Election minus five weeks and one day

Almost three weeks into the campaign, the Coalition parties in New South Wales are still yet to finalise the order of their Senate ticket, while Labor finds itself with a situation vacant in the Northern Territory.

I’ve finally gotten around to updating BludgerTrack with the leadership ratings from Monday’s Newspoll, so the finalised weekly reading of that can be found at the bottom of the post. As well as that, a small number of campaign news snippets to relate:

• The Coalition parties in New South Wales are still yet to resolve the order of their Senate ticket, which is proving problematic with respect to the balance between the Liberals and the Nationals, and competing Liberal factions. Liberal incumbents needing to be accommodated are Connie Fierravanti-Wells, Marise Payne and Arthur Sinodinos, and they are joined by Nationals Senators Fiona Nash and John Williams of the Nationals, for whom inter-party arrangements appear to have secured the second and fifth spot respectively. However, the Centre Right faction of the Liberal Party is also very keen to find a place for newcomer Hollie Hughes, who won top position for the half-Senate ticket at a preselection vote in March, before agreeing to a swap with second-placed Fierravanti-Wells, a member of the hard Right. With a full ticket now required for a double dissolution, Hughes and Fierravanti-Wells are battling for fourth place, with the loser set to be relegated to sixth, with first and third set to go to Payne and Sinodinos. Joe Aston of the Financial Review today reports that Hughes is likely to miss out, with both Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison pushing for Fierravanti-Wells, despite Morrison’s factional alignment with Hughes. However, Sarah Martin of The Australian reported earlier this week that the situation was up in the air because moderates were split between competing desires to honour their alliance with the Centre Right by favouring Hughes, or support the leadership by favouring Fierravanti-Wells. The matter is being determined through a ballot of the party’s state executive conducted by email, the result of which is expected at any tick of the clock.

• The Northern Territory News reports that two candidates have formally declared for the preselection to replace Nova Peris as Labor’s Senate candidate in the Northern Territory: Malarndirri McCarthy, a former ABC journalist and member of the Northern Territory parliament from 2005 to 2012, and Kon Vatksalis, president of the Northern Territory Leukaemia Foundation and a member of the territory parliament from 2001 to 2014. Also considering there options are Marion Scrymgour, a former Deputy Chief Minister and member from 2001 and 2012, and Ursula Raymond, Peris’s chief-of-staff. Fleur Anderson of the Financial Review noted that Scrymgour was “regarded as an unpredictable candidate” because she had sat as an independent for a period in 2009 following a disagreement over government policy concerning remote communities. Katskalis presumably starts from a disadvantage in that all other candidates are indigenous women. The matter will be determined by the party’s chief executive.

• After lingering rather too long on its starting odds of $1.35 for Labor and $3 for the Greens, Sportsbet is now offering $1.50 on the Greens and $2.50 on Labor in David Feeney’s seat of Batman.

bludgertrack-2016-05-27

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

611 comments on “Election minus five weeks and one day”

Comments Page 1 of 13
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  1. frednk @ #1 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 6:33 am

    If Clive’s comments doen’t put an end to this; nothing will:
    http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2015/s4470196.htm

    It’s an issue of media priorities. How important is accountability for a $56 billion project screwed up by the Liberal Party? Nowhere near as important as a junior Labor front bencher that nobody but political tragics has ever heard of not being able to detail policy in another portfolio. Clearly.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    One step closer for Trump – and still no top Republicans will endorse him.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-secures-enough-delegates-to-clinch-the-republican-nomination-20160526-gp4y95.html
    Jacqui Lambie nicely describes Cory Bernardi!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/jacqui-lambie-lashes-cory-bernardi-on-kitchen-cabinet-born-with-a-silver-spoon-up-his-rearend-20160526-gp4ybz.html
    Waleed Aly comments on the new age of political dissent.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-age-of-dissent-20160526-gp45fc.html
    Another study shows that house prices will grow at a slightly higher rate given Labor’s NG policy. No wrecking ball.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-house-price-growth-to-slow-under-labors-negative-gearing-policy-labor-think-tank–20160526-gp4krp.html
    Mark Kenny on how minor mistakes can mean a lot, even in a very long campaign.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/dull-campaign-means-minor-mistakes-can-prove-lethal-20160526-gp4b0b.html
    Jess Irvine on debt and deficit denial.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/another-day-another-billion-dollars-we-are-deep-in-debt-and-deficits-denial-20160526-gp4bzm.html
    Turnbull had no alternative other than to step in and disagree with Barnaby’s stupid live exports/boats remarks.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-steps-in-on-debate-over-barnaby-joyces-asylum-seekers-and-live-exports-comments-20160526-gp470z.html
    “View from the Street” with Barnaby Joyce and his boats and bovine stupidity.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-barnaby-joyce-on-border-security-and-bovine-stupidity-20160526-gp4m6a.html
    And the list of unhappy health groups grows as the news of the contract with Telstra to manage health records comes out.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/health-consumer-groups-warn-telstra-could-profit-from-cancer-register-20160526-gp4igz.html
    Even more on health policy.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/medicare-rebate-cap-threatens-health-of-canberrans-20160523-gp1mt5.html

  3. Section 2 . . .

    George Negus has had enough of personality politics.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/05/26/obsession-leadership-stop/
    The NBN elephant in the room rained on Malcolm’s parade. From Urban Wronski.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2016/05/26/turnbulls-campaign-visit-spoilt-by-nbn-elephant-in-the-room/
    Customers rage as Woolworths cut milk prices again.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2016/05/26/woolworths-cut-milk-prices-customers-rage/
    Greg Hunt continues to be an embarrassment.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-policy-report-hailed-by-greg-hunt-written-by-former-liberal-candidate-20160524-gp2fvt.html
    Oh dear Connie! You’ve upset your party.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/senator-concetta-fierravantiwells-broke-promise-in-hiring-100k-aide-20160526-gp4i6w.html
    The Turnbull government acts to hid the mess it has made of the NBN. Surely Labor must have something big up its sleeve for the election campaign on this matter.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/turnbull-government-acts-on-leaks-to-hide-the-mess-of-its-nbn,9030
    Ms Sex Appeal has some competition in Lindsay.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-former-liberal-nominates-against-fiona-scott-in-lindsay-20160526-gp4ajw.html
    And Nick Xenophon is planning to oust Abbott from Warringah.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/05/25/nick-xenophons-campaign-to-boot-tony-abbott-from-warringah/
    Stephen Koukoulas gives us an art lover’s guide to the election campaign.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/an-art-lovers-guide-to-the-election.html
    Greg Jericho puts the sword to “Jobs and Growth”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/may/27/no-jobs-and-growth-joy-for-coalition-in-latest-investment-figures

  4. Section 3 . . .

    Royal Commission now! Oh, wait . . . .
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/home-building-industry-plagued-by-dodgy-practices-fair-trading-commissioner-says-20160526-gp48fv.html
    This is a worry. A new superbug found in the US.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/the-superbug-that-could-render-antibiotics-useless-just-hit-the-us-20160526-gp4yl3.html
    Israel moves further towards open racism with the appointment of a new Defence Minister.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/05/23/with-new-defence-minister-israel-pivots-further-towards-open-racism/
    Jennifer Hewett on the increasing use of corporate jargon in politics. Google.
    opinion/columnists/opening-the-kimono-on-politics-20160524-gp2um6
    Edward Snowden explains why metadata is so important to intelligence and other analysts. Very interesting.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/they-know-when-youre-sleeping-they-know-when-youre-awake-20160526-gp4cei.html
    Laura Tingle on the discrediting of Andrew Wilkie all those years ago. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/laura-tingle/election-2016-which-minister-tried-to-discredit-andrew-wilkie-iraq-report-20160526-gp4ffi
    Our local CFS brigade and many other emergency services were out for hours looking for this bloke. Google.
    /news/south-australia/missing-gumeracha-man-jesse-leith-found-at-angas-valley-property-after-40km-trek-and-night-in-caravan/news-story/f2c8001a60d0bb7b836413abc41a4fea

  5. A short Murdoch organ round up this morning:

    The Daily ToiletPaper: ‘Black Hole Bill’ with a spacesuited Shorten being sucked into space, overwhelmed by crime, NRL and celebrity nobodies.

    The SmearStralian: Obviously have their RupertGoggles on. Shanahan writes ‘Yesterday was Labor’s worst day ever, and Shorten can’t afford many more like that’. Don’t think its worth jumping the paywall to see his reasoning.

    Whilst the Smear’s lead is Shorten ‘Big Fail on Fairness’ for dropping school kids bonus and pension changes. Did they consider rewording as Shorten ‘Big Win on Budget Responsibility’? Yeah, nah.

    Cue the memes for the Smear’s weekend congalines of RWNJ commentators.

  6. Morning all thanks for the links BK, much appreciated.
    To me the Leadership and PPM figures look ok, in line with a PM and a lesser known opposition leader.
    I will always remember 2007 and Shanahan’s faith in the ‘narrowing’.
    Having said that, as Labor campaigns well, incumbency and the media are on the government’s side

  7. From Frednk’s link. What a ripe for corrupt dealings set up .
    .
    “Michael Yabsley resigned ’cause they wouldn’t tell him what money was in the bank, who donated it and what it was being used for. And at the time he was Treasurer, he told me that only Tony Abbott, Peta Credlin and her husband had access to the funds of the party and no-one else knew what was happening.”

  8. [Having said that, as Labor campaigns well, incumbency and the media are on the government’s side]

    I would be happier if bludgertrack was about 0.5% further along to labor, and obviously 51:49 or better would be good.

    But I think the Govt has played a number of its best cards very early, there is a long time to go.

  9. It would be good if Labor could kill off the spendometer meme. I think Streisand attempted something similar once.

  10. Interesting to contemplate when Labor – and the Coalition – will start to drag out the big guns in the this campaign. Week -4. -3 or -2?
    Clearly it will be at the point that voters are fully engaged, but this may not be at the same time in the count down as previous campaigns, due to the extraordinary length of this one.

  11. There was a twitter exchange about “Connie” and lawsuits overheard on a train, very animated staffer yelling on his phone. I think buzzfeed has a scoop coming.

  12. I think nothing much will happen until the last couple of weeks. People are still vaguely of the idea that Turnbull can come good and there will not be great enthusiasm for Bill Shorten and Labor this side of the election.

    But by the time people really feel they have to make up their minds, the Coalition will basically stand for nothing but bagging Labor and have achieved nothing but appear to stop boats arriving on Australian shores and dumping a first term PM in record time.

    They may like Turnbull more than Shorten but most will decide that Turnbull has been given a fair shot at showing he has some substance and has fallen dramatically short.

    Labor will get the votes from voters who are not in love with Labor but who will grudgingly accept that Labor are coherent, that its leadership knows what it is doing and is competent, and that Bill Shorten has the kind of staying power and nous that Howard had for most of his period of office.

    Each gaffe will get a moment of fame and then be overtaken by the next one, unless someone does or says something that utterly captures the public mood.

    The one thing I would note is that the right wing shock jocks being down on Turnbull’s performance and his purported political leanings is a serious issue. While votes will not be impacted directly, these broadcasts and comments undermine the morale of the Coalition true believers and reduce their willingness to do the hard yards of stepping up to campaign for their candidates. I think the electoral impact of this reluctance can be seriously underestimated.

  13. Craig Emerson ‏@DrCraigEmerson · 9h9 hours ago

    Craig Emerson Retweeted Tony Windsor

    Greens note:PM Turnbull today revealed he opposed live cattle export suspension when even The Nationals supported it

  14. Morning bludgers

    Ruawake

    Could be about this…….

    Mark Di Stefano
    13h13 hours ago
    Mark Di Stefano ‏@MarkDiStef
    And also here: Minister sent “threatening” letters to former staff “demanding loyalty” https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/connie-warning-letter?utm_term=.cfLw84kX9#.avdNEAPoO

    Mark Di Stefano
    13h13 hours ago
    Mark Di Stefano ‏@MarkDiStef
    Here’s our latest story in relation to that overheard phone conversation about Senator Fierravanti

  15. It was The Australian that started the Spend-o-meter not Shorten. Happens every election a tally of promises and cuts nothing new.

    Rudd tried the blackhole trick in 2013, it played well until the final tally showed he was wrong, the Libs had balanced the books (in theory). Turnbull will face the same problem later in the campaign.

  16. ‘It’s an issue of media priorities. How important is accountability for a $56 billion project screwed up by the Liberal Party? Nowhere near as important as a junior Labor front bencher that nobody but political tragics has ever heard of not being able to detail policy in another portfolio. Clearly.’

    As far as the SMH and ABC are concerned, Clive never made those comments – it’s all black holes and Clemments, ABC radio news as usual getting its feed directly from LNP headquarters.

  17. Oh, and I don’t think the influence of the mainstream media, especially the Murdoch press, has ever been so overestimated. it’s fading fast as people get their news and information from a multitude of other sources and from friends, family, neighbours and blogs like these – even when they are primarily about non-political things.

  18. Barrie Cassidy calling the Morrison rubbery figures a win for the LNP after that presser.

    Really. These guys are keeping score of a hypothetical game which is still being played by rules long abandoned by the voters.

  19. TPOF

    Yes. Apparently using spendometre is genius politics. Being an economic laughing stock a cunning plan that worked

  20. Barrie Cassidy calling the Morrison rubbery figures a win for the LNP after that presser.

    Let’s see how the Treasurers Debate tonight pans out first, eh?

  21. guytaur: .@barriecassidy Shocked you think slogan beats farce of a presser with Morrison. Big journalist fail if slogan wins over incompetence

    My small contribution to election debate

  22. Cassidy just put an article on the Drum about how Labor will struggle to win (mainly because of Queensland where he says Labor may win zero seats now held by conservos.

    But Cassidy may know nothing.

    In the article he refers to locally popular members who are quitting and includes Bob Baldwin in the list. If this is indicative of the quality of Cassidy’s info then there can be no reliability attached to his speculations.

  23. annajhenderson: OL @billshortenmp says @realDonaldTrump is “barking mad” via Hot 100 in Darwin #ausvotes

  24. guytau
    John Howard did an interview the other night on Sky and he said wtte that A Trump Presidency would be bad for the world

  25. Adrian,

    You are an imaginative little whinger.
    The ABC is hiding the Clive Palmer interview in plain sight on their Website.
    Can their perfidy be any more apparent.

  26. Bill Shorten threw out the bait last week as well re Trump.

    It will be interesting to see if Turnbull and Julie Bishop come running to the defence of Trump.

    Bill is just playing games with them.

    Cheers.

  27. As the general election season gets underway, the flood of polls is likely to keep coming in — which means the debate will rage on regarding which polls are credible, which methods are best and why.

    When you take a closer look at the way various polls are conducted, there’s no one method that stands out as inarguably better than all the rest. Some people in the polling industry like to claim that polls done by live interviewers using randomly selected phone numbers are more accurate than surveys that use automated telephone technology or surveys conducted over the Internet. But research shows that’s not necessarily true.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/political-polling-methods_us_574743d7e4b03ede44143a70?ir=Politics&section=australia&utm_hp_ref=politics&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

  28. “How important is accountability for a $56 billion project screwed up by the Liberal Party?”

    I am finding it increasingly hard to disagree with the argument that this has been, at least in substantial part, a deliberate botch job to ‘justify’ selling the entire telecommunications system off to the spivocrats.

  29. When Abbott ordered Turnbull to “kill Labor’s NBN”, did Turnbull never for a moment put the benefit to the country above his own political ambition? Then he has the gall to take Innovation as his KPI. (Note I’m using business jargon, which apparently is now a Thing in polliespeak).

  30. A minor correction to the dawn patrol BK, the comment should read
    Another study shows that house prices will grow at a slightly lower rate given Labor’s NG policy. No wrecking ball.

    There are state by state figured, typically with NG, price growth at 2.5%, without 3.4%.
    James Massoloa helpful (for the Liberals) say they could argue ‘under Labor your house value will increase less ‘
    The NG policy is a good idea but a risk, it will come down to how well Labor argue their case, so far ok.

  31. guytaur @ #40 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 8:07 am

    As the general election season gets underway, the flood of polls is likely to keep coming in — which means the debate will rage on regarding which polls are credible, which methods are best and why.

    Polling in the US will continue to be pretty meaningless until Sanders stands aside. Then we might get some insight.

  32. Trying again, to make it clear which was my comment and which was Guytaur’s:

    guytaur @ #40 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 8:07 am

    As the general election season gets underway, the flood of polls is likely to keep coming in — which means the debate will rage on regarding which polls are credible, which methods are best and why.

    Polling in the US will continue to be pretty meaningless until Sanders stands aside. Then we might get some insight.

  33. Blast! CCCP has crashed and burned once again – now preview doesn’t work. In my posts above, it is making MY comments indented instead of the ones I quote!

    Musrum!!! …

  34. P1

    It was an article about polling reliability. Had everything to do with comparing polling predictions to actual outcomes.

    The conclusion of quality counts not the method used confirms why Newspoll and Essential get reported most by media and Morgan less so from outlets that do pay for the polling.

  35. One last time …

    guytaur @ #40 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 8:07 am

    As the general election season gets underway, the flood of polls is likely to keep coming in — which means the debate will rage on regarding which polls are credible, which methods are best and why.

    Polling in the US will continue to be pretty meaningless until Sanders stands aside. Then we might get some insight.

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