ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings sink still further in the latest result from ReachTEL, but the Coalition yields only a modest dividend on voting intention.

ReachTEL has its latest more-or-less monthly federal poll result this evening for the Seven Network, and it shows Labor’s lead at its narrowest since October, at 52-48 compared with 53-47 at the previous poll on May 13. This one was conducted last night, from a sample of 2907. The primary votes are 41.9% for the Coalition, up 0.8%; 37.0% for Labor, down 1.3%; 13.1% for the Greens, up 1.0% (offering further support for their recent upward trend); and a new low of 1.3% for Palmer United, which had hitherto been doing relatively well out of ReachTEL, down 0.9% on last time. The poll also credits the Coalition with a surprisingly narrow 52.6-47.4 lead on the question of which party is more trusted to handle national security.

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have taken another hit – his combined very good and good rating is down from 23.4% to 20.0%, while poor and very poor shoots up from 39.2% to 46.2%. Tony Abbott’s net rating is down for the first time since the February leadership spill vote, his combined very good and good rating of 27.5% comparing with 28.1% last time, while poor plus very poor edges up from 52.0% to 52.5%. Furthermore, Shorten maintains a 56.3-43.7 lead as preferred prime minister, continuing ReachTEL’s record of strong results for him on this measure, which is conducted differently from other pollsters in that there is no uncommitted option.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,093 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  3. “@MikeCarlton01: Now that publicly declining TV appearances is so fashionable, please note I will no longer be available to go on Ch 10’s The Bolt Report.”

  6. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/29/us-usa-court-gaymarriage-texas-idUSKCN0P900F20150629

    [County clerks in Texas who object to gay marriage can refuse to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples despite last week’s landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling requiring states to allow same-sex marriage, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said on Sunday.

    The nation’s top court said on Friday that the U.S. Constitution provides same-sex couples the right to wed, handing a victory to the American gay rights movement.

    Paxton said in a statement that hundreds of public officials in Texas were seeking guidance on how to implement what he called a lawless and flawed decision by an “activist” court.

    The state’s attorney general said that while the Supreme Court justices had “fabricated” a new constitutional right, they did not diminish, overrule, or call into question the First Amendment rights to free exercise of religion.]

    Texans go feral

  7. First we’re not getting a Newspoll. Now we’re allegedly getting “a stinker”.

    Does anyone know for sure what the hell is going on?

  13. The rebranded Galaxy run Newspoll robopoll will be out sooner or later. Not sure if it’s tomorrow or next week.

  14. briefly

    A number of counties in Alabama have declared they will perform no marriages of any sort so as to avoid same sex marriages.

  15. I was told by someone who I’d have thought would have known that the last Newspoll was, like, the last Newspoll. Best as I can tell, Gloryconsequence’s source was a poor quality one even by the standards of Twitter. Still, who knows. What I’m actually hoping for this evening is that one last quarterly aggregate from Newspoll.

  16. Re Newspoll.

    Perhaps the quarterly breakdown will be released tonight ?

    If so I will take a guess of 52-48 to labor for the June quarter.

    But I have no real idea, so there you go.

    cheers.

  18. Darn:

    In the comments on his latest post, Mumble replies to a question about it that the new polling starts next week – either Monday or Tuesday.

  19. [2014
    poroti

    briefly

    A number of counties in Alabama have declared they will perform no marriages of any sort so as to avoid same sex marriages.]

    The killjoy solution..unbelievable.

  20. I think it’s safe to go with William. We will have to be patient and wait until the polling gurus work themselves out.

  23. Mind you the quarterly aggregates March to June will show a move away from Labor and Shorten if that’s what Glory is referring to.

  24. [If so I will take a guess of 52-48 to labor for the June quarter.]

    The average of their results over that period – and that’s all the headline figure on the aggregate would be – was 51.8-48.2. So I’d say you’re probably right.

  25. [A number of counties in Alabama have declared they will perform no marriages of any sort so as to avoid same sex marriages.]

    This is hilarious. By their own bigotry they render the institution of marriage defunct and meaningless. I wonder if they realise this likely outcome.

  26. [Mike Carlton ‏@MikeCarlton01 7m7 minutes ago
    In our audience tonight, 237 AFP officers and…#qanda]

    😆

  28. EU President: Juncker to the Greek people.

    “You should not commit suicide because you’re afraid of death”:

    After that, how could they possibly vote “No.”

  31. [2022
    poroti

    briefly

    It fits with the mental image that I get when seeing/hearing the word Alabama.]

    I know the feeling…strange-lands…forbidding really

  33. Paul Kelly is a very sad case. He was once reasonable, but is now so partisan and so obviously doing the bidding of Murdoch. His article last week ranting that the Pope was a Marxist because he criticised corporate capitalism (and therefore should not be listened to) just shows how far over the shark he has jumped.

  36. On Q&A
    Tim Wilson says Mallah should not have been given a platform which along with kicking him out of the country and taking his citizenship away does not silence him or take away his free speech.
    ( the audience laughed)

  39. Bad ABC. Very Bad ABC. Naughty. Naughty. Naughty.

    Please take uncle Paul’s advice and go off to the Australian to learn good balanced journalism in the Australian interest.

    And this is not about Freedom of Speech, according to the ‘Freedom to spout right wing ideology’ Commissioner. And he would know. After all, why else would he be occupying a taxpayer funded $300k a year job?

  40. Wow good work by Plibersek. She got Kelly to say the government language and behaviour on terror fear unacceptable.

  41. Things are getting very funky in Europe, with the Elites running around like headless chooks. From the Guardian

    [When the full tale of the eurozone crisis is finally written, the last hour deserves a special mention.

    Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, has made a remarkable intervention into the Greek crisis in what looks like desperate, last-gasp bid to prevent the country ploughing out of the eurozone.

    He has effectively told the Greek people that they are choosing between the euro and the exit door on Sunday, that their government has lied to them, and that he has been their friend and ally at the negotiating table.

    Underneath it all, the desperate fear that the European project is swerving off course and about to lose its first member.

    Juncker confirmed the claim that Greece’s creditors were prepared to discuss debt relief as part of a future aid deal, before Alexis Tsipras shattered hopes of a breakthrough last weekend.

    A clearly wounded Juncker spoke of feeling “deeply distressed and saddened by the spectacle that Europe gave last Saturday”.

    In a single night, the European conscience has taken a heavy blow. Goodwill has somewhat evaporated.

    Crucially, Juncker is not offering a new compromise. Instead, he is arguing that the Commission was making a fair proposal – not “stupid austerity” – for the Greek people.

    But his comments on the referendum are jaw-dropping: telling Greeks to vote Yes in Sunday’s referendum is one thing, but warning “not to commit suicide for fear of death” is another level altogether.

    And he has raised the stakes in Sunday’s referendum to the highest level possible, by warning that “the whole planet” will see a no vote as a declaration that Greece wants to leave Europe.]

  42. Tim Wilson is on the public tit for 300k PA yeah?
    Eff me. Should have been a public servant. Seems the IPA only wants to shrink the public service when it suits them.
    Who is the woman in the white coat – I like her.
    Tanya not strident enough, Jones seemingly subdued.

  43. No, Paul Kelly, the points Mallah tried to get across were —

    i. He spent years in jail for a crime but was later acquitted by a jury. Under the proposed law, he would have been stripped of his citizenship. It is obvious from his subsequent behaviour (inflammatory language excepted) that he was nothing more than a brash young man making exactly the kind of mistake we all agreed (when discussing the Bali 9) young people make.

    He is an example – and presented himself as that – of why putting the power to remove citizenship in the hands of a Minister would be counter productive.

    (And, it being a complex argument, he wasn’t able to articulate it clearly).

    ii. Ciobo then said that, despite the fact Mallah had been judged by a court of law to be innocent, that he should be deported anyway.

    Mallah reacted by saying that that kind of attitude was exactly what led to radicalisation.

    And he is right. Many people have argued here that we play into the hands of terrorists when we strip away basic rights and tenets of Western civilisation in the name of fighting them. The more we do this, the more our society becomes like those we’re supposedly rejecting.

    If we make it clear to certain people that they have no place in our society (particularly when there is no sound reason for doing so) then obviously they will look to other societies where they feel more welcome.

  44. SF – Kelly’s fawning tributes to Uncle Rupe during the Oz’s 50th birthday were perhaps the most vomitous things I have ever seen in print (and I’ve read a lot).

  46. Paul Kelly ‘the question was incoherent’.

    So the only people who should be allowed to ask questions on the ABC are apparently those with plummy accents who can enunciate their thoughts coherently.

  47. Can you imagine Tim Wilson inquiring into treatment of asylum seeker children in detention? On the basis of his performance as freedom (sic) commissioner, he would recommend that any who complained be towed out to sea and tossed overboard.

  49. Right

    Now we are told Malcolm Turncoat wants to help the ABC. Like Torquemada wanted to help heretics by burning them at the stake.

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