ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings sink still further in the latest result from ReachTEL, but the Coalition yields only a modest dividend on voting intention.

ReachTEL has its latest more-or-less monthly federal poll result this evening for the Seven Network, and it shows Labor’s lead at its narrowest since October, at 52-48 compared with 53-47 at the previous poll on May 13. This one was conducted last night, from a sample of 2907. The primary votes are 41.9% for the Coalition, up 0.8%; 37.0% for Labor, down 1.3%; 13.1% for the Greens, up 1.0% (offering further support for their recent upward trend); and a new low of 1.3% for Palmer United, which had hitherto been doing relatively well out of ReachTEL, down 0.9% on last time. The poll also credits the Coalition with a surprisingly narrow 52.6-47.4 lead on the question of which party is more trusted to handle national security.

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have taken another hit – his combined very good and good rating is down from 23.4% to 20.0%, while poor and very poor shoots up from 39.2% to 46.2%. Tony Abbott’s net rating is down for the first time since the February leadership spill vote, his combined very good and good rating of 27.5% comparing with 28.1% last time, while poor plus very poor edges up from 52.0% to 52.5%. Furthermore, Shorten maintains a 56.3-43.7 lead as preferred prime minister, continuing ReachTEL’s record of strong results for him on this measure, which is conducted differently from other pollsters in that there is no uncommitted option.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,093 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 37 of 42
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  3. Interesting that Morgan has the ALP up only 53-47 in Victoria but doing better in NSW and Queensland than other polls show. These are the critical states.

  6. Aye – somebody commented when Reachtel came out that there seems to be a hardened 52 against Abbott. Have to say I’m coming around to this point of view myself.

    One ‘good week’ does not a summer make.

  7. [One ‘good week’ does not a summer make.]

    Especially when the ‘good week’ is a product of press corpse groupthink rather than any objective assessment of reality.

  8. [Don’t get me wrong, I’m completely in favour of a Federal ICAC. I just think that nobody who sets it up should expect to gain any political advantage out of it. The case of Greiner in NSW – where it turned on him like Frankenstein’s monster – is exemplary.

    One point about a Federal ICAC is that it would need to be truly “federal” and work closely with State counterparts and State and Territory law enforcement agencies (especially the ACT), given that enforcement of criminal law is to a significant extent a state and territory responsibility.]

    For sure what happens after it is actually set up is hard to foresee. You would hope Labor have had enough experience of having their dirty laundry cleaned up by such bodies that they will actually keep their own house in order.

    But I’m talking about the political benefit to be derived today. Shorten is copping it a bit as not standing for much. If he can get out of Dyson’s star chamber with a clean skin then a campaign on restoring standards backed up by a corruption body with real teeth could be the x factor that gets him over the line.

    Interesting that Shellbell is claiming an ICAC isn’t the form Federal Labor is looking at. The advantage of the NSW model is that the public has good idea about how well it works and hold it in high regard. To propose a very different alternative makes the sales job a lot harder and invites questions of efficacy.

  12. This is what the crater said:

    “The Menzies Research Centre is a public policy think tank, not a political player. The reputation of our ongoing public policy research must be protected.”

    If you recover from the ROFLMAO near death experience upon reading this, you can find the rest of his explanation at:

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/jun/29/qa-loses-second-guest-nick-cater-following-zaky-mallah-controversy

    Sadly, we have the spectacle of the $300k per annum sinecure holder at the Human Rights Commission feeling that he has to pretend to do something with the huge amount of public money he is sucking up:

    [However Freedom Commissioner Tim Wilson, who the Liberal government appointed to the Human Rights Commission, said he had decided against a boycott.

    “Over the past week, I have vacillated as a private citizen about whether I go on because I am not happy with Q&A’s conduct last week but as Human Rights Commissioner I feel an obligation to go on Q&A and explain what free speech actually means,” Mr Wilson said]

    From:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-declines-invitation-to-appear-on-qa-20150629-gi0c15.html

    Clearly, Mr Wilson believes he has to do something more than just ensure that he hogs the funding for a human rights commissioner who could actually do some good for people.

    Still, we will hear his justification for allowing anyone with a history of inciting violence to appear on Q & A (Ciobo, Morris, Alan Jones) as long as they are not Muslim.

  13. @1804

    For the Liberals it’s a problem to be in this close but not close enough rut.

    It encourages Abbott to keep trying to close the gaps on a fear campaign. This in turn steadily erodes the Liberal’s credibility on the economy as growth trends down and they appear to have no positive response.

    Worst case scenario for the Liberals is that Abbott exhausts the electorates’ capacity to listen to him crying wolf and the Libs end up at the polls next year without any credibility as economic managers.

  14. psyclaw@1797: “I suspect Meher Baba will come out bad if his bank accounts were examined by the ATO”

    I can assure you that there is nothing to see in my bank accounts and, I’m sorry to say, I mean that in the most literal of senses!

  15. Current polling just shows how out of touch the press gallery is with reality.

    They were hyperventilating about Abbott’s Good Week and how badly Shorten had stuffed up, while the rest of the world simply didn’t notice.

    It’s a worry, though — if Abbott’s currrent Terrorism Crisis, They’re All Coming to Get Us rhetoric isn’t working, what are we going to see next?

  16. 1812

    They’ve been crying wolf since several years before being elected.

    The consistency of the polls indicates the electorate have likely already stopped listening

  17. trand at 1805

    Yep, the 52-48 recipe continues to be as solid as ever & again I say the ALP should be delighted with their position 21 months into a first-term Coalition government that has thrown everything including the kitchen sink at it. Credlin must be tearing her witchypoo hair out.

  18. [Greens are emphatically pro Fed ICAC]

    So are you speculating that this will be reason enough for Federal Labor to look for an alternative, or have you heard rumours? I would like to think that it wouldn’t have any bearing, but I haven’t bought Sydney Harbour Bridge recently either.

    [It’s a worry, though — if Abbott’s currrent Terrorism Crisis, They’re All Coming to Get Us rhetoric isn’t working, what are we going to see next?]

    More of the same, just louder and more flags.

  19. No Liberal nonentity MP and no Nick Cater! That’s a pity. Thank goodness Paul Kelly has stepped into the breach or else I would be stripped of all excuses for not watching Q&A tonight (other than the perennial one of needing to paint my toenails!)

    Among the far right media commentators, Cater is arguably even sillier than Rowan Dean, but does have the benefit of being unfailingly gentlemanly and polite. Cater’s book The Lucky Culture is completely bizarre, almost every page abounding with wild assertions and incorrect conclusions. The bloke even tries to mount a defence of Jonathan Shier FFS!!

  22. What exactly are the LNP going to take to the election as achievements from this term?

    ‘stop the boats’ and ‘scrap the carbon/mining tax’

    I have never seen a first term government achieve so little in 2 years. (Jury still out on Labor in QLD – however they were on a hiding to nothing re: being prepared to govern)

  23. [Australia’s relationship with Indonesia appears to be at its lowest point, says Indonesia’s former foreign minister Marty Natalegawa, who suspects there is no private communication between the two countries.

    During an interview with Sky’s David Speers to be aired on Monday, Dr Natalegawa said “we are at a key juncture” in Indonesia-Australia relations.

    He said he believes there is also no private communications occurring between the two governments, which would represent an unprecedented collapse in relations.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australiaindonesia-relationship-at-a-key-juncture-dialogue-needed-on-boats-says-marty-natalegawa-20150629-gi0e90.html

  25. Abbott’s basic problem is that voters fear him just as much as they fear IS. Voters also have greater justification for fearing Abbott. He has a lot more power and is a lot more visible than IS.

    Abbott embodies nearly everything voters dislike about politics – the rancour, the inflated ranting, the lies, the blackmail and the preposterous posing. He’s doing exceptionally well to score 47-48% on the 2PP.

  26. [Cater is arguably even sillier than Rowan Dean]

    There is no animal, vegetable or mineral sillier than Rowan Dean.

  28. trand

    I had t look it up, not being a cool dude like Bernard

    “GTFO is an Internet acronym for the phrase “Get The Fuck Out” which is typically used to express disbelief or contempt towards someone else’s remark “

  29. Photo-shop Abbott in IS robes and say: “He’s the one to fear”.

    What outrage that would evoke!

    Unfortunately, it would guarantee him an election landslide.

  30. [shellbell

    Posted Monday, June 29, 2015 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

    Greens are emphatically pro Fed ICAC]

    Are you trying to talk us out of it shellbell?

  36. zoomster @ 1814

    And imagine if other forms of media were like that. You’ve got 100 bucks on a horse race and despite your horse being a furlong behind and fading the announcer is screaming about it’s epic comeback.

  38. Seems to me Labor should be quietly trying to mend fences with Indonesia while Tony marches about threatening everyone, but what would I know…

  39. Tony Abbott agrees to closer Singapore relations

    [Australia and Singapore have agreed to enhance relations with a New Zealand-style agreement on Closer Economic Relations aimed at providing “seamless” exchanges on counter-terrorism, defence, investment, education and immigration.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/tony-abbott-agrees-to-closer-singapore-relations/story-fn59nm2j-1227420212153

    I wonder what prompted Tony to suddenly agree to this deal? 😉

  43. Re Briefly @1824: Abbott’s basic problem is that voters fear him just as much as they fear IS. Voters also have greater justification for fearing Abbott. He has a lot more power and is a lot more visible than IS.

    That’s how a lot of people see it, but not enough. For my part, the Leader of the Opposition would need to be Dracula for Abbott to appear to be a remotely acceptable (least worst) alternative.

    However, according to polls over the last few months, about 48% of the voters are ready to give him another go, a gap that is easily closed by an election budget, an actual election campaign and smear campaigns of the sort that we are already starting to see. Labor has to return the conversation to what really matters – jobs, the economy, health, education, pensions. Remind voters of the 2014 Budget measures, which will return after the election if the LNP wins.

  44. As I don’t access The Australian, I didn’t read this when it appeared the first time.

    [The Daily Rupert ‏@TheMurdochTimes · 2hours ago
    Murdoch drone Paul Kelly is the journalist who mocked Royal Commission into child sexual abuse as “populist” #qanda pic.twitter.com/SWHERSdIGh ]

  46. Greece, I know. But good article on how there never was any negotiation, Syriza bent over backwards, but the EU elite are trying to conduct a rightist coup. The big problem for them is that the poor possums can’t, actually, throw Greece out of the EU, or even the Eurozone. But since the ECB has been heavying the Greeks on behalf of the Troika (by refusing to do what a central bank should do – be a lender of last resort) they may have to reintroduce the Drachma (which by treaty they’re not allowed to do). Work all that out.

    https://fsaraceno.wordpress.com/2015/06/27/its-the-politics-stupid/

  47. 1842

    Any election campaign would have Abbott/Hockey in the spotlight for 5 straight weeks. Given combined they can’t go 5 days without a gaffe, they will be in trouble. Add in a possible recession, a cashed-up Labor campaign and a wealth of LNP inconsistencies to point out in basically every area – and I think they will have a lot of trouble closing the gap from 52-48.

    Certainly nothing they’ve tried so far has worked

  49. Anyone care to comment on the lack of volatility in the polls? Even when Julia was having lots of trouble, the polls tended to bounce around (if I recall). But here, the needle really does seem stuck.

  50. Trand – I think Bemused? made the very valid point that Tone only really improves in the polls when he’s out of public view. Bit hard during an election

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