Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The third Newspoll under the auspices of Galaxy is the government’s worst poll result for a while, giving Labor a 54-46 lead after two successive results of 53-47.

The Australian reports the third Newspoll conducted under Galaxy’s auspices gives Labor a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the first two polls. Both major parties are at 39% on the primary vote, which is down one in the Coalition’s case and steady in Labor’s, while the Greens are up a point to 13%. Tony Abbott is steady at 33% approval and up one on disapproval to 61%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 29% and down two to 57%. There is a 38-38 tie on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1727.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Later in the day than usual, but Morgan has kept true to fortnightly form with its face-to-face plus SMS series, which has the Coalition at its lowest ebb since the February leadership spill with a primary vote of 36.5%, down 2.5% on last time. Labor is up 1.5% to 37% and the Greens have gained another half a point on last fortnight’s peak to reach 15.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, this reads as a blowout from 54-46 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago to 57-43, although the effect on previous election preferences is more modest – from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2930.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average has both major parties up a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 39% – with the Greens down one to 11%, and two-party preferred steady at 53-47. The monthly personal ratings suggest both leaders have bottomed out, with Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 53%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 29% and steady on 52%. Abbott scores better on preferred prime minister than elsewhere, coming out 36-32 ahead, compared with 37-30 a month ago. Other questions find 66% support for Bronwyn Bishop’s immediate resignation from parliament with 18% believing she should remain; 29% believing that booing of Adam Goodes was racist, compared with 45% for not racist; and 54% disapproval of a cut in Sunday penalty rates, compared with 32% approval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,364 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. [“Having an IQ of greater than 140 isn’t “normal”. Being able to run 100m in 11 seconds isn’t normal. Having blond hair and brown eyes isn’t “normal”.”]

    Bit different here.

    Being Gay is inherently against the natural scheme of things as it inevitably means reproduction isn’t possible.

    Not that there is anything wrong with that as Seinfeld would say

  2. [“You are so hilariously lacking in self-awareness, given the way you carried on about Gillian Triggs”]

    No… I called for Gillian Triggs to be Sacked/Retire because she is a blatant partisan figure.

    I have the right to call for this as I am technically her employer and paying her wages every week. When she’s not being paid by me the taxpayer, she can say and do whatever she wants.

  3. “Secular bigot” (defn):

    Someone who refuses to be bullied into accepting the ignorant and irrational views of those who suffer from a God delusion..

  4. I have a colleague at work who while non-religious and probably close to an atheist in terms of religious conviction, has similar views to GG in terms of SSM.

    That being said, he doesn’t care for too much focus being put on SSM, and he thinks the whole debate around it is to distract us from something else they’re probably doing behind the scenes, despite what Abbott said that the discussion around SSM is WTTE of distracting front the issues of the economy and jobs.

    A double-blind political distraction perhaps? His views, not mine. Sounds almost tin-foil hat conspiracy theorist, but is there any merit to it?

  5. [
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Wednesday, August 12, 2015 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

    Tom,

    But does it make any difference?
    ]
    To you maybe not; to some it clearly does; does giving those who care what they want make you worse off? Difficult to see how; so why the crap?

  6. [Being Gay is inherently against the natural scheme of things as it inevitably means reproduction isn’t possible.]

    Ah yes, a response consistent with our laws that force any heterosexual married couple to divorce if one of them is impotent. Or the one outlawing menopausal women from marrying.

  7. TrueBlueAushole@2202:
    [Being Gay is inherently against the natural scheme of things as it inevitably means reproduction isn’t possible.]
    Tell that to Penny Wong & Sophie Allouach.

  8. TrueBlueAussie@2202

    “Having an IQ of greater than 140 isn’t “normal”. Being able to run 100m in 11 seconds isn’t normal. Having blond hair and brown eyes isn’t “normal”.”


    Bit different here.

    Being Gay is inherently against the natural scheme of things as it inevitably means reproduction isn’t possible.

    Perhaps people who are sterile and/or unable to have children without the use of IVF should have their IVF medical subsidies taken away and be denied the right to marry.

  9. Raaraa

    Your friend is definitely in tin foil hat territory. Abbott would like everyone to stop focusing on it. Not sure what he’d prefer us to actually focus on, because he’s running out of credible policies in every other area too, but he certainly believes there’s something the voters will agree with him on.

  10. [2205
    TrueBlueAussie
    When she’s not being paid by me the taxpayer, she can say and do whatever she wants.
    ]

    You do realise that every Member of Parliament is paid by the taxpayer? You’re paying the wages of Labor and Greens MPs. That doesn’t mean you get to decide what they think or say. Just because you hate democracy doesn’t mean you get to shut people up when you don’t like what they say. Lover of free speech you emphatically are not.

  11. When it comes to religious nuts in office the US are streets ahead of us. Take Minnesota’s representative.

    [Michele Bachmann: Iran deal a cause for celebration because it proves the End Times have begun in earnest

    “The prophets longed to live in this day,” she said, “you and I are privileged to live in it”…………Bachmann claimed that the Obama administration’s historic accord is evidence of the fulfillment of the prophecy from Zechariah 12:3 ]
    http://www.salon.com/2015/08/10/michele_bachmann_iran_deal_a_cause_for_celebration_because_it_proves_the_end_times_have_begun_in_earnest/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

  12. [The thing I find most extrordinary is Abbott has a sister who is gay and he has so little sympathy for her.]

    and you have observed Abbott for how long?

  13. Prefix@2215

    Raaraa

    Your friend is definitely in tin foil hat territory. Abbott would like everyone to stop focusing on it. Not sure what he’d prefer us to actually focus on, because he’s running out of credible policies in every other area too, but he certainly believes there’s something the voters will agree with him on.

    Perhaps that could just be the case, but I really want to distract someone from an issue I would do that.

    Sometimes I wonder if the US deliberately planted the whole thing around Area 51 and “aliens” and then deliberately deny the rumours coming out from it to distract people from advanced research and testing in military technology in that area.

  14. [2214
    Greensborough Growler
    You give me what I want.
    ]

    What you want is people to shut up about marriage equality because YOU think it’s unimportant and irrelevant.

  15. [2190
    TrueBlueAussie

    “As we know, bigotry is now compulsory”

    You should look up the meaning of the word Bigot]

    I am familiar with the meaning. Perhaps you need to be reminded.

    [In American English, the term can be used similarly; however, it can also be used to refer to intolerance towards a group of people in general based on their group characteristics such as race, religion, national origin, gender, disability, sexual orientation, and socioeconomic status]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bigotry

    You have a persistent case of the disorder. You should get professional help. Hate will only get you so far.

  16. [……only purely homosexual people…….]

    What is a “purely homosexual” person?

    Reducing sexuality to a stupid dichotomy of homo/hetero is so obviously idealogical.

  17. I have no doubt Abbott would much rather be running around shouting ‘Carbon Tax, Carbon Tax, Carbon Taaaaaaxxxxx!!!!!’ than being mired in his self inflicted SSM debacle. Not working out to good for him just yet.

  18. [ Greensborough Growler
    Posted Wednesday, August 12, 2015 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

    frednk,

    Practice what you preach.

    You give me what I want.
    ]

    And what do you want that will not affect others GG?

  19. swamprat@2219

    What about scrutiny on the TPP process.


    Could we have a plebiscite on the TPP restraint of trade treaty?

    Hell, why not just have a plebiscite and ask people to say yes or no to the TPP trade agreement once it has been finalised?

  20. TrueBlueAussie@2202

    “Having an IQ of greater than 140 isn’t “normal”. Being able to run 100m in 11 seconds isn’t normal. Having blond hair and brown eyes isn’t “normal”.”


    Bit different here.

    Being Gay is inherently against the natural scheme of things as it inevitably means reproduction isn’t possible.

    Clueless bollocks.

    The natural scheme of things is that species survive if, as a species, they in the long term reproduce in sufficient numbers to replace individuals that die.

    This does not necessarily entail all individuals attempting to reproduce and there are many species in which, quite naturally, many or even most specimens are not reproductive.

    Humans have had no difficulty increasing their numbers to a level that some might naively argue was beyond “the natural scheme of things”, although there have always been some people who were only attracted to their own sex and others who just had no interest in breeding.

    It’s quite possible that for a population of a complex communicating species to have some non-breeding individuals is actually an advantage.

    Furthermore, it’s a mistake to confuse being gay with never under any circumstances having sex with the opposite sex – the term denotes inclination, not inability, and in the past gay people sometimes entered into mixed-sex relationships, without being sexually attracted to their partners, for the purpose of reproduction.

    With assisted-reproduction technologies this is thankfully no longer necessary. I would argue also that the distinction between natural and unnatural is a spurious one in this context; it is natural for humans to use their intellects to develop new tools and technologies so IVF is as much in the “natural scheme of things” as anything else humans to do have offspring.

    I realise the above is possibly wasted on you but it may be useful to others in combating similar nonsense elsewhere.

    As a general rule, any appearance of the word “natural” in the same-sex marriage debate denotes that the person introducing it has no idea about population biology.

  21. TBA

    [Being Gay is inherently against the natural scheme of things as it inevitably means reproduction isn’t possible.]

    In addition to the medical arguments against that (sterility, menopause etc etc) you are inconsistent if you don’t use that argument against being a nun or priest, both of which are “against the natural scheme of things”.

    Even allowing for those flaws, there are many evolutionary arguments that having a certain percentage of the population being homosexual is quite “natural” and beneficial to the species/genes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDmQns78FR8

  22. Someone posted an article recently that put it well. It asked people to look at the difference between these two statements.

    [
    1) I can’t do this because it is against my religion.
    2) You can’t do this because it is against my religion. ]

  23. 2219

    A Parliamentary vote being required to approve ratification may well be all we need to stop it if the ALP and enough of the crossbench oppose it. A Parliamentary vote should happen before every ratification.

  24. Talking about natural I really don’t get the national party being opposed. If you live on the farm you have to put up with the rams having a go at each other.

  25. [True Blue Aussie

    @2161
    Being Gay is a natural occurance, but that doesn’t make it normal.

    @2190
    You should look up the meaning of the word Bigot before hurling insults.

    @2202
    Being Gay is inherently against the natural scheme of things
    ]

    Am I the only one that thinks calling LGBT people unnatural and abnormal is in fact bigotry?

  26. meanwhile in North Korea, they take their forestry policy very seriously

    [REUTERS – North Korea’s vice premier was executed by firing squad this year after showing discontent with the policies of the country’s leader Kim Jong Un, a South Korean media report said on Wednesday.

    Yonhap News Agency cited an unnamed source as saying that the 63-year-old Choe Yong Gon, a former delegate for North-South cooperation, was executed, marking another death of a senior official in a series of high-level purges since Kim Jong Un took charge in late 2011.

    The Yonhap report said Choe had expressed disagreement with Kim’s forestry policies in May and had shown poor work performance. It provided no further details.]

  27. [2205
    TrueBlueAussie

    I called for Gillian Triggs to be Sacked/Retire because she is a blatant partisan figure.

    I have the right to call for this as I am technically her employer and paying her wages every week.]

    No you’re not. You are, technically-speaking, just another mindless fool.

  28. If more people in over populated nations were homo sexual and allowed to live full and productive lives it would take the pressure off over population.

  29. We have ‘gay’ birds that reside at our property.
    White-winged Chough.

    A whole extended family of such, usually numbering 6-10 individuals.
    They have up to 3 nests – a brood nest and 1 or 2 roosting nests and they may rotate among those seasonally.

    Such socially extended family units are quite common in bird species around the world but appear to be more common in Australia.

  30. JD,

    Sure, my commentary has always been specifically designed to stop people discussing various matters. Unfortunately, it’s been one of my lesser successes in life.

    However, I have been successful in raising what I regard as main stream views that go against the personal agendas and views of many on PB. For my rouble I have been villlified, stalked, threatened and told I have no feelings. But, such is life.

    So, your emotional clap trap assertion of only people like you having feelings confirms it’s you and not me that ought to get out more. But, most critically, it makes me laugh.

    I spend every day of my working life meeting and talking to people about issues that are important to them. No one is talking about SSM. However, they do think and talk about job security, access to schools and hospitals and how they can get on with life.

    So, JD, you have my permission to go on with your nonsense for as long as you can draw breath. However, don’t expect me to take you seriously.

  31. JD @ 2235

    [Am I the only one that thinks calling LGBT people unnatural and abnormal is in fact bigotry?]

    Have you considered that by calling the Troll a bigot, you are denying him the right to be bigoted and homophobic?

    It is important to realise that anyone who stops a bigot from imposing their views on others, especially those they are bigoted against, is a hypocrite because they are denying bigots and homophobes their human rights. Shame.

  32. sprocket_@2238

    meanwhile in North Korea, they take their forestry policy very seriously

    REUTERS – North Korea’s vice premier was executed by firing squad this year after showing discontent with the policies of the country’s leader Kim Jong Un, a South Korean media report said on Wednesday.

    Yonhap News Agency cited an unnamed source as saying that the 63-year-old Choe Yong Gon, a former delegate for North-South cooperation, was executed, marking another death of a senior official in a series of high-level purges since Kim Jong Un took charge in late 2011.

    The Yonhap report said Choe had expressed disagreement with Kim’s forestry policies in May and had shown poor work performance. It provided no further details.

    Yikes, if I show that to people in Tasmania one part of the debate will say it’s as bad as that here. Another part might start getting ideas.

  33. [I was saying that I think only purely homosexual people would get same sex married.]

    Except polling of the general population shows a majority of respondents favour legal SSM. They can’t all be gay.

  34. Perhaps this demonstrates that the secular humanist revolution – the escape from the clerics and their doctrines – is still alive and well, at least in the post-Christian west. The Counter-Enlightenment still has its adherents, but they are losing. They’re now a cult, or a series of cults, each one defined more by their alienation from the dominant culture than by their ability to control it.

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