The publicity did greater damage to the government, according to iSentia group communications manager Patrick Baume.

    “There was criticism of the raids but it quickly just brought the issue of the NBN back up, timed with the Telstra outages that fed into it a bit,” he said.

    “It was clearly a negative for the government.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-isentia-analysis-shows-nbn-raids-asylum-seekers-and-leadership-dominated-the-media-20160527-gp5nbj.html

  39. As to my main complaint. We have known for years, months, weeks when the election would be held. Despite that, the Libs had postal vote info mailed out within a couple of days in important seats like Hindmarsh and Adelaide while Labor is still working
    on it.

    I am no election expert, but I would have thought that the best time to send out postal votes would be at a period of high engagement, but with still ample time to meet the deadline. Send them out too early, and they will get lost.

  40. AMA’s Brian Owler delivers scathing attack on Coalition government

    Outgoing head of peak medical body calls past two years ‘a period of lost opportunity in health policy’, characterised by lack of consultation

    “Says here that Dutton’s had an arsehole transplant.”

    “Have you read the stop press? The arsehole’s rejected him.”

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