ReachTEL has its latest more-or-less monthly federal poll result this evening for the Seven Network, and it shows Labor’s lead at its narrowest since October, at 52-48 compared with 53-47 at the previous poll on May 13. This one was conducted last night, from a sample of 2907. The primary votes are 41.9% for the Coalition, up 0.8%; 37.0% for Labor, down 1.3%; 13.1% for the Greens, up 1.0% (offering further support for their recent upward trend); and a new low of 1.3% for Palmer United, which had hitherto been doing relatively well out of ReachTEL, down 0.9% on last time. The poll also credits the Coalition with a surprisingly narrow 52.6-47.4 lead on the question of which party is more trusted to handle national security.
Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have taken another hit – his combined very good and good rating is down from 23.4% to 20.0%, while poor and very poor shoots up from 39.2% to 46.2%. Tony Abbott’s net rating is down for the first time since the February leadership spill vote, his combined very good and good rating of 27.5% comparing with 28.1% last time, while poor plus very poor edges up from 52.0% to 52.5%. Furthermore, Shorten maintains a 56.3-43.7 lead as preferred prime minister, continuing ReachTEL’s record of strong results for him on this measure, which is conducted differently from other pollsters in that there is no uncommitted option.
PhoenixGreen #93
That’s why it’s good that the Opposition does not entirely contain of just Bill Shorten.
As to the Shorten ‘attack’ video.
1. Serious blokesville. Not a woman’s voice in earshot. Does this kind of stuff still resonate more universally? I honestly don’t know, but if my own social network is any indication, then no.
2. References to that long-forgotten-yet-never-really-an-issue carbon tax.
3. Early in the peace for a LOTO attack video?
Millennial,
William adds 0.14 for the Nat’s and Lib’s tripping over each other’s preferences. Which also makes your sums end up 51.8
Well spotted, Question.
At the beginning of Abbott’s government, I thought that there would be a very long period where basically anyone p**ed off with the government would move to the Greens or Others, and that movement towards Labor would be a lot slower.
My reasoning was that the reaction to a poor Abbott government would be ‘a curse on both your houses’ – we tried Labor, that didn’t work, we tried Liberal, that didn’t work, so let’s go Green/Other.
This hasn’t happened to anywhere the extent I expected. If Palmer is included in Other, it looks like that’s actually gone backwards. The Green vote has improved, yes, but they’re basically back on trend (having gone backwards in 2013).
Regardless of Shorten’s performance – and who knows, perhaps because of it – Labor’s position at this stage in the cycle SHOULD be astonishing people, rather than having them wonder why it isn’t better.
I personally think Bill Shorten has done a decent, if slightly dreary, job as LOTO. Even if some on the left have their doubts about him, surely the top priority would be to get Tony voted out
Zoomster
According to the commenteriat, Shorten is doomed
Twitter seems to be frothing with anger towards Abbott’s comments. Partly for attacking Aunty and partly for the heads will roll comment. Will the media run with a “Abbott under fire after latest comments” headline tomorrow? Doubt it.
abbott would be long gone except for shorten – the polls should be wider – shorten is insincere, dull, incapable – golden opportunity lost
Thank’s William.
i am glad liberals doing the job that labor cant do themselves
danger is shorten will tough it out and be there at next election esp in early one
In the last few hours some awful murders occurred
3 dead in family matter in Nyngan
8 killed in bomb in Kuwait mosque
1 killed in a French factory, with an Islamic flag on premises
Which one is going to dominate our MSM?
“surely the top priority would be to get Tony voted out”
So much this. I’ve never cared less about personality contests when the policies of one side are so destructive
[Regardless of Shorten’s performance – and who knows, perhaps because of it – Labor’s position at this stage in the cycle SHOULD be astonishing people, rather than having them wonder why it isn’t better.]
Agree completely zoom and anyone who watched the last week and though Shorten had trouble and Abbott was cruising is either likely to lose a battle of wits with TBA or just lying.
[ Early in the peace for a LOTO attack video? ]
Cash Splash Budget, PM toured marginal seats, mud slung, attack Ads released…
There’s actually a general election tomorrow but due to “security concerns” only those on a special email list have been told about it
William Bowe
Oh, what I mean is, in this ReachTEL poll, the Others vote is 6.7%. In the most recent Eseential and Newspoll, the Others vote was about 9-10% (assuming that the disclosed 12% from Newspoll is 2% Palmer and 10% Others).
Furthermore, comparing the primaries from this poll to the most current BludgerTrack (I’m assuming that polls published within a day of BludgerTrack’s weekly publication are bound to be within the polling trend without too much deviation) we get: 40% and 41.8% for the Coalition; 36.8% and 37% for Labor; 13% and 13.1% for the Greens; both 1.3% for Palmer United; 8.9% and 6.7 for Others; by BludgerTrack and ReachTEL respectively.
I do realize this is only two totally unrelated polls and a polling aggregate, and so I have limited information at this point (and the Newspoll’s a week old now) so perhaps I should limit it to the most recent ReachTEL, and my original post was disingenuous in that regard.
I apologized for my horrible phrasing of what I meant; and if to an experienced psephologist my posts seem like rambling crazy talk, feel free to correct me. If I’m just trying to make pattern out of amounts to random noise, then there’s no need for me to keep prolonging the discussion.
[Twitter seems to be frothing with anger towards Abbott’s comments.]
Personally I find twitter to be even less representative of community sentiment than Facebook.
William Bowe
Oh, what I mean is, in this ReachTEL poll, the Others vote is 6.7%. In the most recent Essential and Newspoll, the Others vote was about 9-10% (assuming that the disclosed 12% from Newspoll is 2% Palmer and 10% Others).
Furthermore, comparing the primaries from this poll to the most current BludgerTrack (I’m assuming that polls published within a day of BludgerTrack’s weekly publication are bound to be within the polling trend without too much deviation) we get: 40% and 41.8% for the Coalition; 36.8% and 37% for Labor; 13% and 13.1% for the Greens; both 1.3% for Palmer United; 8.9% and 6.7 for Others; by BludgerTrack and ReachTEL respectively.
I do realize this is only two totally unrelated polls and a polling aggregate, and so I have limited information at this point (and the Newspoll’s a week old now) so perhaps I should limit it to the most recent ReachTEL, and my original post was disingenuous in that regard.
I apologized for my horrible phrasing of what I meant; and if to an experienced psephologist my posts seem like rambling crazy talk, feel free to correct me. If I’m just trying to make pattern out of amounts to random noise, then there’s no need for me to keep prolonging the discussion.
Question #103
Ah, thanks Question, that makes sense.
I started watching the Liberals’ latest YouTube effort, but then nodded off at about the 1 minute mark.
Of course they have to work with what they’ve got, but against the background of Australians’ generally low assessment of politicians in general, does it really say anything more than that Mr Shorten is a politician? Show me a politician at that level who hasn’t got baggage.
My guess is that provided Mr Shorten isn’t caught crossing the species barrier between now and 2016, he will be eminently electable if people’s assessments of Mr Abbott don’t improve radically.
I agree, when it comes to baggage – Abbott is Denver Airport
If you’re saying the others result in ReachTEL seems a bit on the low side, then I guess it does a bit – but now I look at it, this turns out to be par for the course from ReachTEL.
When the last Ipsos poll came out two weeks ago it had labor ahead 53-47, Bill Shorten increasing his lead over Abbott. Shorten and Abbott was fuc**d with his budget bounce nothing but a memory according to Fairfax.
Then one day later Newspoll at 51-49 and Shorten has been doomed ever since in the eyes of the MSM.
Bugger good Essentials, a improving Morgan, one bad Newspoll and that is the only evidence the MSM needs.
THE MSM live in a bubble and feed off nothing but each other.
Lenore Taylor etc etc are all part of it. There are no heroes and defenders of good in the MSM. They are all nothing but false gods and people need to stop believing in any of them.
Cheers and a good night to all.
WWP
[Agree completely zoom and anyone who watched the last week and though Shorten had trouble and Abbott was cruising is either likely to lose a battle of wits with TBA or just lying.]
I’m pretty sure Abbott thinks he was cruising and Shorten had trouble ;).
William Bowe #122
Thanks William, I had suspected that ReachTEL Others result being low being normal for ReachTEL, but I didn’t think to check more older polls for it.
Thanks for clearing that up.
So… In short: Abbott still getting thumped in the polls. Just like before his amazing ‘recovery’.
Scoop Toolman, signing off….
[105
zoomster
Labor’s position at this stage in the cycle SHOULD be astonishing people, rather than having them wonder why it isn’t better.]
Doesn’t matter how well he does, the bar will always be set ever higher. It’s ridiculous. He only has to win.
I was girding myself for at least two terms of Abbott. But as nervous as I still am, I am also very relieved and even pleased with how things have turned out so far.
Most of the worst of Abbott’s shit has been blocked, he has been exposed for the vicious loon he really is, and Labor have lead comfortably (and often handsomely) in the polls for almost two years and without breaking a sweat.
The MSM are off with the fairies on this one. Particularly disappointed to see Lenore Taylor and Laura Tingle – who I both respect – fall for it.
If Shorten Labor win this one, it really will be the sweetest victory of them all.
Just me
I do wonder why Tingle and Taylor have turned. Cos as far as I can tell, Abbott has had stuff ups. Citizenship cabinet leaks, the monis letter fiasco and the Asio maps scenario. Weird
[I’m pretty sure Abbott thinks he was cruising and Shorten had trouble 😉 .]
He is almost as stupid as his followers
In other news, Australians trust ABC over Abbott by factor of 2-1.
But boy, aren’t that pathetic minority of 30% noisy?
http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/06/26/whose-side-are-you-on/
I wonder if release of the attack video will be reported as ‘further pressure on Bill Shorten’.
Regarding the welfare ‘crackdown’ it seems that IPA is leading the charge of the ‘must have crackdown on frauds – meaning those with illness is frauds’ on Welfare payments.
This was when I was passing by the TV (on ACA).
Richard Chirgwin @R_Chirgwin 31m31 minutes ago
The ALP has rendered itself less than a wine-stained bookmark in history.
I agree, the ALP is just a Coalition Party.
confessions @ 117
I suppose. Words don’t seem to be LNP voters strong point. The LNP voters that are on there are have reduced themselves to slander and personal attacks instead of anything of substance.
Been watching Pres Hollande and Interior Minister Cazeneuve talking about the French attack.
Both use very sober language, no talking up in any way of “we must be scared”. Hollande says the attack “has the hallmarks of a terrorist attack”.
I commented to OH how vastly different to Abbott’s continual dogwhistling about terrorism the Frenchies are, taking it in their stride and talking only on a factual basis.
Then they switch to JBishop. She immediately talks about “the terorist attack in France” in one sentence, then launches into domestic hyperbole about how we should be all shivering in our boots with fear.
Shallow idjits with absolutely no class about them.
BB
[The Whirling Dervish is flailing, way too soon in my opinion. Looking for a 1st round knockout.]
Sorry, BB, much of your stuff is absolutely terrific, but I cannot cope with your references to ‘whirling dervishes’ in relation to Captain Chaos. Whirling Dervishes are actually mystical sufi muslims who ‘whirl’ as a form of transcendental meditation and actually are quite beautiful to see in their being in the moment as they spin on the spot:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mevlevi_Order
I am wondering whether you have Taz, the Looney Tunes Tasmanian devil in mind, rather than a whirling dervish when you use the reference:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_Devil_(Looney_Tunes)
Journos see insider crap like the royal commission witch hunt into unions and assume it’s a game changer. it wasn’t w Gillard, but never mind that.
Yeah Shorto looked daft when he had to retreat over people smuggler bribes. But outsiders aren’t that interested in the end.
I’ve long maintained that Abbott is nothing more than the third phase of the Rudd-Gillard fiasco.
He was used to punish labor for its stupidity – but the public loathe him.
They’ve shown no sign of re-electing him since, and my guess is they never will.
It will bounce around from 51-53 ALP until poll day 2016 and Shorten will be the next PM
PhoenixGreen @93:
[As a Green I am so totally uninspired by Bill Shorten, so those numbers don’t surprise me in the slightest. I hope he beats Abbott, I just don’t like him or really want him as my PM.]
And as another Green, I’m kinda “meh” about Shorten – but if he will deliver us from this Government, I’ll gladly carry him to The Lodge myself!
And that’s leaving aside the considerable acumen he’s displayed – he’s kept Labor on-track, stopped any factional infighting (or at least kept it private enough that the ever-starving media can’t sniff it out) and has embarrassed Tony Abbott a number of times in Parliament. The fact that the media would rather take poison than give him positive coverage isn’t his fault.
[Whether Green voters are turned on or not by whoever is the Labor leader is surely irrelevant. Their preferences invariably come back to Labor, so…whatever]
Not all Greens preferences do – bear that in mind.
[I’m pretty sure Abbott thinks he was cruising]
There is/was a saying that one is “cruising for a bruising”
https://www.facebook.com/WhereIsMyOstrich/photos/pb.372247669551710.-2207520000.1435319979./719493321493808/?type=1&theater
The killing of a PM.
Re Lefty e @137:
[“Yeah Shorto looked daft when he had to retreat over people smuggler bribes. But outsiders aren’t that interested in the end.”]
He looked daft because he didn’t have to. Labor did not turn back boats, so can’t have bribed anyone to do it. Abbott has virtually admitted that his Government did. His cheer squad said, when their lot does it, it’s OK.
As you all know I have my problems with Labor policies and tactics. However I do agree with the analysis by zoomster.
Its as I said earlier today. Mr Shorten gave a speech and I have not seen highlights or mentions of it so far.
This is why its a truism governments lose opposition’s do not win. All an opposition can do is position itself to be an alternate government.
Where an opposition does make a difference is when the attack begins in the election year.
We have all seen Mr Shorten fired up and passionate. I think that is what we are going to see in the election campaign.
The only proviso to all this is of course if the RC has a smoking gun and we get Mr Albanese as leader. That will change the dynamics.
This is why I still say its very real that it will be one term Tony because of the consistent polling to date.
I was quite surprised to see Lenore Taylor’s analysis of Shorten’s current leadership because, as others here have noted, she does not seem to run with the groupthink the way others are doing.
I wonder if there is something going on that we are not seeing. Certainly, I don’t think Abbott’s over-the-top hysteria directed at Bill Shorten and Labor over the ABC and ‘national security’ is having an impact. Maybe there is more going on regarding the Royal Commission than we realise or maybe other matters are impacting on him. I don’t see weakness there, but I’m not anywhere near close enough to make a judgement.
On the other hand, it could just be that he is distracted by a range of things to attend, given that Abbott seems to have move to permanent pre-election conduct – even if he has no concrete plans to call an early election.
Although I hate using the phrase (despite using it a few times already in the last few days), time will tell. Labor does have some serious stuff to address in proceeding to an election but I would still favour Labor over Abbott whenever an election is called. To put it bluntly, this government inspires so little confidence in its ability to manage what is generally regarded as its strong points that even a blind drover’s dog could roll it under Abbott at an election.
Journalists are trying to guess what the public are seeing.
Often, because not everyone sees everything or interprets events the same way, there are multiple narratives/viewpoints and not enough data to choose between them.
In such situations, political commentators should try identify all viable narratives and report/track each one.
guytaur at 142
[The only proviso to all this is of course if the RC has a smoking gun and we get Mr Albanese as leader. That will change the dynamics.]
Exactly. We don’t know what we don’t know. But based on what we do know I cannot see an Abbott led Coalition government getting another term.
TPOF
LT indicates that she has been talking to Labor politicians and that much of the concern comes from them.
Politicians are also trying to read minds.
Personally, I don’t think we can conclude who had a good or bad week until we see some more polls. There are events on both sides of politics that, if voters latched onto them, could mean either side of politics had a bad week.
I wouldn’t say Abbott has had a good week, except in the sense that he got in the political plays he wanted.
[I wouldn’t say Abbott has had a good week, except in the sense that he got in the political plays he wanted.
]
And Hockey didn’t do any media appearances.
DN
The consistency of the polls tell us the LNP will have to have an extraordinarily good week to change the polls. There was more bounce during the tail end of the Gillard period.
sorry volatility not bounce