I’ve finally gotten around to updating BludgerTrack with the leadership ratings from Monday’s Newspoll, so the finalised weekly reading of that can be found at the bottom of the post. As well as that, a small number of campaign news snippets to relate:
• The Coalition parties in New South Wales are still yet to resolve the order of their Senate ticket, which is proving problematic with respect to the balance between the Liberals and the Nationals, and competing Liberal factions. Liberal incumbents needing to be accommodated are Connie Fierravanti-Wells, Marise Payne and Arthur Sinodinos, and they are joined by Nationals Senators Fiona Nash and John Williams of the Nationals, for whom inter-party arrangements appear to have secured the second and fifth spot respectively. However, the Centre Right faction of the Liberal Party is also very keen to find a place for newcomer Hollie Hughes, who won top position for the half-Senate ticket at a preselection vote in March, before agreeing to a swap with second-placed Fierravanti-Wells, a member of the hard Right. With a full ticket now required for a double dissolution, Hughes and Fierravanti-Wells are battling for fourth place, with the loser set to be relegated to sixth, with first and third set to go to Payne and Sinodinos. Joe Aston of the Financial Review today reports that Hughes is likely to miss out, with both Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison pushing for Fierravanti-Wells, despite Morrison’s factional alignment with Hughes. However, Sarah Martin of The Australian reported earlier this week that the situation was up in the air because moderates were split between competing desires to honour their alliance with the Centre Right by favouring Hughes, or support the leadership by favouring Fierravanti-Wells. The matter is being determined through a ballot of the party’s state executive conducted by email, the result of which is expected at any tick of the clock.
• The Northern Territory News reports that two candidates have formally declared for the preselection to replace Nova Peris as Labor’s Senate candidate in the Northern Territory: Malarndirri McCarthy, a former ABC journalist and member of the Northern Territory parliament from 2005 to 2012, and Kon Vatksalis, president of the Northern Territory Leukaemia Foundation and a member of the territory parliament from 2001 to 2014. Also considering there options are Marion Scrymgour, a former Deputy Chief Minister and member from 2001 and 2012, and Ursula Raymond, Peris’s chief-of-staff. Fleur Anderson of the Financial Review noted that Scrymgour was “regarded as an unpredictable candidate” because she had sat as an independent for a period in 2009 following a disagreement over government policy concerning remote communities. Katskalis presumably starts from a disadvantage in that all other candidates are indigenous women. The matter will be determined by the party’s chief executive.
• After lingering rather too long on its starting odds of $1.35 for Labor and $3 for the Greens, Sportsbet is now offering $1.50 on the Greens and $2.50 on Labor in David Feeney’s seat of Batman.
trog sorrenson @ #348 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 3:45 pm
They are volunteers to a cause….just like the dummies that are recruited to ISIS.
Whatever the reachtel poll result is, I bet someone will say wait ’till the next poll. 😉
Just Me @305:
Yes, ocean acidification affects the ability of crustaceans, molluscs, etc to lay down the calcium in their shells. The more acid, the less and thinner the shell. Increasing CO2 makes the ocean more acidic (via Carbonic acid).
Corporate_misfit #345 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 3:43 pm
OK Gov. you got my bang to right, I don’t know argumentum ad ignorantiam means either though I can guess. as for the first part of this post been watching a lot of the old Rumpole series.
briefly
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 3:45 pm
What do you call this?:
Sustainable future
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 2:46 pm
Owler savages the Coalition and Dutton in particular. Dutton is, for me , the low-point in ministers, with Brandis inexplicably managing to avoid screwing up for quite some time now.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/27/amas-brian-owler-delivers-scathing-attack-on-coalition-government
Could well be dtt. It was very widely reported. It is a bit like the story that the first Shuttle had the computing power of a HP calculator.
In comparison, we have been using software that only ran on Win XP until a few weeks ago because it was written in the early 1990s. The update came out earlier this year!!!
Is the tide turning for the PM? Nah just Newscorp is exaggerating what has happened this week. It’s hurt Labor’s fortunes in Batman, but that’s about it. They keep repeating over and over about David Feeney. But it definitely hasn’t been as reckless compared to what Barnaby Joyce said about the connection with asylum seekers and live exports which could damage relations with Indoneisa. What also concerning about Joyce’s comments is the seniority of his position, and at times he would become acting Prime Minster.
What Feeney has done is bad for Labor in Batman. In fact he might be now cooked, which he really shouldn’t of been considering a good active MP could have held on despite Greens getting Liberal preferences. But honestly I really think they are clutching at straws repeating Feeney crap at nausea if they think Turnbull has got the momentum.
“Is the tide turning?
The tide against Malcolm Turnbull? Look, it may be too early to say, but events of the past week have definitely lifted his boat.
Let’s start with Labor frontbencher David Feeney, who has quickly become the gift to the Coalition that keeps on giving.
Okay, he forgot about having a $2.3 million house. That was maybe negatively geared, which Labor opposes (except so many of them do it.)
Feeney this week forgot Labor’s policy on school kids. Which came after he forgot having all his money in a family trust, managed by his wife.
In all this forgetting, Feeney has become a symbol of, or perhaps a metaphor for, the ALP’s jumpy policy. We’re for this. No, we’re against it. We’ll do that. Actually, we can’t, so we won’t. We’re for the rich! Also for the battler! Okay, whatever.”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/opinion/federal-election-2016-tide-may-be-turning-for-malcolm-turnbull/news-story/dc3dbcaa962bc9057d0f09f58f2a1b89
compact crank @ #355 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 3:52 pm
You should deal with the substance of the evidence on climate change. …but you won’t.
Interesting how CC dives for distractions (“Bill Shorten looks ill”) when he gets caught doing the Tangney tango with his climate change denialist schtick – again.
briefly
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 3:45 pm
No one credible is denying the planet is warming or that there is an Arrhenius Effect. Given that global air temperatures are well below the models the skeptics quite reasonably question why the models are so wrong and perhaps the sensitivity of temperature to CO2e aren’t as great as the models say they are.
cupidstunt @ #349 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 3:47 pm
2013 is best seen as an aberration.
Labor did abnormally poorly due to the lingering Gillard effect and the error prone desperation of Rudd2.
Labor did win the seat in 2007 & even 2010.
Surely we are due some statistical noise if nothing else?
booleanbach @ #353 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 3:51 pm
The shells of crustaceans are composed of chitin, which is unaffected by weak acids. That is not to say that ocean acidification is going to do them any good.
Mollusks however have a mix of chitin and a form of calcium carbonate in their shells, and are definitely at risk from acidification of the oceans.
“What do you call this?:”
The difference is that the conventional scientific understanding, supported by area specialists, published in mainstream scientific journals through the standard scientific method supports the claim that global warming is happening, and recent warming is primarily anthropogenic through the emission of long-lived greenhouse gases.
Now of course, no one suggests that that means that this science is unquestionable. Many small details are certainly wrong and there is a small, but non-zero chance that significant aspects are wrong. Scientific knowledge is always provisional, subject to revision in the light of future evidence.
But it is the best knowledge we have. The burden of proof is not on those seeking to establish conventional science; that burden has been discharged by scientists.
Against this we have a few qualified climatologists whose interpretations have repeatedly been shown to be flawed in the published literature, the angry keyboards of the Watts and Novas producing completely un-refereed claims, and the overtly political Energy & Environment. You may well consider that evidence to be persuasive; you should be aware that those who inhabit a rational space do not.
I have now well and truly blown my monthly quota of time for dealing with such nonsense so I shall retire in peace.
My sister (a Labor voter) just got back from the US. She said
1. The Americans don’t think Trump is anywhere near as wacky as we find him
2. Trump’s outrageous soundbite comments are all that are shown on Australian TV, but in the US they show him saying a lot more and he’s not as idiotic as he seems.
It’s also possible that the NBN raid has hurt the Libs more than people think. LOTS of people out there believe in conspiracies. They don’t see these sorts of events as accidents.
How Duncan Storrar will spend his $60,000 GoFundMe money
The fundraising campaign was eventually suspended having raised more than $60,000 in a few days.
The organisers of the campaign Nicholas Oliver and Sam Fawcett acknowledged there had been multiple queries about how the money would be managed, and said these were “legitimate questions”.
Today they finally revealed how the funds would be spent.
“After the gobsmacking generosity of the Australian people, Duncan has decided that the money will not be spent on himself.”
The post said the majority of the money will be put into a trust account for his young children’s future high school education. $11,000 will also be given to charity.
Duncan has decided to donate $6000 to The Father Bob Foundation to assist in buying an oven to cook food for the homeless — of which they are in desperate need.
Mr Storrar has also decided to donate $5000 to a Men’s Shed in the rural town where he took refuge when the media storm arose.
“We would like to thank you once again for opening your hearts to someone who dared ask a simple question of his government,” the post said.
“He is still waiting for an answer.”
http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/how-duncan-storrar-will-spend-his-60000-gofundme-money/news-story/aaedbf90b0d7fddc7e007f416010d777
diogenes @ #367 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:03 pm
So getting the Mexicans to build a wall to keep themselves out of the US was just Trump being taken out of context?
I understand that Laboristas here are likely to have a different point of view, but really, if the worst thing that the Greens do to the ALP in this election is to defeat Feeney in Batman, how bad is that? I’m sure most ALP supporters will eventually be able to overcome their grief and come to terms with this…
Martin B
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:02 pm
I dispute that the Scientific Method has been used. There is no control. No double blind tests. There is no steady state equilibrium in a chaotic system that cannot be accurately modeled. Yes, there’s been lot’s of observations. Yes, CO2e is rising. Yes there is an El Nino right now causing higher than normal temperatures but that is a natural cyclical event. But there is no way of testing the hypothesis. Unlike finding the Boson-Higgs particle and gravity waves – this is an unprovable theory – until we can build a climate model that accurately hindcasts the climate and can therefore forecast it.
Diogenes Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:03 pm
My sister (a Labor voter) just got back from the US. She said
1. The Americans don’t think Trump is anywhere near as wacky as we find him
2. Trump’s outrageous soundbite comments are all that are shown on Australian TV, but in the US they show him saying a lot more and he’s not as idiotic as he seems.
************************************************
I like David Lettermans view on the collective thinking :
America is the only country where a significant proportion of the population believes that professional wrestling is real, but the moon landing was faked.
Brian Owler complains that there was no consultation or negotition possible with either Dutton or Ley. This reminds me of the discussion about COAG during the ScoMo-Bowen head-to-head. ScoMo seemed to insist that to produce a discussion paper before the meeting was completely unnecessary. I can’t remember his exact excuse, but it might have included the concept of “sudden brainfarts we discussed.”
I have never in my life organised a meeting of any importance without an agenda and some background papers. Just one A4 sheet would be of benefit. It all gives the impression of poor administration and shouty ministers denying they’re hopeless.
Diogenes
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:03 pm
Now you’re spoiling their preconceived misconceptions.
I would love Trump to become POTUS purely for the Lefty Head Explodiness and the hypocrisy of all those threatening to leave the US if it happens but will end up staying.
don
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:08 pm
No he said that and he’s explained how he would do that – I believe by stopping/taxing remittances to Mexico. Not sure how’d they’d actually do that.
You can have Plibersek too but leave Albo.
Don
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:08 pm
So getting the Mexicans to build a wall to keep themselves out of the US was just Trump being taken out of context?
I think it may be the reverse if Trump is elected…The Mexicans will build the wall to keep the fleeing Americans out…..
Ah, yes – Letterman – another New York Squillionaire Democrat.
corporate_misfit
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:18 pm
Yes, yes – all these lefties threatening to leave – I bet less than 5 do it.
I have no sources, and I can’t recollect where I read it, could be crap, but there was a winge by some yanks that they should not spend so much on foreign aid and spend more on trying to find those on Gilligan’s Island
Compact Crank
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:20 pm
I am actually hoping Trump wins …two terms…..that will ensure that America will no longer be the arrogant economic power it currently is…..it will also end the belief in trickle down economics….
All good things
lizzie
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:12 pm
There’s no point having a meeting when it’s going to be:
AMA – we want more.
Minister – no.
How many times do you want to go through that?
Our kids are great to take shopping because when they get told no if they ask for something extra they know that is the final answer – it is not a negotiation.
Can anyone tell me what the scam is?
You get an unsolicited call, from “Somethingorother Help Desk”. An Indian accent speaking.
They ask you about the “recent car accident” you, or someone in your household have had.
I always hang up at this point, but what is the scam?
We’ve received a dozen or so of these calls over the last year. I assume that they’re fishing (phishing?) for a poor sap who HAS had a car accident in the past little while. When they get one they run some kind of con.
But what is the con?
Corporate
I think it will be canadians building a wall to keep the yankees out.
Compact Crank
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:23 pm
“hen they get told no if they ask for something extra they know that is the final answer – it is not a negotiation.”
Good to see you run your house like a true dictatorship……good on you
If Trump got in and started demanding the US Public Service started acting more like a business that would be a massive productivity boost to the economy to start with. Accountability would be a nice place to start.
First refugees sent to Cambodia under $55m deal have left
The first group of refugees transferred from Nauru to Cambodia under a controversial deal have all left the country — less than a year after arriving.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-27/first-refugees-sent-to-cambodia-under-$55m-deal-have-left/7452542?google_editors_picks=true
Could be a car insurance con of some kind?
Daretotread
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:25 pm
Corporate
I think it will be canadians building a wall to keep the yankees out.
Good Point……Maybe they can find something a bit better….Always found them to be way more sensible then people south of the border
corporate_misfit
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:25 pm
You assume we always say no.
Our kids are happy, well adjusted, academically above average, participate in sports, music, the arts and community activities. Lots of people compliment us on their manners and behavior. They make us immensely proud.
A number of our friends say we are lucky because our kids are so happy and well behaved and don’t argue and bicker or have their heads buried in devices. We aren’t lucky – it’s hard constant work from the very beginning – but very rewarding.
daretotread Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:25 pm
Corporate
I think it will be canadians building a wall to keep the yankees out.
***********************************************
I have friends in Chicago who were so glad when Obama became president that they no longer had to say they were from Toronto when they travelled overseas
Their thoughts on Trump – OH F^#@ – its back to being Canadians again if that F***Head gets to be POTUS
BB
I had that one too. They sould legitimate for a while – give the name of a sensible sounding Sydney Law firm, but when qyestioned cannot answer basic questions.
I had a bit of fun with one. Rang up and said inquiring about the accident you had last year. Car registered at your address. Initially I was a little interested, because my son’s care is here and I though it remotely possible there had been an accident. Asked him what car was affected and where the accident was. He could not answer.
Then I asked him his name. Said it was Shaun McIvor or some such. As this guy clearly had a Chionese accent I burst into laughter and said – you are NOT Shaun McIvor so what is your real name. He said he was really Quan Wong.
I think it is to get access to banking and other personal details.
It’s usually a call centre operating overseas looking to source injury claims for a panel of legal firms. They usually have a contact inside an insurance company who gives them some names of people who’ve had fender benders. They also do cold calls.
They’re hoping someone who has had a very minor accident might have also got some low end I hurt and want to make a claim for it.
Pretty low rent stuff.
This is not good enough, coming from Labor.
Hopefully the Greens can elicit a better outcome. (I know there are those on this blog who maintain they can have no influence, so why should they exist blah blah, but the reality is that they do exist and they do wield influence.)
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/solar-researches-says-coalition-move-on-funding-could-wipe-out-44945
phoenixRED
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:26 pm
First refugees sent to Cambodia under $55m deal have left
Well that kills off the ALP argument about they’ll do it better and resettle them (which they won’t – because lots want to end up in Australia any way they can – it’s not about being safe – it’s about being in Australia.)
BB maybe its something like this:
http://www.fairtrading.nsw.gov.au/ftw/About_us/News_and_events/Media_releases/2014_media_releases/20140406_scammers_blitz_fair_trading.page
^injury
If Clinton gets in I hope she starts demanding the big corporations start acting more like a Public Service – that would be a massive productivity boost to the economy to start with. Accountability would be a nice place to start.
phoenixRED
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 4:31 pm
I have met hundreds, if not thousands of US citizens and none have ever claimed to be Canadians. And I’ve met plenty of Canadians and none of them have I suspected of being Yanks.