Election minus five weeks and one day

Almost three weeks into the campaign, the Coalition parties in New South Wales are still yet to finalise the order of their Senate ticket, while Labor finds itself with a situation vacant in the Northern Territory.

I’ve finally gotten around to updating BludgerTrack with the leadership ratings from Monday’s Newspoll, so the finalised weekly reading of that can be found at the bottom of the post. As well as that, a small number of campaign news snippets to relate:

• The Coalition parties in New South Wales are still yet to resolve the order of their Senate ticket, which is proving problematic with respect to the balance between the Liberals and the Nationals, and competing Liberal factions. Liberal incumbents needing to be accommodated are Connie Fierravanti-Wells, Marise Payne and Arthur Sinodinos, and they are joined by Nationals Senators Fiona Nash and John Williams of the Nationals, for whom inter-party arrangements appear to have secured the second and fifth spot respectively. However, the Centre Right faction of the Liberal Party is also very keen to find a place for newcomer Hollie Hughes, who won top position for the half-Senate ticket at a preselection vote in March, before agreeing to a swap with second-placed Fierravanti-Wells, a member of the hard Right. With a full ticket now required for a double dissolution, Hughes and Fierravanti-Wells are battling for fourth place, with the loser set to be relegated to sixth, with first and third set to go to Payne and Sinodinos. Joe Aston of the Financial Review today reports that Hughes is likely to miss out, with both Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison pushing for Fierravanti-Wells, despite Morrison’s factional alignment with Hughes. However, Sarah Martin of The Australian reported earlier this week that the situation was up in the air because moderates were split between competing desires to honour their alliance with the Centre Right by favouring Hughes, or support the leadership by favouring Fierravanti-Wells. The matter is being determined through a ballot of the party’s state executive conducted by email, the result of which is expected at any tick of the clock.

• The Northern Territory News reports that two candidates have formally declared for the preselection to replace Nova Peris as Labor’s Senate candidate in the Northern Territory: Malarndirri McCarthy, a former ABC journalist and member of the Northern Territory parliament from 2005 to 2012, and Kon Vatksalis, president of the Northern Territory Leukaemia Foundation and a member of the territory parliament from 2001 to 2014. Also considering there options are Marion Scrymgour, a former Deputy Chief Minister and member from 2001 and 2012, and Ursula Raymond, Peris’s chief-of-staff. Fleur Anderson of the Financial Review noted that Scrymgour was “regarded as an unpredictable candidate” because she had sat as an independent for a period in 2009 following a disagreement over government policy concerning remote communities. Katskalis presumably starts from a disadvantage in that all other candidates are indigenous women. The matter will be determined by the party’s chief executive.

• After lingering rather too long on its starting odds of $1.35 for Labor and $3 for the Greens, Sportsbet is now offering $1.50 on the Greens and $2.50 on Labor in David Feeney’s seat of Batman.

bludgertrack-2016-05-27

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

611 comments on “Election minus five weeks and one day”

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  2. Like I said last night, if Chris Bowen plays it well tonight he can win the argument about the leak of the School Kids Bonus not coming back and the Pension Asset Test changes being kept as Labor being prepared to take the tough decisions when the Mining Boom has ended.

  3. Nope – the preview is ok in each case, but the actual post is wrongly formatted. No doubt the Crikey gerbils have changed something overnight again.

  5. P1

    Last sentence is Newspoll and Essentential get reported most by media and Morgan less so from outlets that do not pay for the polling

  7. Jeez the Liberals have really turned on Noel Pearson since Abbott’s demise and Pearson’s Speech for the Ages at Gough Whitlam’s funeral, with reports on the radio this morning describing Warren Entsch sheeting home blame for the Aurukun School problems directly to Pearson’s cherished model of education! Entsch could have blamed Anastacia Palacsjuk but didn’t. Hmm.

  20. Palmer last night on the decision to sack Martin Parkinson: “it was made much higher up in the lady’s toilet in Canberra” #lateline

    And Tony Jones pretended he didn’t know it referred to Credlin.

  21. Sprocket at 6.57 am:
    [Cue the memes for the Smear’s weekend congalines of RWNJ commentators.]

    Ordinarily I do not get upset with the misuse of language. But I find this misuse utterly unacceptable. A “conga line” is the collective noun for “suck holes”, not what you politely refer to as “RWNJ commentators”. And they are suck holes.

    Referring to them as RW wrongly pretends an ideological purpose derived as a result of their scribbles (which does incidentally support a RW agenda), when in fact there is no teleology behind them than self-interest (hence suck holes).
    Referring to them as NJs generously excuses their veniality.
    Referring to them as commentators pretends some real connectivity between the subject and their comments which the remainder of your otherwise pertinent post reminds us is largely coincidental.

  22. Poor ole GG, now he’s seeing things that aren’t there. I guess years of what you might call habit come into play here.
    A bit like seeing Cardinal Pell’s conscience.

    Mirages can be so seductive.

  23. Speaking of suck holes, AM had virtually no politics on this morning, which was quite refreshing all things considered.

  25. Good to hear Shorten on form this morning.

    Bowen / ScoMo at the NPC , which i dont think i’ll catch live as have non – office stuff to do at work.

    ………….and then Shorten vs Malpractice on Sunday.

    Much fodder for Mondays papers i reckon. Am dubious about the “Yank Presidential” format for Sunday. The more controlled situation with Toolman moderating will suit Malcolm i think…..but both participants had better be a bit wary of Laura Tingle?

    Bill will need to be on top of his game figures wise, (fortuitous the NPC on Friday) and Mal had better have more than waffle to offer in that forum.

  26. Seriously, on ‘balance’. Is it measured within each program, or across the whole ABC? Within TV separate from radio, or not? It would be good to know what they’re doing about it.

  28. Imacca

    Tingle as already written that there’s nothing of substance on either side in this campaign, which doesn’t bode well.

  29. imacca

    My guess is that is why Turnbull agreed to NPC venue not the Shorten QandA challenge. Got to avoid questions from the public. That was a killer for Turnbull in the Sky debate.

  30. [Lizzie

    Its a good question. Deserves a good answer.]

    I actually asked a similar question to AM, but haven’t received an answer.

  32. There’s not much difference between the two parties seems to be a meme that is gathering momentum, and of course it is most damaging to Labor.
    I would have thought that only the willfully ignorant could believe such a thing, so it is surprising to see Ms Tingle advocating such an idea.

  34. adrian @ #82 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 9:38 am

    There’s not much difference between the two parties seems to be a meme that is gathering momentum, and of course it is most damaging to Labor.
    I would have thought that only the willfully ignorant could believe such a thing, so it is surprising to see Ms Tingle advocating such an idea.

    This meme always gets pulled out at some point – generally as its proponents begin to get desperate.

  35. Lizzle – the above relates to MS Surface.

    If using chrome in Win 10 you made also need to make Google your default search engine on chrome by just going to settings.

  37. player one @ #53 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 8:40 am

    Nope – the preview is ok in each case, but the actual post is wrongly formatted. No doubt the Crikey gerbils have changed something overnight again.

    I think that’s the most likely explanation. Version 5.42 has been the latest for a fair while and it’s been working for me.

  38. lizzie

    In my experience, with ABC regional radio, ‘balance’ is giving the exact same time to each of the majors’ candidates. I have been rung up during election campaigns to be asked to come on for an interview because ‘Sophie has had a minute more than you’.

  39. zoomster

    I remember someone wrote an article about it saying it wasn’t the content, just the minutes, making the point that the effect can sometime be quite screwed. (Do I mean screwed?)

  40. I think given all of the things to worry about, the idea that the parties policies are not that different isn’t a big deal, it certainly isn’t in Labor or the Libs interests.
    And in this case it isn’t true.

  42. “But Cassidy may know nothing” Barry Cassidy has a reputation as one of the least aware members of the CPG. He’s often about 3 weeks behind when something happens. A waste of tax money.

  43. “Tingle as already written that there’s nothing of substance on either side in this campaign,”

    ..I don’t read that as: ‘both sides are the same’ ..ALP will not make it’s BIG announcements until much closer to the election, so journos just treading water during this ‘phoney war’ phase of the campaign..

  45. [the idea that the parties policies are not that different isn’t a big deal, it certainly isn’t in Labor or the Libs interests.]
    I think it is a fantastic outcome for labor, if Shorten cant convince people that they should prefer him over Malcolm when all other things are equal he doesn’t deserve to win. They’ve already put a lot of excellent work into framing Mal as a tax dodging friend of the super wealthy, the need to do some more work on how incompetent he is (NBN and Shorten should have a couple of Gretch jokes ready to roll on Sunday).

  46. Whilst working last night passed Preston station to take in for the first time a big billboard with David Feeney beaming out towards the main drag of St Georges Road at Preston, Victoria and its surrounding. (Forget the Kor flute, Feeny is about 100 times real life)

    The adjoining Billboard (Same size as Feeny’s) orientated along Murray road, Preston Victoria has an ad for HockingStuart (real estate agents here) with motto “real estate is our world”. HockingStuart sign solid red with white writing

    Talk about real life resembling the headlines. It is a wonder the MSM haven’t picked it up. Oopppppss !!!, When you are as important as they are you do not use public transport.

    One would have thought the party would have tried something to change this or it is an indication of how important these sites must be to them to suffer this small indignity or Feeney truly has gone feral

    Guss what the GG has done a piece on it http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-feeney-goes-rogue-in-ad-all-about-him/news-story/5dba698a867b2b4b988dec83f6eb3b08?nk=9e035c9945c723fd6e4d7852097ca8fb-1464308864

    Obviously someone (Rick Wallace) was not to active is seeing what was on the back of the sign. The work must have been done for him as working for the GG he is toooooooo important to travel on public transport.

  47. Interesting program on ABC RNLife Matters this morning.

    (Warning for the sensitive: some views were expressed that all three major parties are all the same)

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/lifematters/digital-generation-goes-to-the-polls/7450834

    The so-called ‘digital natives’ – those who grew up with the internet, emails, mobile phones and a media saturated world – will be going to the poll for the first time at this year’s Federal Election.

    But what have any of the major parties got to offer them?

    What do the major parties even know about them?

    And what do these digital-savvy voters have to say about it?

  48. frednk
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 6:33 am

    1. Palmer has as much credibility as Thomson.
    2. Most people don’t give a fat rat’s clacker for internal party issues except leadership instability.
    3. The ABC continue to show their anti-coalition bias by giving this buffoon a national soap box to sledge the Liberal Party.

  49. What needs to be factored into electoral strategies, including the timing of policy announcements, is the huge number of voters who vote early.

    Early voting commences 14 June.

  50. Lol Cranky…

    You mean that Palmer has much credibility as LNP he was one of yours, just like Pauline Hanson….

    Not to mention Murdoch and Gina… Telstra.. etc

    The worst of the worst…

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