Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A slight move to the Coalition off a low base in this fortnight’s Roy Morgan poll, and Newspoll state breakdowns that confirm a picture of Coalition improvement being driven by New South Wales.

There’s a three-week gap between Newspolls as the new management takes effect, with Galaxy to assume the reins with a survey this weekend. That means the fortnightly release schedules of Morgan and Newspoll are now out of line, and will hopefully remain so. This week’s Morgan result, from 3282 face-to-face and SMS responses over the past two weekends, records a slight shift to the Coalition, but does off a particularly weak result last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 39%, Labor is down by the same amount to 36%, and the Greens are up half a point to 14%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred is down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5, while on previous election preferences the shift is from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47.

Also out this evening is a last hurrah from Newspoll in the shape of its quarterly aggregates of federal voting intention broken by state. GhostWhoVotes relates that these show a 50-50 split in New South Wales, compared with a 54-46 lead to Labor last time and consistent with the story being told of late by BludgerTrack; a Labor lead of 57-43 in Victoria, down from 59-41; a Labor lead of 52-48 in Queensland, compared with 50-50 last time; a 50-50 result in Western Australia, compared with an improbable Labor lead of 54-46 last time; and a 52-48 Labor lead in South Australia, down from 53-47 last time. Hopefully there will be a link to full tables from The Australian reasonably soon, as well as gender breakdowns. (UPDATE: All of that here, with a tip of the hat to Leroy Lynch).

Stay tuned for Essential Research, which as always will be with us later today.

UPDATE (Essential Research): For the first time in two months, Essential Research has budged from its 52-48 perch, with Labor’s lead in the fortnightly rolling aggregate increasing to 53-47. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged with the Coalition on 41%, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 1%, the only movement being a one-point increase for the Greens.

There is also a question on trust in particular media outlets, which as ever finds the Fairfax papers on top, The Australian slightly below, and News Corp tabloids further down still (responses were limited to those living in the papers’ relevant states). There appears to be a general downward trend here over results going back to 2011, most explicitly in the case of the Courier-Mail, which has adopted a highly partisan tone since that time, although The Age is well down over that time for reasons that are less clear to me. Even more entertainingly, the poll inquires on recognition and trust in various journalists, and finds Laurie Oakes, Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones leading on name recognition, but with the former topping the table on trust while the latter two occupy the bottom slots. Jon Faine of ABC Radio in Victoria also performed rather weakly among those who recognised him, for some reason.

There is also a question on funding of schools, for which the clear leader out of four options is having the federal government be “the main funder of all schools”. A question on whether Australian troops should fight Islamic State in Iraq records an even balance of support, with 41% in favour and 43% opposed, which is perhaps a little more hawkish than I would have guessed, and probably tells you something about reaction to the words “Islamic State”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,200 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. doGs. Ackerman on QANDA next week?? I am away to the sun and beach for the next couple of weeks so good excuse not to subject my self to the loathsome toad. 🙁

  2. So William, if you were to breakdown Newspoll’s state quarterly aggregate by seat projection; would I be right in assuming that it’ll be the same seat projection as seen on BludgerTrack, except Labor would gain an extra seat each in New South Wales and Queensland, and lose one in South Australia?

  3. Thanks Ghost, corrected.

    Something like that Millennial, but I assume you’re assuming uniform swings, whereas BludgerTrack uses a sum-of-probabilities method that might not produce the same result.

  4. Morning all. I did not see Four Corners last night. Was thee anything more about the Maffia infiltration of the Liberal party? Also, if it was really an issue for both major parties, was any significant Labor figure named?

  5. The prospect of Greece defaulting will worry many Australian Greeks, but have little impact on our economy. At this point the Tsipiras move for a referendum almost looks like calling their bluff. The ECB does not really want Greece to leave the EU, because that would mean a lot of bankers would lose their loans and have their errors exposed. I think the Greeks are better off out.

    China affects us more but I find it hard to judge how bad their situation really is, because of the opaqueness of their reporting. Meanwhile the USA continues to improve – surely good news for Clinton’s prospects?

  6. Socrates at 6

    The 4 corners program was no so much about suggestions of corruption by politicians as the capacity of using donations and fund raising events to get the ear of politicians, who can then get the ear of other politicians.

    The point about the Madafferi case that was not given appropriate weight was the fact that he had an Australian wife and children and to deport him would have split the family or forced his Australian born family to follow him to Italy. It was this ‘humanitarian’ aspect that his brother and associates worked on, targeting the most bleeding heart Liberals, like Marise Payne and Bruce Bilson and, indeed, Vanstone who was not as resolute as Ruddock.

    If you like, the issue is not so much about buying influence as buying the opportunity to influence. Which is very much the same issue as the Hockey case in which judgement is due today.

  7. [6
    Posted Tuesday, June 30, 2015 at 6:32 am | PERMALINK
    Morning all. I did not see Four Corners last night. Was thee anything more about the Maffia infiltration of the Liberal party? Also, if it was really an issue for both major parties, was any significant Labor figure named?

    In short, the program is in 2 parts over 2 weeks. Last night concentrated on setting up the mafia background of Frank Maddaferi. Saving allegations till next week it seems.

  8. Table – note the TPP for this Newspoll aggregate is 53-47
    [Newspoll: Coalition high in PM’s home state
    THE AUSTRALIAN JUNE 30, 2015 12:00AM
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    Support for the federal government has risen to an 18-month high in Tony Abbott’s home state of NSW but the Coalition continues to struggle in Victoria and South Australia.

    An analysis of Newspolls conducted for The Australian over the past three months shows Labor’s support in NSW has tumbled to its lowest level since before the 2013 election and recent gains in Western Australia have been lost, but the ALP’s support in Queensland has reached a five-year high.

    The June quarter analysis of 5771 voters surveyed by Newspoll shows satisfaction with Mr ­Abbott’s performance as prime minister rose in every state, among men and women and in every age group.]

  9. Nick Scali must have sold a lot of leather sofas to rustle up this sort of money

    [A Fairfax Media and Four Corners investigation has uncovered documents from a 2008 Italian court case in which prominent Australian-Italian politician Nino Randazzo accused Mr Scali of offering him a bribe to change sides in the Italian parliament and support Italy’s then president Silvio Berlusconi.

    “In particular, he told me that there was a blank cheque for me that I could fill in up to two million euro,” Mr Randazzo told Italian prosecutors in 2007. “He used, I remember well, the expression: ‘I want you to become a millionaire.’ ”

    Mr Randazzo was one of two Australians voted by the local Italian diaspora to seats in Italy’s parliament.]

  10. Meanwhile, Newly minted bankrupt Kathy Jackson has a loyal confidante in Michael Lawler. Though his support for her does come with consequences

    [Mr Irving questioned whether Ms Jackson might remove herself from bankruptcy and then continue to transfer the property away if a freeze order were not in place.

    In his affidavit, Mr Lawler said he had suggested the sale to Ms Jackson in June last year, and that agreements had been signed the next day, after the union broadened its case against her. A valuation in September priced the property at $1.2m, $100,000 less than Ms Jackson paid in 2012, a year before she sold her home in Melbourne for $1.8m.

    Mr Lawler said he had no intention of selling the NSW home and he had made a life commitment to Ms Jackson. “It is the home in which I wish to spend the rest of my life,” he said.

    Mr Lawler declared he regarded himself as Ms Jackson’s husband, revealing they had been intending to marry overseas since 2012.

    He said Ms Jackson’s “enemies” had worked to involve him publicly in the case since 2011, and accused The Australian of running “a concerted campaign of malicious attack” against him.

    “I say that each of the serious imputations of wrongdoing in that series of articles is false,” he said. “However, I am prevented by the conventions applying to my office from publicly defending myself by reference to such evidence that overwhelmingly contradicts allegations of wrongdoing.”]

  11. Q&A last night.
    Tony Jones did a good job of appearing calm under pressure.
    Paul Kelly’s face showed contempt when Ms Aly was discussing the rehabilitation of jihadis (white, brown and black).
    Tim Wilson. Temper, temper. Big ego. Did I really hear him say that he was working on the TPP? When will he start his real job?

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    More mafia investigations touch the Liberal Party.
    Shouldn’t these potential economic refugees “join the queue”?
    Martin Parkinson has a big spit.
    “I’m a changed woman” says Sophie M.
    Jonathan Holmes on the rush to prejudgement over Q and A.
    What should we call Islamic State?
    You’ll need a plan for these new pension changes.
    Greg Jericho makes a detailed examination of employment data.
    Is the university production line a road to nowhere?–students-wellbeing–success-and-job-prospects-20150629-gi0d4a.html

  13. Section 2 . . .

    We must change the way child abuse cases are handled.
    Frydenberg’s industry superannuation change is either pointless politics or economic vandalism. “STOP THE SPIVS!’
    Michelle Grattan reviews the comments from Marty Natalegawa on the tensions between Australia and Indonesia.
    Peter Martin on the TPP – What we don’t know might hurt us.–what-we-dont-know-may-hurt-us-20150629-gi04s9
    SMH editorial – Why Abbott should embrace the SCOTUS decision on SSM.
    Leyonhjelm’s moral thinness exposed.
    “Stop the waste!”
    “View from the Street” on how the government’s ABC tantrum is continuing nicely.

  14. Section 3 . . .

    Bruce Petty and our sporting PM.

    David Rowe and Tudge.

    Bill Leak amply demonstrates the bias of The Australian here.

    David Pope and Greece’s last gasp.

  15. [Bill Leak amply demonstrates the bias of The Australian here.

    It appears that Leak did not use the copy of the Australian in which they ran an extended interview with Mallah in his propaganda piece.

  16. [New ABC crisis : Abbott Govt extremists appear on #qanda disguised as pompous boring Murdoch hack & fake Human Rights Commissioner #auspol]

  17. [Only English speakers seem to experience so-called wind turbine syndrome, a public health expert has asserted to dispute growing complaints against wind farms.

    Facing a Senate inquiry yesterday, Sydney University Professor Simon Chapman said if it was the case wind farms caused sickness, why had people who had been living near turbines in other countries for 20 years not become ill? ]

  18. Only English speakers seem to experience so-called wind turbine syndrome, a public health expert has asserted to dispute growing complaints against wind farms.

    This is an interesting point about the political nature of the psychosomatic symptoms reported by some people who live near wind turbines. It mirrors climate change denialism, which is basically a phenomenon of the English-speaking world where neoliberal economics has been taken further than elsewhere. The more neoliberal a society is, the more common the ideologically motivated opposition to renewable energy and broader action to reduce carbon pollution.

  19. [Bill Leak amply demonstrates the bias of The Australian here.

    quite. Is it coincidence that he has become right wing since his head injury? Some days I see his cartoons and picture a drooling imbecile who gets told what to draw by Chris Mitchell. The hard right culture of the Oz must destroy people as paul kelly demonstrated on Q&A last night, and as Graeme Lloyd shows in his constant anti-environmental reporting. I imagine anything that doesn’t comply with Mitchell’s conservative queensland, latin- mass catholic, quadrant culture wars interpretation of what Rupe wants gets spiked, so to stay working for them you have to move further into the world of right wing raging/raving cultural warfare. sad.

  20. A party who is a future creditor can set aside or stop a transaction which sees monies or assets available for the creditor put out of reach.

    So here the HSU was, at the time of any agreement between Jackson and Lawler, a future creditor of Jackson in the sense that they may get a judgment for money from her sometime in the future.

    The “sale” of the residence sees an asset put of reach particularly if the sale was for nothing – ie Jackson gave it away for nothing or for a reduced price.

    If the court is satisfied it could stop the sale or compel its reverse (leaving to one side a potential issue of the Federal Court not being able to exercise state power and the law relating to setting aside sales being state).

    The bankruptcy trustee of Ms Jackson can make the same application within federal jurisdiction to stop or set aside the sale.

  21. morning all

    Thanks BK and others for today’s offerings.

    I caught up with 4 corners. Basically went over the granting of visa etc by Vanstone to Frank Madaferri. And the subsequent drug bust etc. Unsurprising Vanstone, Payne, Billson and Broadbent all declined an interview. Ruddock on the other hand, was happy to tell all and sundry that he sensibly had refused to do so when Minister.
    Next week 4 corners will look at the Madafferi connection with Labor.
    I was kinda hoping 4 corners would canvass the latest fundraiser here in Melbourne for Liberals.
    Anyhoo, the Millenium Forum was mentioned. This is the same one that Hockey has a judgment pending today

  22. [confessions
    Posted Tuesday, June 30, 2015 at 7:59 am | PERMALINK
    Morning all

    Sophie’s changed, eh? I guess we’ll see.]

    Sophie’s changed about as much as Abbott has changed. They’re both a pair of bastards who for political reasons are trying very hard to cover up the most obnoxious aspects of their personalities.

  23. I didn’t watch 4Corners last night, preferring to soak in the bath with a hot chocolate. But it would seem from the online media reporting this morning that not much was revealed that wasn’t already known.

  24. There was a delicious irony in statutory officer Tim Wilson, junior to Gillian Triggs but in the same area of interest, going the biff last night on qanda.

    He did not seem to appreciate the irony of an ABC critic being given time to vent his disdain on the ABC. Nor did his high office prevent him from chucking a tummy-up tantrum when Tony Jones rightly pointed out that his comments about free speech might well apply equally to Mallah.

    Where was Bronwyn Bishop to wag her finger at Tim for mixing politics with his position as a protected Human Rights Commissioner?

    She must have been furious I tell youse, FURIOUS, at this bloke for getting all partisan, when the proper way to be an opinionated statutory office holder was to do what she did: get elected and then abuse her statutory position hell for leather anyway.

    No doubt Bronnie will be having a quiet word with Tim today, instructing him on the protocols and proprieties of mixing politics with position.

  25. [ Greece May Not Even Have The Funds To Conduct A Referendum

    …even the Greek side is rather confused and is now essentially telling people to vote on a deal that was proposed once (on June 25) and may or may no longer be relevant.

    …the problem for Greece may not be one of wording….. but a far simpler one: not having the funds to actually conduct it!

    According to Germany’s FAZ, “the Greek Court also estimates that the referendum will cost around 110 million euros, according to a well-informed policy analyst.”

    Furthermore, the Athens Chamber of Commerce added there is no paper to print some 20 million requred ballots! ]

  26. Darn:

    Mirabella’s spiteful, vituperative nature is matched only by Abbott’s. Except he does a better job of masking his.

  27. Vic


    Justice White

    Court Room 18C
    South Australia Registry, Court No. 3 Level 5

    2:00 PM Judgment
    1. NSD491/2014
    by Videoconference
    2. NSD489/2014
    by Videoconference
    3. NSD492/2014
    by Videoconference

  28. Darn

    Tony has changed – for the worse.

    [In recent weeks Abbott’s zealous approach has gone far beyond political point-scoring and come to threaten the very fabric of Australian democracy. It has subverted cabinet, compromised the doctrine of the separation of powers, and pushed the Liberal Party away from its moderate conservative foundations towards a populist, reactionary, anti-democratic frontier. This will fundamentally alter the party’s image and, in the process, damage the body politic and the country’s standing internationally.

    If Australians were asked to design a constitutional system from scratch, Abbott wrote in 1995, one of the things they would demand is “strong checks and balances on the executive, because even the best government sometimes gets too big for its boots”. He now appears deaf to the principles that saw him enter federal parliament in 1994. The politician who built his political career defending constitutional monarchy has done more than any other prime minister to undermine the Westminster system of government, increasing executive power at the expense of basic democratic freedoms.

    It’s important to note, too, the counterproductive nature of the government’s essentially punitive approach to foreign fighters, one that will surely result in entrenching grievances within the radical fringes of the Muslim community. Rather than flexing his muscles for public display, a more intelligent response from Abbott would be to take the heat out of the issue by engaging the Muslim community. To prevent more danger, the government would seek to understand why foreign fighters choose to leave; how they might be drawn off the battlefield or brought to justice rather than cut loose; and, finally, how they might be rehabilitated, where possible, in order to persuade others not to follow in their footsteps. In Denmark, a country with the second highest number of foreign fighters per capita in Europe, the city of Aarhus has introduced a program to assist combatants’ reintegration into the community and succeeded in stemming the flow of fighters to Syria.]

  29. I don’t think that there was anything on last night’s Four Corners that would much trouble either side of politics – the power of donations to open doors, which we already knew. No suggestions of actual corruption.

    There is part 2 next week, we’ll see what, if anything, that brings.

  30. Yep, those criticising Mallah’s appearance got down to some pretty desperate lines last night, such as Paul Kelly’s criticism that Mallah’s question was incoherent.

    Apparently free speech is only applicable to those who have the education and experience to make their points succinctly.

    Given the background of the average disenchanted youf, I would suggest that means we’re not going to hear their views any time soon.

  31. …so I think we’re waiting for a private school educated young lawyer to go to Syria, become disenchanted with ISIS, and then return to Australia before we have someone Paul Kelly would accept as an authentic voice.

  32. lizzie

    [Abbott wrote in 1995, one of the things they would demand is “strong checks and balances on the executive, because even the best government sometimes gets too big for its boots”. ]
    What odds that he only had that opinion because the Labor Party were then in power ?

  33. [ They’re both a pair of bastards who for political reasons are trying very hard to cover up the most obnoxious aspects of their personalities. ]

    Blunt but fair.

    Been thinking about the performance of Wilson and Kelly on QANDA last night. One line i noticed was when they kept coming out with “the real argument is” or this is not about free speech this is” to try and rebut and shut down the other panel members. That’s remarkably rude as it implies that every one else is too stupid to see the issue. Regardless that there IS a perfectly valid free speech issue here.

    They were really flailing to try and an impression that there this whole thing was deliberately stirred up Daily terrorgraph style by the ABC which is a bit of a stretch for even these hardened hacks.

    I think Wilson in particular was angry that people were not letting him set the agenda and frame the discussion. He really played the precious petal last night which surprised me as he is usually a supercilious nasty git but more polished about it. Kelly is just sad.

  34. [donations to buy influence is kinda corrupt.]

    As I said earlier at 9, it was not so much donations to buy influence but donations to buy the opportunity to influence.

    It will be more of the same, I suspect, next week with ‘Ndrangheta buying the opportunity to bend the ears of Labor politicians.

    What is really going on is not so much outright corruption but something more insidious. As I noted above, there was a case for allowing Madafferi to remain in Australia. The opportunity to bend ears meant that case was highlighted to politicians and, eventually, Minister Vanstone, while the case against – his extensive criminal record – was minimised and covered over. The 4 Corners program did exactly the opposite – mentioning only in the briefest passing reference the immediate family connections with Australian born citizens, while highlighting the serious criminality, including charges of which he was acquitted (almost certainly wrongly – but that’s what happens).

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