I’ve finally gotten around to updating BludgerTrack with the leadership ratings from Monday’s Newspoll, so the finalised weekly reading of that can be found at the bottom of the post. As well as that, a small number of campaign news snippets to relate:
• The Coalition parties in New South Wales are still yet to resolve the order of their Senate ticket, which is proving problematic with respect to the balance between the Liberals and the Nationals, and competing Liberal factions. Liberal incumbents needing to be accommodated are Connie Fierravanti-Wells, Marise Payne and Arthur Sinodinos, and they are joined by Nationals Senators Fiona Nash and John Williams of the Nationals, for whom inter-party arrangements appear to have secured the second and fifth spot respectively. However, the Centre Right faction of the Liberal Party is also very keen to find a place for newcomer Hollie Hughes, who won top position for the half-Senate ticket at a preselection vote in March, before agreeing to a swap with second-placed Fierravanti-Wells, a member of the hard Right. With a full ticket now required for a double dissolution, Hughes and Fierravanti-Wells are battling for fourth place, with the loser set to be relegated to sixth, with first and third set to go to Payne and Sinodinos. Joe Aston of the Financial Review today reports that Hughes is likely to miss out, with both Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison pushing for Fierravanti-Wells, despite Morrison’s factional alignment with Hughes. However, Sarah Martin of The Australian reported earlier this week that the situation was up in the air because moderates were split between competing desires to honour their alliance with the Centre Right by favouring Hughes, or support the leadership by favouring Fierravanti-Wells. The matter is being determined through a ballot of the party’s state executive conducted by email, the result of which is expected at any tick of the clock.
• The Northern Territory News reports that two candidates have formally declared for the preselection to replace Nova Peris as Labor’s Senate candidate in the Northern Territory: Malarndirri McCarthy, a former ABC journalist and member of the Northern Territory parliament from 2005 to 2012, and Kon Vatksalis, president of the Northern Territory Leukaemia Foundation and a member of the territory parliament from 2001 to 2014. Also considering there options are Marion Scrymgour, a former Deputy Chief Minister and member from 2001 and 2012, and Ursula Raymond, Peris’s chief-of-staff. Fleur Anderson of the Financial Review noted that Scrymgour was “regarded as an unpredictable candidate” because she had sat as an independent for a period in 2009 following a disagreement over government policy concerning remote communities. Katskalis presumably starts from a disadvantage in that all other candidates are indigenous women. The matter will be determined by the party’s chief executive.
• After lingering rather too long on its starting odds of $1.35 for Labor and $3 for the Greens, Sportsbet is now offering $1.50 on the Greens and $2.50 on Labor in David Feeney’s seat of Batman.
My 6:06 is the official headline BTW.
I see a solitary top hat on the edge of a black hole with no sign of its previous owner.
Ah seat polling, my mistake!
So that’s a pretty radical jump. Isn’t it?
52-48 to labor
Poor Malcolm still sliding towards his black hole
preferred pm 55 to 45 to mal gap closing
Riley had the Trump stuff… with a quote from Turnbull wtte
“Imagine if someone from the US said that about one of our politicians?”
I thought “Riley is going to cut to Barnaby”…
Nup… cut to Abbott 🙂
Who was saying Morgan was an aberration?
The Fibs will be shitting their pants sooner rather than later. Cue Abbott.
warrenpeace @ #463 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 5:48 pm
……………………………………………………………….
Cassidy kept calling abbott ‘having a good week’ over and over, right up until his own party knifed him.
Some “Insider”.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 6m6 minutes ago
#ReachTEL Poll Seat of Corangamite 2 Party Preferred: LIB 54 (+0.1 from 2013) ALP 46 (-0.1) #ausvotes
“wholly imported from the US.”
See what I mean?
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/27/aurukun-imported-syllabus-partly-to-blame-for-school-closure-says-former-principal
Big shift from the last 50:50.
Here is the 7 News film clip on teh campaign & ReachTEL, attached to this tweet.
https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/736107226243305472
Cassidy is a total fool. Nothing else needs be said.
ru
Agree. There must be about 10% “others”. Between Labor, Lib, Gr and X the total including leaners only gets to about 90%. Giving X at 50:50 and Greens 80:20, I can’t see how enough others can get to 54.
Corangamite is concerning. If the swing isn’t on in the marginals it isn’t on. Could this be another BCC? Or at worst, Ed Miliband?
Good evening all,
I firstly have to point out I am a complete amateur so saying that,
The primary votes reported for Corangimite after undecideds are pushed to nominate a party appear to result in a 50/50 2PP split.
More than happy to stand corrected.
The primary votes for the national poll will be interesting.
Cheers.
Is that the first non-Morgan 52 of the Malcolm months?
Not counting chickens, but yet to see any evidence that my numerous predictions of Turnbull turning out to be a dud and Labor winning the election are in danger.
Diogenes,
You beat me to it.
Cheers.
burgey @ #488 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 6:01 pm
………………………………………………………
Coorey writes that the tories ‘won the talking points’.
Its reads like a menzies house press statement.
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/black-holes-billions-and-boats-coalition-ahead-on-talking-points-20160526-gp4u4m
So the school curriculum was what caused mothers to have stand up fist fights in the street while being filmed with Police watching on.
OK.
Sorry, I exaggerate
Reachtel 21st January Lib 55 Lab 45 Reachtel 27th May Lib 48 Lab 52 How the mighty have fallen in only 4 months. Some sort of record?
Based on the last few weeks of campaigning the ReachTel national poll makes sense but the Corangamite poll does not. Wasn’t there commentary earlier in the week from ALP people saying that they were very confident that they would win Corangamite? How the Libs get 54% 2pp from 41% Primary vote is also very questionable.
Seth
Friday, May 27, 2016 at 6:18 pm
Comparing Billion Dollar Bill to Miliband is verboten here.
Ben Eltham @beneltham · 4h4 hours ago
Latest ABS industry data shows employment in “Arts and Recreation” has fallen 7.4% or 16k jobs under the Coalition
Ben Eltham @beneltham · 4h4 hours ago
Latest ABS industry data shows employment in “Arts and Recreation” has fallen 7.4% or 16k jobs under the Coalition
Ben Eltham @beneltham · 4h4 hours ago
Latest ABS industry data shows employment in “Arts and Recreation” has fallen 7.4% or 16k jobs under the Coalition
Ooooh. Sorry.
If the guardian have the corangamite figures correct there has been a 7 point primary swing against the libs.
So, 52 /48 and the poll only covers 1 marginal?
I’ll take that at this stage of the campaign.
Moving from ALP in the hunt to win this, to, DAMN but this contestable!!
Be afraid Malcom, very afraid. Shorten is on form, and if you bomb out on Sunday night, in a format that should suit you, then your troops may start looking at saving the furniture.
Dave
I thought Coorey had more sense than that. Shouting and gabbling fast doesn’t equate to ‘winning’.
ReachTEL poll
TPP L/NP 48 (-2) ALP 52 (+2)
Primaries LIB 37.6, NAT 3.5, ALP 36.5, GRN 9.6, NXT 4.3. OTH 8.5
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-26may2016
Corangamite Poll – 26 May 2016
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-corangamite-poll-26may2016
Loch Lomond time 🙂
The Australian Flag is racist, apparently. It must have posted the wrong thing on the interwebs.
Simon Katich @ 2:19pm
Haha.
Just like Clinton I have decided that it is best to ignore Sanders.
His frolic of ego is now just sad.
He has lost, lost badly and will be remembered as a loser.
Despite his silly followers best efforts in hash-tagging and Facebook liking their way to victory.
His so called revolution was always nothing but an ego stroking exercise by an irrelevant nobody who has spent 40 odd years on the public teat without achieving anything.
Cheered on by his support group consisting mainly of sexist and racist college bros looking for a free tuition in exchange for a $27 donation, anarchist morons who brought their failed Occupy Wall Street and Black Lives Matters tactics along for their latest edition of ‘F@#K America, F@#K capitalism and F@#K white people’ plus a cohort of extremely privileged, wealthy and pretty much washed up celebrities who failed to learn the lesson of 2000 and their disastrous and misguided support for Nader.
No, Sanders is now just a footnote in history.
Clinton will give his agenda the respect that he has given to her the last few months. None.
My only regret will be not seeing Sanders torn to shreds by the Republican smear machine.
He has been able to sail by without any serious criticism because both Clinton and the republicans always knew that he was just a bit player (despite what the media would have you believe).
It would of been interesting to see Sanders ability to cope with constant personal, malicious and factually wrong attacks that Clinton has endured for 25 years.
Perhaps he would of been able to withstand the attacks but I very much doubt it with a record that includes
-not having a job until he was 40,
-never having a job outside of political office,
-not paying child support until his child was 11,
-praising communist shit holes like Venezuela
-honeymooning in the ‘fatherland’ Russia,
-a series of perverted rape fantasy fiction that would turn any respecting woman off,
-an inability to release tax returns for the last decade as every other presidential contestant has done except Trump (and Sanders)
-His wifes shonky dealings which resulted in a bankrupt university and a 200 grand payout in her own pocket.
As I said on super Tuesday Clinton has won.
Clinton will be president.
Sanders should seriously consider how he wishes to be remembered and throw his support behind the next commander-in-chief while she is still willing to give him the time of day.
Better PM: Reachtel 21st January Turnbull 81 Shorten 19. Reachtel 27th May Turnbull 55 Shorten 45.
I stand corrected in relation to my last post. The ReachTel Figures have the Libs on 45.7% primary vote in Corangamite which makes more sense of a 54/46 figure.
Still am surprised that the Libs have that big a lead in Corangamite so I would be wary with those figures.
lizzie @ #531 Friday, May 27, 2016 at 6:24 pm
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Lizzie – he seems to mostly find in favour of the tories in most circumstances from my observation over quite a few years.
Any ‘win’ he calls for labor always has a backhander of some sort.
Leroy,
Thanks for the primary votes.
Once again Ai am a complete amateur but would not the 2PP equate to 50/5o or thereabouts ?
Is the 2PP in both the national and Corangamite polls respondent allocated rather than last election preference flow ?
Cheers.
The figures for Corangamite are wrong.
Primary are Lib 45.7, Lab 25.8, Gr 14
Labor owned on those figures.
Who cares about the marginal. Even if it’s accurate (huge if) every marginal is different, so it’s meaningless. It’s the national vote that counts.
I bet all of this concentration on who’s “talking points” are better, yada yada are entirely irrelevant. At a subliminal level, people see Malcolm out on the hustings, meeting real people, and realise he’s like a pork chop in a synagogue. Shorten is very different.
Seems seat based polling is favoring Coalition as in 2013.
CC the distraction is all you have – no policies, no themes, no record, no vision, no nothing.
If the coalition won 52-48 ish in 2013, how can Labor be winning 52-48 and still be behind?
GK,
It must be difficult to get a good sample in a single seat. A good sample is 1000.
Waiting for “new thread”.
So -7.4 satisfaction rating for Turnbull and -7.8 for Shorten.
Kevin,
At this point in the campaign it is all about the vibe and a 52/48 puts more pressure on the lib campaign than the labor campaign ( obviously) and more questions for the libs than labor.
Looks good in the media etc and people may look at labor more now which is good.
As well, it does give the MSM a one finger salute which is always good.
Cheers.
On the national poll, can anyone see how those primaries get to 52% for Labor from a 36.5% primary?
Cupid,
If the ALP get 52 on election night they will win.
On Labors side.
It’s the trend my friend, the trend is our friend.
On the Libs side, Don’t panic don’t panic as they run around like a bunch of headless chooks