Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The third Newspoll under the auspices of Galaxy is the government’s worst poll result for a while, giving Labor a 54-46 lead after two successive results of 53-47.

The Australian reports the third Newspoll conducted under Galaxy’s auspices gives Labor a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the first two polls. Both major parties are at 39% on the primary vote, which is down one in the Coalition’s case and steady in Labor’s, while the Greens are up a point to 13%. Tony Abbott is steady at 33% approval and up one on disapproval to 61%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 29% and down two to 57%. There is a 38-38 tie on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1727.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Later in the day than usual, but Morgan has kept true to fortnightly form with its face-to-face plus SMS series, which has the Coalition at its lowest ebb since the February leadership spill with a primary vote of 36.5%, down 2.5% on last time. Labor is up 1.5% to 37% and the Greens have gained another half a point on last fortnight’s peak to reach 15.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, this reads as a blowout from 54-46 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago to 57-43, although the effect on previous election preferences is more modest – from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2930.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average has both major parties up a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 39% – with the Greens down one to 11%, and two-party preferred steady at 53-47. The monthly personal ratings suggest both leaders have bottomed out, with Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 53%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 29% and steady on 52%. Abbott scores better on preferred prime minister than elsewhere, coming out 36-32 ahead, compared with 37-30 a month ago. Other questions find 66% support for Bronwyn Bishop’s immediate resignation from parliament with 18% believing she should remain; 29% believing that booing of Adam Goodes was racist, compared with 45% for not racist; and 54% disapproval of a cut in Sunday penalty rates, compared with 32% approval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,364 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. The Australian’s report lacks its usual blindfold style. Probably over-analysing, but I wonder if they’re preparing to jettison Tony.

  2. Zoid cite Ghost at #25 in the previous thread thus:

    [#Newspoll Preferred PM: Abbott 38 (-1) Shorten 38 (+2) #auspol

    #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 33 (0) Disapprove 61 (+1) #auspol]

    Wlliam’s intro here says:
    [Tony Abbott is steady at 33% approval and up one on disapproval to 60%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 29% and down two to 57%. There is a 38-38 tie on preferred prime minister, compared with a 39-39 tie last time.]

  3. [ the ALP could consider not running a candidate “out of respect for the recently bereaved”. Give Mr Abbott a dose of his own chutzpah. ]

    Nope. VERY bad idea from a getting rid of Abbots Rabble perspective.

    Run up to an election year, dont give the bastards an uncontested inch and fight it HARD. The ALP need to run a candidate so that there can be a swing against the govt recorded and fed into the “narrative”.

    AND, it would be VERY damaging more broadly for the ALP to be seen to concede the seat. If they did, they may as well not bother when the main event happens in 2016.

    And its sad Randall died, but he doesn’t deserve any more respect than any other member of a poor and dysfunctional govt.

  5. To push Mr Randall’s daughter to run when she’s just lost her father due to sudden death would be pretty exploitative for mine, unless she’s had an ambition for politics all along. About like the interest which the tabloids and women’s magazines took in Mr Steve Irwin’s daughter.

  8. I know nothing about Randall’s daughter, but can’t imagine having just buried her dad that running in Canning is figuring high on her priority list at present.

  9. imacca @ 53: I hear your arguments. But, on the other hand, it would be difficult for the ALP to fight it really hard against a bereaved daughter without coming across as bullying and insensitive. (And who gives the WA ALP much credit for subtlety, after the Joe Bullock debacle?)

    It might be damaging to be seen to concede what is, on paper at least, a safe Liberal seat. It would be more damaging to throw everything into it and still suffer an adverse swing because the Liberal candidate got a big sympathy vote.

  10. One of the legs of George’s office desk is shorter than the others by about an inch and everything keeps sliding to the left.

  11. pedant@59

    imacca @ 53: I hear your arguments. But, on the other hand, it would be difficult for the ALP to fight it really hard against a bereaved daughter without coming across as bullying and insensitive. (And who gives the WA ALP much credit for subtlety, after the Joe Bullock debacle?)

    It might be damaging to be seen to concede what is, on paper at least, a safe Liberal seat. It would be more damaging to throw everything into it and still suffer an adverse swing because the Liberal candidate got a big sympathy vote.

    Ignore her and fight Abbott and his lies.

  12. [Ignore her and fight Abbott and his lies.]

    I tend to agree if she is ‘ready’ to run as a Lib, she is ready willing and able to defend Abbott and needs to be pushed to do so, the good people of that part of Perth have never been that smart they may well elect her.

  13. This new Newspoll has been a bit ALP-friendly so far. I currently estimate its lean at 0.35 points and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some higher estimates. Could just be chance based on such a small sample.

  14. Laura Tingle has put this on AFR tonight, unpaywalled

    [
    Share on twitter
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    by Laura Tingle
    Coalition MPs battered by voter anger over the travel entitlements controversy and shaken in their confidence about the Prime Minister’s political judgment will return to Capital Hill in Canberra on Monday to elect a new Speaker and face a contentious internal debate on same sex marriage.

    There remains considerable unhappiness about the way Mr Abbott has handled the issue, which has fed in to renewed leadership murmurings in the past week. This is despite no clear alternative leader emerging and despite the fact that, based on the February spill, a change of leadership would require the frontbench to abandon the prime minister.

    The canvassing of votes for the Speaker’s position has had MPs in more contact with each other than normal and some report that the entitlements controversy – and the anger that has now spread to engulf all politicians – has left many feeling “knocked about” and “fragile”.

    Sources say despair over the affair, and perceptions that the prime minister has both lost control of the political agenda and is failing to move on major policy reforms, has led “rusted on” supporters to withhold donations in local MPs’ seats.
    ]

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/key-votes-loom-as-tony-abbotts-unhappy-campers-traipse-back-into-canberra-20150809-giv10g#ixzz3iK1hGOGW
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  16. The Liberals only got 52% TPP as recently as 2010 – I wouldn’t be chalking Channing up in the genuinely safe category at all. It’s very, very winnable for Labor. They should throw the book at it regardless of whether the Libs cynically nominate Randall’s daughter.

    Probably best to avoid any hint of any personal attacks, though…

  17. In 1994, Labor’s state member for Parramatta, Andrew Ziolkowski, died of cancer at the age of 30, and was succeeded at the by-election by his widow, Gabrielle Harrison. During the campaign, the Liberal candidate, Wendy Jones, asserted that Harrison should have been looking after her grieving family. Harrison went on to pick up a 9.5% swing.

  18. As I said earlier – if I were Tess Randall I would run on the line “If elected I am going to finish what my Dad started and get rid of Tony Abbott”

    She would win in a canter.

  19. teh-drewski @ 66: It wouldn’t be enough to avoid personal attacks: the ALP would have to avoid anything remotely capable of being maliciously characterised as a personal attack. And that wouldn’t leave much to be said, especially if the Liberals were campaigning to the effect that the voters had a duty to make the late member happy in Heaven (or wherever) by voting for a continuation of the policies for which he had laid down his life. (I know, spew, spew, but you can see it coming.)

  20. [
    This is the 28th consecutive Newspoll survey in which Labor has been ahead in two-party terms.
    ]

    Ouch!

    That ought to be enough for Fran Kelly or Virginia Triolli to choke on their wheaties when doing their morning read of the Murdoch rags tomorrow morning…

    Of course, assuming they dare even mention the poll!

    ABC Liberal apologist (or “balancist” as I think they prefer to be described) Barrie Cassidy called a 53-47 Reachtel poll as “holding their own” or some such for the government. These ABC clowns are increasinly channelling the dearly departed Shannahan in LNP poll turd polishing.

  21. pedant – Labor don’t have to refer to whoever the candidate ends up being at all. It’s all about Abbott for them.

  22. [ pedant – Labor don’t have to refer to whoever the candidate ends up being at all. It’s all about Abbott for them. ]

    Agreed. Leave all personal stuff out of it. Fight them on the policy they haven’t got and the Abbott factor.

  23. [As I said earlier – if I were Tess Randall I would run on the line “If elected I am going to finish what my Dad started and get rid of Tony Abbott”
    She would win in a canter.]

    If she did it’d be as an independent. Aside from it being electorally moronic to say ‘vote for me as the candidate for the party whose leader I have no faith in’, there’s no way the party would let her.

  24. Posted this in the previous thread, but reposting it here in the hope bemused sees them.

    Raaraa@529

    bemused@325

    Anyone not got Ambulance cover?

    Got a bill on Friday for a 7.4kM Ambulance trip – a mere $1,1150!

    Fortunately I am covered.

    It seems an anomaly to me that it is not covered by Medicare.

    That’s one scary bill. I wonder if it’s come to that figure in a similar way medical bills in the US are crazy.

    I mentioned once before that I had to be moved by ambulance across a laneway, from Western private to Western public. The bill cost me some $300+.

    My insurance only covers 2 trips a year (between my partner and myself) from the place of medical incident to the hospital but not between hospital to hospital.

    I could afford $300 of course, but I spent a few months on the principle of thinking it was unfair and ring back and forth between departments. Obviously it got me no where and I paid as soon as the debt collector started sending me letters.

    I still think it’s ridiculous, but I suppose it’s more worth it to get ambulance membership.

    halloween jack@350

    Ambulances are free in Queensland for Queensland residents and the government will pick up the bill for Queenslanders transported by ambulances while interstate.

    I missed that. Shame I never used that when I lived there. If only there was someway to convince them that I’m just a resident of Queensland merely “visiting” Victoria for the last number of years.

  25. 54-46

    Knives sharpening.

    Btw what is this government’s ‘agenda’? Aside from some laughable unscientific babble about wind power, what is the point of them again?

    No one knows anymore.

  26. Simon Katich@436

    Obamas recent job approve/disapprove polls are around -6. I was surprised, then checked the congress approval polling… -60!

    Not really much faith in the “guhvenmint” in the US. Though I think in the US, most of the folk consider, Obama (and the executive), the Senate and the House of Reps, the “government”. In contrast to here where the executives (Abbott & co) is the government, while everybody else is just a politician.

  28. Perfect result for ALP, not bad enough to cause move against Abbott.

    Within MOE but move against govt looks bad leading into next sitting.

    Think some here are overreacting re Cassidy’s Reachtel comments. He was right in that the coalition 47% held up as in didn’t deteriorate in wake of chopper gate. He wasn’t saying it was good.

  30. WeWantPaul@62

    Ignore her and fight Abbott and his lies.


    I tend to agree if she is ‘ready’ to run as a Lib, she is ready willing and able to defend Abbott and needs to be pushed to do so, the good people of that part of Perth have never been that smart they may well elect her.

    If she runs, Abbott will run it as electorate’s issues and milk the sympathy.

  31. Re Lefty e @75:

    [“Btw what is this government’s ‘agenda’?”]

    To hold the line, get re-elected in the next 12 months, then refer 2014 Budget.

  33. With IPSOS expected soon and the last 5 polls of the past 2 weeks giving us ALP 2PP numbers of 53.5 [Morgan], 53 [ER], 53 [ER], 53 [ReachTEL] and 54 {Newspoll] it would seem that IPSOS, to be consistent, would be in the 53, or more, range.
    Would it not?

  34. Re TPOF @82: it is good to see Liberals discomfited, although to be fair, that does look like legitimate business for MPs.

  35. At 46%, this poll suggests there’s been a 7.5% drop in the TPP LNP support since the election…or 1/7 of those who supported the LNP in September ’13 are now willing to support Labor. 1/7…huge. It would be fascinating to know who they are and what they make of things.

  36. http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/articles/media-releases/post-2020-pollution-reduction-targets-announcement-a-critical-opportunity-for-abbott-government-to-reflect-public-sentiment-on-climate,-renewables-and-carbon-pollution.html
    [Post-2020 pollution reduction targets announcement a critical opportunity for Abbott government to reflect public sentiment on climate, renewables and carbon pollution Media Release
    Aug 10, 2015 – 12:01am

    The expected announcement this week on Australia’s post-2020 carbon pollution reduction target is a critical opportunity for the Abbott government to better reflect public sentiment on climate action, renewables and pollution regulation, said The Climate Institute as it released its annual review of public attitudes on climate change and its solutions.

    …………

    Climate of the Nation 2015, where possible, benchmarks public attitudes against similar research from the last three years. This year’s results are based on a nationally representative online survey conducted by Galaxy Research 27th-29th July 2015 among 1,016 Australians nationally aged 18 years and over.]

    http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/climate-of-the-nation-2015.html
    [Climate of the Nation 2015 Attitudes to climate change
    Synopsis
    Aug 10, 2015 – 12:01am

    Since 2007, The Climate Institute has produced Climate of the Nation research capturing the nation’s pulse on attitudes to climate change. This year’s results show an increasing awareness and concern about the impacts of climate change and the country’s future energy mix amid the intensifying political debate.

    More Australians trust the science that says climate change is caused by human activities.

    The findings provide a critical opportunity for the Abbott government to better reflect public sentiment on climate change in its upcoming announcement on Australia’s post-2020 carbon pollution reduction target. More think that “the Abbott government should take climate change more seriously” and there is a strong expectation for government to regulate carbon pollution, move to phase out aging coal power stations, and invest in renewable energy.]

  37. Correction to #63 – my estimate of new-Newspoll lean to ALP so far should be 0.47 points not 0.35 as previously advertised.

  38. From the Summary published in LL’s link:

    86
    Leroy Lynch

    http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/articles/media-releases/post-2020-pollution-reduction-targets-announcement-a-critical-opportunity-for-abbott-government-to-reflect-public-sentiment-on-climate,-renewables-and-carbon-pollution.html

    [When it comes to renewable energy, despite targets being wound back and anti-wind energy campaigns, Australians are even more supportive of solar and wind than last year. Most (84 per cent, up 2 points) prefer solar amongst their ideal energy mix of three sources, followed by wind (69 per cent, up 5 points). Gas and nuclear have both crashed 7 points to 21 and 13 per cent respectively, with nuclear and coal now tied as least preferred.

    Similarly, 65 per cent, think that reducing the investment in wind farms and householder solar power is the opposite of what is needed. Overall 39 per cent strongly agree with this statement and only 11 per cent disagree.

    Reinforcing coal power’s deep unpopularity is the finding that nearly three-quarters (71 per cent) of the electorate agree that it is inevitable that Australia’s current coal fired generation will need to be replaced.

    A similarly large majority (72 per cent) agree that “governments need a plan to ensure the orderly closure of old coal plants and their replacement with clean energy”. Only 7 per cent disagree.

    Support for regulating and limiting carbon pollution is very strong with two in three (67 per cent) agreeing governments need to regulate carbon pollution with only 9 per cent disagreeing.]

    Obviously, Abbott and the LNP are completely out of synch with the electorate on climate and related issues. They deserve to lose office on this alone.

  40. Conspicuosly, I note that ESJ & TBA seem to have gone MIA in relation to polling. I was waiting for a claim of Abbott “slip sliding away.”

  41. I see too that Dutton has joined Hockey, Pyne & Bishop Snr in the sights of the media with regard to travel entitlements. I sense at this stage that far more mud is sticking to the Coalition than to the ALP on this issue & that it is being perceived more as a government issue.

  42. Six months after his near-death experience & only the deluded could conclude that he has improved his situation. By any objective measure, he has failed to restore credibility or trust & the Coalition are now caught in a gordian knot of its own making.

  44. Reading The Australian today, you have to look pretty hard to find the actual Newspoll stats,

    They’re not trying to suppress them are they?

  45. Morning all. The first post Bronwyn poll is fairly unequivocal. She is gone but not forgotten. We can forget about an early election now.

  49. But – but – Abbott says we’re a ‘world leader’ in reducing emissions. He’ll make sure that’s not true.

    [About two in three Australians say the Abbott government should take climate change more seriously and even more believe coal-fired power will eventually be supplanted, indicating a potential voter backlash if the Coalition adopts facile emissions targets and continues its perceived attacks on renewable energy.
    …
    Mr Abbott said Australia was already a world leader in greenhouse gas emissions cuts and would make a “strong and responsible contribution to the global effort to address climate change”, but not at the expense of jobs or prosperity.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-may-be-out-on-a-limb-with-voters-over-climate-action-as-emissions-announcement-looms-20150809-giuvll.html#ixzz3iM2UYqmT

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