There’s a three-week gap between Newspolls as the new management takes effect, with Galaxy to assume the reins with a survey this weekend. That means the fortnightly release schedules of Morgan and Newspoll are now out of line, and will hopefully remain so. This week’s Morgan result, from 3282 face-to-face and SMS responses over the past two weekends, records a slight shift to the Coalition, but does off a particularly weak result last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 39%, Labor is down by the same amount to 36%, and the Greens are up half a point to 14%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred is down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5, while on previous election preferences the shift is from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47.
Also out this evening is a last hurrah from Newspoll in the shape of its quarterly aggregates of federal voting intention broken by state. GhostWhoVotes relates that these show a 50-50 split in New South Wales, compared with a 54-46 lead to Labor last time and consistent with the story being told of late by BludgerTrack; a Labor lead of 57-43 in Victoria, down from 59-41; a Labor lead of 52-48 in Queensland, compared with 50-50 last time; a 50-50 result in Western Australia, compared with an improbable Labor lead of 54-46 last time; and a 52-48 Labor lead in South Australia, down from 53-47 last time. Hopefully there will be a link to full tables from The Australian reasonably soon, as well as gender breakdowns. (UPDATE: All of that here, with a tip of the hat to Leroy Lynch).
Stay tuned for Essential Research, which as always will be with us later today.
UPDATE (Essential Research): For the first time in two months, Essential Research has budged from its 52-48 perch, with Labor’s lead in the fortnightly rolling aggregate increasing to 53-47. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged with the Coalition on 41%, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 1%, the only movement being a one-point increase for the Greens.
There is also a question on trust in particular media outlets, which as ever finds the Fairfax papers on top, The Australian slightly below, and News Corp tabloids further down still (responses were limited to those living in the papers’ relevant states). There appears to be a general downward trend here over results going back to 2011, most explicitly in the case of the Courier-Mail, which has adopted a highly partisan tone since that time, although The Age is well down over that time for reasons that are less clear to me. Even more entertainingly, the poll inquires on recognition and trust in various journalists, and finds Laurie Oakes, Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones leading on name recognition, but with the former topping the table on trust while the latter two occupy the bottom slots. Jon Faine of ABC Radio in Victoria also performed rather weakly among those who recognised him, for some reason.
There is also a question on funding of schools, for which the clear leader out of four options is having the federal government be the main funder of all schools. A question on whether Australian troops should fight Islamic State in Iraq records an even balance of support, with 41% in favour and 43% opposed, which is perhaps a little more hawkish than I would have guessed, and probably tells you something about reaction to the words Islamic State.