Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A slight move to the Coalition off a low base in this fortnight’s Roy Morgan poll, and Newspoll state breakdowns that confirm a picture of Coalition improvement being driven by New South Wales.

There’s a three-week gap between Newspolls as the new management takes effect, with Galaxy to assume the reins with a survey this weekend. That means the fortnightly release schedules of Morgan and Newspoll are now out of line, and will hopefully remain so. This week’s Morgan result, from 3282 face-to-face and SMS responses over the past two weekends, records a slight shift to the Coalition, but does off a particularly weak result last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 39%, Labor is down by the same amount to 36%, and the Greens are up half a point to 14%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred is down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5, while on previous election preferences the shift is from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47.

Also out this evening is a last hurrah from Newspoll in the shape of its quarterly aggregates of federal voting intention broken by state. GhostWhoVotes relates that these show a 50-50 split in New South Wales, compared with a 54-46 lead to Labor last time and consistent with the story being told of late by BludgerTrack; a Labor lead of 57-43 in Victoria, down from 59-41; a Labor lead of 52-48 in Queensland, compared with 50-50 last time; a 50-50 result in Western Australia, compared with an improbable Labor lead of 54-46 last time; and a 52-48 Labor lead in South Australia, down from 53-47 last time. Hopefully there will be a link to full tables from The Australian reasonably soon, as well as gender breakdowns. (UPDATE: All of that here, with a tip of the hat to Leroy Lynch).

Stay tuned for Essential Research, which as always will be with us later today.

UPDATE (Essential Research): For the first time in two months, Essential Research has budged from its 52-48 perch, with Labor’s lead in the fortnightly rolling aggregate increasing to 53-47. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged with the Coalition on 41%, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 1%, the only movement being a one-point increase for the Greens.

There is also a question on trust in particular media outlets, which as ever finds the Fairfax papers on top, The Australian slightly below, and News Corp tabloids further down still (responses were limited to those living in the papers’ relevant states). There appears to be a general downward trend here over results going back to 2011, most explicitly in the case of the Courier-Mail, which has adopted a highly partisan tone since that time, although The Age is well down over that time for reasons that are less clear to me. Even more entertainingly, the poll inquires on recognition and trust in various journalists, and finds Laurie Oakes, Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones leading on name recognition, but with the former topping the table on trust while the latter two occupy the bottom slots. Jon Faine of ABC Radio in Victoria also performed rather weakly among those who recognised him, for some reason.

There is also a question on funding of schools, for which the clear leader out of four options is having the federal government be “the main funder of all schools”. A question on whether Australian troops should fight Islamic State in Iraq records an even balance of support, with 41% in favour and 43% opposed, which is perhaps a little more hawkish than I would have guessed, and probably tells you something about reaction to the words “Islamic State”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,200 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. ]”Plebiscites are not binding. You are hoping Abbott will find a way to have a Royal Commission, or start up a committee, or get a green paper written.”]

    No Politician who is not completely suicidal would ignore the outcome of a Plebiscite.

    The problem for the left is they are shit scared of democracy and the will of the people.

    Being from the right I’m willing to accept the outcome of a democratic vote.

    If the Libs vote down the Gay Marriage Bill in August, will the lefties accept it?

  2. [I heard uttering a blessing at the swearing-in of the new Border Sturmwehr today…”God bless this and God bless that…” I wanted to vomit.]

    Yech. I haven’t seen the news yet, so thanks for the warning!

  3. [1097

    Yes, it was a concept first proposed by the French and resisted by the Germans. I think they all regret it now.

  4. [teve777
    Posted Wednesday, July 1, 2015 at 7:36 pm | PERMALINK
    If the Western sky is clear where you are and you have a good view to the West, check out Venus and Jupiter. Two bright white jewels.

    Saw them the other night. Venus was so bright it almost looked like the landing lights of an aeroplane.

  5. 1101

    This is just an attempt at delay and deflection. It has nothing to do with democracy and everything to do with the politics of hate, fear and division…the trademark LNP politics of cultural destruction.

  6. victoria

    [what is his excuse going to be now]
    That , yes it is important (insert more weasel words)but the budget emergency ,Death Cult members under our beds or Labor being ahead in the polls is far more urgent . Do the time is not now.

  7. Answer my question.

    If the Libs reject the Gay Marriage Bill in August, will the left accept that outcome?

    How many times do you want to send it to Parliament before you accept the outcome?

    Only solution to this deadlock is a Plebiscite

  8. TBA

    If the fibs reject it n August. They can be voted out at next election and then it will definitely get enough votes

  9. confessions

    It was “May god bless you” followed by same blessing for “the work you do” and “the nation you protect” . My barfometer exploded 😆

  10. The LNP stand against equality in relation to marriage rights as in nearly everything else. The LNP prefer the culture of exclusion, revenge and suppression to that of harmony, unity and shared happiness.

    They are really the voice of spite and malice and are unworthy of power…completely unworthy.

  11. [No Politician who is not completely suicidal would ignore the outcome of a Plebiscite.

    The problem for the left is they are shit scared of democracy and the will of the people.]

    It’s not democracy, you idiot. We HAVE a democracy. It says that the parliament puts up a bill, and has a vote on it. It’s what we vote for every three years: parliamentarians to vote on bills put to them.

    It doesn’t need a plebiscite or anything else. A simple vote will do.

    A plebiscite is just another way of delaying the absolute inevitable. Abbott will try to find a way to put it off, defer it to the next election, run committees, have Royal Commissions and so on. He’ll say he wants to see how SSM has gone overseas. That could take years.

    We do not need a popular vote. Marriage is a law like any others. It can be changed overnight with a show of hands.

    That is how democracy works in Australia.

  12. No one is scared of the result. IT will be overwhelming. But there’s no need to have a plebiscite to establish that.

  13. TBA
    Abbott himself (currently) seems to think he can’t allow a vote. If he allows a vote and it’s rejected, it will be rejected mainly on the Coalition’s side. That means he can’t keep promising that it will be considered at some unspecified point in the future. That means it will be an issue at the next election.

    Labor will be trying to frame any delay in a free vote as a backdown from his commitment, as him being shifty and untrustworthy, as his words offered in bad faith, and as equivalent to a no vote from the Coalition.

  14. [“We do not need a popular vote. Marriage is a law like any others. It can be changed overnight with a show of hands.

    That is how democracy works in Australia.”]

    And if it is voted down in August you will accept the outcome right?

    The left is full of crap. You only accept the outcome of a Parliamentary vote if it goes YOUR way.

  15. briefly

    Also remember reading grave worries about the unification of the DDR and Western Germany. Apparently it was going to cost well over a trillion US dollars for Western Germany to get the East up to speed. Back in the days when a trillion dollars was worth something 😀

    The reunification costs may have played a part in the German dealings………… or not.

  16. I think there are only two options here for what’s going through Coalition heads.

    Abbott has had the Coalition’s numbers checked and thinks the legislation will pass.


    He wants it left unresolved.

    Otherwise we would have already had a vote.

  17. Sorry if already posted today, Richard Ackland on Joes loss ..

    Hockey’s and Fairfax’s legal costs would be of the order approaching $1m each. Sydney media lawyer Graham Hryce points out that the court has a discretion to award costs to a losing party where that party has succeeded on key issues.

    Three-quarters of Hockey’s case failed and if there was a differential costs order in favour of those parts that Fairfax successfully defended, Hockey can say goodbye to his $200,000. It will be gobbled up in costs, plus more.

  18. What a joke TBA idiot is.

    He calls for a plebiscite and puts up 3 links to show there’s a push on for a plebiscite ……. Reith, George Christensen, and Bolt.

    What a crapartist TBA is.

  19. Charlie Pickering v good again tonight. No Kitty Flanagan. Maybe someone at the ABC feels the same way I do.

    Or, maybe she too has been cautioned for misconduct.

    BTW, Pickering made fun of the Q&A stuff last week, but there was zilch on the subject this week. Interesting.

  20. [And if it is voted down in August you will accept the outcome right?]

    The outcome of a vote HAS to be accepted, but not for all time.

    If votes weren’t put before the parliament on a repeat basis then we wouldn’t have Double Dissolutions.

    The whole idea of voting is to accept the outcome and then keep trying.

    There is nothing shameful, “full of crap” or petulant about that. If this had not been the case the William Wilberforce would have given up trying to abolish slavery in 1787. Abbott himself keeps on putting bills before the Parliament. The Carbon Tax abolition bill was a case in point.

    Your mind’s so full of shit, TBI, you can’t even see when you’re up your own arse.

  21. vic @ 1124
    He obviously doesn’t want it resolved in the positive.

    As for not wanting it resolved in the negative – a result that mainly the Coalition would be held respsonsible for – that’s so he can keep offering hope to both sides. Keep it from becoming an election issue, even if not a first order issue.

  22. The assumption underlying 1129 is, of course, that a majority of people support it.

    If they don’t, Abbott is just being stupid.

  23. If we have a plebiscite, we’d be bucking the trend as the only Westminster government not to put it to a parliamentary vote. The Irish is the only exception as the definition of marriage is set in their constitution.

    Of course, we’ve only brought up this point the last 3 or 4 times this has been raised here.

  24. Quite clearly Abbott sees SSM as a “wedge” issue, like borders and jihadists.

    However, unlike the latter two, he will fail if he uses SSM to try and frighten the daylights out of the population. The Liberals are clearly split on SSM (as evidenced by two MPs co-sponsoring a SSM bill) so he cannot expect a chorus line of support for his stance. Without rock solid support from all his MPs, how is he going to convince the population that SSM will destroy Australia as we know it?

  25. Of course, if this needs to be put to the people, then there are a few other things I want a plebiscite for:

    TPP trade agrement
    NBN: FTTH or FTTN?
    Asylum seeker issues
    The Budget
    Data retention legislation

  26. Anyone who proposes a plebiscite on SSM is proposing that money be taken from the taxpayers and wasted on a vote on whether to keep an illiberal law that we already know the public opposes by a decisive margin.

    Any person who is opposed to SSM who proposes a plebiscite is proposing that the State steal from its citizens by force of law to fund their own moral prejudices. Any such person who criticises the Left for any act of government spending ever is a hypocrite of the very worst possible order.

  27. One perspective

    [Mr Denmore
    Mr Denmore – ‏@MrDenmore
    Abbott opposes a SSM vote not because of morality but because it would lift the national mood from the fear he’s worked so hard to create
    3:08 AM – 1 Jul 2015

  28. I just added the following comment on the Daily Telecrap in response to a comment on an earlier comment by me about a beat-up re Bill Shorten’s alleged ‘blunder’. Let’s see if they publish it.

    [Bring on the election and rid us of this fool? If you mean PM Abbott I agree 100%. Mendacious and malevolent without the saving grace of being passably competent. He can’t talk about his plans for Australia’s future (a.k.a the 2014 Budget). They are ballot box poison. So he needs a giant distraction – death cultists ard coming to get us. Yeah whatever. Meanwhile, what about your plans for jobs, health, education, pensions, jobs, jobs, universities, welfare for those who slip through the net. And what about the GST?]

  29. citizen

    [……..he will fail if he uses SSM to try and frighten the daylights out of the population]
    Not for his core ‘2GB demographic’

  30. victoria:

    It would also make Abbott and so many of his colleagues look so woefully out of touch not just with the country, but with the times.

  31. [The problem for the left…
    will the lefties accept it…
    will the left accept that outcome…
    The left is full of crap….]

    How the F is this about the Left?

    TBA, we are under your bed, behind every corner…. close your eyes and you will see us.


  32. TBA

    [If the Libs vote down the Gay Marriage Bill in August, will the lefties accept it?]

    When Labor legislated for a price on carbon, did the Righties accept it?

    In a democracy, you’re allowed to keep agitating for change until it happens.

  33. [“Anyone who proposes a plebiscite on SSM is proposing that money be taken from the taxpayers and wasted on a vote on whether to keep an illiberal law that we already know the public opposes by a decisive margin.”]

    Love the circular argument.

    Can’t have a democratic vote because you know “everyone” is for it.

    The left are scared of a vote

  34. zoomster @1141:

    [In a democracy, you’re allowed to keep agitating for change until it happens.]

    Only if you’re to the right of Attila the Hen.

  35. [“How the F is this about the Left?”]

    Because Champ… the only one not accepting democracy right now is the left.

    They don’t accept the will of the house of representatives. They don’t want a Plebiscite vote will of the people. They don’t want any opinion that doesn’t line up with their own.

    That’s why I blame the left.

    People on the right actually accept democracy

  36. TrueBlueTroll:

    Why should there be a plebiscite on every contentious issue out there? The Parliament has a clear, Constitutional authority to be the arbiter of what rules marriage operates by – that is its remit.

    If we drag Australians to the polls over SSM, why not over the Budget? The IR laws? Education changes?

    We have a Parliament to govern – let it do so within its Constitutional remit, even though I think we’d win a plebiscite in a walk.

  37. Whether it’s good strategy/tactics or not, Abbott’s method of choice is to first flatter everyone and later make excuses and/or beg forgiveness when his actions prove his inconsistency. No doubt he would prefer to keep things in the flattering phase.

  38. Whatever Parliament votes in becomes law. It’s not a matter of whether we ‘accept it’. We don’t like the results we vote for better representatives. I’m looking forward to Repeal Abbott Day.

  39. Buddy, if blaming the left helps you sleep then go for it.

    Personally, I thought it was about same sex marriage. Pretty sure the people suffering from that not being law, and working tirelessly for decades to make it law are the LGBT community and those closely associated with them.

    I know several LGBT on the right. They would really prefer it not to go to a plebiscite.

    But maybe they arent your definition of “right”. Pal.

  40. [poroti
    Posted Wednesday, July 1, 2015 at 9:32 pm | PERMALINK

    ……..he will fail if he uses SSM to try and frighten the daylights out of the population

    Not for his core ’2GB demographic’]

    I might be wrong but I thought Jones (for his own personal reasons) indicated he would not actively oppose SSM.

  41. The sooner the Eurozone is dismantled, the sooner the people of those countries can increase their wellbeing. It is foolish to hope for a continuation of the Eurozone.

    People need to separate the European project from the common currency. The first is about increasing peace and cooperation between nations. The second is murdering democratic accountability and human wellbeing. The can support the first without supporting the second.

    Those ten thousand misguided souls who turned up in Athens today to actually protest IN FAVOUR of austerity policies are conflating membership of the currency union with success as a nation.

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