Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The third Newspoll under the auspices of Galaxy is the government’s worst poll result for a while, giving Labor a 54-46 lead after two successive results of 53-47.

The Australian reports the third Newspoll conducted under Galaxy’s auspices gives Labor a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the first two polls. Both major parties are at 39% on the primary vote, which is down one in the Coalition’s case and steady in Labor’s, while the Greens are up a point to 13%. Tony Abbott is steady at 33% approval and up one on disapproval to 61%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 29% and down two to 57%. There is a 38-38 tie on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1727.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Later in the day than usual, but Morgan has kept true to fortnightly form with its face-to-face plus SMS series, which has the Coalition at its lowest ebb since the February leadership spill with a primary vote of 36.5%, down 2.5% on last time. Labor is up 1.5% to 37% and the Greens have gained another half a point on last fortnight’s peak to reach 15.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, this reads as a blowout from 54-46 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago to 57-43, although the effect on previous election preferences is more modest – from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2930.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average has both major parties up a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 39% – with the Greens down one to 11%, and two-party preferred steady at 53-47. The monthly personal ratings suggest both leaders have bottomed out, with Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 53%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 29% and steady on 52%. Abbott scores better on preferred prime minister than elsewhere, coming out 36-32 ahead, compared with 37-30 a month ago. Other questions find 66% support for Bronwyn Bishop’s immediate resignation from parliament with 18% believing she should remain; 29% believing that booing of Adam Goodes was racist, compared with 45% for not racist; and 54% disapproval of a cut in Sunday penalty rates, compared with 32% approval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,364 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. The Tradies and fifo workers in Mandurah and Armadale, who are now competing for the same scarce and lower paid jobs in the metro area, their dependants and relatives, couldn’t care less who their local member is.

    They are looking at the empty driveways where their boats, jetskis and late model commodore utes use to be, are wondering what else they have to sell to pay the next mortgage instalment (already overdue) on their four bedroom two and a half bathroom mini McMansions, and cursing the bejesus at the political party that destroyed their livelihood and lifestyle and reduced them to this.

    They look back in bewilderment and despair at how good it was only two years ago, before the jackass and his coterie of incompetents gained power, and rue their own stupidity and naivety in believing he would protect their interests and fuel their voracious appetite for the baubles prosperity had bought.

    And the good burghers of Canning will search for their cricket bats to pound the next Liberal candidate that dares show his head.

  2. JimmyDoyle @ 2349: I suppose that’s possible. But it’s easy to read too much into the things people say after an MP has died about how wonderful a representative, how great a gift from God, he had been. Most voters have little or no real interaction with their MP, at least in urban areas, and many don’t even know the MP’s name. (And why would you? I don’t know the name of the local plumber, but I know where to look it up if I need it.)

    You can bet your bottom dollar that the ALP campaign will be all about “sending a message to Tony Abbott”. My guess is that with the level of dissatisfaction about Mr Abbott which is around these days, that will really resonate.

  3. I work fairly late, and usually have about 5 or 6 pages of comments on this site to catch up on when I get home at night.

    Last night, it was closer to 20 pages.

    Anyone who still maintains that marriage equality is a second order issue, or, not a vote changer, or less politically significant than “x” policy should probably take note of this fact.

  4. Meanwhile the public have decided SSM is on. Abbott represents nothing but delayed inevitability. They can put that on his political tombstone.

  5. [I work fairly late, and usually have about 5 or 6 pages of comments on this site to catch up on when I get home at night.

    Last night, it was closer to 20 pages.

    Anyone who still maintains that marriage equality is a second order issue, or, not a vote changer, or less politically significant than “x” policy should probably take note of this fact.]
    Yeah! no worries mate.

  6. You don’t have to be gay to support marriage equality. You don’t have to have a family member who is gay to support marriage equality. You don’t have to have a friend or aquaintance who is gay to support marriage equality. You don’t have to admire a public figure who is gay, like an artist, a sportsperson or a politician to support marriage equality. You only need to respect the love that exists between two people. Most people in our community do support marriage equality. Most people agree that love is love. There is a minority who cannot fathom that they are a minority, that speak of a silent majority, that believe that anyone who identifies as religious must think like them, because RELIGION. For many this is an important issue. Not just the LGBT community. Not just the families of LGBT. Not just friends and aquaintances of LGBTs. Not just admirers of public figures who are LGBTs.
    Screw the haters, this is real.

  7. [I work fairly late, and usually have about 5 or 6 pages of comments on this site to catch up on when I get home at night.

    Last night, it was closer to 20 pages.

    Anyone who still maintains that marriage equality is a second order issue, or, not a vote changer, or less politically significant than “x” policy should probably take note of this fact.]

    This issue, because it is personal, and goes directly to what is fair, fires people up. PB has lit up in the past few days, including posts from people who feel moved to say it has no significance. That is why the media love it, and why playing silly buggers with it is not smart politics by Abbott.

    Abbott, because he is a psycho, thinks it’s the same as the Republic was for Howard. Something that will make him a culture war hero.

    [And his tactics on same sex marriage are about exploiting divisions within his own party, rather than the battle against Labor.]

    Abbott had a great victory against the LNP, that’s all he has.

    [Dio @2049
    The coverage on radio/TV and the papers has been almost uniformly negative for Abbott. It’s been even worse in SA because of Pyne outing Abbott’s “branch-stacking”. I think he’s going to lose just as many votes over this as over Bronnie.]

    I agree.

    I notice people commenting on KB’s excellent post. Here is the link
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/08/09/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-8/?comment_page=32/#comment-2233700

  8. I see Abbott is jumping on the war on drugs issue.

    Desperation reeks. Pity it stalls rational discussion on how to to deal with stopping the spread of drugs including Ice.

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