ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings sink still further in the latest result from ReachTEL, but the Coalition yields only a modest dividend on voting intention.

ReachTEL has its latest more-or-less monthly federal poll result this evening for the Seven Network, and it shows Labor’s lead at its narrowest since October, at 52-48 compared with 53-47 at the previous poll on May 13. This one was conducted last night, from a sample of 2907. The primary votes are 41.9% for the Coalition, up 0.8%; 37.0% for Labor, down 1.3%; 13.1% for the Greens, up 1.0% (offering further support for their recent upward trend); and a new low of 1.3% for Palmer United, which had hitherto been doing relatively well out of ReachTEL, down 0.9% on last time. The poll also credits the Coalition with a surprisingly narrow 52.6-47.4 lead on the question of which party is more trusted to handle national security.

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have taken another hit – his combined very good and good rating is down from 23.4% to 20.0%, while poor and very poor shoots up from 39.2% to 46.2%. Tony Abbott’s net rating is down for the first time since the February leadership spill vote, his combined very good and good rating of 27.5% comparing with 28.1% last time, while poor plus very poor edges up from 52.0% to 52.5%. Furthermore, Shorten maintains a 56.3-43.7 lead as preferred prime minister, continuing ReachTEL’s record of strong results for him on this measure, which is conducted differently from other pollsters in that there is no uncommitted option.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,093 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [“Many Australians become anxious when their Prime Minister goes overseas”]

    Ch7 news had no political news except 30 seconds of Abbott in Singapore wearing a balloon hat (the long thin ones that clowns use at children’s parties). Not sure why he was wearing it but he looked suitably stupid, you might say an embarrassment to Australia. That’s one reason why “Many Australians become anxious when their Prime Minister goes overseas”.

  2. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-edges-labor-towards-adopting-coalitions-boat-turnback-policy-20150629-gi0hog.html
    [Mr Shorten twice avoided explicitly stating Labor would adopt the policy on Monday and criticised the secrecy attached to Operation Sovereign Borders, the government’s name for its tow back strategy, but his comments have been widely interpreted within the Labor Party as preparing the ground for a policy shift.

    The Opposition Leader’s comments stand in stark contrast to October 2014, when he slapped down a suggestion from Mr Marles that Labor “might” keep the policy.

    However last month, Mr Shorten signalled a harder line on the policy – a move backed by the NSW Labor Right faction, but which has enraged Labor’s Left faction.

    But a member of the Labor Right faction said it was “inevitable” the turn-backs policy, which has so angered Indonesia, would be adopted.

    “It’s all about the politics now. Compare Bill’s reaction last year to now. He has opened the door to it,” the MP said.]

    Labor – the enabler. It voted with the coalition to maintain the shroud of secrecy over the offshore detention facilities and ensure the continued rape of children.

    “It’s all about the politics”

    Treating human beings with humanity, compassion or basic decency just doesn’t factor into it so long as power for power’s sake is the goal.

    To hell with the innocent children.

    Who cares.

  3. GG

    bemused is right in his description of you. Despite you gutter language you cannot change the numbers of Senators;

    Just like the others. Own up to the Labor failure. It wasn’t the only one.

    The good thing of course is the Labor years were much much better than now with legislative success and progress for the nation,

    Learn from the failure so Labor does not get defeated by LNP dog whistling on AS.

  5. [Victoria’s first prototype wave power unit is ready to be installed off the state’s south-west coast later this year, with its builders saying it could be the start of a “new era” for renewable energy.

    If successful, the $21-million project, undertaken by BioPower Systems Pty Ltd, is expected to feed 250 kilowatt hours of renewable energy into the national grid.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-29/victorias-first-wave-power-unit-to-be-launched-in-november/6581942

  6. [1911
    lizzie]

    The maltreatment of refugees is intentional punishment, designed to impress upon voters that Abbott is willing and able to be quite ruthless. The people are his trophies – his political plunder – and he will dispose of them as he pleases.

    This is Abbott the Despot.

  7. [ Tony, please come back. I can’t sleep at night, scared that you may never return, lest the scary foreigners get you. This country needs your warm, guiding hand back at the helm ASAP. ]

    oooh Way Creepy.

    And you had better be careful in case Tony reads that and decides that hunting you down to hold you hand for a photo op (4 flag??) is the thing to do. 🙁

  8. [1923
    BK

    Abbott speaking in Singapore

    “Many Australians become anxious when their Prime Minister goes overseas”

    What a narcissistic thing he is.]

    What an extraordinarily deluded clown he is. Many of us hope he leaves and never returns. He is such a fool.

  10. [1928
    Pegasus

    The Greens have attempted to get a federal ICAC legislated several times over the years.]

    Credit to them. Hope they succeed. 🙂

  12. BK @ 1923

    Abbott is correct: Australians are nervous when their Prime Minister goes overseas, but not for the reasons he’s thinking.

  13. Greens had an opportunity to prevent the two majors from converging on a solution and refused to take it because they wanted to avoid being (unfairly) blamed for the result of picking the lesser of two evils.

    A good country doesn’t choose to treat people in an evil way. The onus is on the major parties to join the Greens in righting the wrongs of Australian policy in this area.

  14. The two majors set the overall direction by virtue of each representing significantly more of the population. That’s what the Greens have to live with. Whether they like it or not, the Greens choice is not between offshore and onshore, it’s between different flavours of offshore.

    By that reasoning if two parties representing a majority of the voters support slightly different torture policies, the Greens should have to choose between two different flavours of torture.

    I think you are confused about the purpose of a political party. It needs to be grounded in values. If the other parties want a policy that violates your basic normative commitments about what a good society does, you don’t support their policy. You advocate your own policy. Torture isn’t an area where you can split the difference.

  15. Nicholas
    [… the Greens should have to choose between two different flavours of torture.]
    It’s not a matter of should.

    [you don’t support their policy. You advocate your own policy]
    That’s what I just said.

  17. A vote in parliament doesn’t mean you support something.

    The actual meaning of a vote is defined by the concrete outcomes available, not a bunch of words. People frequently misunderstand what a vote is and mischaracterise it with the wrong words.

  18. Well knock me down with a feather …. Fran Barlow conceding the Green’s pension deal with the LNP was a mistake….

    @fran_b__: A mea culpa on my position on the Greens’ pension deal http://t.co/x4rvTjjTri TY @R_Chirgwin & @vogrady2132

  22. The only moral choice to our system (literally) throwing up, with majority support, the only options of torture and worse torture would be to leave it.

  23. Melissa Clarke is flag waving for the ABC in Singapore, Tony would like that. I’m sure she bats for team Austraya.

  24. [1963
    Nicholas

    A good country doesn’t choose to treat people in an evil way. The onus is on the major parties to join the Greens in righting the wrongs of Australian policy in this area.]

    In practical terms the onus is on those who oppose the current policies in relation to refugees to argue for and win community support for change. We are outnumbered in the ratio around 4:1 at the moment. Doubtless there are many Greens, some who identify with Labor, a remnant in the ranks of the LNP and some who would be without a strong political affiliation who would support change. They need to be brought together somehow. My own view is that this issue transcends the partisan. It is more fundamental than that. Yet it is very tempting to raise partisan cries. I do this myself, though I suspect it is counter-productive to do so.

    Hopefully the High Court will take the view that Australia may not lawfully commit refugees to off-shore internment. This would change the choices available to the antagonists here.

    This is a very stubborn problem. Changing the tenor of the argument is a substantial intellectual, ethical and political challenge.

  27. [I think you are confused about the purpose of a political party. It needs to be grounded in values. ]

    And a Government of either Labor or Liberals needs to well actually govern and bring enough of the population with it to be reelection. Values are sweet and all, like unicorns and rainbows, wouldn’t want to do without them, but they guide decisions they don’t make them for you. Like the 10 commandments they are fantastic but you end up looking a bit fundamentalist crazy if you just keep sprouting them.

    Back to our discussion of you sharing your dishonest characterisation of what I have previously said, and then lacking the kind of values you might think someone like you who sprouts on about them you don’t back up what you say or respond to detailed rebuffs, well I actually thought of you today.

    Was doing some detailed work on a couple of double tax agreements trying to make sure a few companies spread around the world did the right thing and didn’t accidentally create a PE where one was not intended. Well anyway if you were actually applying the greens values (unlike your complete lack of them in posts here misrepresenting and abusing me) what would you have these companies do? Not read the DTA? Burn shareholder money by just negligently incurring tax liabilities? Other than read the law and apply it what can companies actually do without breaching their duties to shareholders?

  28. Anxious about sort of fool he’s gunna make of himself that will reflect badly on the rest of us.

    Please world…do not judge us on the lousy rotten standard our PM sets

  29. “@leighsales: Tiny bit of extra security at the ABC and a couple of photographers outside but otherwise looks like business as usual at #qanda”

  30. Is Tony going to bring the grandma Nettleton kids home??

    The are Australians you know.

    Dutton says “It’s not a place that we have Australian troops”.

    Weird, I thought we might be sending troops into the Ukraine to chase down the MH17 badies.

  34. guytaur

    [“@leighsales: Tiny bit of extra security at the ABC and a couple of photographers outside but otherwise looks like business as usual at #qanda”]
    Perhaps because they no longer need to protect the public from LNPer Alan Tudge who has pulled out of appearing tonight.

  35. [We don’t know how it is all going down in the wider community. Unfortunately there is no Newspoll this week, but last Thursday evening (three days after Q & A-gate but before the deadly, apparently ISIS-linked attacks in three countries which led to Abbott warning the “death cult” is “coming for us”) Reachtel asked voters “If you were forced to choose, which of the following two parties do you trust most to handle the issue of national security?”. Some 53 per cent chose the Coalition and 47 per cent Labor.]

    From today’s Mumble.

    So no Newspoll? It’s supposed to be the first Galaxy, isn’t it?

  39. @JohnWren1950: It seems the only heads rolling in @liberalaus belong to horses, and they end up in their political opponent’s beds. #auspol #LibMafia

  43. Was this episode of 4Corners meant to be breaking new ground?

    So far, it appears to be rehashing old police files and investigations.

  48. “@JaneCaro: I might not agree with Philip Ruddock often but, like Geoffrey Watson, I do have respect for his integrity #4corners”

  50. [Grahame Morris ‏@GrahameMorris2 7m7 minutes ago
    Whoa, hold the front page! Someone at a function somewhere put their hand out &John Howard shook it. #4corners you’re being REALLY silly]

    Howard features?

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