ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings sink still further in the latest result from ReachTEL, but the Coalition yields only a modest dividend on voting intention.

ReachTEL has its latest more-or-less monthly federal poll result this evening for the Seven Network, and it shows Labor’s lead at its narrowest since October, at 52-48 compared with 53-47 at the previous poll on May 13. This one was conducted last night, from a sample of 2907. The primary votes are 41.9% for the Coalition, up 0.8%; 37.0% for Labor, down 1.3%; 13.1% for the Greens, up 1.0% (offering further support for their recent upward trend); and a new low of 1.3% for Palmer United, which had hitherto been doing relatively well out of ReachTEL, down 0.9% on last time. The poll also credits the Coalition with a surprisingly narrow 52.6-47.4 lead on the question of which party is more trusted to handle national security.

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have taken another hit – his combined very good and good rating is down from 23.4% to 20.0%, while poor and very poor shoots up from 39.2% to 46.2%. Tony Abbott’s net rating is down for the first time since the February leadership spill vote, his combined very good and good rating of 27.5% comparing with 28.1% last time, while poor plus very poor edges up from 52.0% to 52.5%. Furthermore, Shorten maintains a 56.3-43.7 lead as preferred prime minister, continuing ReachTEL’s record of strong results for him on this measure, which is conducted differently from other pollsters in that there is no uncommitted option.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,093 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. “@riotersbloc: So they spend 40 minutes talking about Zaky but as soon as white supremacist violence is brought up it’s time to move on. Good one #qanda.”

  2. “@MattAkersten: How will Paul Kelly relate science/God and black holes to rolling heads at the ABC? He’ll have a go. #qanda”

  3. zoomster@2046

    Paul Kelly ‘the question was incoherent’.

    So the only people who should be allowed to ask questions on the ABC are apparently those with plummy accents who can enunciate their thoughts coherently.

    I thought the question was very clear but it’s only the Libs who chose to obfuscate the meaning and take it completely out of context.

  4. [Paul Kelly ‘the question was incoherent’.]

    There are incoherent and offensive questions on Q&A week in and week out. Is it only a crime when the Liberals and their fanboys and gals declare it so?

  5. The real issue being missed by Q&A tonight is that Zaky’s first Q to Ciobo was articulate, personal & pertinent , the problem started with Ciobo being an incompetent idiot that couldn’t answer the question, so he inflamed the situation. Zaky’s just reacted as most would having been insulted & vilified.

  6. Fascinating. This has been going in parts of Latin American for a decade now.

    [Melbourne’s radical experiment in democracy has reached a momentous conclusion, with the City Council announcing on Friday it will accept nearly all the recommendations of a 10-year financial plan developed by a citizens’ jury. That a group of 43 randomly selected Melburnians meeting over six weekends developed sound policy that is now being implemented is a profound result for anyone despairing at the state of our democracy. ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/experiment-pays-off-melbourne-peoples-panel-produces-robust-policy-20150628-ghzoz4.html

  7. TPOF

    [Paul Kelly ‘the question was incoherent’.]
    Which means for “The Eminence” it does not compute with his world view of All Hail the Lord Rupert.

  8. Look, I thought Mallah’s point was clear, too – but very few on the QandA panel or of those in the media discussing it this week seem to have understood him at all, so I assumed it was just me.

  9. Note this in particular, when you put people in charge rather than closed-minded wonks. The death of stupid ideas follows rapidly:

    [‘The council also accepted a recommendation for a prudent increase in borrowing to fund city infrastructure, with debt levels to be constrained to a AA credit rating (currently AAA). It seems the stupidity of the “all debt is bad” argument has finally been overcome, at least in Melbourne.’]

  10. lefty e

    It’s the basic tenet of representative democracy – that we elect someone who, when presented with all the pertinent information, would make the same decisions we would make ourselves.

    On that basis, it’s also perfectly logical to expect that random groups of citizens, presented with all the pertinent information, make the same decisions a group of politicians would.

  11. zoomster

    Its an idea that has served us well with Juries for centuries when life and liberty at stake. I do like it for politics too.

  12. [Tim Wilson is a twit, just a twit.
    We pay this fool 300k a year?]

    Actually, $389,000. Plus a vehicle. And phone expenses.

  13. But they made different decisions zoomster.

    They upped rates on developers, and said worrying too much about debt was stupid and counter productive.

    The argument here is that direct deliberative democracy can make reform easier for risk-averse representatives.

  14. Paul Kelly had the affect and mannerisms of a man whose daughter had just announced she was marrying a Scotsman. Tim Wilson on the other hand was the brother who leaned on the nervous groom and gave him the “hurt her and I’ll kill you” speech.

  15. [Look, I thought Mallah’s point was clear, too – but very few on the QandA panel or of those in the media discussing it this week seem to have understood him at all, so I assumed it was just me.]

    Its a willful misunderstanding to promote a particular pov and the political advantage that goes along with it. Mallah made his point clearly – he didn’t speak clearly but it was obvious what he said. That the attitude of Ciobo would convince some people that they had no place in Australia. Aly was right tonight to remind everyone that no one thing causes radicalisation, but surely what Ciobo said and did would be one more brick in a wall between alienated muslims and mainstream Australia.

    No mention of the UPF either. Which is good. Cos they want publicity more than Daesh does.

  16. This has been going in parts of Latin American for a decade now.

    Note that this is basically what the ‘Citizens Assembly’ was supposed to be, that was widely pilloried by all and sundry, but particularly the more leftish/Greenish members here.

    I think this jury style decision making is actually an old element of democratic process. The idea of having a group that is representative of the broader community (rather than experts or politicians), but is provided with evidence/input from experts – and yes, necessarily, vested interest lobbyists – and comes to its own conclusions outside of the political process seems powerful.

  17. [ Whoa, hold the front page! Someone at a function somewhere put their hand out &John Howard shook it. #4corners you’re being REALLY silly ]
    Paul Kelly could probably write a good column about the failures of judgement which led to that meeting, if he was of a mind

  18. [Whoa, hold the front page! Someone at a function somewhere put their hand out &John Howard shook it. #4corners you’re being REALLY silly]

    I’m not suggesting Howard was corrupt…but I think it’s fair to say that there are some questions he has to answer.

  19. [Whoa, hold the front page! Someone at a function somewhere put their hand out &John Howard shook it. #4corners you’re being REALLY silly]

    Yes. It’s not as if it were Bill Shorten whose hand was grasp. Then there really would be questions to answer. And when those were answered there would be more questions to answer. Sometimes even the same question would require answering again and again in the hope that a different answer would be given and then the press corpse would have him by the short and curlies.

  20. No one’s suggesting Howard was involved. But clearly, Broadbent and Vanstone have some serious questions to answer.

    And more broadly: this is what happens the the LNP refuses to reform political donation laws.

  21. [ I’m not suggesting Howard was corrupt…but I think it’s fair to say that there are some questions he has to answer. ]
    What would the question be..”did you shake hands with this person?”
    the questions should be asked of whoever organised the meeting

  22. [@QandA #qanda – isn’t Tim Wilson a statutory officer? Why the hell is he engaged in partisan politics? Remember @GillianTriggs ?]

    Indeed. The monstrous hypocrisy of the Federal LNP.
    In fact, forget hypocrisy: this is simply incoherence.

    How long is it since the LNP said that Gillian Triggs should not go on ‪#‎qanda‬ as a statutory officer? Was it 10 or 15 minutes ago?

  23. [ the questions should be asked of whoever organised the meeting ]
    What the heck, why doesn’t every news organisation just go to town on it and really find out how our PM was placed within arms reach of an alleged Mafia figure

  24. [why doesn’t every news organisation just go to town on it and really find out how our PM was placed within arms reach of an alleged Mafia figure]

    Obviously because it was not a Labor leader.

  25. paapstef

    [I’m not suggesting Howard was corrupt…but I think it’s fair to say that there are some questions he has to answer.

    What would the question be..”did you shake hands with this person?”
    the questions should be asked of whoever organised the meeting]

    Sorry I should have included a :). The whole “questions to answer” thing has been so overused by the LNP and the GG that it seemed a good opportunity to give them some of their own.

  26. [What would the question be..”did you shake hands with this person?”]

    It’s not important what the questions be. What is important is that they Must Be Answered.

  27. Watching QANDA at the moment.

    Fwark. Wilson and Kelly looking like fools. Seriously, they are way out of their depth here. Seemingly annoyed that the rest of the panel just wont agree that they should set the agenda.

  28. imacca @ 2088

    Wilson is completely out of his depth. Kelly was once quite an incisive thinker, but old age has caught up with him and taken everything except pompous hubris.

  29. QANDA worth watching tonight. Plibersek not saying much but considered and reasonable when she does.

    Wilsons hissy fit at Jones was a hoot, but Wilson has been looking angry all night.

    Expect ooh ahh baaaaad abc in the Oz tomorrow. 🙂

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