ReachTEL has its latest more-or-less monthly federal poll result this evening for the Seven Network, and it shows Labor’s lead at its narrowest since October, at 52-48 compared with 53-47 at the previous poll on May 13. This one was conducted last night, from a sample of 2907. The primary votes are 41.9% for the Coalition, up 0.8%; 37.0% for Labor, down 1.3%; 13.1% for the Greens, up 1.0% (offering further support for their recent upward trend); and a new low of 1.3% for Palmer United, which had hitherto been doing relatively well out of ReachTEL, down 0.9% on last time. The poll also credits the Coalition with a surprisingly narrow 52.6-47.4 lead on the question of which party is more trusted to handle national security.
Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have taken another hit – his combined very good and good rating is down from 23.4% to 20.0%, while poor and very poor shoots up from 39.2% to 46.2%. Tony Abbott’s net rating is down for the first time since the February leadership spill vote, his combined very good and good rating of 27.5% comparing with 28.1% last time, while poor plus very poor edges up from 52.0% to 52.5%. Furthermore, Shorten maintains a 56.3-43.7 lead as preferred prime minister, continuing ReachTEL’s record of strong results for him on this measure, which is conducted differently from other pollsters in that there is no uncommitted option.
Interesting that Greens voters have so little regard for Bill Shorten.
It makes me very sad that some quack alternative therapist has a major say in the Tasmanian health system. Just shows Will Hodgman is every bit as anti science as Abbott
I am a Greens voter and I view Bill Shorten as a talentless uncharismatic hack. Still, I’d prefer him over the hypocritical misogynist condescending wart that is our PM (:
Comparing this poll’s primaries to the current BludgerTrack, the ReachTEL poll is +1.9 to the Coalition to BludgerTrack and -2.0 to Others to BludgerTrack.
Do you think there’s something to that, William?
[…while Tony is waxing” ]
Well we will only know if there is a speedos photo op.
Or
A damn good reason to have a winter election!!
Mind you, I suspect that voters are still not committed to Shorten in any big way at the moment….but then, they are not falling for Abbott either.
Someone has said there is a paucity of leadership….
More votes parked with the Greens for the time being.
However, despite all the huff and puff, not a good result for the government I would have thought.
This poll, of course, will be totally ignored by most of the media, save to say it will home it in Shorten’s short comings (sic) and downplay the (another) 52-48 score.
[From the previous…
1071
Tom Hawkins
Reachtel PPM Shorten 56, Abbott 44.
That’s almost unbelievable]
It makes sense to me. Despite all the advantages of incumbency, people have very little faith in Abbott for very obvious reasons – he’s an idiot who lies and creates mayhem all the time. His numbers improve when he’s invisible. As soon as he ventures into the public space, he reminds voters of all the things they dislike – his aggression, his lying, his game-playing.
There’s obviously a very hardened dislike of Abbott…and the more he campaigns, the greater the dislike becomes.
Solipsist
It is unfortunate that we in this country are reduced to a ‘least worst’ alternative.
Abbott continues to do Shorten slowly…
On the basis of this poll, I would suspect Shorten is looking to the 2016 election that will not be called early by Abbott.
The uptick in the Greens’ppv is pleasing 🙂
Only 38.6% of Labor supporters rate Shorten’s performance of LOTO as very good or good. Not really a resounding endorsement.
[briefly – previous thread
There’s obviously a very hardened dislike of Abbott…and the more he campaigns, the greater the dislike becomes.]
I’m beginning to think Abbott will need to be leading 53-47 at the start of the next campaign.
[Abbott continues to do Shorten slowly…]
Lol. Very slowly.
Where is ESJ? He loves the No 1 spot here.
Doing someone ‘slowly’ is so…………..yesterday.
briefly #7
Shorten’s high PPM ratings are probably so high because ReachTEL does not include an’uncommitted’ option.
Make whatever you want of that.
Maybe there is something to the “least worst option” which means Shorten is a shoe in……..
[The poll also credits the Coalition with a surprisingly narrow 52.6-47.4 lead on the question of which party is more trusted to handle national security.]
This is surely Abbott’s doing with all his hysterical over-reaching and TERROR TERROR TERROR rhetoric on high rotation. Someone needs to remind him that often less can be more.
You only have to look at Q.5:
How would you rate your confidence in the Australian political system?
Almost one in three people surveyed have low or very low confidence.
confessions
And his giving the ABC hell!
TBA, you can huff and puff about Shorten all you want, ALP record another fairly strong lead on TPP.
confessions @17
It the boy who cried Wolf story all over again!!…..People stop listening
The ALP national conference is a month away now. That’s when you’ll get all your Shorten drama.
TrueBlueAussie #9
Abbott’s doing Shorten on what, sir?
1
Guessing due to the issues Shorten is neutralising by keeping lockstep with the LNP. Metadata, asylum seekers, security etc
You can call him a weak leader when he gets his way, and call him a weak leader when he gets rolled at the conference! Everyone wins!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-26/47k-donation-to-victorian-awu-not-disclosed-to-aec/6575508
[An ABC analysis of the union’s accounts has found inconsistencies in the way it has accounted for its revenue, as well as other anomalies.]
Fuel for the fire for the anti-ABC crowd 😉
[And his giving the ABC hell!]
Caught up in the culture wars. As we’ve already seen with his prime ministership, voters disengage, even mark them down when the coalition is in culture war mode.
[It the boy who cried Wolf story all over again!!…..People stop listening]
FWIW nobody in my social network has mentioned TKS or terror terror terror. At work the topic of conversation has been some home renovation show filmed in Geraldton in all places.
[15
Millennial
briefly #7
Shorten’s high PPM ratings are probably so high because ReachTEL does not include an’uncommitted’ option.
Make whatever you want of that.]
When forced to choose – as occurs in a ballot – voters cannot stomach Abbott. His problem now is that voters really do know what he’s like. There is no upside surprise to Tony Abbott; there’s only more of the same rancour, the same lies, the same frauds, the same rancid aggression.
All the spontaneous stupidities have left their indelible marks.
There is really only one way to heal all the bruises and that is to vote Labor.
Hmmm. Is Shorten the dog who caught the car?
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jun/26/bill-shortens-crisis-of-confidence-how-poll-frontrunner-became-hollow-man?CMP=soc_568
[22
mimhoff
The ALP national conference is a month away now. That’s when you’ll get all your Shorten drama.]
National Conference may turn out to be a triumph…why not?
[ALP record another fairly strong lead on TPP.]
But their primary is sinking away and the coalitions is going up. A strong vote for the Greens is the only thing that puts Labor in the positive at all. Hard to see the Labor hardheads being happy with that result.
[But their primary is sinking away and the coalitions is going up. A strong vote for the Greens is the only thing that puts Labor in the positive at all. Hard to see the Labor hardheads being happy with that result.]
It’s within MOE.
“@tomsteinfort: BREAKING: a man carrying a black Islamic flag has attacked a factory in France. First reports just coming through suggest several casualties”
Wait for confirmation but I am posting as I doubt anyone would hoax about this,
“@Simon_Cullen: #Breaking A man has been decapitated and an Islamist flag raised near a French factory in Grenoble, according to local reports.”
[Hard to see the Labor hardheads being happy with that result.]
I reckon they’d be delighted after the week they’ve had.
William
Just as a matter of interest can you please tell me what ReachTEL’s PPM figure was in their last poll.
This latest result seems to be indicating that however poor the voters’opinion is of Bill Shorten they still prefer him to Tony Abbott. That would have to be a bit of a concern to the Liberal’s brain trust I would think.
shellbell
Thanks for the info on the fourcorners situation.
[When forced to choose – as occurs in a ballot – voters cannot stomach Abbott. His problem now is that voters really do know what he’s like. There is no upside surprise to Tony Abbott; there’s only more of the same rancour, the same lies, the same frauds, the same rancid aggression.]
Unfortunately, when unsure, voters sometimes take the ‘devil you know’ option, however unpalatable that may be. The problem is that the alternative is the ‘hold your nose’ and vote for Bill option.
57.2-42.8. So hardly different from this time.
What is the margin of error for this poll?
[30
lizzie
Hmmm. Is Shorten the dog who caught the car?]
Shorten needs to get away from the Parliament and be seen in the community…making speeches, doing the set pieces, making statements directly to voters…The LNP will not give him any room at all in the House. He has to make his own space and use it.
“@abcnews: #BREAKING: French police say they have found one body, apparently decapitated, and several wounded near #Grenoble, #France.”
[What is the margin of error for this poll?]
1.8%, I guess. I’m not really a fan of invoking the margin of error though, as it suggests a bigger samples means a more accurate result, when quite often the opposite is true.
William Bowe
[ I’m not really a fan of invoking the margin of error though, as it suggests a bigger samples means a more accurate result, when quite often the opposite is true.]
How so ? Ta.
Thanks William
Also, am I right in saying that you regard ReachTEL as having a house effect towards the Liberals? Or have I got it the wrong way around?
The theoretical (key word) MoE on a Galaxy poll is 2.8%; for Morgan, it’s 1.8%. Which is the better poll? Galaxy. All the higher error margin tells us is that it has a smaller sample, and the reason it has a smaller sample is that it doesn’t spare the expense of using superior survey methods.
Not a good result for the LNP. They have been getting down and dirty lately for little gain. Is it just me or is it only Newspoll who had the awful personal ratings for Shorten?
WB
[superior survey methods.]
Should have thought of that.
BludgerTrack attributes to ReachTEL a Labor bias of about 0.2%. Mark the Ballot has it 0.03% the other way. So two-fifths of fuck-all in either case.