Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The third Newspoll under the auspices of Galaxy is the government’s worst poll result for a while, giving Labor a 54-46 lead after two successive results of 53-47.

The Australian reports the third Newspoll conducted under Galaxy’s auspices gives Labor a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the first two polls. Both major parties are at 39% on the primary vote, which is down one in the Coalition’s case and steady in Labor’s, while the Greens are up a point to 13%. Tony Abbott is steady at 33% approval and up one on disapproval to 61%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 29% and down two to 57%. There is a 38-38 tie on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1727.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Later in the day than usual, but Morgan has kept true to fortnightly form with its face-to-face plus SMS series, which has the Coalition at its lowest ebb since the February leadership spill with a primary vote of 36.5%, down 2.5% on last time. Labor is up 1.5% to 37% and the Greens have gained another half a point on last fortnight’s peak to reach 15.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, this reads as a blowout from 54-46 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago to 57-43, although the effect on previous election preferences is more modest – from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2930.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average has both major parties up a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 39% – with the Greens down one to 11%, and two-party preferred steady at 53-47. The monthly personal ratings suggest both leaders have bottomed out, with Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 53%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 29% and steady on 52%. Abbott scores better on preferred prime minister than elsewhere, coming out 36-32 ahead, compared with 37-30 a month ago. Other questions find 66% support for Bronwyn Bishop’s immediate resignation from parliament with 18% believing she should remain; 29% believing that booing of Adam Goodes was racist, compared with 45% for not racist; and 54% disapproval of a cut in Sunday penalty rates, compared with 32% approval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,364 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 44 of 48
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  1. [Also as mentioned above, according to Abbott we will have

    Election in 2016
    Referendum on aboriginal recognition in 2917 (50 years since 1967)
    The plebiscite or what ever on SSM in 2018
    And then another general election in 2019]

    Yes, as Mumble tweeted earlier, someone hadn’t really thought that through.

  2. GG
    [DN,

    Pretty weak response, comrade.]
    One deserves the other.

    Besides, I have people to scrutinise. Can’t hang around here all day thinking up witty responses, you know.

    😉

  4. Shea,

    Substitute any other societal group from Collingwood supporter to victims of cancer to stamp collectors and you come up with the same analysis.

    So what?

  5. Abbott has postponed the inevitable for a year. In doing so, he’s exposed deep divisions inside his own party and made himself more dependent than ever on the malevolent, rightist claque that rule the LNP. He’s also positioned his party as a rear-guard, as a museum for chauvinists.

    Maybe very few or even no votes will change hands as a result of this. Who knows? We will have to wait for the polling. But, on the face of it, many more voters favour reform than favour the LNP. The LNP are reinforcing the image they already have as being essentially indifferent to voter opinion.

    In this context, Abbott’s excursion into the deliberate and conspicuous suppression of human rights is likely, at the very least, to further consolidate the LNP’s losing poll position. So much the better.

    Labor has forced the LNP to bare their intentions. The public will be dismayed by what has been revealed.

  7. I think Kevin B, either late last night or early this morning, tackled the issue of what he called “deal breaking” issues.

    His point was that while single issues do not necessarily change governments, there are certain drag issues which stop a person voting for a party, they might just otherwise vote for, if it were not for that one issue.

    If I read him correctly, he outlines a couple of issues pertinent to him, which he stated, if to his favour it might cause him to vote one way, and not the other.

    It was a very thoughtful piece and worth a read if you plough back far enough.

  8. Greensborough Growler – when it comes to the issue of marriage equality (and YES that term DOES have meaning) you are little more than a troll seeking to provoke a reaction out of people who genuinely care about the issue.

  9. 2150

    It makes the government look messy and mean. That feeds into existing perceptions about this government and harms their chances of regaining votes.

  10. GG@2142
    [I was being all inclusive. I’m not sure if you are on speaking terms with a pot plant and in these PC times one needs to be all inclusive.]

    If you were being all inclusive you may hold a different position.
    I, (in my PC weakness) viewed it as a comment from someone who couldn’t even be bothered with transgender Australians.
    You should smoke a few pot plants GG, you might relax a bit.

  11. At what point do we draw the line on Gay rights?

    I mean the next thing that will be demanded is that Gay Sex is taught at Primary Schools.

    Being Gay is a natural occurance, but that doesn’t make it normal.

  13. In reference to my @2157, the Kevin Bonham piece was @1558 in the wee small hours of this morning.

    He coined the phrase “switch-retardant” in relation to key political issues which while not causing a person to change their vote, might on the other than, keep them with a particular party even though they might like a lot of things from that other party.

    He writes it better than me so go see for yourself all those wondering about the impact of the LNP’s SSM stuff and voting changing as a result.

  14. GG 2144

    Apologies, minor confusion. It was sprocket who apparently pulled the 10% figure from thin air. Difficult to keep clear who is saying what among the ‘this won’t change any votes!!’ brigade.

  15. If you were giving a prize for the most bat-shit crazy Lib in this Parliament, it wouldn’t be easy, but surely Connie FW would take the palm. She even looks bug-eyed nuts.

  16. Well the offensiveness is truly on parade tonight. Greensborough Growler and TrueBlueAussie make quite the pair.

    TrueBlueAussie – how about we draw the line at exactly the same place it’s drawn for everyone else – equality.

  17. GG
    Sorry but this is the first and last time I’m going to respond to your pontificating [I chose that word carefully] on any subject closely related to your … hmm what to call it tactfully …obsessions.
    Attempted dialogue with you at any level on such matters is completely pointless, your mind is set in concrete.
    Bye.

  18. 2151

    Abbott has actually said that the plebiscite would be separate from the Aboriginal Recognition Referendum?

    That sounds expensive and likely to annoy people who have to come out and vote again.

    There were 2 referendums on the same day in 1967 (the other, the Parliament referendum, lost and so well still have the nexus clause).

  20. TrueBlueAussie@2161

    At what point do we draw the line on Gay rights?

    I mean the next thing that will be demanded is that Gay Sex is taught at Primary Schools.

    Being Gay is a natural occurance, but that doesn’t make it normal.

    Just recently there was a post on how to edit the cccp tampermonkey script to exclude certain posters. Can someone remind me how to do this.

  21. shea mcduff – you are absolutely correct. I have had a lengthy “conversation” with GG in the past attempting to explain why I thought marriage equality was important, up to and including the mental and physical wellbeing of LGBT youth. But tonight, in conduct worthy of Happiness, ESJ and TBA, GG returns tonight with the exact same intellectually lazy talking points.

  22. [“If you were giving a prize for the most bat-shit crazy Lib in this Parliament, it wouldn’t be easy, but surely Connie FW would take the palm. She even looks bug-eyed nuts.”]

    Who?

  28. [2161
    TrueBlueAussie]

    As we know, bigotry is now compulsory in the LNP. You continue to demonstrate real aptitude for this particular depravity.

  29. ABC Current Affairs ‏@amworldtodaypm 2m2 minutes ago

    Inside the Kremlin’s ‘Troll Factory’ aimed at smothering dissent online. @NormanHermant reports http://ab.co/1J3rX1o #Russia #Putin

    The USA/AUS/UK/Europe is no different, it’s called Murdoch.

  30. poroti:

    For the reason you cite, it doesn’t matter whether it’s an Abbott promise or an Abbott whatever-but-not-an-actual-promise.

    Either way it’ll never happen while he’s leader.

  31. ratsak@2060

    I’m under the impression that hatred against Muslims have actually increased over the years.


    Well they’ve only really been here in significant numbers in the last 20-30 years. Bit hard to hate someone you don’t even know is here. Before that it was Vietnamese – remember all the fear of Triads? Before that Eastern Europeans and other wogs, before that the Chinese. Eventually they just become part of the furniture as people get to know them better.

    Unlike of course the Aboriginals have always copped it.

    There have been evidence of Muslims being here as seen in the Afghan camel drivers from early on in Federation. The first case of “terrorism” (and only one in the 20th century if I’m not mistaken) we had was the case of two men who plead allegiance to the Sultan of the Ottomans (which happened to be allied to the Kaiser). Of course from the lack of news preserved to this day, I can’t say for sure what sentiments were like in comparison to today. Nothing else significant happened till up to the 90s or early 00s but I guess people were more occupied with the other more pressing issues.

    bemused@2069

    Raaraa@2046

    I’m under the impression that hatred against Muslims have actually increased over the years. However at the same time, I think understanding of Muslims and other minority groups (including gays) have improved.

    So which is it?

    Has hatred against Muslims increased or decreased?

    I think you misunderstood me. I mentioned increased hatred (or a larger group of people demonstrating objection to the presence of Muslims in Australia). However, such events also made others take notice and try to learn more about the various Muslims demographies in Australia, hence more understanding. Polarising? Maybe, but mainly, less people being unaware of the existence of people of Muslim faith.

  32. JD,

    You seem to be implying the only people who care are those with whom you agree.

    A rather wankerish concept imho.

    But, hey. Go for your life!

  33. Shea,

    Sorry but this is the first and last time I’m going to respond to your pontificating [I chose that word carefully] on any subject closely related to your … hmm what to call it tactfully …obsessions.
    Attempted dialogue with you at any level on such matters is completely pointless, your mind is set in concrete.
    Bye.

  34. Re Poroti @2176: Abbott said he was ‘disposed’ to have a referendum or plebiscite on the subject (he used both terms).

    So what does that mean? Who knows? I suspect it means whatever he wants it to – like Direct Inaction, pretend to address the issue without actually having to do anything.

  36. I think besides the delight of Abbott sticking to the distant past and stupid path, which is excellent, any thinking person who has failed to notice Turnbull fail over and over and over again and still hold some love for him must abandon him when he fails to cross the floor. Not a man to put principal before his pocket and the backbench doesn’t pay much.

  38. Prefix

    [Lol at GG’s suggestion that only 10% of the population are gay, parents of gays or have close friends who are gay. Probably closer to 40% depending on how you define ‘close friend’. And you’re excluding all the loving grandparents, aunts, uncles, siblings (Mr Abbott excluded of course, love is an alien emotion for him wrt anyone other than himself) and cousins.]

    I think 25% is probably about right. 2% of the Australian population identify as exclusively homosexual. Lots more are bisexual or have had brief homosexual relationships but I don’t think they would be candidates for SSM.

    If you say an average person has 2 parents, one sibling and ten close friends, that makes 13 close relations per gay person so about 25%.

    Obviously when you include grandparents, cousins, aunts and uncles and friends/work colleagues it would have to be well over 50%.

  40. [“As we know, bigotry is now compulsory”]

    You should look up the meaning of the word Bigot before hurling insults.

    The lefties who use the word religiously to shout down those they disagree with are the real bigots, whereas I’m the complete opposite of a bigot being the freedom of speech loving individual that I am.

  41. [2182
    Greensborough Growler
    You seem to be implying the only people who care are those with whom you agree.

    A rather wankerish concept imho.]

    That’s rich coming from you GG. You pontificate on this issue as if your opinion was the only one that matters. You’re the one that opined that marriage equality was a meaningless marketing gimmick. You’re the one accusing people of shouting at the moon and using Morrison’s “secular bigot” bullsh*t.

    If anyone is being wankerish, it’s you.

  44. TBA

    [Being Gay is a natural occurance, but that doesn’t make it normal.]

    Define “normal”

    Having an IQ of greater than 140 isn’t “normal”. Being able to run 100m in 11 seconds isn’t normal. Having blond hair and brown eyes isn’t “normal”.

  46. Steve777

    “Disposed” . Jeebus that is worth less than an “at the appropriate time”.

    On the bright side by then Abbott may truly be disposed. Into “the trash can of history”.

  47. [2190
    TrueBlueAussie

    I’m the complete opposite of a bigot being the freedom of speech loving individual that I am.]

    You are so hilariously lacking in self-awareness, given the way you carried on about Gillian Triggs and Scott McIntyre, calling for them to be muzzled while on the other hand championing the right to freedom of speech for Barry Spurr and Andrew Bolt. You are a complete joke and a hypocrite.

  49. [Lots more are bisexual or have had brief homosexual relationships but I don’t think they would be candidates for SSM.]

    I can see certain married folk who stepped out on their husband/wife with a person of the same sex being opposed to marriage equality, but don’t think that bisexuals would necessarily be automatically opposed to SSM.

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