Election minus five weeks and one day

Almost three weeks into the campaign, the Coalition parties in New South Wales are still yet to finalise the order of their Senate ticket, while Labor finds itself with a situation vacant in the Northern Territory.

I’ve finally gotten around to updating BludgerTrack with the leadership ratings from Monday’s Newspoll, so the finalised weekly reading of that can be found at the bottom of the post. As well as that, a small number of campaign news snippets to relate:

• The Coalition parties in New South Wales are still yet to resolve the order of their Senate ticket, which is proving problematic with respect to the balance between the Liberals and the Nationals, and competing Liberal factions. Liberal incumbents needing to be accommodated are Connie Fierravanti-Wells, Marise Payne and Arthur Sinodinos, and they are joined by Nationals Senators Fiona Nash and John Williams of the Nationals, for whom inter-party arrangements appear to have secured the second and fifth spot respectively. However, the Centre Right faction of the Liberal Party is also very keen to find a place for newcomer Hollie Hughes, who won top position for the half-Senate ticket at a preselection vote in March, before agreeing to a swap with second-placed Fierravanti-Wells, a member of the hard Right. With a full ticket now required for a double dissolution, Hughes and Fierravanti-Wells are battling for fourth place, with the loser set to be relegated to sixth, with first and third set to go to Payne and Sinodinos. Joe Aston of the Financial Review today reports that Hughes is likely to miss out, with both Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison pushing for Fierravanti-Wells, despite Morrison’s factional alignment with Hughes. However, Sarah Martin of The Australian reported earlier this week that the situation was up in the air because moderates were split between competing desires to honour their alliance with the Centre Right by favouring Hughes, or support the leadership by favouring Fierravanti-Wells. The matter is being determined through a ballot of the party’s state executive conducted by email, the result of which is expected at any tick of the clock.

• The Northern Territory News reports that two candidates have formally declared for the preselection to replace Nova Peris as Labor’s Senate candidate in the Northern Territory: Malarndirri McCarthy, a former ABC journalist and member of the Northern Territory parliament from 2005 to 2012, and Kon Vatksalis, president of the Northern Territory Leukaemia Foundation and a member of the territory parliament from 2001 to 2014. Also considering there options are Marion Scrymgour, a former Deputy Chief Minister and member from 2001 and 2012, and Ursula Raymond, Peris’s chief-of-staff. Fleur Anderson of the Financial Review noted that Scrymgour was “regarded as an unpredictable candidate” because she had sat as an independent for a period in 2009 following a disagreement over government policy concerning remote communities. Katskalis presumably starts from a disadvantage in that all other candidates are indigenous women. The matter will be determined by the party’s chief executive.

• After lingering rather too long on its starting odds of $1.35 for Labor and $3 for the Greens, Sportsbet is now offering $1.50 on the Greens and $2.50 on Labor in David Feeney’s seat of Batman.

bludgertrack-2016-05-27

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

611 comments on “Election minus five weeks and one day”

Comments Page 10 of 13
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  1. “The Greens mightn’t even need Liberal preferences to win Batman, Feeney is such a clusterfuck that even I could beat him.”

    Also predictions are the Greens will gain Fremantle, Higgins, Sydney, Grayndyler, Brisbane, Griffith, Wills, Melbourne Port, Ryan, and Richmond. Including the seat of Melbourne they will get 11 seats in the house of reps, and under a Labor government Richard Di Natalie will be health spokesperson and Lee Rhiannon will be treasurer. Greens should win four senate seats each in Tasmanisa, Victoria, and WA, and will most likely atleast hold three in Queensland, NSW, South Australia. This is has been predicted by over enthusiastic Green supporters and right wing columnists in Newscorp who want to stir trouble.

  2. toorak toff @ #446 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 5:21 pm

    I have been accused of negativity in regard to Labor’s prospects. Well, I am by nature a pessimist and a realist. No first-term federal government since Scullin’s has lost after one term. That is the fact of the matter.
    —

    You probably drive staring intently into the rear vision mirror.

  3. Yes TT we don’t even know who all the candidates are yet, and the Commish won’t be able to print and post ballot papers for another couple of weeks. Anyway, why worry about not getting PV applications from the ALP? Use the one you get from the Libs – send it back at their expense, let them mark you down as someone who’s probably voting for them, then when you get the papers from the AEC vote as you meant to do from the beginning and let the Libs wonder why they do less well on the postals than they expected.
    Jack Machiavelli

  5. Looking back?
    The last Labor government lost its majority after one term.
    And the last Coalition government lost the two-party preferred vote.

  6. Toorak Toff,
    Pessimism gets tedious.
    When you think of team effort, the guy finding fault with things isn’t very useful. You are probably right about the postal stuff, but what is done is done. No point harping on about how dumb it is.

  7. The Libs would have wasted squillions in return postage for postal vote applications, I sent mine back filled in with crud just for them. 🙂

  8. seen the current pics on the oz site a happy smiling bill with a baby croc and malcontent (FIZZA) turdbull looks like he’s about to give someone some oral.
    close your mouth mal maybe later i’ll be looking for it

  9. Toorak Toff, nothing unprecedented ever happened in history … until it happened for the first time. (Or in this case, the second time.)

  10. The Channel 7 tweets about Reachtel – ‘wow’, ‘could change course of federal election’ – are probably a furphy, but on the surface don’t indicate good news for Malcolm.

  11. Cassidy just put an article on the Drum about how Labor will struggle to win (mainly because of Queensland where he says Labor may win zero seats now held by conservos.

    I seem to remember the same thing being said in 2007. From memory they won about ten. (although I’m not suggesting they will win anywhere near that many this time).

  12. John Hewson: https://theconversation.com/accusations-and-slogans-reduce-treasurers-debate-to-a-yawn-60113

    I haven’t fallen asleep during the day for decades, but I came pretty close today watching the Treasurers’ debate between Scott Morrison and Chris Bowen on the major issue of the election campaign – economic management.
    ::::
    My problem was that I was looking to hear “reality” as to our current and prospective economic circumstances, prospects and challenges, and for policy “substance” rather than “spin”. They never came close – just more of the “same old, same old” accusations and slogans.
    ::::::
    Given the magnitude and urgency of the challenge to create jobs and growth, I was staggered that the words “climate change” were not mentioned at all in the debate, which is particularly disturbing when industries such as renewable energy and alternative technologies are probably the most “shovel ready” to deliver significant jobs and growth./

  14. Actually Rua, I have heard that some naughty people stick the Libs’ replied-paid cover to a brick and put it in the parcel post. But to actually advocate doing that would be childish. Speaking of childish, have others noticed that CC’s torrent of jibes seems to start each day after the childrens’ shows have finished on TV and then stop at about kiddies’ bedtime? Hmmm?

  18. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-27/wa-property-developer-donation-ban-unlikely/7454660

    Western Australia’s major political parties have ruled out banning political donations from property developers, following the lead of New South Wales.
    ::::
    While acknowledging the influence of donors — including property developers — was a potential problem, there was no enthusiasm from either side of politics for a blanket ban on donations from property developers.

    Following the political donation scandal which embroiled the Liberal Party in New South Wales, that state banned property developers from donating to political parties.

  21. Question
    Friday, May 27, 2016 at 5:49 pm
    CH7 Reachtel “A shock in store for Malcolm Trunbull”.

    Where did that come from? From a channel 7 promo?

  23. 7 News Sydney ‏@7NewsSydney 4m4 minutes ago
    7 News at 6pm with @melissadoyle: A shock in store for Malcolm Turnbull in an exclusive 7 News poll. #7News

  25. Postal vote solicitations are also a good opportunity to provide your local candidate with a few pointed criticisms at their reply paid expense, which is rather generous of them.

  33. CG
    In a few minutes we will know. I’m hoping Turnbull is getting marked down on Better PM as well. 3 word slogans…

  35. Jack A Randa: Exactly what I do. I use the Lib postal vote service, costing them time a money. But thousands of others are recorded by the Libs and receive their voting info. Labor misses out.

  37. Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 33s34 seconds ago
    RechTel is 52-48 to Labor…but in the Coalition’s favour in key marginals. If you don’t wanna wait a few more minutes for it to go to air.

  39. I agree with TT on the postal votes. I read that the AEC is expecting 40% of voters to prepoll/postal vote. You want to get them out early.
    Incidentally, I was driving in the Sturt electorate today and Labor are running dead there. There were oodles of Pyne corflutes, almost as many Mr X Sturt candidate (can’t remember name), plenty of Greens and Bob Day but bugger all Labor.

  40. A shock in store for Malcolm Turnbull in an exclusive 7 News poll.

    Hardly bad news for Mal if Coal winning in the marginals.

  42. Corangamite results

    The poll put Labor’s primary vote at 33.3%, or 36.5% when undecided voters, almost 10% of the total, were asked which way they were leaning. The Coalition’s primary vote was 38% or (41% after the undecideds were prompted). The Greens were on 8.8% (9.6% after prompting) and the Nick Xenophon Team was on 3.5% (4.3% after prompting).

  46. How many First Term Federal Governments have knifed the PM who won the Election and then subsequently won a majority in the HoR?

  49. Sounds like a satisfaction rating tumble for Turnbull perhaps? Here’s hoping,, I haven’t been liking the look of that plateau in bludgertrack.

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