The Australian reports the third Newspoll conducted under Galaxy’s auspices gives Labor a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the first two polls. Both major parties are at 39% on the primary vote, which is down one in the Coalition’s case and steady in Labor’s, while the Greens are up a point to 13%. Tony Abbott is steady at 33% approval and up one on disapproval to 61%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 29% and down two to 57%. There is a 38-38 tie on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1727.
UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Later in the day than usual, but Morgan has kept true to fortnightly form with its face-to-face plus SMS series, which has the Coalition at its lowest ebb since the February leadership spill with a primary vote of 36.5%, down 2.5% on last time. Labor is up 1.5% to 37% and the Greens have gained another half a point on last fortnight’s peak to reach 15.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, this reads as a blowout from 54-46 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago to 57-43, although the effect on previous election preferences is more modest – from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2930.
UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average has both major parties up a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 39% – with the Greens down one to 11%, and two-party preferred steady at 53-47. The monthly personal ratings suggest both leaders have bottomed out, with Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 53%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 29% and steady on 52%. Abbott scores better on preferred prime minister than elsewhere, coming out 36-32 ahead, compared with 37-30 a month ago. Other questions find 66% support for Bronwyn Bishop’s immediate resignation from parliament with 18% believing she should remain; 29% believing that booing of Adam Goodes was racist, compared with 45% for not racist; and 54% disapproval of a cut in Sunday penalty rates, compared with 32% approval.
Kevin
I note that you have Labor at 53.4 in your latest round up. What is the highest you have had them at so far, presumably some time around February this year?
sprocket @ 2250
I was intrigued by the headline ‘rat runs chaos’ on the front page. I couldn’t read the fine print, but was it about the Liberal party policy on marriage equality run by Abbott?
TPOF,
Yeah me, Vladimir and George have been great mates 4eva!
fess
[Except polling of the general population shows a majority of respondents favour legal SSM. They can’t all be gay.]
My comments aren’t related to support for SSM at all. I was trying to work out what % of the population knew someone well who would be affected by the legality of SSM.
WP@2240: Um. No. However there is a pretty good correlation between non-reproducing (i.e. post-menopausal – we are one of the few species with decades of post-reproductive life) women and infant survival, early development and educational persistence. The same is not true for non-reproductive males – probably because it’s easy to sow and harder to reap.
[Tomorrow’s front page of the HeraldSun might provide a clue..]
It’s an old story which naive organisations like the ABC fall for every time. When Tories can’t manage a country they like to distract by bombing darkies.
Too cruel
Jess Jonassen LBW for 99 on debut against the poms
http://www.cambridge.org/au/academic/subjects/life-sciences/animal-behaviour/homosexual-behaviour-animals-evolutionary-perspective
Abstract:
Behavioural observations from both the field and captivity indicate that same-sex sexual interactions are widespread throughout the animal kingdom, and occur quite frequently in certain non-human species. Proximate studies of these phenomena have yielded important insights into genetic, hormonal and neural correlates. In contrast, there has been a relative paucity of research on the evolutionary aspects. Homosexual Behaviour in Animals is a 2006 text which seeks to redress this imbalance by exploring animal same-sex sexual behaviour from an evolutionary perspective. Contributions focus on animals that routinely engage in homosexual behaviour and include birds, dolphin, deer, bison and cats, as well as monkeys and apes, such as macaques, gorillas and bonobos. A final chapter looks at human primates. This book will appeal to graduate students and researchers in evolutionary biology, biological anthropology, zoology, evolutionary psychology, animal behaviour and anyone interested in the current state of knowledge in this area of behavioural studies.
If Abbott had pushed for the conscience vote in the party room, would it have succeeded?
If Abbott had pushed for the conscience vote in the party room, would he be a backbencher by Friday?
Is this 1 person stopping 30 odd people from voting with their conscience, in order to stop 40 odd other people voting him out?
Dio:
Oh. You weren’t clear on that from the outset.
TPOF,
Apparently, there were never ever any traffic problems under previous Governments and that the strange but quirky appearance of jams and the occaisional gridlock is all the current Labor Government’s fault.
I know anecdote is not information. However I used to drive from Greensborough to South melbeourne every day for work back in the 80s and 90s. Used to take about an hour. I recently had the need to do the same journey at the same time of day. Took me about an hour.
[2242
Greensborough Growler
So, JD, you have my permission to go on with your nonsense for as long as you can draw breath. However, don’t expect me to take you seriously.]
GG, you have my permission to continue being a precious petal with an inflated impression of your own intelligence.
Darn@2251
I keep a record of the end-of-week reading each week; I don’t always record the ups and downs through the week.
The highest end-of-week reading for Labor was 55.8 at the end of the second week in February.
[ shea mcduff
Posted Wednesday, August 12, 2015 at 9:36 pm | Permalink
We have ‘gay’ birds that reside at our property.
White-winged Chough.
]
I was thinking about Kevin Bonham post. How many of us have maiden antes; what they contributed to family life and what it all really meant in the days before contraceptives. I think Kevin might have made a very insightful post.
GG @ 2261
Ah, so that’s it. I rather preferred my version. It certainly had as much to do with reality as anything actually printed in a Murdoch rag.
Such an unruly fuss on account of these wretched homosexuals.
JD,
I have opinions and am not afraid to use them.
BTW, have I told you, you make me smile!
sprocket 2250
Typical Conservative trick when in deep dung unleash the gods of war.
@MikeCarlton01: Here’s one for the wealthy and successful @TurnbullMalcolm as he ponders his next move: King James Bible, Mark 8.xxxvi.
TPOF
The “rat runners” are people taking short cuts to avoid Hoddle St traffic, causing gridlock elsewhere. Now if only they had a EastWest Tunnel 🙂
Sorry aunts
[ but surely Connie FW would take the palm. ]
I’m curious where she gets her silent majority thing from regarding polling? wishfull thinking?
But then again, being a RWNjobbie style Lib, with their long term polling deficit, she probably very much wants to believe that polling is worthless.
[2266
Jake
Such an unruly fuss on account of these wretched homosexuals.]
Yeah well done GG. By being obnoxious, you’ve managed to prolong the discussion around marriage equality way beyond what would otherwise have taken place. Furthermore, GG, you provided the space for TBA to come in and spout his bigotry about homosexuality being abnormal and unnatural. Big success on your part, comrade!
sproket_
A quote from the rabid right winger Dan Tehran the source of opinion in your Herald Sun post
” The party of Nietzsche – who want to trash modernity and religion in the hope that this will lead dangerously to a complete revaluation of our traditional values.”
He speaks here of the Labor Party
Why do these religious right wing idiots always talk about ” our traditional values”?
[
sprocket_
Posted Wednesday, August 12, 2015 at 9:56 pm | Permalink
TPOF
The “rat runners” are people taking short cuts to avoid Hoddle St traffic, causing gridlock elsewhere. Now if only they had a EastWest Tunnel 🙂
]
I’ve had to start going into the city; twice spending 1/2 an hour on the westgate was enough for me. Melbourne public transport is great. Pick a station park and get the train in and out; it’s such a simple solution; it works; why do people keep getting stuck in peak hour gridlock.
[I’m curious where she gets her silent majority thing from regarding polling?]
Clearly, they are so silent they go into hiding every time they are approached by polling companies seeking their views. But they will be out in their hordes when they get to actually vote on it in a real plebiscite!
By the way the “push” to send in the Hornets is from Dan Tehan, Victorian Lib. Qualifies as an EXCLUSIVE for a Murdoch organ.
Plus for those who haven’t seen the photos of the demented plutocrat in Sydney yesterday, he looks to have had a bad day at the “wellness clinic”
@sprocket___: Some photos of a visiting U.S. citizen yesterday, looking all of his 84 years #auspol http://t.co/tWTUqbHp6H
[ It is important to realise that anyone who stops a bigot from imposing their views on others, especially those they are bigoted against, is a hypocrite because they are denying bigots and homophobes their human rights. Shame. ]
TPOF actually IS Scoot Morrison!!!!
I wonder how many people who have trouble with homosexuality have doubts about their own sexuality.
Has there been any media criticism today of the strict rules the Parties have against crossing the floor? Anything about how it restricts (makes a farce of) representative democracy? That Parties have no constitutional basis etc.
frednk
KB said this in his post:
[It’s quite possible that for a population of a complex communicating species to have some non-breeding individuals is actually an advantage.]
And that is exactly what ‘our’ choughs do.
The offspring from previous years stay in the family group and assist in the nurture of ensuing broods.
Their ‘extra’ help results in a higher reproductive success rate when compared to more ‘traditional’ [do birds have traditions ?] structures in other species.
I’m not going to look up the complete list of such species that are endemic to Oz but its quite a high number.
One other species that visits here occasionally that has pretty much the same system is the Apostle Bird, so-called because it hangs around in numbers approximating a dozen or so who are all related.
Nature is fascinating.
JD,
I also caused the Arab/Israeli conflict, ebola and the downing of MH370.
I’m a busy boy!
http://www.islandpress.org/book/the-end-of-automobile-dependence
on another moving subject…
beautiful
[Cities will continue to accommodate the automobile, but when cities are built around them, the quality of human and natural life declines. Current trends show great promise for future urban mobility systems that enable freedom and connection, but not dependence. We are experiencing the phenomenon of peak car use in many global cities at the same time that urban rail is thriving, central cities are revitalizing, and suburban sprawl is reversing. Walking and cycling are growing in many cities, along with ubiquitous bike sharing schemes, which have contributed to new investment and vitality in central cities including Melbourne, Seattle, Chicago, and New York.]
– See more at: http://www.islandpress.org/book/the-end-of-automobile-dependence#sthash.JUYy2qB4.dpuf
[WarrenPeace
Posted Wednesday, August 12, 2015 at 10:04 pm | Permalink
I wonder how many people who have trouble with homosexuality have doubts about their own sexuality.
]
In my view a dam good question; we seem to have a mixed up PM who lives in police barracks who seems very concerned about sexuality.
SK
[Is this 1 person stopping 30 odd people from voting with their conscience, in order to stop 40 odd other people voting him out?]
I’ve concluded that is precisely the answer. Abbott has never taken a position of principle where it would lead to a net loss of votes in an election. Yet, I cannot see how this latest proposal, especially as it is so transparently a delaying action, will do anything other than cost votes. Maybe not many because it is only the main voting issue for a few people, but it might be enough to cost a Senate or reps seat here and there as there are always a handful that are very, very close.
So, if Abbott is prepared to take a position that loses votes in an election, there must be a more existential and immediate threat to him. I can’t seen any other threat than losing his job the way that Turnbull lost his, by ignoring the power of the unscientific pig-ignorant right wing faction of his party.
EXCLUSIVE for a Murdoch organ.
Doesn’t that mean some crap they made up to sell more papers or push an agenda?
What percentage of a bee hive is sterile workers and drones? Are they “unnatural”?
Not comparing humans to bees directly, just pointing out how uninformed and illogical such terminology is.
No comment required
@JulesHolman: While hunting for file vision, the ABC has found footage of Tony Abbott enjoying another… (Vine by @abcnews) https://t.co/HxHAhYs7hn
TPOF
[…the unscientific pig-ignorant right wing faction of his party…]
That is not a faction that iS the contemporary Liberal Party.
WP
[I wonder how many people who have trouble with homosexuality have doubts about their own sexuality.]
I recall this has been discussed here before. There are some studies (I dont make any claim to their scientific rigour) that suggest this happens, especially in people brought up in an authoritarian household.
WP
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120406234458.htm
sproket_
Seriously is this some sort of mental condition?
Greensborough Growler@2261
To be fair, if it wasn’t for the extension of train /tram lines and the improvement of the Metropolitan/Western Ring Road, Tullamarine Freeway and the building of the Bolte Bridge, the same journey would have increased to about an hour and a half or 2 hours now.
Nicholas @2084,
[Australia’s greatest economist, Bill Mitchell, was interviewed for tonight’s episode of 7.30]
He wasn’t on the show..
[2286
TPOF]
In the aftermath of the Chopper episode, Abbott needs to re-establish his authority inside the Liberal party. He’s drawn a cluster of diehards around him who are openly committed to him on.
At the same time, he has opened a gaping fissure inside the Liberals. For many of them, Shorten’s maxim, “You can have (political relevance) or Tony Abbott. You cannot have both”, is a dire reminder of daily life. Doubtless it’s for this reason that Abbott himself has put a use-by date on the current policy. It will expire at the end of this Parliament. This is a policy that will allow Abbott to hold on until the election.
Thanks Kevin
GG appears to have been on the booze, and decided to declare to everyone that he intends to sit next to Tony on the wrong side of history.
This week, because of the Kings Way exit closure (from the collapsed crane), I’ve actually been enjoying taking the train and trams. I normally drive in to work, but it’s hard to consider doing that when the commute starts taking longer than the equivalent PT. At least I got to read a book.
cud chewer
This was gist of Bill’s message, seems a change of heart on the 7.30 Report, maybe PETA wasn’t happy with economist being interviewed & pointing to the errors in Joes strategy ..
The slow wages growth is a cause and reflection of the slow growth in overall economic activity and employment. Workers are adopting a much more cautious approach to spending and firms will not lift the investment rate while sales are flagging.
The on-going subdued economic activity will also undermine the Government’s fiscal strategy, which can be summarised as squeezing net public spending out of the economy in the hope that in three years they will achieve a fiscal surplus.
That folly will be exposed. Economic growth will not be strong enough to match their assumptions and that means the growth in tax receipts will be less than assumed.
It would be better for the Government to stimulate the economy more now with larger fiscal deficits and then see the fiscal balance drop on the back of income growth.
Higher (and more reasonable) wages growth would both benefit from and provide support to such a fiscal strategy.
At the moment, we are in a race-to-the-bottom, which is nowhere any reasonable policy strategy should aim for.
For Australian readers, I did an interview on this issue for the ABC TV program 7.30, which will go to air tonight at 19:30 EAST.