Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The third Newspoll under the auspices of Galaxy is the government’s worst poll result for a while, giving Labor a 54-46 lead after two successive results of 53-47.

The Australian reports the third Newspoll conducted under Galaxy’s auspices gives Labor a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the first two polls. Both major parties are at 39% on the primary vote, which is down one in the Coalition’s case and steady in Labor’s, while the Greens are up a point to 13%. Tony Abbott is steady at 33% approval and up one on disapproval to 61%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 29% and down two to 57%. There is a 38-38 tie on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1727.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Later in the day than usual, but Morgan has kept true to fortnightly form with its face-to-face plus SMS series, which has the Coalition at its lowest ebb since the February leadership spill with a primary vote of 36.5%, down 2.5% on last time. Labor is up 1.5% to 37% and the Greens have gained another half a point on last fortnight’s peak to reach 15.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, this reads as a blowout from 54-46 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago to 57-43, although the effect on previous election preferences is more modest – from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2930.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average has both major parties up a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 39% – with the Greens down one to 11%, and two-party preferred steady at 53-47. The monthly personal ratings suggest both leaders have bottomed out, with Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 53%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 29% and steady on 52%. Abbott scores better on preferred prime minister than elsewhere, coming out 36-32 ahead, compared with 37-30 a month ago. Other questions find 66% support for Bronwyn Bishop’s immediate resignation from parliament with 18% believing she should remain; 29% believing that booing of Adam Goodes was racist, compared with 45% for not racist; and 54% disapproval of a cut in Sunday penalty rates, compared with 32% approval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,364 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. Sceptic

    Interesting re the Shell story that our “Federal Treasurer” Joe Hockey remains both invisible and inactive on the tax reform front. Despite the promises, they have done nothing concrete to combat international tax avoidance via income shifting. It is a huge loss to the country. Meanwhile they persist with the TPP negotiations, which will not create a single job, except in ministerial media units.

  4. In a story that covers most of the front page of the hard-copy Daily Telecrap, although it is less prominent in the digital edition, the Renewable target will apparently cost 6,000 billion trillion dollars, increase electricity prices by 73 billion percent and increase unemployment by several thousand percent. This crowds out polls, Bishopgate, entitlements, etc.

    The front page of the Herald Sun is dominated by something about AFL.

    I won’t bother linking.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. So it’s does look a bit like slip, slip, slide.

    Adam Gartrell analyses the latest poll results.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-dragged-down-by-scandal-as-shorten-surges-ahead-20150807-giuivw.html
    Abbott is out on a limb when it comes to climate change – and it is hurting him.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-may-be-out-on-a-limb-with-voters-over-climate-action-as-emissions-announcement-looms-20150809-giuvll.html
    This looks like a very good move. I hope it works.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-government-trials-online-court-for-civil-cases-in-sydney-20150807-giuig2.html
    It seems there might be a more than a few high powered executives shitting themselves as the AFP moves on the use of bribery to secure overseas contracts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/australian-federal-police-ramp-up-corporate-bribery-investigations-20150806-gisuvb.html
    Coalition MPS get a colourful reminder of what they’re walking into as they got to the Canberra airport last night.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/exclusive-canberra-airport-lights-up-in-a-rainbow-to-greet-mps-flying-in-for-parliament-ahead-of-marriage-equality-bill–20150808-giutzl.html
    Tim Dick says that the Hutchinson Ports email sackings are a new low in bastardry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/hutchison-ports-sacking-of-workers-by-midnight-text-takes-bastardry-to-a-new-low-20150809-giuv83.html
    What an outright disgrace! $20b in sales by Shell service stations and not a cent paid in tax. Something’s gotta give!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/shell-pumped-20-billion-a-year-from-motorists-but-paid-no-company-tax-20150804-gir4bs.html
    Ross Gittins explains the fallacy from certain boosters that lower pay will lead to more jobs.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/dont-be-sure-lower-penalties-mean-more-jobs-20150806-giti4j.html
    “View from the Street” asks how the last six months of “good government” is looking.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-hows-that-six-months-of-good-government-looking-eh-20150809-giv0h6.html
    Is racism in Australia top down or bottom up?
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/racism-in-australia-bottom-up-or-top-down,8035

  7. Section 2 . . .

    From the death bead of Bob Ellis. Perhaps his final contribution.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/08/09/ice-cold-on-death-row/
    The end of DMO begins.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/defences-executive-clearout-after-defence-materiel-organisation-abolished-20150806-gitnkb.html
    Will Badgerys Creek airport be a dud unless a high speed rail link is built?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/comment-ian-thomas–on-badgerys-20150809-giuwax.html
    Pat Campbell takes us back to the days of MAD to illustrate the entitlements saga.

    And Mark Knight has a shot at the newly found bipartisanship.

    A good one from Bill Leak.

    David Rowe on Abbott returning to the parliamentary crease.

  9. BK

    Snap on the Defence story. Also I almost forgot, the last thing you want is in house experts around to question the subs decision when your hand picked team of independent exoerts makes a recommendation for where to spend $40 billion.

  10. The Murdoch smear industry has published this “apology”

    [AN article published on Friday, 7 August 2015 on news.com.au titled ‘Tony Burke’s euro trip with staffer who became partner cost taxpayers $48,000’ alleged that Tony Burke MP misused his ministerial office to grant travel privileges to former staffer Skye Laris.
    News.com.au acknowledges that any such allegation is false and apologises to Mr Burke and Ms Laris for the hurt and embarrassment caused by the article.]

    on news.com.au

  12. sprocket

    Well, at least that’s something, and all the highly indignant moralists around here can retract their abuse, too.

  14. There is a significant amount of internal polling being done at the moment, by both parties, particularly in Victoria and South Australia. Significant as in, twice a week. Make of that what you will.

  16. If ESJ is who I think she is, she is probably in England at present.
    She did however predict the likelydemise of the NSW ALP General Secretary in the wash up of the knifing of Robertson and the state election debacle

  18. What next?

    Tony Burke dines at the same restaurant as Liberal MPs. He must be proud.

    Tony Burke sits in the same Parliament as Liberal MPs. He must be proud.

    Tony Burke went to a function with Liberal MPs. He must be proud.

    Tony Burke breathes the same air as Liberal MPs. He must be proud.

  20. The line of reasoning atm seems to be “Bronwyn Bishop claimed an expense. She was wrong to do so. Other politicians claimed expenses. Therefore they must have been wrong to do so.”

  21. CTar1

    [That the rules the politicians make for themselves are a gravy train?
    ]

    So pick on all politicians, don’t just single out a couple. All politicians will have claimed entitlements.

    So you can argue that ‘they should all be ashamed of themselves’ but you can’t argue “X, the individual, should be ashamed of himself” as if he is the only transgressor (or the worst).

  22. morning all

    As indicated earlier, the HeraldSun front page is focussed on AFL, but the daily!!

    [Ben Oquist
    Ben Oquist – ‏@BenOquist

    Whoa! $600B! Very scary. Think we can declare: 1. shark jumped 2. the abuse of economic modelling is at all time high
    Embedded image
    2:12 PM – 9 Aug 2015]

  24. zoomster

    [So pick on all politicians, don’t just single out a couple. ]

    The allowances they can justify under the current ‘rules’ are well into the rort zone.

  25. Steve @ 84 and RaaRaa @ 102

    It’s just the hypocrisy that I was getting at. Waste watch committees are always a stunt to use anecdote to skewer the government. They are a Liberal Party specialty, although Labor is now fighting back with Pat Conroy’s version.

    The question is not whether the expenses were legitimate, but whether these guys tried to save every last penny of the taxpayer’s money, given they were so anti-waste.

  26. The coalition have lost all credibility. The end of age of entitlement mantra has been called out for its sheer hypocrisy. Ordinary Australians see it for what it is. “Do as I say, and not as I do”

  27. [Ross Gittins explains the fallacy from certain boosters that lower pay will lead to more jobs.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/dont-be-sure-lower-penalties-mean-more-jobs-20150806-giti4j.html

    I heard some industry person arguing yesterday that lowering Sunday penalty rates will mean that businesses will be able to put on more staff.

    Now I mightn’t be the sharpest tool in the shed, but if they are arguing on the one hand that penalty rates are forcing them to close on Sundays, surely putting on extra staff, even at a reduced rate, can only make things worse for them.

    It sounds a bit like a con job to me.

  28. vic

    [The end of age of entitlement mantra]

    Just another idea of George Osburne’s that Joe has copied wholesale.

    George should copyright his crap.

  29. Darn

    [I heard some industry person arguing yesterday that lowering Sunday penalty rates will mean that businesses will be able to put on more staff.]

    Probally Kate carnell.

    The argument that there would be more people employed has no factual basis.

  31. Restaurant owners complain that they make too little profit on weekends because of penalty rates forcing prices up resulting in fewer customers. They argue that removing penalty rates will reduced their costs and the savings will be passed on in lower prices resulting in increased customer number requiring extra staff?

    Bullshit. It’s all about pocketing more profit at theexpense of workers.

  32. CTar1

    doesn’t alter my point.

    Still, we appear to demand very high standards from our politicians, whilst offering them increasingly less incentives.

    Their security of tenure is limited, their job prospects after politics are often poor (look at people like Kennett, Costello and Mirabella – high public profiles, held serious portfolios, yet all struggled to find work post politics), and the perks of the position aren’t what they used to be (lifetime super is gone with several of the perks, overseas travel for study gone, etc).

    Yes, they get a generous wage, but most of them will work with public servants who are paid more than they are, have security of tenure and have similar ‘perks’ (family reunion perhaps not among them).

    We’ve had several high profile figures rule themselves out of political careers stating that they can earn more outside of politics.

    Politics doesn’t seem like a very desirable career. A Liberal safe seat like Indi attracted three contenders for preselection. Most preselection contests are like that – even when Indi was seen as a guaranteed ‘job for life’ we had fewer applicants for the position than the average cleaning job would have attracted.

  35. Neil Mitchell says The Abbott government is in trouble. It doesn’t know where it’s going. Like a true conservative supporter he then adds Labor is no different. Spare me.

  37. Newspoll? What Newspoll??

    The MSM amuses me…when it suits them, the Newspoll results are shouted from the rooftops…

    Meanwhile today, nothing, zilch, zero on ABC early news, nothing on ABC on line that I can find and nothing much in the commercial media…

    However, on ABC we can get blow-by-blow, scene by scene the election of the new Speaker…

    No wonder many of us are cynical about what is decided in the various editorial rooms around the place. And, one might add, why the old media is dying before our very eyes.

    It has almost got to the point that all old media can do is to confirm, for historical record, what was in fact news a couple of days beforehand.

  38. For those who still don’t get it, the difference between Bishop and Burke, Hockey and Pyne is the difference between a taxpayer who deliberately organises their financial affairs to avoid paying any tax (e.g. transfer pricing) and one who takes advantage of a tax concession whose value is arguable, such as negative gearing.

    While both are legal, the second is a legitimate element of the tax system, while the first is a loophole.

    To put it another way, Bronnhilde took advantage of loopholes in the entitlements determination, the others simply used entitlements to the fullest. There is certainly hypocrisy in the latter case because they are all preaching careful use of taxpayers money, but not a deliberate practice of gaming the system.

  39. Tricot

    [Meanwhile today, nothing, zilch, zero on ABC early news, nothing on ABC on line that I can find and nothing much in the commercial media…]

    24 gave it a run.

  43. the demise of jamie clements won’t be something worth crying over.

    nsw labor needs as much renewal as possible.

  44. @Swing Required (51) usually they ignore the aspects that move in Labors favor and report on the bit that moves in the Liberals favor.

    Considering they report 2PP, 1st preferences, Abbott’s approval/disapproval, Shorten’s approval/disapproval and PPM, it’s actually quite rare for them all to be heading in the same direction.

    They usually focus on the ‘glass half full’. They can’t do that this time because the glass is 100% empty for a Liberal supporter.

  45. Surely nobody is listening to Joe any more (Murdoch’s Oz)

    [
    Tax rates must fall: Hockey
    DAVID CROWE
    Australia is suffering an “unsustainable risk” from high personal taxes, Treasurer Joe Hockey warns.]

  47. @138

    I see an item has turned up on Ch7 on-line. The point being, not that the Newspoll is not reported at all, (there seems to be an aversion by various outlets even admitting their competitors have their own polls)but the emphasis the news editors decide to give said polls.

    How many times do we see screaming headlines about how good/bad/up/down/win/lose some polls are and yet others… almost ready to wrap up the garbage as soon as the item is printed.

    Our local rag did not even bother with its own ReachTel a few days ago and would report on Newspoll in only the most indirect way.

  48. Good Morning

    Its going to be an interesting session of Parliament. Not just for the impact of the new speaker in the HOR, but also for the impact of the polling.

    The trend is plain. I think we should be asking with that polling trend how long before desperation overcomes reluctance to see a leadership change?

  49. Tricot

    [ Our local rag did not even bother with its own ReachTel a few days ago and would report on Newspoll in only the most indirect way. ]

    One presumes their justification is that poor polling for the LNP and Abbott is hardly “news” any longer!

  50. [Did I hear Shorten say yesterday that Tony Smith would be acceptable?]

    The purpose of Question Time is to provide one of the few regular occasions where the executive of the day can account to Australia’s citizens. While this has been a very poor offering of accountability, especially compared to the UK Parliament, it has never been traduced the way it was when Bishop was speaker.

    I don’t care who replaces her, as long as he (or she) ensures that the government answers the questions asked.

    My expectation is that the new speaker will get complete, almost overdone, compliance from the Opposition in order to give them every chance to settle in. If they show they take after Slipper as Speaker, they will continue to get Opposition compliance and support; if they tend towards Bishop they will get the same treatment she got.

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