ReachTEL has its latest more-or-less monthly federal poll result this evening for the Seven Network, and it shows Labor’s lead at its narrowest since October, at 52-48 compared with 53-47 at the previous poll on May 13. This one was conducted last night, from a sample of 2907. The primary votes are 41.9% for the Coalition, up 0.8%; 37.0% for Labor, down 1.3%; 13.1% for the Greens, up 1.0% (offering further support for their recent upward trend); and a new low of 1.3% for Palmer United, which had hitherto been doing relatively well out of ReachTEL, down 0.9% on last time. The poll also credits the Coalition with a surprisingly narrow 52.6-47.4 lead on the question of which party is more trusted to handle national security.
Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have taken another hit – his combined very good and good rating is down from 23.4% to 20.0%, while poor and very poor shoots up from 39.2% to 46.2%. Tony Abbott’s net rating is down for the first time since the February leadership spill vote, his combined very good and good rating of 27.5% comparing with 28.1% last time, while poor plus very poor edges up from 52.0% to 52.5%. Furthermore, Shorten maintains a 56.3-43.7 lead as preferred prime minister, continuing ReachTEL’s record of strong results for him on this measure, which is conducted differently from other pollsters in that there is no uncommitted option.
Thanks William – and very eloquently put.
“@lucethoughts: Someone just told me I was ‘lefty scum’ as I got onto my train at Central. Had my ABC pass still on. Wow.”
I’m calling the ABC out on being biased. Barely 30 secs devoted to news on their sport show Grandstand for the Matildas who play Japan this Sunday in the 1/4 finals.
[guytaur
Posted Friday, June 26, 2015 at 7:41 pm | PERMALINK
“@lucethoughts: Someone just told me I was ‘lefty scum’ as I got onto my train at Central. Had my ABC pass still on.]
That’s the Abbott influence coming through. He is the scum in this country, not people like you
mikehilliard@53
I was interested to see the number of letters to the editor in the age urging a better go for women’s sport, particularly with the success of the Matildas.
It is good to see that so many of the writers, a majority I think, are men.
Yes, I have become a Matildas fan.
[“@abcnews: #BREAKING: French police say they have found one body, apparently decapitated, and several wounded near #Grenoble, #France.”]
Meanwhile the news tonight has three people dead at Nyngan NSW and a plea for information on the missing toddler whose fourth birthday is today. Are these incidents any less terrible because there was no IS flag involved?
bemused @55
If they win the world cup just watch Abbott make them “his” Matildas + flags + work in a terrorism angle.
mikehilliard@57
Yes, quite predictable.
From the little I have seen, I am in awe of their skills. Every bit as entertaining as the men. And such good role models for young girls to inspire them into sport.
William uses the most eloquent econometric terms 🙂
citizen @56
The media have been briefed by Abbott.
mikehilliard @ 53
Always founf it funny when people said the bias against soccer in the media was tin foil hate stuff. Yeah, cause there’s no conspiracies in the media… 😉
Telling Bill Shorten attack video, which I take to have been put together for this weekend’s Federal Council meeting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQKvoXJpyrE&feature=youtu.be
mikehilliard @ 57
And let’s not forget Abbott’s cuts to ABC and SBS have led to the W-League being dropped by the ABC. I used to enjoy watching that.
Bishop Jnr making events in France (all conjecture) part of our great war on terror FFS.
The satisfaction figures for the PM and the LOTL are not directly comparable, because the people being polled are asked how they rate the incumbents in their current jobs.
In particular, Mr Shorten’s approval ratings do not indicate how people assess him as a potential PM (though some respondents may, of course, have misinterpreted the question that way).
It’s interesting that Mr Abbott’s support from his own side as PM is much stronger than Mr Shorten’s support from his own side as LOTL. But that could easily reflect the sense one often gets from posters here that Mr Shorten isn’t going in hard enough against the government, and therefore isn’t much of an Opposition Leader.
From this perspective, the fact that Mr Shorten isn’t much approved as LOTL but is quite strongly preferred over Mr Abbott as a potential PM makes reasonable sense.
Telling?
You kidding? Is this the famous Bowe “irojy”?
Irony
cityboy
The womens games are so good to watch because they play, how to I put this, like “real” players. They are excellent & professional but still a bit raw which I think is a result of being low paid so not trained to the nth degree.
Telling with respect to the tone of the Liberals’ next election campaign.
WB
Stop posting “click bait” 😀 You made me increase the number of views by 5%.
[ Telling Bill Shorten attack video, which I take to have been put together for this weekend’s Federal Council meeting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQKvoXJpyrE&feature=youtu.be ]
Bill Shorten … too ambitious for Australia!
re the attack video, I wouldn’t want to fly with Bill ‘too much baggage’
[re the attack video, I wouldn’t want to fly with Bill ‘too much baggage’]
Not as much as Tone.
Can’t wait for the Abbott attack video, oh wait someone has already made it. Posted 1 millions times already – you know the noddy one.
Well, it certainly seems they’ve drilled deep into the focus groups and come out with some sort of “message” about Bill Shorten.
The Whirling Dervish is flailing, way too soon in my opinion. Looking for a 1st round knockout.
The other guy isn’t even in the ring yet.
Gary
Tone’s baggage is more a baggage train.
[Posted 1 millions times already – you know the noddy one.]
Yet it never, to my knowledge, featured in Labor’s television advertising. Why ever not?
[ Yet it never, to my knowledge, featured in Labor’s television advertising. Why ever not? ]
No-one would believe it.
Here we go. Expect 12 flags next time.
[“Nous sommes… er, who are we today?”]
So that makes it 1 by terrorists in the last week and over a dozen by gunshot wounds in the US. Two Australian women have died at the hands of their spouses. Add in the 8 or 9 killed on the roads, and the hundreds of deaths from various forms of cancer.
Which one should we give up our freedoms and rights to free speech for?
One guess. No peeking.
[Paris: One man has been killed and several injured in a suspected terrorist attack on a factory in south-estern France that bore the hallmarks of Islamist militants.
French media said a decapitated head was found at the site, along with a flag bearing Islamist inscriptions, after the attack about 10am local time on Friday.
A police source said he could not confirm the decapitation but said it looked as if it was the case. One suspect had been arrested, an official told BFMTV television.
…
France’s terrorism alert has been at it highest level since the January attacks in Paris, which were carried out by a radicalised trio, catapulting France’s capital onto the front pages of newspapers around the world.
The attack led the French government to mobilise 10,000 soldiers to guard vulnerable sites around the country.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/islamist-flag-found-after-man-killed-in-attack-in-france-20150626-ghyyou.html ]
[Yet it never, to my knowledge, featured in Labor’s television advertising. Why ever not?]
Really. I guess there’s still time, he’s PM now so could be more damaging if Labor did run it in attack mode. I think there’s better material though, actually a plethora so the editing room will be busy.
Scott Morrison’s kept quiet for months, but now he’s opening his trap, and in the most disturbing way!
http://junkee.com/scott-morrison-reckons-getting-a-job-is-a-prescription-for-young-people-with-mental-health-problems/60157
As a recently-diagnosed sufferer from depression, I’d just like to say to Scott Morrison: Shut your trap, you spiv!
Yes, the glow of achievement does ward off active depression – for a while. Not forever, and not even for very long, particularly if the “achievement” is getting a crappy, stressful or nasty job.
Every time they open their yaps, this bunch remind us how effing privileged they’ve all been…and, consequently, how out of touch they are now that they enjoy power.
Bring on the election, and make it a double dissolution, too!
Also on “margin of error”, MOE can be extracted from sample size and the result based on the assumption that each survey response carries the same weighting. However in the scaling process used by most pollsters, responses are weighted up or down to correct for sample biases. Scaling slightly increases the in-theory MOE. In rare cases I’ve seen pollsters adjust for this in their released MOE figures, but most just ignore it and then don’t release enough info for the reader to work out the MOE for themselves.
mikehilliard @ 68
Agreed. I’m especially disappointed as my team is fielding a women’s side for the first time next season and it would have made it better to have a race in the race so to speak. If the Matildas win it all and Abbott tries to tie himself to their success Labor should throw it back in his face. People will call it “playing politics” but that’s the game. The Matildas won win the WC by playing tiddlywinks and Labor won’t win office by playing tea party.
Sorry, that got rantier than I expected.
William Bowe @ 77: Might there be an issue concerning copyright to the clip?
William Bowe@50
I also get 0.2 to ALP.
William Bowe
Posted Friday, June 26, 2015 at 8:23 pm | PERMALINK
[“Posted 1 millions times already – you know the noddy one.”
Yet it never, to my knowledge, featured in Labor’s television advertising. Why ever not?]
Probably because John Oliver beat Labor to it. 2:45
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3IaKVmkXuk
Justv as you think you can trust Lenore Taylor to go against the relentless grind of Press Gallery Group Think, she comes up with this shit:
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jun/26/bill-shortens-crisis-of-confidence-how-poll-frontrunner-became-hollow-man
In all of two weeks Bill Shorten has gone from opinion poll leading iron man to self-doubting dunderhead.
You either believe that, or you believe the Group Think has taken a grip and no-one, not even Lenore Taylor, is immune.
[ William Bowe @ 77: Might there be an issue concerning copyright to the clip? ]
Can you copyright stupidity? If so, Abbott is a rich man!
Just watched the video without audio (I’m at the football). They must be REALLY worried. Perhaps they are picking up the same drum as the Reachtel PPM.
However, it’s too over the top to convince anyone other than a rusted on. In fact might even lose the LNP a few votes in the middle.
BB
Is there something the CPG know that we dont?
[ In rare cases I’ve seen pollsters adjust for this in their released MOE figures, but most just ignore it and then don’t release enough info for the reader to work out the MOE for themselves.]
The only pollster I’ve ever seen do it is Lonergan.
BB@87
[Justv as you think you can trust Lenore Taylor to go against the relentless grind of Press Gallery Group Think, she comes up with this shit]
Yeah, my sentiments also. She must have got the ABC memo.
As a Green I am so totally uninspired by Bill Shorten, so those numbers don’t surprise me in the slightest. I hope he beats Abbott, I just don’t like him or really want him as my PM.
This is coming from someone who strongly liked both Rudd and Gillard despite their policies.
William, I’ve calculated the TPP for this ReachTEL poll, and I get 51.63 to Labor.
Is this correct, because the Others vote for ReachTEL polls seem undervalued, in relation to other polls and BludgerTrack.
PhoenixGreen
[ As a Green … ]
Aha! I think I see the problem.
@Player One
If I’m simply not the target audience, that’s fine by me, I’m happy with the Greens. Just attempting to explain the poll results mentioned earlier, and possibly also a factor in the unusually strong Green vote.
Others vote excluding Palmer United, that is.
I get 51.8, but I don’t know what you mean by “the Others vote for ReachTEL polls seem undervalued, in relation to other polls and BludgerTrack”. Why would ReachTEL’s relationship to other polls affect how its primary votes translate into 2PP?
PhoenixGreen@93
As an ALP member, I am sublimely indifferent to the petty point scoring of you and sundry other Greens.
Whether Green voters are turned on or not by whoever is the Labor leader is surely irrelevant. Their preferences invariably come back to Labor, so…whatever.