The Australian reports the third Newspoll conducted under Galaxy’s auspices gives Labor a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the first two polls. Both major parties are at 39% on the primary vote, which is down one in the Coalition’s case and steady in Labor’s, while the Greens are up a point to 13%. Tony Abbott is steady at 33% approval and up one on disapproval to 61%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 29% and down two to 57%. There is a 38-38 tie on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1727.
UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Later in the day than usual, but Morgan has kept true to fortnightly form with its face-to-face plus SMS series, which has the Coalition at its lowest ebb since the February leadership spill with a primary vote of 36.5%, down 2.5% on last time. Labor is up 1.5% to 37% and the Greens have gained another half a point on last fortnight’s peak to reach 15.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, this reads as a blowout from 54-46 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago to 57-43, although the effect on previous election preferences is more modest – from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2930.
UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average has both major parties up a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 39% – with the Greens down one to 11%, and two-party preferred steady at 53-47. The monthly personal ratings suggest both leaders have bottomed out, with Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 53%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 29% and steady on 52%. Abbott scores better on preferred prime minister than elsewhere, coming out 36-32 ahead, compared with 37-30 a month ago. Other questions find 66% support for Bronwyn Bishop’s immediate resignation from parliament with 18% believing she should remain; 29% believing that booing of Adam Goodes was racist, compared with 45% for not racist; and 54% disapproval of a cut in Sunday penalty rates, compared with 32% approval.
Simon Katich 2292
Thanks for that it would explain why some of those with religious beliefs act the way they do. (Note some)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-12/seven-seek-liberal-pre-selection-for-canning-by-election/6693256
sceptic
[The slow wages growth is a cause and reflection of the slow growth in overall economic activity and employment]
Especially bad for HoJo and the Libs as most of their planned deficit “improvement” relies on bracket creep.
So has the Bill Mitchell interview been rescheduled?
Raaraa @ 2302
No Tess Randall!
There probably will be a new federal seat centred on Blacktown called Whitlam drawn for the redistribution by next year.
[2305
TPOF
No Tess Randall!]
Labor now has a better than even chance to win Canning.
silentmajority@2204
GG channels him.
That’s what I thought
Abbott has conned us all ..yet again.
There was no vote in the party room yesterday on whether to allow a free vote on Marriage Equality..
Some of those who spoke AGAINST ME ..were FOR a free vote ..but Abbott is saying wtte because they spoke against ME they were against a free vote..
He is being mean and tricky with his own parliamentary colleagues & they are not happy..
While it is true that the Australian Christian Lobby has been calling for a plebiscite for some months, marriage equality advocates have not wanted one, and neither have either the pro or anti camps in Parliament (until yesterday). Legal experts have also dismissed the idea.
Here’s why.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/samesex-marriage-five-reasons-why-a-plebiscite-is-a-dud-idea-20150812-gix5xx.html#ixzz3ibZHFWbP
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
Katie Faust on Lateline using the term ” normalise” , where is GG ?
Looks like religious cons catch word is NORMAL
Faust. Now using “bigot” come on down Scott
Speaking of Randall, it’s now some weeks since he died.
Has there been any official announcement as to his cause of death? The above article regarding the candidates for his seat still refers to his death as being a suspected heart attack.
Surely they would know by now?
Sceptic
When Faust began I said to OH “she’ll be a religious nutter”. Took only about 30 seconds for Jones to elicit that she was, and her SSM (anti) views are informed by the bible.
Pity any child of hers who might be gay.
[2305
TPOF
Raaraa @ 2302
No Tess Randall!]
Makes sense.
It’s certainly not the best time to be launching a career as a Liberal, especially in an electorate like Canning, where the LNP’s incompetence will have registered quite heavily.
And, doubtless, to try to campaign while still feeling bereaved would be very difficult.
Providing they select a string candidate, Labor must have a good chance of taking Canning, a development that would put great pressure on Abbott notwithstanding the barricade he’s tried to build this week.
So on Morrison’s rationale, historical proponents of equal rights such as the opponents of slavery and, the suffragette movement were all bigots, were they? Gard these God botherers live in another universe.
Lateline just interviewed about 6 families from remote areas, complaining about the poor NBN they get, and how insufficient download speeds and allowances are stuffing their kids’ education.
All the parents were well educated and I gained the impression that they did not lack a few bob. Made me wonder how many of them voted for their non-reps ie Nationals, and contributed to electing this retrograde anti NBN government.
Serves them bloody right. Hope they’ve learned something but I doubt it. If rural people had half a brain, the Nationals would disappear after the next election.
[2314
Fulvio Sammut]
There will have been a tox report and an autopsy prior to the release of the body for the funeral. The usual thing would be for a sudden death to be the subject of a coroner’s report, at which time a finding will be published.
This could take a while.
FS
Cause of death can take this long. Especially if they want toxicology….which they may have to do due to various non-suspicious reasons.
I will decide who is a bigot and. In what circumstances. First Brandis defending the rights of bigots and now Morrison claiming secularists are bigots. What has happened to the Liberal Party? It’s taking on the appearance of the DLP split.
Thinking of Canning, doubtless William will post a summary prior to the by-election. It will be interesting to see if he thinks it may be winnable for Labor, and, if so, in which districts the swings will have to occur.
psyclaw
Not possible to provide fibre to these people, would Labor have provided the new satellites faster or increased their subsidies?
briefly @ 2322 – I posted a few nights ago that it is very interesting that the two main urban areas of Canning are Mandurah and Armadale, which at the state level are very strong Labor areas. Given that Randall racked up quite large margins in those areas, I imagine there is a lot of room for Labor to achieve a big enough swing to win Canning.
[2321
Rossmore]
Bigotry is now an official Liberal policy and will remain so until the election, when they may become disposed to be without bigotry.
The best thing about this is that Howard’s wedge has boomeranged. It is the LNP that have now chosen to adopt a policy that large numbers of their supporters will be against.
The Howard-Abbott culture war is a campaign against society and history, a war they are now going to lose, a war in which the LNP will be the casualties.
2324
JimmyDoyle
I recall your post. I’m sure you’re right. There is a lot of potential for votes to come back to Labor despite the recent development of slightly more affluent zones.
Labor have a lot of work to do in WA, but running good candidates in winnable seats, supported by strong campaigns, is the only way to succeed. Hopefully this will mark the beginning of a renaissance.
It took the Thatcher Government 8 years to collapse under its own hubris and its exaggerated sense of ideological purity, the Kennet Government seven years and the Abbott Government on r event showing will struggle to last three years.
On Canning: Bludgertrack is showing a statewide swing of 8.1% to the ALP since the 2013 election. The Liberal margin in Canning last time was 11.81%, with Mr Randall having been the member for 14 years. Throw in the typical anti-government swing at a by-election, especially when a government is on the nose; the loss of Mr Randall’s personal vote (if any); the apparent declining popularity of the State Liberal government, the recent federal brouhaha; and finally my theory that Mr Abbott being part of your campaign is likely to be a vote loser. Feels like a bit of perfect storm to me: Canning should be eminently winnable if the ALP has a good candidate and campaign, and if luck keeps going their way as it has for the past month.
…current …
Rossmore at 2327: You have to go back to Gough Whitlam to find a newly elected PM who had spent a longer time as LOTO than Mr Abbott did prior to his election. This is not to his advantage, for people voting at the next election may well have the sense that Mr Abbott has been around for an awfully long time, which could cause the “it’s time” factor to cut in a bit earlier than usual.
pedant @ 2328 – and in addition to your summary, add in the fact that this is a by-election, where voters have an opportunity to swing the bat at the Government without necessarily affecting a change of government, although I suspect the fact that the by-election came about because of the death of the member will reduce this a bit.
2327
Thatcher was PM for 11 years (79-90).
Tom
Maybe Maggie was in terminal decline for the last 3 years
[2328
pedant]
The Speaker is responsible for issuing the writ for the by-election. Abbott may like to postpone it as long as possible. The Speaker may like to exercise his independence and call it for a time of his own choosing. Considering a loss in Canning could lead to a revolt against Abbott, the Speaker may hold the destiny of the government in his hands. It’s been a while since we’ve had such a potentially critical test. If he’s to be true to his word – to both be independent of Abbott and be seen to be so – then he will make up his own mind.
2334
Then there is the Morrison apparently getting him the numbers issue, especially when Morrison is the likely winner of any leadership contest.
2328
pedant
Personally I’m hoping for a cataclysmic swing – a swing such as that in Bass in 1975 – a swing that will bring the despotic Abbott to his knees one way or another.
[2335
Tom the first and best]
Yes. Morrison is the player to watch.
[2327
Rossmore
…the Abbott Government on current showing will struggle to last three years….]
It’s clear they are governing in name only these days. They have no reason to be.
2336
Are their any supply bills coming up?
I do not want them replacing Abbott then going to a honeymoon election.
briefly at 2334: There’s a good discussion of by-election dates at http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1314/HoRByElections#_Toc389724087
Since 2000, the longest period from vacancy to writ has been 45 days. The longest ever period from vacancy to polling day has been 82 days, so if the writ is issued more than about 50 days after the vacancy, all the records will be broken.
My guess is that it won’t take too long now for the writ to be issued: stringing it out would just make the government look cowardly.
[2339
Tom the first and best
2336
Are their any supply bills coming up?]
I’m not sure…it must be possible to look it up. If Abbott were to fall his replacement would surely want as long as possible before an election. Any honeymoon effect would evaporate as soon as an election was announced. Voters need to be given time to assay a new leader and their policies, especially considering the blundering and the lying with which the LNP are now all associated.
jimmy doyle @ 2331: There have been comparatively few by-elections caused by death in recent years, so it’s a bit hard to know how that might play out. I suspect that people are pretty unsentimental about such things: are the voters likely to think they will make Mr Randall happy in heaven or wherever he is now by voting in another Liberal?
pendant
If they are sentimental they might vote Labor to finish Randalls job & get rid of Tony
[2340
pedant]
Thanks for the link.
Randall died on 21 July, so 22 days have passed. The Liberals should complete their pre-selection in around a week, following which the by-election date should be announced.
[It is understood the Liberals are aiming to launch their candidate at the party’s WA state conference in Perth on August 22-23.]
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/08/10/liberals-eye-wa-seat-canning
The AFL Grand Final is 3 October. Perhaps 10 October is the most likely date.
sceptic @ 2343: I was told a story years ago – and it might even be true – of a state seat in Queensland in days long gone where the ALP didn’t think it could beat the conservatives, but thought one of the independents in the field might. So they decided to try to keep the ALP primary vote below that independent’s, and pre-selected an electricity pole worker who spoke no English. Unfortunately, however, he fell out of a cherry-picker before polling day and got a big sympathy vote, which spoilt the strategy.
If the ALP want to keep Mr Abbott in place, which would seem like a good idea, they might need to try something similar in Canning, as a loss there would surely be the end for him.
[2342
pedant
jimmy doyle @ 2331: There have been comparatively few by-elections caused by death in recent years, so it’s a bit hard to know how that might play out. I suspect that people are pretty unsentimental about such things…]
People have a very low opinion of Abbott. Generally, they could be expected to express that in quite clear terms. Abbott, of course, is an arrogant, self-satisfied smart-ass from Sydney….a variety of politician that features very low down on the respect list for WA voters.
[2345
pedant
If the ALP want to keep Mr Abbott in place, which would seem like a good idea, they might need to try something similar in Canning, as a loss there would surely be the end for him.]
Oh, I think Labor need to demonstrate they are dead serious about fighting the Libs and rolling Abbott. Voters would have every reason to deride Labor if any stunts were suspected.
[People have a very low opinion of Abbott. Generally, they could be expected to express that in quite clear terms. Abbott, of course, is an arrogant, self-satisfied smart-ass from Sydney….a variety of politician that features very low down on the respect list for WA voters.]
Cool..
[2342
pedant
are the voters likely to think they will make Mr Randall happy in heaven or wherever he is now by voting in another Liberal?]
Not that so much – it’s more that I think it’s possible that Randall’s death will dull peoples’ anger towards the Government, however I’m not saying there won’t be a swing.
briefly @ 2346: On that, the incumbents did their level best to keep Mr Abbott away from the State campaigns in Victoria, Queensland and NSW, and they were able to get away with that quite easily by arguing it wasn’t his jurisdiction.
It will be much harder to keep attention away from him at a federal by-election. Any effort to hide him will be immediately obvious, and will feed into the broader narrative that he’s an embarrassment.