The Australian reports the third Newspoll conducted under Galaxy’s auspices gives Labor a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the first two polls. Both major parties are at 39% on the primary vote, which is down one in the Coalition’s case and steady in Labor’s, while the Greens are up a point to 13%. Tony Abbott is steady at 33% approval and up one on disapproval to 61%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 29% and down two to 57%. There is a 38-38 tie on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1727.
UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Later in the day than usual, but Morgan has kept true to fortnightly form with its face-to-face plus SMS series, which has the Coalition at its lowest ebb since the February leadership spill with a primary vote of 36.5%, down 2.5% on last time. Labor is up 1.5% to 37% and the Greens have gained another half a point on last fortnight’s peak to reach 15.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, this reads as a blowout from 54-46 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago to 57-43, although the effect on previous election preferences is more modest – from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2930.
UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average has both major parties up a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 39% – with the Greens down one to 11%, and two-party preferred steady at 53-47. The monthly personal ratings suggest both leaders have bottomed out, with Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 53%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 29% and steady on 52%. Abbott scores better on preferred prime minister than elsewhere, coming out 36-32 ahead, compared with 37-30 a month ago. Other questions find 66% support for Bronwyn Bishop’s immediate resignation from parliament with 18% believing she should remain; 29% believing that booing of Adam Goodes was racist, compared with 45% for not racist; and 54% disapproval of a cut in Sunday penalty rates, compared with 32% approval.
Wow. (Cf PVO)
Delicious.
dave@520 on ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor | The Poll Bludger
Now, all we need is Ipsos to see if the deterioration is universal.
WOW WOW WOW
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-labor-extends-lead-as-entitlements-scandal-hurts-coalition/story-fn59niix-1227476567079
[Newspoll: Labor extends lead as entitlements scandal hurts Coalition
THE AUSTRALIAN AUGUST 09, 2015 10:00PM
Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra
Support for the Abbott government has fallen to a five-month low in the wake of the travel and entitlements scandal, wiping out all the gains the Coalition has made since its well-received budget in May.
As Tony Abbott tried to play down the intense scrutiny of MPs’ entitlements as “a distraction” that he insisted was not affecting the job of governing, the latest Newspoll reveals the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen one point to 39 per cent — the first time it has been below 40 per cent since the budget. The poll of 1727 people taken exclusively for The Australian at the weekend — on the eve of MPs’ return to parliament today after the long winter break — shows Labor’s core support was unchanged at 39 per cent. The Greens gained one point to 13 per cent and support for other parties and independents was steady at 9 per cent. Based on preference flows from the last election, Labor has extended its two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition to 54-46 — the government’s worst result since March.
It is the third successive poll in which the Coalition has deteriorated in two-party terms after a post-budget bounce saw it reach 49 per cent in mid-June.
The previous Newspoll, taken three weeks ago, had Labor ahead by 53 per cent to 47 per cent. This is the 28th consecutive Newspoll survey in which Labor has been ahead in two-party terms.]
Oh, but I do want to see the approvals/PPM numbers.
Just about the right movement for the boiling frog not to get too startled a jump out of the pot.
[ This is the 28th consecutive Newspoll survey in which Labor has been ahead in two-party terms. ]
Lets see abbott talk his way out of this….
[Mr Abbott’s ratings have been virtually unchanged for two months: satisfaction with his performance as Prime Minister was steady at 33 per cent at the weekend but is nine points higher than his record low 24 per cent in February. Those dissatisfied with Mr Abbott have increased by one point to 61 per cent.
Bill Shorten’s satisfaction rating rose two points since the previous Newspoll to a two-month high of 29 per cent after reaching a record low in the previous poll in the wake of his appearance at the trade union royal commission last month. His dissatisfaction also improved two points to 57 per cent.
While Mr Abbott continues to enjoy a higher satisfaction level than the Opposition Leader, the net satisfaction rating for both (the difference between those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied) is minus 28 points. The leaders are also tied at 38 per cent each on the question of who would make the better prime minister. Support for Mr Abbott fell one point while Mr Shorten gained two points. Almost one in four voters do not prefer either leader.]
Meh status of “Newspoll”.
How valid is the “Based on preference flows from the last election” assumption?
AFR Link
Coalition MPs must really be dirty with BBishop. 🙂
Why is abbott, Mr abbott and Mr Shorten, Bill Shorten ?
Much ado about movement within MOE. Yaaaawn.
[Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham 4m4 minutes ago
Looking like new #Newspoll method has lower don’t knows on personal ratings but higher on better PM. #auspol]
dave@15
One is Prime Minister.
No other rational explanation, giving respect to the office and surely not the man.
“Voters still unconvinced by Shorten as Labor fail to take advantage of Government’s distractions”
The Australian’s editorial narrative tomorrow?
Work To Rule – mostly valid, as the 2004 election showed when respondant nominated prefs made ALP look good in Newspoll, but on the day people preferenced much like they did in 2001. People think more about their first vote, and usually take the HTV cards offered. Its only during & after very very big swings that pref patterns get put of wack, e.g. Queensland’s last two elections how people voted changed a lot.
[Much ado about movement within MOE. Yaaaawn.]
Why ya wanna spoil our fun?
the only wow factor is that 39% of votes will still put LNP first.
It is sweet that this coincides with the 6 month period abbott gave himself to turn things around. they will throw everything that can at Canning (& if randal’s daughter is pre-selected they’ll win it) – if they win there, abbott will claim that voters are keeping the faith. if they lose he is gone. he may go sooner rather than that.
[Support for the Abbott government has fallen to a five-month low in the wake of the travel and entitlements scandal, wiping out all the gains the Coalition has made since its well-received budget in May.]
Well received budget in May? About as well received as the second punch that was slightly less painful than the first.
Good, solid result from Labor.
12
Probably slightly out but it could be hard to say which way. The Coalition are driving sources of preference support for them away but there will be a lot less voters who have previously been ALP voters who voted for non-Green non-big parties at the last election voting not for the ALP and the Coalition is likely to bleed votes to non-big parties. With compulsory voting and compulsory preferences, such as used in Commonwealth elections, previous election preferences are historically a good guide.
Will they knife him tomorrow or wait until Tuesday to get the Speakership & condolence motion out of the way?
Decisions, decisions.
Leroy@20
Cheers
Today marks 25 years of continuous US fighting in Iraq or its immediate neighbours… a total f***kup
Interesting to reflect that only a month or two ago people were speculating about the possibility that an early election would have been called by now.
Somehow I think that Mr Abbott will hang on, not just because of a balance of power between his rivals, but also because they no doubt fear that if dumped he would seek to undermine his successor as Mr Rudd was accused of doing to Ms Gillard.
Don’t forget that Mr Abbott learnt his politics from our Parliament’s very own Shelob.
[ One is Prime Minister….]
If you acknowledge an honorific to one side, then it needs to be extended to the other.
I recall Ulhmann throwing a tanty about honorifics.
albo still wants to be leader. if he decides to retire, shorten will have room to breathe.
If there are plans to give Abbott a knife under the ribs, the Libs are being very careful and circumspect about it.
Will Abbott fall on his sword, or has someone from the Labor Party stolen it?
If Mr Randall’s daughter runs for Canning, and if she’s certain then to win, as has been speculated by others here, the ALP could consider not running a candidate “out of respect for the recently bereaved”. Give Mr Abbott a dose of his own chutzpah.
roger – I don’t buy the Abbott knifing story for a minute, for what it’s worth.
Nothing more than wishful thinking on behalf of a few unhappy troopers. The Libs will spend at least a week whining in friendly media ears before they find the gumption to take on Tony.
So it’s just the entitlement furore that’s hurting the govt is it.
They’re running out of excuses for Abbott.
They will soon have to face the reality – he’s a dud and killing their chances.
i don’t think randall’s daughter will run for Canning.
[ Will Abbott fall on his sword ]
In his view, everyone is expendable but him.
What does his partyroom think ?
[If there are plans to give Abbott a knife under the ribs, the Libs are being very careful and circumspect about it.]
There are processes right? Last time, the backbench told the whip (Ruddock) in advance that they would move a spill at the party meeting.
dave@31
You omitted my punchline dave.
“No other rational explanation, giving respect to the office and surely not the man.”
[ Well received budget in May? About as well received as the second punch that was slightly less painful than the first. ]
I’ve had a laff about that lately. Only describable as “well received” in the context of how “awfully recieved” the previous one was. 🙂
54 /46 a good result. We are only one or two points from Terminal Tony i think.
Abbott’s average netsat as Prime Minister (-19.4) has just fallen below Gillard’s (-19.2) for the first time. Still has a long way to go to beat Keating’s -24.4.
Also just reposting the Wonk Central link from last thread:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/wonk-central-how-should-parties-count.html
Wonk Central: How Should Parties Count Member Ballots For Senate Tickets?
Terribly mathsy and fiddly; you’ve been warned. There is a summary though.
Who, outside of his immediate family, even knew Randall had a daughter?
[i don’t think randall’s daughter will run for Canning.]
You can see why it’s tempting for them to go with her however.
36
If Abbott sees a challenge coming, unless he is able to be convinced it will fail, he may run off to the GG for a DD. The challengers may well have worked this out and decided not to take the risk.
I’m hoping Abbott stays. He’s Labor’s greatest asset. These polls maybe just within that range that will keep him there.
oh gosh Unitary State I wish I was as well informed as you!
(a phrase which here means …)
If the ALP does not run a candidate in Canning, they will probably be accused of running from a fright.
Some light relief, a letter from the Sunday Age
[Malaise is spreading
An Australian PM named Abbott;
Had a terribly annoying habit;
Of repeating everything twice;
Which is not very nice;
Particularly when the content is rabid;
And now the thing we were all dreading;
The possibility of this malaise spreading;
I know it’s really a shocker;
It’s now been adopted by Joe Hockey;
Please tell me where all this is heading;
Please tell me where all this is heading – oops.
Nick Neary, Armadale]
The Australian’s report lacks its usual blindfold style. Probably over-analysing, but I wonder if they’re preparing to jettison Tony.