Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A slight move to the Coalition off a low base in this fortnight’s Roy Morgan poll, and Newspoll state breakdowns that confirm a picture of Coalition improvement being driven by New South Wales.

There’s a three-week gap between Newspolls as the new management takes effect, with Galaxy to assume the reins with a survey this weekend. That means the fortnightly release schedules of Morgan and Newspoll are now out of line, and will hopefully remain so. This week’s Morgan result, from 3282 face-to-face and SMS responses over the past two weekends, records a slight shift to the Coalition, but does off a particularly weak result last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 39%, Labor is down by the same amount to 36%, and the Greens are up half a point to 14%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred is down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5, while on previous election preferences the shift is from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47.

Also out this evening is a last hurrah from Newspoll in the shape of its quarterly aggregates of federal voting intention broken by state. GhostWhoVotes relates that these show a 50-50 split in New South Wales, compared with a 54-46 lead to Labor last time and consistent with the story being told of late by BludgerTrack; a Labor lead of 57-43 in Victoria, down from 59-41; a Labor lead of 52-48 in Queensland, compared with 50-50 last time; a 50-50 result in Western Australia, compared with an improbable Labor lead of 54-46 last time; and a 52-48 Labor lead in South Australia, down from 53-47 last time. Hopefully there will be a link to full tables from The Australian reasonably soon, as well as gender breakdowns. (UPDATE: All of that here, with a tip of the hat to Leroy Lynch).

Stay tuned for Essential Research, which as always will be with us later today.

UPDATE (Essential Research): For the first time in two months, Essential Research has budged from its 52-48 perch, with Labor’s lead in the fortnightly rolling aggregate increasing to 53-47. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged with the Coalition on 41%, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 1%, the only movement being a one-point increase for the Greens.

There is also a question on trust in particular media outlets, which as ever finds the Fairfax papers on top, The Australian slightly below, and News Corp tabloids further down still (responses were limited to those living in the papers’ relevant states). There appears to be a general downward trend here over results going back to 2011, most explicitly in the case of the Courier-Mail, which has adopted a highly partisan tone since that time, although The Age is well down over that time for reasons that are less clear to me. Even more entertainingly, the poll inquires on recognition and trust in various journalists, and finds Laurie Oakes, Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones leading on name recognition, but with the former topping the table on trust while the latter two occupy the bottom slots. Jon Faine of ABC Radio in Victoria also performed rather weakly among those who recognised him, for some reason.

There is also a question on funding of schools, for which the clear leader out of four options is having the federal government be “the main funder of all schools”. A question on whether Australian troops should fight Islamic State in Iraq records an even balance of support, with 41% in favour and 43% opposed, which is perhaps a little more hawkish than I would have guessed, and probably tells you something about reaction to the words “Islamic State”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,200 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. So Bloke,

    by your definition of democracy, Australia has only had fleeting glimpses in 1916, 1917 and 1977.

    Not a good record eh Sister?

  2. The NYT on Greek crisis..

    A FOREIGN delegation representing a powerful alliance confronts a small Mediterranean country with an ultimatum. Either join our alliance, pay ruinous dues and cede your national sovereignty, or you will be destroyed. Unwilling to allow the delegation to present its case to their fellow citizens, the country’s political elite tries to buy time. But appeals to reason, pragmatism and common decency fail to budge the visitors. When the elite finally replies that it is not prepared to surrender its nation’s freedom, the delegation withdraws and, true to its threat, crushes the rebellious country.

    Sound familiar? Apart from a few details, the situation resembles the present standoff between Greece and the European Union. Yet this particular scene took place 2,500 years ago. Then, too, Greece was the arena, with the powerful city-state of Athens pitted against the small island of Melos. In his magnificent history of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides recreates, or perhaps created, the encounter in 416 B.C. between the commanders of an Athenian fleet and leaders of the small island polis of Melos. There are sobering parallels between then and now that may offer insight into our current predicament.

  3. 1150

    A common European currency is a good idea. The problem is they do not have the transfer union or enough of associated democratic institutions to be able to run a common currency and that wealthier conservative Germans have too much influence and have shaped the project to their benefit and the disbenefit of almost the entirety of the rest of the Euorzone..

  4. Blaming the left for your pathetic little policies TBA means shit all in the real world.

    The bigger issue is at home of lack of policies, means no plebiscites in the first place.

    Nice try to scare the shit out of so called “left” TBA.

    Try again next time.

  5. MB @ 1074..

    “Anyway, almost time for Charlie Pickering’s show which, in spite of being completely derivative of Stewart, Colbert, Oliver et al (not to mention the granddaddy of this style of TV, Clive James), is really, really funny.”

    Actually they’re all completely derivative of ThatWasTheWeekThatWas with David Frost ..the great granddaddy of them all..

    “That Was the Week That Was, informally TWTWTW or TW3, was a satirical television comedy programme on BBC Television in 1962 and 1963. It was devised, produced and directed by Ned Sherrin and presented by David Frost.”

  6. A common European currency is a good idea.

    This is debatable.

    Economically speaking, having different types of economies using different currencies that allow for exchange rate movements to compensate for dynamic issues that arise is a big thing to throw away. Internal fiscal equalization through closer fiscal integration is all well and good, and it would make the Euro more workable than it is, but it is not a superior economic structure.

    The question is whether there are sufficient efficiencies and non-economic (social, political) advantages to a common currency to outweigh the rigidity and tensions created by removing currency exchange.

    My view has long been that the European economies are too disparate and that a common currency would inevitably lead to serious stress and market distortions, even with a closer fiscal union.

  7. TtFaB #1156
    Basically, what you’re saying is the Eurozone needs a democratic institution, proportional so it would be representative to the people of the Eurozone. It would need to be able to settle future disputes such as the European debt crisis, balanced in its ruling to all parties negotiating.

    Realistically, such an institution would also need the power to prevent further social and economic crises: it would need the power to set government taxes, expenditures and law, in accordance to the representation of the people of the Eurozone.

    Ultimately, this means that if members of the Eurozone want to keep the shared currency that is the Euro, it needs a democratic union in order to keep the Euro a viable currency.

    In the long term, in order for Eurozone countries to keep the Euro, there must be an United States of Europe.

  8. Just watching The Hurt Locker

    In one scene a yank soldier (in Iraq) has befriended a young local kid to get him DVDs. He says to the kid “don’t try to sell me a crap DVD that shakes all over the place or is out of focus or I’ll cut your head off with a dull knife ….”

    Later “I’m only joking”. To the kid.

    This movie came out 2008.

  9. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 2m2 minutes ago

    This is EXACTLY where the Abbott govt will go too – pressuring companies, attacking encryption via @MsLods

    Yup, it’s what is happening in the UK right now.

  10. It’s a good job there are some ‘lefties’ around for ‘righties’ to argue with, cos this is what happens when ‘righties’ argue with ‘righties’..
    [ A Syrian rebel group has executed 18 alleged members of Islamic State (IS) in a video mimicking the extremist organisation’s own productions. ]

  11. [Windmills seem to be a tory problem everywhere..]

    not a coincidence – the same people (coal industry) are paying them.

    it is mainly an issue in the english-speaking world in countries with fossil fuels and a strong murdoch media presence. the rest of the world has chosen to go with science.

  12. [“People on the right actually accept democracy”]

    But only if the vote goes the “Right” way. This colours the Right’s attitude to bicameralism (great as long as the Right has an upper house majority, otherwise the Upper House should STFU and pass a Right Wing Government’s legislation pronto) and to States Rights (as long as state electors aren’t “absent minded” enough to vote for someone else). In fact, Abbott’s “absent minded” comment rather let the cat out of the bag. He is an authoritarian, at heart, a fascist. He doesn’t trust the voters to deliver the “Right” result.

  13. markjs: I’m old enough to remember The Frost Report (the sequel series to TWTWTW: I’m not quite old enough for that one). I’m told the two shows were broadly similar.

    My recollection is that The Frost Report was more like Mad As Hell than like James/Stewart/Colbert/Oliver/Pickering. It featured sketches as well as send ups of the news. It evolved into At Last the 1948 Show and then Monty Python.

    What I particularly like about James and his acolytes is the rapid-fire juxtaposition of clips and quotes to create a sort of rolling avalanche gag. James actually started doing this in his written TV criticism and then took it to the airwaves. He had a light touch which Stewart et al don’t have: American comedians always feel they have to explain more to set up a gag: I guess they (perhaps rightly) assume that their audiences are a bit slow on the uptake. Pickering has a bit of James’s lightness of touch.

  14. Your holy avatardness @ 1055.

    I’m not offended at all.

    Colour is an aspect of aboriginality. In Australia its unaviodable. But acknowledging that doesn’t automatically exclude other ideas of aboriginality. Connection to country, family and even (or especially?) dreaming are important, sometimes interdependent aspects of it.

    Just cos i’m talking about the role of colour in modern aboriginality doesn’t mean I’m ignorant of all the other factors. Or of the role of IP in indigenous identity, the relationship between it, land management and food distribution. Or of how the native Title act plays off all of that to cause division and strife in a fight for essentially … two fifths of fuck all.


    [And that it is my impression that there has been a subtle shift in the trajectory of the movement, which has less sense of universal solidarity and more factionalism and disputation]

    I think that was the point of the Native Title Act, it was certainly an obvious effect and the 10 point plan made it worse.

  15. [ How the F is this about the Left?

    TBA, we are under your bed, ]

    Oh for doGs sake SK!!! I’m not!

    Under TBA’s is NOT a place that even Scott Morrison would contemplate putting an Asylum Seeker. 🙁

    Yuck. 🙁

  16. TrueBlueAussie@1142

    “Anyone who proposes a plebiscite on SSM is proposing that money be taken from the taxpayers and wasted on a vote on whether to keep an illiberal law that we already know the public opposes by a decisive margin.”

    Love the circular argument.

    Can’t have a democratic vote because you know “everyone” is for it.

    The left are scared of a vote

    No, you are scared of thinking, and probably of anything other than trolling too.

    Quite aside from you putting words in my mouth by attributing the word “everyone” to me when I didn’t use it (which makes you a verballer as well as a supporter of thieves), there is no circularity.

    We know the public supports SSM based on overwhelming evidence from polling. We know from US states and countries that when SSM is this strongly supported in polling then votes on it pass no matter how much muck is slung in scare campaigns against it. They do pass by less than the polls imply – but only slightly.

    You furthermore completely and doubtless deliberately missed the major point about the cost.

    Is there a poster blocking function on this forum still?



    [Athens Bar Association: referendum is unconstitutional

    The Athens Bar Association, the largest professional association in Greece, has said that the referendum is unconstitutional because there is no clear and full information as to what the referendum question actually means.

    Referring to the constitution, they said that “the question of a referendum can not be neither obscure nor allusive”.

    It wrote that members have a “major existential issues for the country’s future”, and urged people to vote “yes”.]

  18. Mr Abbott should be very careful about calling a plebiscite on SSM.

    The problem for him is that such an undertaking would likely bring out into the light from under their rocks some of the really ugly right wing types: the “ditch the witch” brigade and their ilk. He would find himself in rather repellent company on the hustings, and that would only reinforce the damaging perception of him as someone who just likes to stir up trouble. If the country found itself facing a nasty divisive few weeks, Mr Abbott would be blamed.


    [Greece overtakes Italy as first port of call for migrants

    In the first six months of this year, Greece has received more migrants crossing the Mediterranean than Italy, according to a new UN report. Italy had previously been seen the rise in migrant arrivals.

    The number of refugees and migrants entering the western Balkans from Greece has already dramatically increased since the beginning of June, with more than 1,000 people entering every day, as opposed to 200 just a few weeks ago.

    • There has been a major increase in refugees and migrants taking the ‘eastern Mediterranean route’ from Turkey to Greece.]

  20. [“The problem for him is that such an undertaking would likely bring out into the light from under their rocks some of the really ugly right wing types”]

    Too late. They’ve already crawled out from under their rocks and joined the Abbott front bench.

  21. briefly @1176:

    But…but…jerb creyators!

    Also, did you have any luck figuring out the discrepancy between the OECD’s take on Greek taxes and the Greek Treasury’s?

  22. Too stupid for words… Eric Abetz writes:

    [The US Supreme Court majority has set a dangerous precedent for the US by asserting that the American people have, since inception, somehow misunderstood their own constitution.

    As dissenting Justice Antonin Scalia put it: “And to allow the policy question of same-sex marriage to be considered and resolved by a select, patrician, highly unrepresentative panel of nine is to violate a principle even more fundamental than no taxation without representation: no social transformation without representation.”–on-gay-marriage-20150701-gi26gi.html ]

    Yes, that’s right, suddenly the Supreme Court judge discovers that he’s a member of a plutocratic organization and should not be delivering judgements.

    Abetz emphasizes particularly Constitutional ones, because, y’know, Constitutional judgements – like the ones Scalia’s been making for years, and like the one’s Abetz’s own government routinely seeks – imply the people don’t understand their own Constitution.

    This is full strength idiocy from Abetz.

  23. Bushfire Bill @ 1179: Someone should ask Senator Abetz if he has a similar view of the way in which the US Supreme Court put an end to racial segregation in the case of Brown v. Board of Education.

  24. Briefly #1173
    Wait.. let me get this straight…

    The Athens Bar Association ruled the referendum to be unconstitutional because it isn’t clear what the referendum question actually means…and then urged people to vote yes?

    A little bit of inconsistency here?

  25. 1179

    It is even more ridiculous because, in the first paragraph of the section you quote, he effectively claims that the section of the Constitution that this ruling was based on is original. That is not the case, it was a post-Civil War amendment aimed at reducing racist policies towards African-Americans in the South.

  26. [Bushfire Bill @ 1179: Someone should ask Senator Abetz if he has a similar view of the way in which the US Supreme Court put an end to racial segregation in the case of Brown v. Board of Education.]

    Abetz goes on to refer to the anti-SSM movement in France.

    I wonder whether Uncle Otto Abetz – Nazi ambassador to France – wold have thought of the French exercising their right to have an opinion?

    He also trots out the tired old shibboleth that kids need a Mum and a Dad.

    Then caps it off by saying SSM would upend society.

    You can just hear his droning voice saying it, too.

  27. The whole point of having a Constitutional court is to decide on what the Constitution means. End of story.

    Scalia’s snark about 9 plutocrats deciding the fate of nations, and in particular a mere majority of them, should be read in concert with the alacrity with which Scalia appointed George W Bush as President. Now that WAS something that upended society.

  28. [Bushfire Bill @ 1179: Someone should ask Senator Abetz if he has a similar view of the way in which the US Supreme Court put an end to racial segregation in the case of Brown v. Board of Education.]

    According to Abetz the American people didn’t have a clue that segregation was unconstitutional until activist plutocrats told them so. Fancy that!

  29. BB @ 1184: Senator Abetz exemplifies why I think Mr Abbott would be mad to call a plebiscite on SSM. He wouldn’t be able to contain or disguise the sheer ugliness of the No case proponents. In a parliamentary debate, MPs have to be conscious of what their constituents think, and the smart ones will tone down their language. (Senators, of course, are different, as are the Christensens of this world.) In a plebiscite campaign, on the other hand, the loonies will be out in force, letting rip with every disreputable argument they can muster.

  30. [ ]

    Lol! Saw that yesterday. 🙂 Its unattributable as far as sources and doesn’t actually say what block software the F35 was flying with. AF-02 appears to still have early flight software from what i have read elsewhere. Seems to actually relate to some testing done to expand the flight envelope where they found they do have room to relax the currently programmed limits on maneuverability.

  31. [1178

    briefly @1176:

    Also, did you have any luck figuring out the discrepancy between the OECD’s take on Greek taxes and the Greek Treasury’s?]

    I had a busy day today…visitors, clients, books…I will put it on my list tho 🙂

  32. In somewhat good news:

    [Obama, Cuba announce embassy openings

    WASHINGTON — Cuba said Wednesday that new embassies in Havana and Washington, D.C., will re-open July 20.

    The announcement came an hour before President Obama planned to discuss the new embassies in White House.

    While the re-establishment of embassies in the United States and Cuba is a major step toward re-establishing formal relations between the two estranged nations, other items still need to be resolved.]

  33. 1187

    This is a good argument against a plebiscite. However, as we’ve seen here from TBA, the LNP would also see the issue as one they could attempt to use to bash Labor. This would be disgraceful, but that only make sit more likely they may do it.

    Abbott is not only homophobic, he’s Labor-phobic. He could give free rein to all his animosity at the same time.

  34. [ In a plebiscite campaign, on the other hand, the loonies will be out in force, letting rip with every disreputable argument they can muster. ]

    And Abbott will be associated with them? Ok, you trying to convince me a plebiscite is a good idea then?? 🙂

  35. 1192

    A plebiscite would only be useful as a device for attacking the ALP if it failed. If it passed, which I think it is likely to, then it would blow up in the faces of proponents of a plebiscite who oppose marriage equality.

  36. abbott will oppose SSM marriage because his cultural enemies (in his mind) are for it. he is the ultimate reactionary – always defining his position by being against his perceived enemies. I’d find it tiring, but he obviously finds it sustaining. I’d love an interviewer to just keep asking him ‘but why?’ to see he ran out of excuses other than ‘I’m against it because they are for it’ or ‘i’m an intolerant tool’. The argument ‘because I’m for tradition’ is piss-weak. an interviewer could say ‘it is traditional for women to stay home and do housework – do you support that tradition?’; ‘it is traditional for married women to get half pay or sacked – do you support that tradition’, ‘it is traditional for winning footy teams to get really drunk and obnoxious – do you support that tradition’ and when he reverts to the bible, then start asking him about how many slaves and wives it is Ok to have, how many months a man should wait to rape female prisoners after take a village, whether the eats pork or flake, whether you should kill a goat that has been fucked by a shepherd as unclean, and whether he believes that if two men are fighting and the wife of one of the men helps her husband by grabbing the other man’s testicles she should have her hand gut off, etc (all from the ‘no-poofters’ sections of the bible)

  37. Briefly @1189:

    [I had a busy day today…visitors, clients, books…I will put it on my list tho :)]

    Awesome – because now I really -am- curious. XD

  38. Abbotts only chance to win on SSM is if nothing happens. If there is a vote in Parliament he loses. If there is a discussion in the Caucus room he loses. If there is a plebiscite he loses. If nothing happens he can go on pretending that he might in theory, if the wind is blowing in the right direction, do something that might support it. If anything happens he has to be hard line about it or lose, and if he is hard line about it now it means he will lose later.
    In other words a win for marriage equality is inevitable and all that Tony can do is delay that inevitability.

  39. Hillsong: A neoliberal religion for a neoliberal state, the sad future of Australia:

    [Ms Levin was escorted into the arena where she was interviewed by police and served with a banning notice for Sydney Olympic Park before being allowed to leave through the car park.

    “They said I crossed the perimeter, but there was no fence or barrier or anything,” she said.

    The officers were not attached to any specific local area command, but were user-pay officers contracted to patrol the conference site. ]

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