ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

A new ReachTEL poll for the Fairfax papers is almost identical to one conducted last week for the Seven Network on voting intention, but gives Bill Shorten a greater lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll in the Sunday Fairfax papers is another 53-47 result, with primary votes of 40.2% for the Coalition, 38.3% for Labor and 12.8% for the Greens. These results are all but identical to a ReachTEL poll conducted for the Seven Network a week ago, with none of the primary vote changes amounting to more than 0.4%. An all-or-nothing choice of preferred prime minister, with no uncommitted option, records a 58.5-41.5 lead for Bill Shorten over Tony Abbott, up from 55.1-44.9 in the Seven Network poll. Both leaders are found to be in third place as best leader for their party, which for Labor runs 40.1% Anthony Albanese, 34.9% Tanya Plibersek and 25.0% for Bill Shorten, and for the Liberals goes 45.4% Malcolm Turnbull, 24.4% Julie Bishop, 18.9% Tony Abbott and 11.4% Scott Morrison. All we have to go on at this point is this photo of the hard copy, so it’s not yet clear when the poll was conducted or how big the sample size was.

UPDATE: The report in The Age establishes that the poll was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 2534. I’m anticipating another four polls over the coming days UPDATE: Sorry, make that three.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

530 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. teh

    It’s scary that people like Credlin, Simkin, Paul Whittaker and Chris Mitchell sit around making up this type of crap. And many believe them, though a decreasing number as MSM diminishes.

    Tomorrow we will have Vegemite, indigenous alcoholism and WelfareCard plastered over redneck radio.

    And the next day, dweebs like Christopher Pyne saying in Parliament “it was in the papers”

  6. ratsak@446

    Nooooo. Leave Tony alone …!


    We might need to get onto change.org Fulvio. Do they have an equivalent nochange.org.

    Please stay where you are Tones. You gotta fight for your right to PM Tony.

    If you structured what you sought the right way, it could be put up on change.org.

    In fact, I think we could have quite a hilarious petition running if we have a sufficiently creative writer to start it.

  9. Jeff Kitsonjulk@444

    Fact

    Very interesting Jeff.

    Would be nice to see 53/47 come unstuck.

    abbott under pressure and his partyroom unable/ unwilling to dump him.

    If they dump him then all that crap they sprouted about Labor gets turned back on them. Dumping a first term PM etc.

    Plus a new leader (maybe) stuck with electorally poison policies, broken promises as far as the eye can see, debt, unemployment ballooning as commodity prices keep damaging the budget bottom line.

    The born to rule mob shot of credibility.

  11. dave:

    I do think that a new leader, whoever it is will release the deadlock of the Senate and thereby unlock those legislative changes lying dormant to date.

    So much of the upper house cross-bench recalcitrance seems to be riffing off the unpopularity of Abbott personally. A new leader, and resultant poll boost changes that dynamic, and gives him (or her, altho most likely him), a further boost through breaking the Senate imbroglio.

  15. [I’m a likeable guy.]

    That’s what Captain Chaos keeps telling us. And he might well be. But Geez, what he does is very, very unlikeable.

  16. [ confessions
    Posted Sunday, August 9, 2015 at 8:38 pm | Permalink

    I do think that a new leader, whoever it is will release the deadlock of the Senate and thereby unlock those legislative changes lying dormant to date. ]

    Fess – I’m not so sure about that.

    Why would the Senate pass bad policies just because abbott may have been replaced ?

    Most of that stuff just didn’t have a mandate anyway.

    In any case the clock is counting down to the next due election that is where the focus has to be.

    Also the compelling action is not with abbott’s policies – its with the stuff he refuses to consider.

    eg even the premiers who support increases to the GST insist no tax cuts – that the money goes on services.

    None of this is what abbott wants.

  17. [Why would the Senate pass bad policies just because abbott may have been replaced ?]

    For most if not all of the cross benchers it isn’t about the policies, but that they can get some media traction and profile by riffing off of Abbott. I dunno, but it seems to me the leader changes, and to someone who gets a poll boost, with the resultant collective public sigh that the Abbott years are finally behind us, and all that changes.

    Suddenly those cross benchers aren’t cast as the saviours of ordinary folk in opposing that dastardly Tony Abbott and his unmandated agenda, but as unrepresentative swill holding up a govt getting on with the business of governing.

  19. will we get a poll tonight?

    can you imagine the leadership hyperbole that would go on if the polling was reversed? I am yet to read the word ‘terminal’ in reference to abbott’s leadership anywhere in the murdoch media.

    it will be interesting to see what stunts abbott will pull this week in parliament. a royal commission into …..?? withdrawal of government funding of muslim schools? legislation to make any action against mining projects an act of treason? banning of union donations to political parties? legislation to removed all existing windfarms? penalties for having solar PV?

    Unless he has an amazing first week in parliament, I think he’s gone within the next month.

    it is such a pity bourke has been caught with dodgy looking claims – the government could be crucified by labor if it wasn’t for this. Hockey, Abbott, Pyne – all at it.

  20. Nikki Savas made a good point on Insiders this morning, which was posted earlier, wtte:
    “For the Liberals to win, they must dominate the economic debate…”
    Which from what we have seen of this government, they haven’t been able to to.
    I remembered back to 1983 and a killer line of Hawke’s from 1983:
    [In response to an attack from Fraser on the security of the banking system to protect people’s savings in which he asserted that ordinary people’s money was safer under their beds than in a bank under Labor, Hawke laughed and said “you can’t keep your money under the bed because that’s where the Commies are!”
    ] from the wiki entry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_1983
    Also Rudd and Swan in 2007 campaigning on being more conservative fiscally than Howard and Costello.
    And again Howard’s ‘trust’ election in 2004 (after the gulf war) on interest rates.
    The Australian electorate are more progressive than the LNP but are economically conservative and if concerned economically will vote for them.
    I think (I hope) this is part of the ALP’s plan for the next election. An example is the Adani coal mine, I suspect the ALP is against it but needs to built a narrative first so it is not portrayed as ‘tragic for the wider world’ (to quote our glorious leader).
    Note – this is a big step for the ALP, mines and mining workers have historically been a back bone of the unions and the party, reducing the unions membership in mining workers has been a key strategy of the conservatives.
    Politics is complicated.

  21. Teaser

    [@popculturechris: .@samanthamaiden says on #Viewpoint that #newspoll is “going to be a big story tomorrow.” #auspol]

  22. Fess –

    I believe the Senate votes are all about the (unfair and harsh) content of the policies not passed in the senate.

    I don’t see how a honeymoon poll boost for a possible new leader changes much if you are a senator being asked to agree to stuff you rejected on grounds you believed sound.

    Any conciliatory noises would need to involve changes those laws.

    Then the issue of past deceit.

    Case in point Nick Xenophon helped passed stuff then they did the dirty on him.

    New leader or not, few would give them another chance.

    Too many bridges have been burnt by ‘team abbott’ and those bridges are pretty hard to rebuild.

    Why even consider helping them with an election in sight?

    Let them reap what they have sown.

    Let them go to the coming election and let voters decide?

  24. John Reidy @ 471: If they want to be fiscally conservative, they either have to cut spending or increase revenue, both of which will create new enemies. And their support base is already so low for a first term government that they can’t really afford to do that. Plus they have a truly remarkable ability to stuff up the selling of any policy.

    Stymied well and truly.

  26. who’s up for a bet? I’ll go for Newspoll 55:45 ALP:LNP, but with a record high primary for the greens. Shorten to lead PPM by a large margin. Murdoch media to sheet it all home to bronnie and praise abbott’s strong leadership in getting her to resign. the next newspoll will be reported as a fantastic comeback when it moves make to 53:47.

  27. Pedant
    [Plus they have a truly remarkable ability to stuff up the selling of any policy.
    ]
    Very true, I assume you are referring to the conservatives ?
    One thing that has been lacking from our politics for a long time is the ability to sell a policy.
    I remember 2008 and Rudd went to great lengths to avoid saying the word ‘deficit’
    This was in the face of the GFC

  29. The stuff stalled in the Senate mostly has no mandate and is ballot box poison. The strategy was to try spring some nasty surprises in the post-election budget, then with the support of the mainstream media and what appeared on paper to be a relatively friendly Senate from July 2014, have it passed by the about this time last year then have two years for the changes to become a fait accompli. Throw around some strategic sweetners in the 2016 budget, get a second term and the reforms will be nearly impossible to undo.

    However, it wasn’t to be. Trying to advance any of the ‘reforms’ now will effectively rule out any early election option. Even if the election is held when due, we are only a year from the start of the campaign. I don’t think the Government will want to be implementing an unpopular agenda now.

  30. http://www.futuristmag.com/2015/08/new-zealand-to-be-coal-free-by-2018-90.html

    It seems New Zealand has vowed to go coal free by 2018, a mere 3 years away.

    [According to a statement by Bridges in March of this year, electricity generated from renewables is at a 20-year high in New Zealand, accounting for 79.9 percent of all electricity generated. Bridges told the New Zealand Herald that “New Zealand’s share of renewable electricity generation is the fourth largest in the world,” and that the country aims to have 90 percent of its electricity produced by renewable resources in 2025.]

    Alas, across the Tasman, completely contrasting view: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/17/for-tony-abbott-its-full-steam-ahead-on-coal-the-foundation-of-prosperity

  32. John Reidy @ 477: Yes, the conservatives this time, though they’re not the only ones, as you note.

    Ricky Muir’s recent article in The Guardian in which he called on leaders to treat the population like adults was very much to the point, I thought.

  33. dave:

    I hope they stay with Abbott, and I hope you’re right about the Senate. But on their track record they go with whatever populist decision they can go with and I don’t imagine them behaving differently with a new PM.

  34. Sustainable, 2PP 56 -44 Greens primary down 2, Coalition down primary down 2, Labor primary up 4.

    Otherwise you may be close to the mark.

    Except there will be no comeback for the Coalition beyond the MOE.

    See, I can dream too.

  35. [Ricky Muir’s recent article in The Guardian in which he called on leaders to treat the population like adults was very much to the point, I thought. ]

    Muir has do far better then expected.

    Unfortunately ‘treating the population like adults’ will always run last to parties seeking government.

    The issue is really about voters not being bunnies. Voters get the outcome of their votes.

    Exhibit 1 – abbott!

  37. Fulvio Sammut@484

    Sustainable, 2PP 56 -44 Greens primary down 2, Coalition down primary down 2, Labor primary up 4.

    Otherwise you may be close to the mark.

    Except there will be no comeback for the Coalition beyond the MOE.

    See, I can dream too.

    I like your dream.

  41. fulvio – you’re on. I like the 56:44, but will stick with my 55:45, and the greens vote going up.

    meanwhile at PB – the jungle drums are going as they were in King King. ‘Poll’, ‘Poll’, Poll’ chant the crowd…..

  47. rumour has it that the newspoll is being delayed while the OZ writers await the biggest shipment of turd polish ever imported inot he country.

  49. Fess – Yep I agree. I hope they stay with abbott.

    But the tories are reaching a pivot between hope and despair – even their own career oblivion.

    Who in their right mind would *ever* put their future in abbotts hands, particularly after the last two years when almost all his decisions have been poison.

    But they know this…..

    What to do…..

  50. 480 and 481

    That is an electricity generating company finding local coal use uneconomic and deciding to phase it out.

    New Zealand will still be exporting coal.

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