I’ve finally gotten around to updating BludgerTrack with the leadership ratings from Monday’s Newspoll, so the finalised weekly reading of that can be found at the bottom of the post. As well as that, a small number of campaign news snippets to relate:
• The Coalition parties in New South Wales are still yet to resolve the order of their Senate ticket, which is proving problematic with respect to the balance between the Liberals and the Nationals, and competing Liberal factions. Liberal incumbents needing to be accommodated are Connie Fierravanti-Wells, Marise Payne and Arthur Sinodinos, and they are joined by Nationals Senators Fiona Nash and John Williams of the Nationals, for whom inter-party arrangements appear to have secured the second and fifth spot respectively. However, the Centre Right faction of the Liberal Party is also very keen to find a place for newcomer Hollie Hughes, who won top position for the half-Senate ticket at a preselection vote in March, before agreeing to a swap with second-placed Fierravanti-Wells, a member of the hard Right. With a full ticket now required for a double dissolution, Hughes and Fierravanti-Wells are battling for fourth place, with the loser set to be relegated to sixth, with first and third set to go to Payne and Sinodinos. Joe Aston of the Financial Review today reports that Hughes is likely to miss out, with both Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison pushing for Fierravanti-Wells, despite Morrison’s factional alignment with Hughes. However, Sarah Martin of The Australian reported earlier this week that the situation was up in the air because moderates were split between competing desires to honour their alliance with the Centre Right by favouring Hughes, or support the leadership by favouring Fierravanti-Wells. The matter is being determined through a ballot of the party’s state executive conducted by email, the result of which is expected at any tick of the clock.
• The Northern Territory News reports that two candidates have formally declared for the preselection to replace Nova Peris as Labor’s Senate candidate in the Northern Territory: Malarndirri McCarthy, a former ABC journalist and member of the Northern Territory parliament from 2005 to 2012, and Kon Vatksalis, president of the Northern Territory Leukaemia Foundation and a member of the territory parliament from 2001 to 2014. Also considering there options are Marion Scrymgour, a former Deputy Chief Minister and member from 2001 and 2012, and Ursula Raymond, Peris’s chief-of-staff. Fleur Anderson of the Financial Review noted that Scrymgour was “regarded as an unpredictable candidate” because she had sat as an independent for a period in 2009 following a disagreement over government policy concerning remote communities. Katskalis presumably starts from a disadvantage in that all other candidates are indigenous women. The matter will be determined by the party’s chief executive.
• After lingering rather too long on its starting odds of $1.35 for Labor and $3 for the Greens, Sportsbet is now offering $1.50 on the Greens and $2.50 on Labor in David Feeney’s seat of Batman.
If Clive’s comments doen’t put an end to this; nothing will:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2015/s4470196.htm
frednk @ #1 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 6:33 am
It’s an issue of media priorities. How important is accountability for a $56 billion project screwed up by the Liberal Party? Nowhere near as important as a junior Labor front bencher that nobody but political tragics has ever heard of not being able to detail policy in another portfolio. Clearly.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
One step closer for Trump – and still no top Republicans will endorse him.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-secures-enough-delegates-to-clinch-the-republican-nomination-20160526-gp4y95.html
Jacqui Lambie nicely describes Cory Bernardi!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/jacqui-lambie-lashes-cory-bernardi-on-kitchen-cabinet-born-with-a-silver-spoon-up-his-rearend-20160526-gp4ybz.html
Waleed Aly comments on the new age of political dissent.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-age-of-dissent-20160526-gp45fc.html
Another study shows that house prices will grow at a slightly higher rate given Labor’s NG policy. No wrecking ball.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-house-price-growth-to-slow-under-labors-negative-gearing-policy-labor-think-tank–20160526-gp4krp.html
Mark Kenny on how minor mistakes can mean a lot, even in a very long campaign.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/dull-campaign-means-minor-mistakes-can-prove-lethal-20160526-gp4b0b.html
Jess Irvine on debt and deficit denial.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/another-day-another-billion-dollars-we-are-deep-in-debt-and-deficits-denial-20160526-gp4bzm.html
Turnbull had no alternative other than to step in and disagree with Barnaby’s stupid live exports/boats remarks.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-steps-in-on-debate-over-barnaby-joyces-asylum-seekers-and-live-exports-comments-20160526-gp470z.html
“View from the Street” with Barnaby Joyce and his boats and bovine stupidity.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-barnaby-joyce-on-border-security-and-bovine-stupidity-20160526-gp4m6a.html
And the list of unhappy health groups grows as the news of the contract with Telstra to manage health records comes out.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/health-consumer-groups-warn-telstra-could-profit-from-cancer-register-20160526-gp4igz.html
Even more on health policy.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/medicare-rebate-cap-threatens-health-of-canberrans-20160523-gp1mt5.html
Section 2 . . .
George Negus has had enough of personality politics.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/05/26/obsession-leadership-stop/
The NBN elephant in the room rained on Malcolm’s parade. From Urban Wronski.
https://urbanwronski.com/2016/05/26/turnbulls-campaign-visit-spoilt-by-nbn-elephant-in-the-room/
Customers rage as Woolworths cut milk prices again.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2016/05/26/woolworths-cut-milk-prices-customers-rage/
Greg Hunt continues to be an embarrassment.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-policy-report-hailed-by-greg-hunt-written-by-former-liberal-candidate-20160524-gp2fvt.html
Oh dear Connie! You’ve upset your party.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/senator-concetta-fierravantiwells-broke-promise-in-hiring-100k-aide-20160526-gp4i6w.html
The Turnbull government acts to hid the mess it has made of the NBN. Surely Labor must have something big up its sleeve for the election campaign on this matter.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/turnbull-government-acts-on-leaks-to-hide-the-mess-of-its-nbn,9030
Ms Sex Appeal has some competition in Lindsay.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-former-liberal-nominates-against-fiona-scott-in-lindsay-20160526-gp4ajw.html
And Nick Xenophon is planning to oust Abbott from Warringah.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/05/25/nick-xenophons-campaign-to-boot-tony-abbott-from-warringah/
Stephen Koukoulas gives us an art lover’s guide to the election campaign.
http://thekouk.com/blog/an-art-lovers-guide-to-the-election.html
Greg Jericho puts the sword to “Jobs and Growth”.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/may/27/no-jobs-and-growth-joy-for-coalition-in-latest-investment-figures
Section 3 . . .
Royal Commission now! Oh, wait . . . .
http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/home-building-industry-plagued-by-dodgy-practices-fair-trading-commissioner-says-20160526-gp48fv.html
This is a worry. A new superbug found in the US.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/the-superbug-that-could-render-antibiotics-useless-just-hit-the-us-20160526-gp4yl3.html
Israel moves further towards open racism with the appointment of a new Defence Minister.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/05/23/with-new-defence-minister-israel-pivots-further-towards-open-racism/
Jennifer Hewett on the increasing use of corporate jargon in politics. Google.
opinion/columnists/opening-the-kimono-on-politics-20160524-gp2um6
Edward Snowden explains why metadata is so important to intelligence and other analysts. Very interesting.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/they-know-when-youre-sleeping-they-know-when-youre-awake-20160526-gp4cei.html
Laura Tingle on the discrediting of Andrew Wilkie all those years ago. Google.
/opinion/columnists/laura-tingle/election-2016-which-minister-tried-to-discredit-andrew-wilkie-iraq-report-20160526-gp4ffi
Our local CFS brigade and many other emergency services were out for hours looking for this bloke. Google.
/news/south-australia/missing-gumeracha-man-jesse-leith-found-at-angas-valley-property-after-40km-trek-and-night-in-caravan/news-story/f2c8001a60d0bb7b836413abc41a4fea
Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir and the transmogrification of the PUP.
MUST SEE! David Pope and Malcolm’s trouble with Barnaby.
Mark Knight and Shorten’s spendometer. (Labor needs to kill this meme off very quickly IMHO).
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/c8d0ba0df8c2b86d059661b0f41b8e8a?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
Bill Leak with Feeney.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/36546bf9a0de2777f8b4e241982efc66
Mark David and a different sort of live export program.
A ripper from David Rowe on a political event horizon.
A short Murdoch organ round up this morning:
The Daily ToiletPaper: ‘Black Hole Bill’ with a spacesuited Shorten being sucked into space, overwhelmed by crime, NRL and celebrity nobodies.
The SmearStralian: Obviously have their RupertGoggles on. Shanahan writes ‘Yesterday was Labor’s worst day ever, and Shorten can’t afford many more like that’. Don’t think its worth jumping the paywall to see his reasoning.
Whilst the Smear’s lead is Shorten ‘Big Fail on Fairness’ for dropping school kids bonus and pension changes. Did they consider rewording as Shorten ‘Big Win on Budget Responsibility’? Yeah, nah.
Cue the memes for the Smear’s weekend congalines of RWNJ commentators.
Morning all thanks for the links BK, much appreciated.
To me the Leadership and PPM figures look ok, in line with a PM and a lesser known opposition leader.
I will always remember 2007 and Shanahan’s faith in the ‘narrowing’.
Having said that, as Labor campaigns well, incumbency and the media are on the government’s side
From Frednk’s link. What a ripe for corrupt dealings set up .
.
“Michael Yabsley resigned ’cause they wouldn’t tell him what money was in the bank, who donated it and what it was being used for. And at the time he was Treasurer, he told me that only Tony Abbott, Peta Credlin and her husband had access to the funds of the party and no-one else knew what was happening.”
Thanks BK.
This government can’t handle the truth.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/27/australia-scrubbed-from-un-climate-change-report-after-government-intervention
Trog
It is a definite difficulty it has.
[Having said that, as Labor campaigns well, incumbency and the media are on the government’s side]
I would be happier if bludgertrack was about 0.5% further along to labor, and obviously 51:49 or better would be good.
But I think the Govt has played a number of its best cards very early, there is a long time to go.
It would be good if Labor could kill off the spendometer meme. I think Streisand attempted something similar once.
Trog
It’s all very well to hide the truth, but they also refuse to act. Disgraceful.
Interesting to contemplate when Labor – and the Coalition – will start to drag out the big guns in the this campaign. Week -4. -3 or -2?
Clearly it will be at the point that voters are fully engaged, but this may not be at the same time in the count down as previous campaigns, due to the extraordinary length of this one.
There was a twitter exchange about “Connie” and lawsuits overheard on a train, very animated staffer yelling on his phone. I think buzzfeed has a scoop coming.
I think nothing much will happen until the last couple of weeks. People are still vaguely of the idea that Turnbull can come good and there will not be great enthusiasm for Bill Shorten and Labor this side of the election.
But by the time people really feel they have to make up their minds, the Coalition will basically stand for nothing but bagging Labor and have achieved nothing but appear to stop boats arriving on Australian shores and dumping a first term PM in record time.
They may like Turnbull more than Shorten but most will decide that Turnbull has been given a fair shot at showing he has some substance and has fallen dramatically short.
Labor will get the votes from voters who are not in love with Labor but who will grudgingly accept that Labor are coherent, that its leadership knows what it is doing and is competent, and that Bill Shorten has the kind of staying power and nous that Howard had for most of his period of office.
Each gaffe will get a moment of fame and then be overtaken by the next one, unless someone does or says something that utterly captures the public mood.
The one thing I would note is that the right wing shock jocks being down on Turnbull’s performance and his purported political leanings is a serious issue. While votes will not be impacted directly, these broadcasts and comments undermine the morale of the Coalition true believers and reduce their willingness to do the hard yards of stepping up to campaign for their candidates. I think the electoral impact of this reluctance can be seriously underestimated.
Craig Emerson @DrCraigEmerson · 9h9 hours ago
Morning bludgers
Ruawake
Could be about this…….
Mark Di Stefano
13h13 hours ago
Mark Di Stefano @MarkDiStef
And also here: Minister sent “threatening” letters to former staff “demanding loyalty” https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/connie-warning-letter?utm_term=.cfLw84kX9#.avdNEAPoO …
Mark Di Stefano
13h13 hours ago
Mark Di Stefano @MarkDiStef
Here’s our latest story in relation to that overheard phone conversation about Senator Fierravanti
It was The Australian that started the Spend-o-meter not Shorten. Happens every election a tally of promises and cuts nothing new.
Rudd tried the blackhole trick in 2013, it played well until the final tally showed he was wrong, the Libs had balanced the books (in theory). Turnbull will face the same problem later in the campaign.
Try again
Mark Di Stefano
13h13 hours ago
Mark Di Stefano @MarkDiStef
Here’s our latest story in relation to that overheard phone conversation about Senator Fierravanti-Wells: https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/minister-hires-liberal-executive-ahead-of-bitter-political-f?utm_term=.dj9kzrlvy#.sv40g481P …
‘It’s an issue of media priorities. How important is accountability for a $56 billion project screwed up by the Liberal Party? Nowhere near as important as a junior Labor front bencher that nobody but political tragics has ever heard of not being able to detail policy in another portfolio. Clearly.’
As far as the SMH and ABC are concerned, Clive never made those comments – it’s all black holes and Clemments, ABC radio news as usual getting its feed directly from LNP headquarters.
Oh, and I don’t think the influence of the mainstream media, especially the Murdoch press, has ever been so overestimated. it’s fading fast as people get their news and information from a multitude of other sources and from friends, family, neighbours and blogs like these – even when they are primarily about non-political things.
Good Morning
Barrie Cassidy calling the Morrison rubbery figures a win for the LNP after that presser.
Really. These guys are keeping score of a hypothetical game which is still being played by rules long abandoned by the voters.
TPOF
Yes. Apparently using spendometre is genius politics. Being an economic laughing stock a cunning plan that worked
It was the Labor Party itself that referred Jamie Clements to the AEC.
Barrie Cassidy calling the Morrison rubbery figures a win for the LNP after that presser.
Let’s see how the Treasurers Debate tonight pans out first, eh?
catmomma
I have stocked up on my popcorn for that one 🙂
climatecouncil: [MEDIA RELEASE] Science censorship allegations extremely troubling https://t.co/tkfDLCuVha #GreatBarrierReef #auspol #reefgate
guytaur: .@barriecassidy Shocked you think slogan beats farce of a presser with Morrison. Big journalist fail if slogan wins over incompetence
My small contribution to election debate
Cassidy just put an article on the Drum about how Labor will struggle to win (mainly because of Queensland where he says Labor may win zero seats now held by conservos.
But Cassidy may know nothing.
In the article he refers to locally popular members who are quitting and includes Bob Baldwin in the list. If this is indicative of the quality of Cassidy’s info then there can be no reliability attached to his speculations.
annajhenderson: OL @billshortenmp says @realDonaldTrump is “barking mad” via Hot 100 in Darwin #ausvotes
guytau
John Howard did an interview the other night on Sky and he said wtte that A Trump Presidency would be bad for the world
victoria
Trump has a way of making for odd bedfellows in commentary.
Adrian,
You are an imaginative little whinger.
The ABC is hiding the Clive Palmer interview in plain sight on their Website.
Can their perfidy be any more apparent.
Bernard Keane
15m15 minutes ago
Bernard Keane @BernardKeane
Great @latingle piece on the “investigation” of the leak of a secret report by the Howard govt ping @JoshFrydenberg http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/laura-tingle/election-2016-which-minister-tried-to-discredit-andrew-wilkie-iraq-report-20160526-gp4ffi …
Bill Shorten threw out the bait last week as well re Trump.
It will be interesting to see if Turnbull and Julie Bishop come running to the defence of Trump.
Bill is just playing games with them.
Cheers.
So howard says trump bad for the world but not his LNP Party?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/political-polling-methods_us_574743d7e4b03ede44143a70?ir=Politics§ion=australia&utm_hp_ref=politics&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed
“How important is accountability for a $56 billion project screwed up by the Liberal Party?”
I am finding it increasingly hard to disagree with the argument that this has been, at least in substantial part, a deliberate botch job to ‘justify’ selling the entire telecommunications system off to the spivocrats.
When Abbott ordered Turnbull to “kill Labor’s NBN”, did Turnbull never for a moment put the benefit to the country above his own political ambition? Then he has the gall to take Innovation as his KPI. (Note I’m using business jargon, which apparently is now a Thing in polliespeak).
A minor correction to the dawn patrol BK, the comment should read
Another study shows that house prices will grow at a slightly lower rate given Labor’s NG policy. No wrecking ball.
There are state by state figured, typically with NG, price growth at 2.5%, without 3.4%.
James Massoloa helpful (for the Liberals) say they could argue ‘under Labor your house value will increase less ‘
The NG policy is a good idea but a risk, it will come down to how well Labor argue their case, so far ok.
Thanks John. I’ll have a stern talk to the sub-editor!
guytaur @ #40 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 8:07 am
Trying again, to make it clear which was my comment and which was Guytaur’s:
guytaur @ #40 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 8:07 am
Blast! CCCP has crashed and burned once again – now preview doesn’t work. In my posts above, it is making MY comments indented instead of the ones I quote!
Musrum!!! …
P1
It was an article about polling reliability. Had everything to do with comparing polling predictions to actual outcomes.
The conclusion of quality counts not the method used confirms why Newspoll and Essential get reported most by media and Morgan less so from outlets that do pay for the polling.
One last time …
guytaur @ #40 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 8:07 am
Polling in the US will continue to be pretty meaningless until Sanders stands aside. Then we might get some insight.
William
Your numbers on the left say 50-50 TPP, but the graph is showing a lead to Labor.