A ReachTEL automated phone poll in the Sunday Fairfax papers is another 53-47 result, with primary votes of 40.2% for the Coalition, 38.3% for Labor and 12.8% for the Greens. These results are all but identical to a ReachTEL poll conducted for the Seven Network a week ago, with none of the primary vote changes amounting to more than 0.4%. An all-or-nothing choice of preferred prime minister, with no uncommitted option, records a 58.5-41.5 lead for Bill Shorten over Tony Abbott, up from 55.1-44.9 in the Seven Network poll. Both leaders are found to be in third place as best leader for their party, which for Labor runs 40.1% Anthony Albanese, 34.9% Tanya Plibersek and 25.0% for Bill Shorten, and for the Liberals goes 45.4% Malcolm Turnbull, 24.4% Julie Bishop, 18.9% Tony Abbott and 11.4% Scott Morrison. All we have to go on at this point is this photo of the hard copy, so it’s not yet clear when the poll was conducted or how big the sample size was.
UPDATE: The report in The Age establishes that the poll was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 2534. I’m anticipating another four polls over the coming days UPDATE: Sorry, make that three.
Must be getting close to the point when the Liberals realise their best change to win the next election is to remove Abbott.
That 11.4% popularity for Scum Morrison is telling. He might be beloved in the Liberal Party for delivering their only serious popular achievement in the life of this government (as long as you don’t ask too many questions about how it was achieved), but there is no love for him out in the community.
So the Liberal party alternatives to take over if they finally arrange for a meeting between Tony Abbott and a bus are Turnbull, who is very popular with the public, but worse than kryptonite with a significant portion of the party room; Bishop, who really does not have what it takes to be a PM, although she is a competent fixer in the foreign affairs mode (remember Downer); and Morrison, who might be supported as a can do guy but is either loathed or not under consideration in the wider public. And each will have to contend with opponents within the party room and an angry Tony Abbott, who has a verrrrrrry long history in not coping well with being a loser.
Sign of the times that Barrie Cassidy considers the LNP 2PP to be ‘holding up ok’ at 47%.
From what we know so far, it looks like Abbott has taken a personal hit from his handling of choppergate, but no flow on to voting intentions yet. But either way, just more bad news for Abbott and the Government and the momentum they supposedly had at the end of the last parliamentary sitting has very much evaporated.
@Jake: it wasn’t a big dive from the previous ReachTEL 2PP, so he does have a point.
As long as the LNP stick with Abbott they will be heading to defeat. His political judgment is almost uncannily bad. He has put them into a position where they have nothing to campaign on. They have no policies worthy of the name on tax, super, pensions, education, science & technology, health, the labour market, jobs, productivity, the economy, infrastructure and transport, energy, the environment and climate change…he’s even managed to wreck indigenous constitutional recognition and ME.
His reflexive ultra-conservatism has translated into “No!” to everything. As a result he holds power but has no capacity to use it otherwise than to wreck things.
Let’s hope the Liberals remain as useless in the coming months as they have in the past, and they fail to dump the worst PM the country has ever seen.
[@Jake: it wasn’t a big dive from the previous ReachTEL 2PP, so he does have a point.]
I guess so. It’s just that it reminds me of the endless stream of bad polls for the Gillard government, when anything above 46 was a victory of sorts.
[the LNP 2PP…‘holding up ok’ at 47%.]
Give it a week.
[As long as the LNP stick with Abbott they will be heading to defeat.]
I’m not so sure about that.
[Samantha Maiden
Samantha Maiden – @samanthamaiden
Treasurer Joe Hockey marks first anniversary of his age of entitlement speech flying kids to Perth 4 holidays $14,000 http://m.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/treas%5D
loved this tweet.
7 @Jansant 22h22 hours ago
Breaking: Authorities believe pings originally thought to be missing #newspoll are the sounds of Turnbull ringing backbenchers. #auspol
45 retweets 27 favorites
albo needs to retire.
Could the public be getting frustrated that the most popular and therefore those leaders the public have decided are best to lead their parties (by fair margins as well) are not wearing the Captains’ uniform?
(laugh) Morrison ranking as a worse leader than Abbott in the public view. Takes a massive effort to rank that low.
Another mainstream journalist concluding that the Abbott Government is a nothing:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-donothing-government-20150806-gitlsd
[albo needs to retire.]
Now? Or after the fifth Test?
Jake
[I’m not so sure about that.]
I’m absolutely certain. They may win the next election if they dump him. No chance if they keep him. Even if another 9/11 and Tampa come along, Captain Chaos has demonstrated he is the very last person you would want in charge.
Bearing in mind the inevitable fluctuations inherent in sampling, this result shows a continuation of the PV trend away from the LNP and to Labor…a 1% move to Labor in the period from 25 June to 30 July and a further 0.3% in the most recent week.
1.3%…175,000 votes…in 6 weeks. This shift is corroborated elsewhere, suggesting it is not merely noise. For the LNP, the question has to be how can these votes be tempted to return. Considering Labor must have hours of ad-ready video of Abbott lying, lying about lying, playing the fool, contradicting himself, producing absurd Captain’s calls and trying to evade the media, they cannot expect Abbott to rescue them.
I can hear the sharpening of the knives on the whetstone by the Midnight Death Squad. It is getting louder, particularly in the Lib marginals.
[I’m absolutely certain.]
Ok.
2
Morrison is not widely touted by mainstream media as a possible next leader. Most other leadership polls have not included him.
The Canning by-election will be an interesting preview of the next federal election, simply because Mr Abbott can avoid being involved in the campaign. My view, for what it’s worth, is that if Mr Abbott is still PM at the next election, the LNP will go backwards during the campaign, as voters react to having Mr Abbott in their faces for 5 weeks straight.
I think they’ll knife him on Monday
“can” should, of course, be “cannot”.
briefly@17
Normally you’d factor in an incumbent (especially one with a Murdoch tailwind) being able to improve a few points over the course of an election campaign. But Abbott (and Murdoch) has been in election mode for the last six months and I doubt they have another gear. Meanwhile the ALP has largely kept their power dry in term of the wealth of material to use during a campaign.
Smart move as using it now would only increase the chances of Abbott being replaced with a tougher opponent.
silentmajority: “Half term Tony” does have a certain resonance. Seems to me however that he’ll survive until Messrs Morrison and Turnbull, and perhaps Ms Bishop, come to an agreement on who should succeed him. Maybe that’s already in the pipeline?
Lazt week’s news in one cartoon (may have been linked earlier): http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/the-week-in-news-in-one-cartoon-20150807-giu82i.html
Abbott’s 6 month probation ends today. If he’s knocked iff in the next 10 days, he’ll have served less time than Harold Holt. For the good of the country, I hope he’s gone soon.
16
I agree.
Pedant,
He’s finished. His probation is over. He can’t recover. They openly ridicule & defy him.
Gone first thing Monday.
Full article
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-dragged-down-by-scandal-as-shorten-surges-ahead-20150807-giuivw.html
[Tony Abbott dragged down by expenses scandal as Bill Shorten surges ahead
August 9, 2015 – 12:15AM
Adam Gartrell
National Political Correspondent
The Bronwyn Bishop expenses scandal has done huge damage to Tony Abbott, with support for his leadership waning even among Coalition voters and Bill Shorten surging ahead as preferred prime minister.
A ReachTEL poll conducted exclusively for Fairfax Media ahead of Parliament’s return shows almost half of voters are less likely to support Mr Abbott following the expenses scandal that sparked public fury and led to his hand-picked Speaker’s downfall.
……………
Fairfax/ReachTEL conducted a survey of 2,543 residents across Australia during the night of the 6th August 2015]
And I can’t wait.
My aggregate has gone to 53.1 to ALP, its highest level since the second week of March.
Could be Textor is right and the current polls are all bulldust and it’s really much closer than that.
Could be he isn’t and voters really do think this is a lousy government.
KB,
My only concern is NSW. Not enough seats to Labor for my liking.
[Abbott’s 6 month probation ends today. If he’s knocked iff in the next 10 days, he’ll have served less time than Harold Holt. For the good of the country, I hope he’s gone soon.]
I’ve heard the party has chartered him a chopper for a surf at cheviot beach later today. surfs up apparently.
32
I guess comparing David Cameron to Tony Abbott isn’t exactly apples to apples though. Or maybe Textor is just trying to drum up business
[I’m anticipating another four polls over the coming days.]
A polling tsunami!
trand@35
Or planting a flag so he can look like a genius if Abbott wins. I think the recent Textor interview in the Guardian actually put two different and competing explanations for the UK poll fail – the other one being that pollsters failed to capture tactical voters accurately. Mostly interview subjects are honest.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/wonk-central-how-should-parties-count.html
Wonk Central: How Should Parties Count Member Ballots For Senate Tickets?
Extremely technical wonky piece I’ve just put up. Probably only about fifty people will understand it but I put the link here anyway; it does have a summary as usual though that may not help most people!
[the other one being that pollsters failed to capture tactical voters accurately]
Which I really don’t get at all. The polls had Labour too high and the Conservatives too low. So tactically voting poll respondents were doing … what? Declaring genuine support for Labour, but then making a tactical defection to the Conservatives to freeze out the Liberal Democrats? Another charge of Textor’s that I find puzzling is that not enough was done to observe constituency effects. But I saw hundreds of polls that went to great lengths to do precisely this, and none of them gave any reason to think national voting intention might be 5% askew.
Turnbull or Bishop are closer to Cameron than Abbott.
O/T What do you call an Australian who is good with a bat? A vet
if don randall’s daughter runs in the canning by-election as media claims she might, i think that the libs will retain it out of a personal respect vote of the electorate.
if she does not, i don’t have much doubt Labor can win it. Most of the 11.8% margin is a personal vote. Add to this the 7% nationwide swing to labor being calculated at the moment, the WA economy which is in deep recession, an unpopular state government and a mining boom which is rapidly fading.
It will be tough for Abbott to make a case that voters in Canning should keep him.
Yes, Unitary State, I agree. Though would love to see Abbott get a caning in Canning.
Re Reachtel, Cassidy is largely correct. Not at great deal of movement out of the Bischopper saga. Plus the way Reachtel structures the PPM I think gives a distorted view.
Nevertheless, it is clear the media smells blood.
I can’t help thinking these entitlement stories about Hockey and Pyne are being nurtured from within the Liberal Party.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
With several polls to come this week it’s not a good start for Abbott. All the links to the new poll stories are embedded in this article so I’ll save a bit of time.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-dragged-down-by-scandal-as-shorten-surges-ahead-20150807-giuivw.html
This academic says Bishop’s “resignation” won’t end the impact on the Coalition.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/bishop-resignation-wont-end-impact-on-coalition,8033
Paul Malone uses a “Yes Prime Minister” script to warn us of the perils of the TPP.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/should-australia-be-wary-of-the-tpp-yes-minister-20150806-gisu0d.html
Donald Trump does it again. What can one say?
http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-dumped-over-blood-remark-about-fox-news-anchor-megyn-kelly-20150808-giut7l.html
Some accounting problem here with ADF ordnance. This is now an “on ground” matter on which no comments will be made.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/australian-defence-force-reports-166-incidents-involving-military-weapons-20150807-giuinj.html
Eric Abetz has such an empathetic person isn’t he.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/union-fury-at-eric-abetz-for-defending-port-workers-sacking-by-text-20150808-giuplm.html
Alan Austin fingers falsehoods from right wing radio commentators and journos for being at the heart of racial hatred. A good read.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/right-wing-media-falsehoods-at-heart-of-racial-hatred,8032
Woolies is making no friends in the Broadmeadows area.
https://newmatilda.com/2015/08/09/woolies-are-bullies-and-you-can-help-do-something-about-it
Annabel Crabbe writes of life without Bronny.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/annabel-crabb-the-departure-of-bronwyn-bishop-makes-for-a-catastrophic-week-in-the-media-20150807-gity01.html
Pater FitzSimons’ weekly pot pouri.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/lost-in-translation-20150807-giu5py.html
Section 2 . . .
Peter Martin has a look at our copyright laws.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/indefinite-copyright-is-a-joke–the-recipe-for-carrot-marmalade-proves-it-20150807-gito59.html
Is the TAFE system being managed into a cost accounting death spiral?
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tafe-cuts-the-students-are-gone-and-its-like-being-in-a-morgue-20150807-giu3o5.html
Mark Knight on Trump’s appearance at the Republican hopefuls’ debate.
David Rowe takes the Liberals to the sea as Abbott’s 6 month probation bell tolls.
Rowe shows us Abbott’s idea of red tape when it comes to coal mines.
And in case we forget about Bronny . . .
I don’t know what Fairfax has done with its cartoon section – in most cases they are all folded up with no way to open them.
Do we have a date yet for the Canning poll?
Are the Libs finally ready to hold their noses and follow Turnbull, now that Abbott has fired both barrels – the budget and TURC – and the party is still going backwards, buffeted by the Bronniecopter blowback?
Seems like the last chance for the Libs to salvage something from this parliament. Aside from breaking a few of the Greens’ toys, and stoping the boats, Have they achieved anything?
I am not happy with Labor’s response on this.
[Despite paying lip service to renewables, Labor has yet to show the intestinal fortitude to challenge Adani’s ebullient projections either.
Shorten was fence-sitting with his usual flair on Friday. Should this coal mine proceed? he was asked at a presser. “That will depend” etc.
Both parties back this thing despite Adani’s own modelling suggesting it needs the price of thermal coal to double and claims that it will be twice as cost-efficient as the existing coal giants such as Rio and BHP.
If Shorten is at all fair dinkum about a 50 per cent renewable energy target, he can ill-afford to back a project the size of this, which is uneconomic and will flood the market with surplus coal. All the signs are that coal is in structural, rather than cyclical, decline.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/energy/adani-mines-fate-may-hang-in-balance-for-some-time-20150807-gitxyq.html#ixzz3iGN27SB1
Morning all. Lizzie I agree. The job claims for Adani are BS. This will be proven when the full court judgement comes out. The sooner Labor dissociates itself from what was essentially a scam project when the coal market was at an all time high, the better.
BTW as well as losing CBA funding help, Adani sacked all their engineering consultants in Brisbane a few weeks ago. They are not employing anyone, and are not going to employ anyone.
Regarding the poll, I found this bit the most interesting:
[More worrying still for the Prime Minister, almost a quarter – 22.2 per cent – of Coalition voters say they are less likely to support him, according to the national poll of 2543 people.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-dragged-down-by-scandal-as-shorten-surges-ahead-20150807-giuivw.html#ixzz3iGOmT3t4
Often polls that show Turnbull ahead of Abbott include a lot of Labor voters that would not vote for Liberals anyway. But if Abbott is losing appeal to Liberals and minor party voters that will surely cost them seats.
Thought I’d re-post mine from yesterday afternoon. The info I got seems on the money with the ReachTEL
[Internal ALP polling has it 53-47 nationally, “huge” in Victoria, and trailing 49-51 with a change of Lib leader, Shorten “values indicators” have improved in last month since ICAC out of the news. Abbott bottom of the barrell on all indicators.]