ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

A new ReachTEL poll for the Fairfax papers is almost identical to one conducted last week for the Seven Network on voting intention, but gives Bill Shorten a greater lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll in the Sunday Fairfax papers is another 53-47 result, with primary votes of 40.2% for the Coalition, 38.3% for Labor and 12.8% for the Greens. These results are all but identical to a ReachTEL poll conducted for the Seven Network a week ago, with none of the primary vote changes amounting to more than 0.4%. An all-or-nothing choice of preferred prime minister, with no uncommitted option, records a 58.5-41.5 lead for Bill Shorten over Tony Abbott, up from 55.1-44.9 in the Seven Network poll. Both leaders are found to be in third place as best leader for their party, which for Labor runs 40.1% Anthony Albanese, 34.9% Tanya Plibersek and 25.0% for Bill Shorten, and for the Liberals goes 45.4% Malcolm Turnbull, 24.4% Julie Bishop, 18.9% Tony Abbott and 11.4% Scott Morrison. All we have to go on at this point is this photo of the hard copy, so it’s not yet clear when the poll was conducted or how big the sample size was.

UPDATE: The report in The Age establishes that the poll was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 2534. I’m anticipating another four polls over the coming days UPDATE: Sorry, make that three.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

530 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  5. dave:

    We’ll see if the Libs are game enough to ditch Abbott. I think they have to, but obviously this comes with risks for them, and disadvantages for the opposition.

  7. It’s PVO – no one has any idea what “wow” actually means anymore and there’s no point taking anything from it.

  8. Well let’s see now.
    The last Morgan moved significantly to the ALP on 2PP mainly via the Greens.
    The last ER moved fractionally to the ALP on 2PP marginally, via the Greens.
    The last ReachTEL moved slightly to the ALP on 2PP with a decrease in the COALition primary and the other 2 static.

    This Newspoll

    presuming it arrival is imminent

    .

    COALition down a tad, ALP and Greens static up a tad.

    Thus – I expect slight movement towards the ALP.
    Still 53:47 or 54:46

  9. I think PVO has reached self-parody stage with his ‘Wow’s

    Yeah, reached it a while ago. Now it’s just amusement value for the whole ‘wow’ thing.

  13. new PM makes Tony Minister for Boarder Protection

    Being in WA and recently seeing the lengths this govt goes to to prevent homeless getting secure and safe in winter in Perth, this is a rather scary thought!

  14. Fess – He won’t go quietly, but I doubt too many want to go down with him.

    Something my political enemies who consistently show little regard for others will need to work out.

    I just want them damaged as much as possible – so far most of the damage is self inflicted – which is very nice.

  15. Support for the Abbott government has fallen to a five-month low in the wake of the travel and entitlements scandal, wiping out all the gains the Coalition has made since its well-received budget in May.

    As Tony Abbott tried to play down the intense scrutiny of MPs’ entitlements as “a distraction” that he insisted was not affecting the job of governing, the latest Newspoll reveals the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen one point to 39 per cent — the first time it has been below 40 per cent since the budget. The poll of 1727 people taken exclusively for The Australian at the weekend — on the eve of MPs’ return to parliament today after the long winter break — shows Labor’s core support was unchanged at 39 per cent. The Greens gained one point to 13 per cent and support for other parties and independents was steady at 9 per cent. Based on preference flows from the last election, Labor has extended its two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition to 54-46 — the government’s worst result since March.

    It is the third successive poll in which the Coalition has deteriorated in two-party terms after a post-budget bounce saw it reach 49 per cent in mid-June.

    The previous Newspoll, taken three weeks ago, had Labor ahead by 53 per cent to 47 per cent. This is the 28th consecutive Newspoll survey in which Labor has been ahead in two-party terms.

  19. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-labor-extends-lead-as-entitlements-scandal-hurts-coalition/story-fn59niix-1227476567079

    Newspoll: Labor extends lead as entitlements scandal hurts Coalition
    THE AUSTRALIAN AUGUST 09, 2015 10:00PM
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    Support for the Abbott government has fallen to a five-month low in the wake of the travel and entitlements scandal, wiping out all the gains the Coalition has made since its well-received budget in May.

    As Tony Abbott tried to play down the intense scrutiny of MPs’ entitlements as “a distraction” that he insisted was not affecting the job of governing, the latest Newspoll reveals the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen one point to 39 per cent — the first time it has been below 40 per cent since the budget. The poll of 1727 people taken exclusively for The Australian at the weekend — on the eve of MPs’ return to parliament today after the long winter break — shows Labor’s core support was unchanged at 39 per cent. The Greens gained one point to 13 per cent and support for other parties and independents was steady at 9 per cent. Based on preference flows from the last election, Labor has extended its two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition to 54-46 — the government’s worst result since March.

    It is the third successive poll in which the Coalition has deteriorated in two-party terms after a post-budget bounce saw it reach 49 per cent in mid-June.

    The previous Newspoll, taken three weeks ago, had Labor ahead by 53 per cent to 47 per cent. This is the 28th consecutive Newspoll survey in which Labor has been ahead in two-party terms.

  22. dave:

    I dunno about Abbott doing a Rudd. I’m inclined to think he’ll accept the decision of his partyroom if he is rolled.

  25. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5m5 minutes ago

    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-1) ALP 54 (+1) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 3m3 minutes ago

    #Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (-1) ALP 39 (0) GRN 13 (+1) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m2 minutes ago

    #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 33 (0) Disapprove 61 (+1) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m2 minutes ago

    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 29 (+2) Disapprove 57 (-2) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m2 minutes ago

    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 29 (+2) Disapprove 57 (-2) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m1 minute ago

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Abbott 38 (-1) Shorten 38 (+2) #auspol

  26. the biggest ‘wow’ for me is that 39% of people would still give their primary vote to the LNP. I’m from the socialist republic of victoria, and I’d reckon the LNP would be on about 30% down here.

  28. J341983
    Posted Sunday, August 9, 2015 at 9:58 pm | PERMALINK
    It’s PVO – no one has any idea what “wow” actually means anymore and there’s no point taking anything from it.

    I agree.

  29. bemused@325

    Anyone not got Ambulance cover?

    Got a bill on Friday for a 7.4kM Ambulance trip – a mere $1,1150!

    Fortunately I am covered.

    It seems an anomaly to me that it is not covered by Medicare.

    That’s one scary bill. I wonder if it’s come to that figure in a similar way medical bills in the US are crazy.

    I mentioned once before that I had to be moved by ambulance across a laneway, from Western private to Western public. The bill cost me some $300+.

    My insurance only covers 2 trips a year (between my partner and myself) from the place of medical incident to the hospital but not between hospital to hospital.

    I could afford $300 of course, but I spent a few months on the principle of thinking it was unfair and ring back and forth between departments. Obviously it got me no where and I paid as soon as the debt collector started sending me letters.

    I still think it’s ridiculous, but I suppose it’s more worth it to get ambulance membership.

  30. halloween jack@350

    Ambulances are free in Queensland for Queensland residents and the government will pick up the bill for Queenslanders transported by ambulances while interstate.

    I missed that. Shame I never used that when I lived there. If only there was someway to convince them that I’m just a resident of Queensland merely “visiting” Victoria for the last number of years.

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