ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings sink still further in the latest result from ReachTEL, but the Coalition yields only a modest dividend on voting intention.

ReachTEL has its latest more-or-less monthly federal poll result this evening for the Seven Network, and it shows Labor’s lead at its narrowest since October, at 52-48 compared with 53-47 at the previous poll on May 13. This one was conducted last night, from a sample of 2907. The primary votes are 41.9% for the Coalition, up 0.8%; 37.0% for Labor, down 1.3%; 13.1% for the Greens, up 1.0% (offering further support for their recent upward trend); and a new low of 1.3% for Palmer United, which had hitherto been doing relatively well out of ReachTEL, down 0.9% on last time. The poll also credits the Coalition with a surprisingly narrow 52.6-47.4 lead on the question of which party is more trusted to handle national security.

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have taken another hit – his combined very good and good rating is down from 23.4% to 20.0%, while poor and very poor shoots up from 39.2% to 46.2%. Tony Abbott’s net rating is down for the first time since the February leadership spill vote, his combined very good and good rating of 27.5% comparing with 28.1% last time, while poor plus very poor edges up from 52.0% to 52.5%. Furthermore, Shorten maintains a 56.3-43.7 lead as preferred prime minister, continuing ReachTEL’s record of strong results for him on this measure, which is conducted differently from other pollsters in that there is no uncommitted option.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,093 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Doyley

    Do not blame the Greens for policy consistency. Blame the LNP for policy inconsistency.

    Thats the failure not that of the Greens.

  2. meher baba@1756

    Before any of you lefty Bludgers get too excited about mafia exposes on 4C, Federal ICACs, etc., please be aware that the Labor Party has strong and well-established links – including fund-raising links – to a wide range of business people in the Italian, Lebanese, Chinese and other migrant communities where, shall we say, business is sometimes conducted in a way that transcends the laws of an individual jurisdiction.

    If everything that has happened and is still happening in this area were to be fully exposed, neither of the major parties would come out looking very good, and I suspect that Labor might end up getting slightly the worst of it.

    If so, then so be it. Still needs to be done. Tribal allegiances be damned.

  3. PETER LLOYD: Sinister stories have already emerged about the sexual exploitation of inmates by guards.

    Natasha Blucher describes an atmosphere where local Nauruan staff saw the camp as a showcase for bride shopping.

    [MARK COLVIN: Social workers sacked from their jobs at the Australian-run detention centre on Nauru last year are demanding a public apology from the Government.

    They say they were fired because of a false intelligence report about their conduct.

    Last October, Save the Children staff on Nauru were accused of encouraging self harm, fabricating abuse allegations, and orchestrating protests. But the Moss inquiry into the case found no evidence of any of that.

    Now for the first time, two of the social workers have broken their silence.

    They say the mass dismissal was an attempt to intimidate anyone trying to help asylum seekers.]

  4. for BK

    Robert Menzies ‏@SirBobMenzies 3m3 minutes ago
    Delighted to see @MirabellaSophie having another go at Indi. Where there’s a will, there’s Mrs Mirabella. #auspoI

  5. guytaur
    While both Labor and Liberal are to blame for the abysmal treatment of asylum seekers, the Greens had an opportunity to prevent the two majors from converging on a solution and refused to take it because they wanted to avoid being (unfairly) blamed for the result of picking the lesser of two evils.

    This is the flip side of (or complement to) Labor’s problem.

    There is a failure by our political parties to find a way to separate what they advocate from what they implement, to explain that mismatches are the consequence of living in a democracy.

    Instead they they go all one way or the other. Labor refuse to advocate and the Greens refuse to implement.

  6. [There will never be a Greens Prime Minister, ]

    In 1895 they might have said the same thing about the Labor Party. So Goosh Goosh, unless your crystal ball is flawless, best never to say never…

  7. DN

    Your argument is BS. The Greens have always opposed offshore policy. They voted against offshore policy.

    Very legislation Liberals and Labor vote for is up to those respective parties. Labor voted for it Labor owns it. Liberals vote for or against the Liberals own it.

    Letting the Liberals get away with that was a failure of Labor to prosecute its case. No matter the reasons for it. Its not a fault of the Greens in any way that the Liberal party chose to vote how they did

  8. I do not understand, I cannot understand why sending asylum seekers to a remote island is not enough. Why do they have to suffer conditions worse than in jails? Why are children becoming institutionalised, and everyone’s mental and physical health deteriorating? Being confined is punishment enough. We don’t need to torture them as well.

    Surely, surely Labor could stand up for some decency of treatment, even if they can’t change the basic facts.

    Sometime in the future, too late for these poor souls, there will probably be a Royal Commission about these concentration camps.

  9. guytaur
    The two majors set the overall direction by virtue of each representing significantly more of the population. That’s what the Greens have to live with. Whether they like it or not, the Greens choice is not between offshore and onshore, it’s between different flavours of offshore.

    Whatever words you choose to frame their vote with, the practical effect was always going to be the choosing one offshore policy over another.

  10. DN

    Wrong. The Greens voted for the policy that they told voters at the election.

    The LNP voted against the policy they took to the election,

    Thats the fault of the LNP not the Greens

  11. Sadly watched Abbott’s Singapore speech. Rinse and repeat of what he does locally – Death Cult, end of the world stuff.

    Why he cant go to real geopolitical player like Indonesia and mend some fences is beyond me. Singapore is the Twiggy Forrest of SE Asia.

  12. “We completely and utterly failed to get the outcome we wanted, and we are still failing, but we can point the blame elsewhere so it’s all ok!”

  13. BK

    Remember in Alice in Wonderland? All the creatures dance together. ‘Will you, won’t you, … join the dance?’

    He’s lost reality. And there was Paul Kelly insisting that Abbott understands everything very well.

  14. mimhoff

    The Greens represent the people who voted for them.

    You blame the Greens for doing that when the LNP voted directly opposite what they told people they represent.

    Thats not the Greens problem thats the Liberals problem. It was Labors problem becaause Labor could not get the Liberals to vote for offshore.

    Labor failed it was the government not the Greens

  15. guytaur
    You can spin their vote however you like. In actual effect, the Greens chose one offshore policy over another, because they were never presented with a different option.

  16. guytaur

    Yes, Labor failed to get their regional policy effected, through because of Abbott and Greens intransigence. But the Coalition (Morrison and Dutton) have raised the level of cruelty and neglect beyond imagining.

  17. [Abbott speaking in Singapore

    “Many Australians become anxious when their Prime Minister goes overseas”]
    What a narcissistic thing he is.

  18. It doesn’t matter how you choose to abstractly describe a vote, the actual choice being made depends on the concrete outcomes possible.

  19. [“Many Australians become anxious when their Prime Minister goes overseas”]

    mortal fear the bastard will make it back

  20. [“Many Australians become anxious when their Prime Minister goes overseas”]

    About what stupidity leaves his gob. Thats what they are anxious about.

  21. DN

    Your denial is just that. The votes are clear. So are the numbers. So are the policy positions.

    The Greens failed in no way. Saying ou did is just denial about the fact the Liberals voted against Labor. That vote was a Liberal vote not a Green vote.

    Trying to bleme the Greens because Labor was out played tacticly by the Liberals does not make it any less a Liberal tactic. Its not a Green one and its time you woke up to the fact that it was the Liberals and ony the Liberals to blame.

    Until Labor people see this simple truth Labor will continue to be outplayed on AS by the Liberals. Scapegoating the Greens will not and has not changed Liberal tactics

  22. The Greens have attempted to get a federal ICAC legislated several times over the years.

    Both major parties have being totally uninterested to see such an anti-corruption body implemented.

    [On the resumption of Parliament in May, the Greens used the opportunity to call for a “National ICAC”. The National Integrity Commission Bill 2013 had its second reading in Federal Parliament on Thursday 15th of May 2014. A history of this bill and the Greens campaign on it can be found here. The bill was spoken to by Senator Milne, and was supported by Independent Senator, Nick Xenophon. However it was defeated in a division by a combined Liberal and Labor vote.

    As part of their campaign, the Greens launched a petition, “We need a national ICAC”, which was tabled in Parliament on September 25th.]
    [To date, the Liberal, National and Labor parties have opposed the Greens’ moves for a national ICAC.]
    [Yet nationally, the concept has been raised under successive coalition and Labor governments for more than three decades without either side taking any action.

    A disturbing insight has been unfolding since the then Greens leader Bob Brown introduced a private member’s bill for the establishment of a national integrity commission on 23 June, 2010, during the first term of Kevin Rudd as Labor prime minister.]

    The Greens bill was subsequently re-submitted twice.

    [Notwithstanding support for the bill from independents Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Senator Nick Xenophon, the bill was referred to a House of Representatives committee made up of only Labor and Coalition members, which did not bother to call for submissions or hold public hearings and argued against the bill.

    Thus the bill lapsed again…

    Five weeks later, Milne reintroduced the bill in the Senate on November 13.

    Not one other politician spoke and the debate was adjourned.]
    [In 2011, the Joint Committee on the Australian Commission for Law Enforcement Integrity recommended a full review of the Commonwealth’s integrity framework with a view to establishing a generalist, dedicated anti-corruption body.

    But the Commonwealth has managed to resist the establishment of a standing anti-corruption watchdog. A National Parliamentary Integrity Commissioner, promised by Julia Gillard as part of winning the support of the Greens after the 2010 election, was never introduced.

    In 2012, the Gillard government claimed that there was “no convincing case for the establishment of a single overarching integrity commission”.]
    [The Greens have long had legislation for a federal anti-corruption watchdog before the Parliament but have so far failed to have it brought on for debate]

  23. [“Many Australians become anxious when their Prime Minister goes overseas”]

    they know the stupid bastard is going to open his mouth

  24. [“Many Australians become anxious when their Prime Minister goes overseas”]

    they know people overseas are going to see the fool and assume we’re all like that.

  25. Re Lizzie @1911 Sometime in the future, too late for these poor souls, there will probably be a Royal Commission about these concentration camps.

    Hopefully yes, but this assumes that Australia maintains its fundamental decency. I am not convinced that this is a given. There could be a major economic reversal on the cards. These things are never predicted before they happen. If it does happen, Australia might well slide into fascism.

  26. guytaur

    [You blame the Greens]

    I am not blaming anyone. My whole point is that pointing blame is not going to achieve much when one’s side is losing.

  27. [Abbott speaking in Singapore

    “Many Australians become anxious when their Prime Minister goes overseas”]

    Did he really say that?

    Tony, please come back. I can’t sleep at night, scared that you may never return, lest the scary foreigners get you. This country needs your warm, guiding hand back at the helm ASAP.

  28. guytaur
    You’re missing my whole point.

    I’m not blaming the Greens. The Greens can’t possibly be blamed for this abysmal state of affairs because they were never given a good option in the first place.

    Nevertheless, the Greens made a mistake, the same one you’re making now, in failing to understand that they never had a good option.

  29. “Many Australians become anxious when their Prime Minister goes overseas”

    !!!??? That’s even stupider than knighting a Duke.

  30. mimhoff

    There is something called reality. The Greens have never had the numbers alone for getting onshore as a policy. The Greens need a major party for that or a High Court decision.

    Thats the reality. The Greens voting against offshore does nothing to change that reality until the Greens can become a government, Either way the Greens did the right thing by their voters on the issue by voting against setting up an offshore facility.

    They did all they could.

    The numbers speak for themselves. Don’t worry when Labor decides to go for onshore processing the Greens are likely to vote for it.

  31. Australians are anxious when Abbott is overseas because they, reasonably, fear that he is likely to return.

  32. DN

    Yes you are blaming the Greens. I never brought up past votes in parliament. You brought it up so you could blame the Greens for somehow being out of touch.

    Wrong. The Greens are in touch with what the votes they represent want and voted that way.

    Its that simple

  33. 1940

    Fortunately it is hard for Abbott to call an election from overseas and he is unlikely to get the acting PM to do it for him.

  34. Further to 1938

    And the same failure as the rest of our political system to work out how to separate advocacy from governing.

  35. DN

    The Greens were governing according to their policies. No matter how you try and spin it the numbers of votes in the Senate are recorded.

    The Liberals outplayed Labor by voting no to Labor legislation. That is not the fault of the Greens in any way,

  36. I would have thought touching yourself would be against the standing orders of thee Senate.

    But, those willy Greens would do anything for self pleaseure, I suppose.

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