There’s a three-week gap between Newspolls as the new management takes effect, with Galaxy to assume the reins with a survey this weekend. That means the fortnightly release schedules of Morgan and Newspoll are now out of line, and will hopefully remain so. This week’s Morgan result, from 3282 face-to-face and SMS responses over the past two weekends, records a slight shift to the Coalition, but does off a particularly weak result last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 39%, Labor is down by the same amount to 36%, and the Greens are up half a point to 14%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred is down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5, while on previous election preferences the shift is from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47.
Also out this evening is a last hurrah from Newspoll in the shape of its quarterly aggregates of federal voting intention broken by state. GhostWhoVotes relates that these show a 50-50 split in New South Wales, compared with a 54-46 lead to Labor last time and consistent with the story being told of late by BludgerTrack; a Labor lead of 57-43 in Victoria, down from 59-41; a Labor lead of 52-48 in Queensland, compared with 50-50 last time; a 50-50 result in Western Australia, compared with an improbable Labor lead of 54-46 last time; and a 52-48 Labor lead in South Australia, down from 53-47 last time. Hopefully there will be a link to full tables from The Australian reasonably soon, as well as gender breakdowns. (UPDATE: All of that here, with a tip of the hat to Leroy Lynch).
Stay tuned for Essential Research, which as always will be with us later today.
UPDATE (Essential Research): For the first time in two months, Essential Research has budged from its 52-48 perch, with Labor’s lead in the fortnightly rolling aggregate increasing to 53-47. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged with the Coalition on 41%, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 1%, the only movement being a one-point increase for the Greens.
There is also a question on trust in particular media outlets, which as ever finds the Fairfax papers on top, The Australian slightly below, and News Corp tabloids further down still (responses were limited to those living in the papers’ relevant states). There appears to be a general downward trend here over results going back to 2011, most explicitly in the case of the Courier-Mail, which has adopted a highly partisan tone since that time, although The Age is well down over that time for reasons that are less clear to me. Even more entertainingly, the poll inquires on recognition and trust in various journalists, and finds Laurie Oakes, Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones leading on name recognition, but with the former topping the table on trust while the latter two occupy the bottom slots. Jon Faine of ABC Radio in Victoria also performed rather weakly among those who recognised him, for some reason.
There is also a question on funding of schools, for which the clear leader out of four options is having the federal government be “the main funder of all schools”. A question on whether Australian troops should fight Islamic State in Iraq records an even balance of support, with 41% in favour and 43% opposed, which is perhaps a little more hawkish than I would have guessed, and probably tells you something about reaction to the words “Islamic State”.
gt
[Either he is a credible economist or he is not]
Or he could be right at times and wrong in other times.
There are Geopolitical fairy godmothers & godfathers. Russia & China have an interest in Europe that moves European states away from the US embrace and towards rhe BRICs economies. They may quite willingly support Greece in some way.
[849
Libertarian Unionist]
It all seems very remote from us.
But in reality the EU monetary order is generating deflation, suppressing global growth and forcing up unemployment in some locations. These real-economy pressures have forced down global interest rates and distorted exchange rates, action that has helped both to eviscerate manufacturing in Australia and to drive up the price of land in the bubble markets of Sydney and Melbourne.
The dysfunction inherent in the EU system is exerting powerfully disruptive pressures across the global economy, including this one.
Ctar
So you a neo liberal austerity supporter? Thats the punitive targets Stiglitz was talking about.
I agree with him.
It was that austerity that was causing the riots in the street and giving right wing groups like golden dawn more support than they would otherwise have got.
Meher
Greece has only quite recently escaped the clutches of fascist generals. The chaos that follows austerity with 50% youth unemployment is certain to lead to serious problems and quite possibly the return of the generals.
Now UNLESS the Eurozone is willing to include clear military dictatorships in its zone, Greece will be kicked out anyway.
Greece has as its major revenue stream tourism. This cannot function with Greece on the Euro. it was IMBECILIC for Greece to ever join the Euro. The only way for a tourism centric economy to function is to keep their currency low,low, low.
The only other realistic immediate revenue stream for Greece is to lease out its islands to large military powers seeking warm water Mediterranean ports. Russia, USA then China are the only obvious candidates.
Of course IF Greece can weather the storm and get its economy functioning, it needs to develop a more sustainable long term economic strategy, developing more stable, less currency sensitive products.
Before the GFC Goldman Sachs and many other US banks encouraged and convinced numerous European banks and investors to buy their trashy CDOs and other dodgy packages. When the GFC hit lots of these entities were left holding some very smelly goods. One of those places was Greece – so although they may have lax tax loopholes and poor management of their social welfare (not to mention a very early pension entitlement) the fault for their predicament can be spread around quite a bit
DTT
Thats the scary part of the Abbott agenda. He is destroying manufacturing and giving us a service only economy just like Greece.
Interesting that people are standing to challenge the secrecy in our detention centres.
From my reading of that section of the Act:
[ 48 Disclosure to reduce threat to life or health
An entrusted person may disclose protected information if:
(a) the entrusted person reasonably believes that the disclosure is necessary to prevent or lessen a serious threat to the life or health of an individual; and
(b) the disclosure is for the purposes of preventing or lessening that threat. ]
They i doubt that anyone will really have an issue if they argue on the basis of that exemption.
Their problem will be that the Govt will try and bully them by threatening a case that they are doing it for political purposes so they will have to have a capacity to mount a defence even though its likely the Govt would lose.
So there is no doubt
@RT_com: Austerity not enough to save Greece – leaked IMF documents
http://t.co/nILMFVu8lu http://t.co/ykN56NfnJb
gt
[o you a neo liberal austerity supporter? ]
I’m simply saying no economist is infallible.
In other news…
For those Labor-leaning people who don’t like ‘mainstream media’, and those want Labor to take a more aggressive stance against it; Labor is going to launch its own Crikeyesque online news site in a few days called: The Labor Herald.
Basically it’ll be a website where Labor politicians and supporters write articles on Labor policy, politics and special interest groups. It’ll also have a section called “The Lab”, which apparently would be like Poll Bludger without the poll commentary.
Labor has also launched a crowdfunding website in order to fund it, and are seeking a $30, 000 goal.
[The Australian Labor Party has launched a new crowd-funding campaign to help fund its new newsletter The Labor Herald, seeking $30,000 on the Pozible website.
The launch of the “Crikey style” newsletter was first mooted in April of last year with the ALP finally appointing former Kidspot editor-in-chief Alex Brooks as editor in April this year.
According to the Pozible campaign the new service will be “a progressive website with a weekly email that’s FREE to everyone and anyone who wants to take a squiz.]
http://mumbrella.com.au/labor-launches-30000-crowd-funding-campaign-for-new-labor-herald-newsletter-302535
For those who would like to contribute, you can find the Pozible crowdfunder here:
http://www.pozible.com/project/195895
ctar
There is a big difference between credible and infallible so I do not get your point
DN Greece and Russia should get along just fine. I doubt the Greeks realise just what that will mean for them.
Guytaur the current creditors of Greece will take a substantial write-down one way of the other. That’s a given. But that’s not Greece’s problem going forward. Their problem for the future is who is going to fund their ongoing problems? DN suggests Russia but that will come at a price.
zoidlord
[And Labor is in bed with them.]
Constant mindless repetition is trolling IMV. You are better than that, surely.
[Or he could be right at times and wrong in other times.]
Correcto!
[I’m simply saying no economist is infallible.]
You get bonus marx for that one.
gt
[I do not get your point]
Fine. I can’t be bothered being in yet another circular argument.
@lizzie/864
“Constant mindless repetition”
Explain to the people why has Labor sided with Coalition Party then, it is because you cannot.
Thus this is fact, not “Constant mindless repetition”.
It is also a fact that Labor won’t stand up for itself to a bully.
dwh
I don’t know the solution and have never pretended to have it. I just dislike a very one sided view being presented.
Part of the reason I think the EU has to make a choice is simply the politics. If the EU choose to write down they have more control and a softer landing minimising losses. This has been their approach.
The mistake in my view has been the austerity regime going overboard as the creditors had no stake in the pain part that the Greek people have been feeling by cuts to services that are essential not excess waste.
As the IMF leak admits the austerity does not work to get a country out of debt anyway. So all that social upheaval and risk of falling into the hands of extremists Greece has had was for nothing. Of course now that austerity has brought about Syriza and the time taken to repay is now going to take longer meaning greater losses than is the EU creditors had gone softer on the austerity thing.
Do you know why sea levels are rising?
It’s cos we stop killing whales.
Q and A at a local meeting.
ctar
You get no marks. I said an economist is either credible or he is not after saying anyone that ignores his point is spinning BS.
Note I did not say argue I said ignore.
MB did argue. However he did not convince me as I saw his argument ignoring the basic point about austerity.
There was austerity. The targets that brought that austerity were punitive according to Stiglitz. It brought about a five year recession. His argument is with austerity for exactly the same reasons he praised Wayne Swan and Labor. So if he is right about Australia and Labor in the GFC he has to be right about Greece as its the same reasons
zoidlord
You’ve made your point, over and over and over. I get it.
Now Abbott has introduced another adjective for “death cult”. Islamist.
Guytaur@850. Stiglitz is a distinguished economist. But, contrary to what some of its practitioners might claim, economics is not a science like physics or chemistry. It’s a social science that can be used to guide policy, but it is by no means infallible and there is no such thing as a economic nostrum which cannot be legitimately contested by non-economists.
The people guiding the policies of the troika are also highly distinguished economists. They and Stiglitz would disagree about many things.
Stiglitz could be described as something of a “wet”. I am more of a “dry”: I have a soft spot for monetarism and the Chicago School, albeit I accept that some of their views have not stood the test of time. But neither have those of Adam Smith or Keynes, and they both remain well worth reading. I have read some of Stiglitz’s work and find it -as Keynes said of Marx – a little “confused”. But he makes some interesting points. And, as you point out, he’s a far more distinguished individual than I’ll ever be. So I do respect him.
As for Wayne Swan. Sorry, but no. The Federal Treasurer has few programmes to run or policies to implement. They don’t even have to prepare the Budget these days: the Finance Minister does most of that. His or her (if we ever get a her) main job is to sell the Government’s economic policies and economic credentials.
Swan couldn’t sell fireproof suits to the denizens of Hell. He never sounded like he believed a word he was saying. As everyone on here surely knows by now, I have very little time for KRudd, but is give him rather than Swan most of the credit for the GFC response. Swan is a smart guy in some ways – eg, he writes well about issues – but he has never been politically smart.
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 1m1 minute ago
The introduction of the cross-party same-sex marriage Bill will be two days shy of the 11th anniversary of Coalition+Labor voting to ban it.
More secrecy.
[The commissioner of Australia’s newly created Border Force says details of the agency’s “operational matters” will not be discussed publicly.
The agency — which merges the frontline functions of Customs and Immigration — officially begins today.
It will be responsible for immigration security at Australia’s air and sea ports and will also patrol Australia’s waterways, with Operation Sovereign Borders falling under its control.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-01/border-force-commissioner-operational-matters-roman-quaedvlieg/6586274
shea mcduff@869
Huh
BK
[Islamist.]
As suggested earlier it’s very ‘Crusader’ rhetoric.
@lizzie/871
Obviously not if you wanting to brush off my posts as ranting.
MB
Austerity happened. Stiglitz talks about the effects of austerity in the same way. That is with Australia and with Greece.
So your argument cannot be about austerity. It can only be about did austerity happen and if so why.
Well we know austerity happened the IMF has admitted as much see tweet above.
So austerity happened did it work. No. Why not? Stieglitz argues its punitive targets. I think it does not matter if the targets are punitive or not I still think austerity causes recession. This makes paying back debt slower not faster.
When you can argue Stiglitz is wrong on austerity and thus wrong about the the Labor Party in the GFC then you will have a point I may be convinced by
zoidlord
I’m not brushing you off as ‘ranting’, but you don’t have to make the same statement every day. Change the record.
@sarahinthesen8: MPs & Senators from all sides working together will make #MarriageEquaility finally happen. I’m looking forward to lots of Spring weddings!
A bit of an old news by now.
http://www.thelocal.dk/20150628/here-is-denmarks-new-government
Denmark centre-right party Venstre forms a minority government on its own after talks with other right-wing parties fail to come to an agreement.
All I can say is that at least there’s a lot more women in the cabinet but I suppose they got in there through merit /s
I’m surprised no one yet has suggested using the term “caliphate state” to refer to the ISIS controlled areas. I see newspaper refer it that way, but not directly, just more of a descriptive term.
@lizzie/880
IF you note that I regularly change the record if you read my posts (TPP, NBN, Health, Education, Jobs, Disability etc).
But it comes down that Labor are quiet happy to be in bed with the enemy while signing the life of ordinary citizens rights away, I’m going to be as loud as possible.
It effects everything we do, and how governments operate.
Raara
The topic was climate change.
Sea levels are rising.
Because we have stopped killing whales.
Therefore they are filling up the oceans and making the level rise.
I’m serious, this was actually stated and people actually nodded in agreement.
I live in a great place but some of the people around here …..
Which is actually something worth remembering when we react to the shenanigans of our pollies.
“@AlexGreenwich: Cross Party #MarriageEquality bill introduction on Aug 11, Coalition free vote decision Aug 18. Here’s hoping for Spring weddings”
zoidlord
I’m waiting until after the Labor Conference to work out what future Labor policy will be. I’m hoping to see some strong fightback after that.
guytaur: Australia’s response to the GFC didn’t have anything to do with austerity or “anti-austerity”. It was a stimulus package in a time of economic downturn by a government which had been running surpluses for years and had a AAA credit rating. It helped to avoid a recession.
The government of Greece cannot afford to pay its creditors. This is largely because it has run an unsustainable fiscal policy for years: a policy which was not so much about stimulating growth as about living beyond its means. And, despite the unsustainable levels of government spending, the country went into a recession anyway.
I will acknowledge that the austerity package has firmly kept them in a recession. I will also acknowledge that perhaps they should have kept out of the Euro: indeed, I am not a massive fan of the Euro anyway (and you should note that this is because I am much more right-wing than you: being anti-EC is basically a right wing position).
For me, the question is not one of what sort of further concessions the troika might be prepared to give to Greece, but what Greece might be prepared to offer to do to persuade the troika to provide more help. And, I’m afraid, that’s going to have to involve shifting government funding away from helping the population to live beyond its collective means and towards productive, job-creating investment.
Syriza are the political representatives of free lunch-eating Greeks on unsustainable welfare payments or in overpaid featherbedded jobs in government or GBEs. Understandably, the troika has given up on expecting Syriza to shift some government expenditure from unproductive to productive activities. They are now waiting for someone better to come along. Or rake for Greece to default and drop our of the Eurozone.
shea mcduff
There must be hundreds more whales than I imagined 😆
@lizzie/887
By then it will be too late as laws are already introduced and passed into Parliament, there for, change or removal of laws rarely happen.
Expect more of the same for future Labor if go own the path of the government.
Nine News Australia @9NewsAUS 30m30 minutes ago
Drug companies ‘paid $85m tax on $8bn’ http://bit.ly/1T4i1YH
“@ABCNewsBrisbane: #BREAKING Qld Chief Justice Tim Carmody resigns #qldpol”
MB
If you think Australia’s response had nothing to do with the GFC you missed why Australia stayed out of recession.
ABC Current AffairsVerified account
@amworldtodaypm
Pfizer refuses to clearly explain its complex corporate structure during a hearing into tax avoidance http://ab.co/1LBVWOM
Its not funny lizzie – we have to live here.
Well, actually it is funny – both funny ha ha and funny peculiar.
shea mcduff
[Do you know why sea levels are rising?
It’s cos we stop killing whales.
Q and A at a local meeting.]
More whales? I thought sea levels were rising because there were less sponges in the sea.
(Cos the sponges soak up the water… y’know.)
MB
Sorry stayed out of GFC buy not using austerity as rest of the world did.
Great to see detention centre doctors and social workers stand up to our creepy government’s intimidation and bullying.
No we wont be silent about child abuse – and you can prosecute us, bitches! We dare you to!
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/01/open-letter-on-the-border-force-act-we-challenge-the-department-to-prosecute
I salute these brave Australians, who are far better people than the government trying to silence them
kakuru,
The spongers all moved to Greece, apparently.
Hopefully the Carmody saga will operate as a solemn warning.