ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings sink still further in the latest result from ReachTEL, but the Coalition yields only a modest dividend on voting intention.

ReachTEL has its latest more-or-less monthly federal poll result this evening for the Seven Network, and it shows Labor’s lead at its narrowest since October, at 52-48 compared with 53-47 at the previous poll on May 13. This one was conducted last night, from a sample of 2907. The primary votes are 41.9% for the Coalition, up 0.8%; 37.0% for Labor, down 1.3%; 13.1% for the Greens, up 1.0% (offering further support for their recent upward trend); and a new low of 1.3% for Palmer United, which had hitherto been doing relatively well out of ReachTEL, down 0.9% on last time. The poll also credits the Coalition with a surprisingly narrow 52.6-47.4 lead on the question of which party is more trusted to handle national security.

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have taken another hit – his combined very good and good rating is down from 23.4% to 20.0%, while poor and very poor shoots up from 39.2% to 46.2%. Tony Abbott’s net rating is down for the first time since the February leadership spill vote, his combined very good and good rating of 27.5% comparing with 28.1% last time, while poor plus very poor edges up from 52.0% to 52.5%. Furthermore, Shorten maintains a 56.3-43.7 lead as preferred prime minister, continuing ReachTEL’s record of strong results for him on this measure, which is conducted differently from other pollsters in that there is no uncommitted option.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,093 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Waleed Aly opined late last year that people had already made their mind up about this government.

    That was when the polls were about 55-45. I think the LNP has won back that 3% of swing voters since the spill and that might be about all they get.

  3. This hysteria about a person who dared to speak on Q&A is getting absolutely getting out of hand.

    Parliamentarians running away from what?

    I thought we were allowed free speech in this country – silly me!

    For people who are supposed to be running this country are instead focusing on getting top marks from the moron who leads the Government is just unbelievable.

    They need to grow up for God’s sake.

  5. Toorak Toff@1828

    Photo-shop Abbott in IS robes and say: “He’s the one to fear”.

    What outrage that would evoke!

    Unfortunately, it would guarantee him an election landslide.

    Sheesh, put the ABC logo in an ISIS flag and all the RWNJs are pleased, but put Abbott in a rob and just imagine how all of them will go off.

  6. [Anyone care to comment on the lack of volatility in the polls? Even when Julia was having lots of trouble, the polls tended to bounce around (if I recall). But here, the needle really does seem stuck.]

    People don’t like or trust Abbott but are unsure whether they like or trust Shorten any better (Liberal and Labor) can be inserted instead with the same meaning.

  7. [ He’s doing exceptionally well to score 47-48% on the 2PP. ]

    Yes, that’s the reality underlying the media’s “Tony has had a great week” campaign that dare not speak its name. 🙂

  8. I agree with DavidWH

    People I talk too don’t like Tony, they had hatred for Howard and Gillard but they hold Tony is less regard than those two.

    Shorten is struggling a bit, Can’t recall who wrote it here but they were right Shorten needs to learn how to have a sense of humor, he is just so serious which is unnerving some people

  10. The qanda outrage by the fibs is just an excuse not to appear on the program tonight, in case they are asked about mafia links to the Liberals

  11. I have read that the reason Shorten is ‘unpopular’ is that he wasn’t in Parliament long enough to gain confidence and for people to know him well before the dirt was thrown. My view is that, like Gillard and unlike Rudd, he is better at face to face than in set speeches.

  12. mexicanbeemer

    [ Shorten is struggling a bit, Can’t recall who wrote it here but they were right Shorten needs to learn how to have a sense of humor, he is just so serious which is unnerving some people ]

    Just because you are in a public position does not automatically make you a good public performer. It took Gillard a year or more to get over her stage fright and start to appear “natural” in the spotlight.

    I reckon Shorten will improve over time. Whereas with Abbott this is as good as he’s ever going to get.

  13. Paul Kelly’s really hitting the airwaves today. He’ll be on The Drum at 5.30. Rushing out in defence of the Libs, perhaps?

  14. Player One

    My view is that Shorten is already a good performer, he has overcome the habit of allowing the opposition interrupt his parliamentary speeches and has more control over his body language when giving those speeches.

    To Shorten’s credit I’ve never seen him go robotic, a few times his answers are odd but all pollies fall into the habit of being silly when answering questions they don’t want to answer.

  15. Nick Scali
    Paul Nicolaou

    surely not Michael Photios? And Artie Sinodinos? No, their Greek – and as we know, above reproach

  16. I think the polls show that even though voters anger towards the government has cool they haven’t forgiven them and probably never will. I may seem overly keen to see the end of Abbott but I think it’s the only way the LNP have a shot at the next election.

  17. stevieboy

    [ I may seem overly keen to see the end of Abbott but I think it’s the only way the LNP have a shot at the next election. ]

    I agree. Let’s hope the LNP don’t cotton on to this 🙂

  20. “@TheKouk: No surprises German’s demand Greek austerity & economic depression over their banks losing a bit of money. WIll come back to bite them hard

    @latikambourke: Q&A boycott ‘petulant’, will cede the ground to the left, says Govt MP Ewen Jones – http://t.co/Ycjl0Qx3qM via @smh

  21. Player One @ 1866

    I also want to see leadersh*t be the breaking of Abbott seeing as it was the making. Poetic justice for the win. Then again if he wants to go into an early election after trailing in the polls for 18 months more (then less) power to him.

  25. 1870

    Almost makes me want to see a dodgy sample give a 51-49 to LNP. One poll might be enough for Tones to pull the trigger

  27. No wonder Abbott has run away to Singapore

    I thought it was to avoid the mad bombers and evil beheaders of ISIS, who were coming to get us.

  28. victoria

    Hopefully at the very least another Ministerial reshuffle will have to happen. All those Howard era people in government

  30. lizzie and victoria,

    Richard Marles was in Indonesia recently re AS issues in a look and learn tour and spoke with officials.

    We should wait and see what labor comes up with.

  32. Doyley

    Labor is asking the coalition to disclose how and why the turn back policies are working for them before deciding whether they should be adopted by team Labor.

  33. A weekend without polls? Good lord!

    I agree: the punters have made up their minds about Abbott. He’s for the baseball bat.

    Essentially dropping the entire 2014 budget in the bin clawed them back a bit of ground, but if they havent shifted at this point – what will do it?

    In sum: If the LNP dont change leader, Im expecting PM Shorten.

  36. Will Uhlmann run with….

    BREAKING: Liberal fundraiser Millennium Forum took Mafia $$// Lib hosted mafia in parly house

    I guess not

  38. [BREAKING: Liberal fundraiser Millennium Forum took Mafia $$// Lib hosted mafia in parly house]

    Well they’re always saying they’re the pro-family party.

  39. victoria,

    yep.

    Labor is treading slowly on this which I think is good.

    The AS debate was lost years ago and both sides need to share blame.

    I think labor needs to neuralize this issue politically before the election. If they then win office then and only then can they look at a more compassionate approach to refugees in general and oversight of Manus and Nauru in particular.

    There will be a meeting this weekend of the national left and AS will be high on the list of topics.

    Labor can only do something positive on this issue if in government so if accepting a turnback policy helps then I will accept that.

    For greens and others who scream and shout about the possible approach by labor on this I have one simple question

    What have the greens actually achieved on the AS issue after their years of screaming and shouting and absolute purity?

    cheers.

  40. “@ABCthedrum: .@tonyowright “We really don’t need Tony Abbott frightening the hell out of everybody in the chance that would… win him some votes.””

  42. Doyley

    The answer for the Greens is simple. They have never been in government, The Greens are not responsible for the policy mistake positions in their view of the ALP.

    Keep shouting until in government of change comes.

  43. [1839
    Millennial

    Tony Abbott agrees to closer Singapore relations]

    Tones has a fetish for ‘guided democracy’. Probably after some inside tips.

  44. There will never be a Greens Prime Minister, so short of a a job policy change from one of the major parties, their opinions on Asylum Seekers will be of limited influence

  45. guytaur,

    the answer for the Greens is anything but simple; because the question isnt simple.

    You want to be a Change Leader? Then you need to understand the definition.

  48. Guytaur,

    poor excuse.

    The greens had more than one opportunity to support the Gillard government and vote for policy that would have had a far better outcome for AS than what the libs oversee now.

    They refused and we are where we are now because of that refusal.

  49. So why did Abbott really agree for relations with Singapore? Is it because of the fact that Orange boats were built there?

  50. Goosh Goosh

    Never say never. Lots did with Abbott.

    However you make my point about Greens influence on policy. About as much as human rights groups have had.

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