ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings sink still further in the latest result from ReachTEL, but the Coalition yields only a modest dividend on voting intention.

ReachTEL has its latest more-or-less monthly federal poll result this evening for the Seven Network, and it shows Labor’s lead at its narrowest since October, at 52-48 compared with 53-47 at the previous poll on May 13. This one was conducted last night, from a sample of 2907. The primary votes are 41.9% for the Coalition, up 0.8%; 37.0% for Labor, down 1.3%; 13.1% for the Greens, up 1.0% (offering further support for their recent upward trend); and a new low of 1.3% for Palmer United, which had hitherto been doing relatively well out of ReachTEL, down 0.9% on last time. The poll also credits the Coalition with a surprisingly narrow 52.6-47.4 lead on the question of which party is more trusted to handle national security.

Bill Shorten’s personal ratings have taken another hit – his combined very good and good rating is down from 23.4% to 20.0%, while poor and very poor shoots up from 39.2% to 46.2%. Tony Abbott’s net rating is down for the first time since the February leadership spill vote, his combined very good and good rating of 27.5% comparing with 28.1% last time, while poor plus very poor edges up from 52.0% to 52.5%. Furthermore, Shorten maintains a 56.3-43.7 lead as preferred prime minister, continuing ReachTEL’s record of strong results for him on this measure, which is conducted differently from other pollsters in that there is no uncommitted option.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,093 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Also, Labor didn’t seem to get in what they wanted.

    However, what either side wants and what is significant to voters are not necessarily the same thing.

  4. victoria

    Yes umpiring is going to be the talking point of the week. Showing again my views about too many changes for adjustment.

    By umpies and players. They need to just keep the same rules for a few years.

  5. guytaur @ 149
    Political commentators (including us) are just guessing at what everyone else thinks, and it seems to me the polls are telling us that politicians are not guessing right, journalists are not guessing right, and perhaps neither are we.

    When did the polls move? Well, early on when the Coalition first tried to break a whole bunch of promises. Then the budget. Then Tony Abbott refusing to get out of our faces beginning with the G20 and leading up to his NDE. A significant bump around the Queensland state election and the NDE. The polls seems to have narrowed after each of these things when politics quietened, not in response to politicking.

    Boats early on did not shift things. National security has so far failed to shift things – I think we need another few weeks to make a reasonable guess at the effect of NS saturating the news.

  6. TKS has not seemed to shift things.

    How about TURC and Shorten’s recent bad press? We’re still waiting to see if those have any effect.

  7. DN

    Yes I agree with that. It does show however that as LOTO Mr Shorten is doing a good job despite the latest chorus of get Shorten.

    That 2pp in a first term to the oppositions is extremely telling

  8. I don’t know whether Shorten is doing a good job, but (despite my complaints) I don’t think he’s doing a bad job.

  11. Given the past two weeks I don’t see how either side can get a material bounce. Both sides are generally blustering along as usual.

  15. DN @158, I think that just about sums it up.
    We won’t know any better until something like the RC comes up, or more usually an election.

  16. The popular belief is that governments lose elections but from where we are today the next election is Labor’s to lose. Abbott basically lost 2016 in his first disastrous 12 months.

  17. What strikes me is how fickle the commentariat is and by commentariat I mean the range from bloggers to journos. It’s as if they are all entirely captivated by the moment, the vibe. I suppose itt reflects a desire to be relevant and noticed. This week’s vibe will be reduntant in a fortnight.

  20. Re Lenore Taylor’s article. I think it is on the money. I have often pegged Shorten from either suffering depression or gets bored because he is too bright. I think he will rise to the occasion.

    Today’s SMH article was interesting. I felt it was challenging Shorten to stand up and have a go. I believe he is capable of pulling this off.

  23. Agreed Bemused. I grew up listening to Robeson, and the Ink Spots.

    Life then led me to Springsteen in 1975.

  32. Re DN@156: I don’t know but think it likely that Bill Shorten’s alleged problems with the Trade Union Witchhunt are a giant furphy, gaving even less substantial than Julia Gillard’s poor choice of a boyfriend 20 years ago. Look at what the Liberal-Murdoch Dirt Units have dug up so far – than Bill Shorten was involved in negotiating a deal that seemed to have been a win-win. There’s nothing there.

    As to ‘The Killing Season’ – what? Christopher Pyne, who can barely open his mouth without lying, condemns Bill Shorten for admitting that he was economical with the truth with a shock-jock about Labor Caucus rumblings? What a crock! Why isn’t Pyne being ridiculed for the mendacious, obnoxious twerp that he is?

    Shorten has no questions to answer from what is available in the Punlic domain.

  37. Rossmore@ 167..

    “What strikes me is how fickle the commentariat is and by commentariat I mean the range from bloggers to journos. It’s as if they are all entirely captivated by the moment, the vibe. I suppose itt reflects a desire to be relevant and noticed. This week’s vibe will be reduntant in a fortnight”

    ..most perceptive comment about the current political commentators disconnect from reality. Thanx Rossmore you have crystallised my thoughts into one short paragraph 🙂

  40. Geez, I love ‘Joe Hill’ ..a simple but inspirational song which still makes the hair stand up on the back of my neck..

    Love both Robeson’s & Baez’s version..

  45. “@POTUS: Today is a big step in our march toward equality. Gay and lesbian couples now have the right to marry, just like anyone else. #LoveWins”

  47. [Held: The Fourteenth Amendment requires a State to license a marriage between two people of the same sex and to recognize a marriage between two people of the same sex when their marriage was lawfully licensed and performed out-of-State.]

    http://t.co/bowY12Mcvz

  50. @DLanceBlack: Six years ago I promised LGBT people federal equality from a very big stage. Today a monumental piece of that puzzle is in place. #LoveWins

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