Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A slight move to the Coalition off a low base in this fortnight’s Roy Morgan poll, and Newspoll state breakdowns that confirm a picture of Coalition improvement being driven by New South Wales.

There’s a three-week gap between Newspolls as the new management takes effect, with Galaxy to assume the reins with a survey this weekend. That means the fortnightly release schedules of Morgan and Newspoll are now out of line, and will hopefully remain so. This week’s Morgan result, from 3282 face-to-face and SMS responses over the past two weekends, records a slight shift to the Coalition, but does off a particularly weak result last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 39%, Labor is down by the same amount to 36%, and the Greens are up half a point to 14%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred is down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5, while on previous election preferences the shift is from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47.

Also out this evening is a last hurrah from Newspoll in the shape of its quarterly aggregates of federal voting intention broken by state. GhostWhoVotes relates that these show a 50-50 split in New South Wales, compared with a 54-46 lead to Labor last time and consistent with the story being told of late by BludgerTrack; a Labor lead of 57-43 in Victoria, down from 59-41; a Labor lead of 52-48 in Queensland, compared with 50-50 last time; a 50-50 result in Western Australia, compared with an improbable Labor lead of 54-46 last time; and a 52-48 Labor lead in South Australia, down from 53-47 last time. Hopefully there will be a link to full tables from The Australian reasonably soon, as well as gender breakdowns. (UPDATE: All of that here, with a tip of the hat to Leroy Lynch).

Stay tuned for Essential Research, which as always will be with us later today.

UPDATE (Essential Research): For the first time in two months, Essential Research has budged from its 52-48 perch, with Labor’s lead in the fortnightly rolling aggregate increasing to 53-47. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged with the Coalition on 41%, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 1%, the only movement being a one-point increase for the Greens.

There is also a question on trust in particular media outlets, which as ever finds the Fairfax papers on top, The Australian slightly below, and News Corp tabloids further down still (responses were limited to those living in the papers’ relevant states). There appears to be a general downward trend here over results going back to 2011, most explicitly in the case of the Courier-Mail, which has adopted a highly partisan tone since that time, although The Age is well down over that time for reasons that are less clear to me. Even more entertainingly, the poll inquires on recognition and trust in various journalists, and finds Laurie Oakes, Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones leading on name recognition, but with the former topping the table on trust while the latter two occupy the bottom slots. Jon Faine of ABC Radio in Victoria also performed rather weakly among those who recognised him, for some reason.

There is also a question on funding of schools, for which the clear leader out of four options is having the federal government be “the main funder of all schools”. A question on whether Australian troops should fight Islamic State in Iraq records an even balance of support, with 41% in favour and 43% opposed, which is perhaps a little more hawkish than I would have guessed, and probably tells you something about reaction to the words “Islamic State”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,200 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Re BB @1038: what we say about anything here probably won’t influence it one little bit but we might as well say it.

    As to Greece, the bankers who lent vast sums when they must have known Greece was in a parlous state deserve what they are about to get, except that the middle men (middle persons?) probably get to keep their bonuses a d commissions. The Greek debt, from what I have seen, can never be repaid. Everone has t take a haircut, Greece have had theirs for several years. As you say, Greece will do what Greece will do.

  2. Steve 777
    As Mrs BK and I returned home this evening she was convinced there was a helicopter heading our way from the south. She wouldn’t have a bar of my Venus/Jupiter explanation.

  4. [Good god, for once I agree with you!]

    If I knew who you were RaaRaa, I say “thanks”. But since I don’t, I won’t.

  5. Jules@1035: I’m not sure if I’ve offended you or (given that you said earlier you weren’t Aboriginal) perhaps you are joking (or at least bring sarcastic). If the former, I’m sorry.

    I’m talking about the Aboriginal movement I supported and went on many demos/marches in Sydney back in the 1970s. Back then, people like Faith B and Bobbie S mixed in with people from all over. It was long before Native Title and the main talk back then was land rights: sometimes in terms of the land of specific peoples but certainly not always (eg, the Block at Redfern was given to a relatively general group of Aboriginal people).

    All I was saying was that your sense of “belonging” reminded me of what some Aboriginal people at the time said to me (who did not belong, but whose support was sometimes, but by no means always, welcomed). And that it is my impression that there has been a subtle shift in the trajectory of the movement, which has less sense of universal solidarity and more factionalism and disputation

  6. briefly

    Their armies generally are but hey that’s cool. “We” helped arm the like of El Nusra , Al Qaeda chappies until they fell out , but hey ho they were fighting Assad. “We” are now also pretty cool about them thar “eeeevil Iranians” having high ranking Generals and Al Quds armed forces running around in Iraq directing traffic and shooting up stuff.

  7. Steve777

    [Everyone has to take a haircut]

    Not everyone. The bailout (first one ?) consisted largely of a truckload of EU cash going in the front door and immediately loaded onto a truck at the back door to repay the northern banks.

  8. The moon rising this evening while I was headed home was spectacular. Unfortunately it’s cloudy to the west, so no Venus – Jupiter sightings.

  9. [1056
    poroti]

    I know. The “axis of evil” now extends from Washington to Tel Aviv to Tehran and Canberra. Very bizarre.

  10. jules@1035

    jules@1004: your understanding of Aboriginality is the one people of my age grew up with, a concept based largely on colour.


    Thanks for telling me that. I always find non aboriginal people so much more authoritative on these issues.

    I.. I’m not an indigenous person but I think you’ve just gone through the racial equivalent of mansplaining.. Whitesplaining?

  11. Abbotth hates gays, maybe not lesbians cause he probably thinks they’re a bit kinky. Either way he’ll never allow a conscious vote.

  12. [If the Western sky is clear where you are and you have a good view to the West, check out Venus and Jupiter. Two bright white jewels.]

    I just saw that. Went outside to take in the night sky.

    Truly stunning – a beautiful night here. Its so bright I can clearly see colours (on flowers and stuff) in the moonlight. That doesn’t happen every full moon. I’m tossing up whether to go outside or respond to the comment @ 1019.

  13. I like this part of John Quiggin’s analysis on The Drum. European governments and the troika have drastically underestimated the impact of a Greek exit from the Eurozone.

    What about the European institutions? Their hard line reflects a calculation that the broader European financial system can survive the repudiation of Greek debt. But this prudential calculation does not take any account of politics.

    If Greece rejects the Troika and does not suffer economic collapse, the governments (in Ireland, Spain and Portugal for example) that have gone along with demands for austerity will be discredited. The most directly vulnerable is the Spanish government, which has already lost ground to the anti-austerity movement Podemos, and faces a general election in December.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-01/quiggin-could-greek-resistance-bring-down-the-eu/6585508

  15. [The moon rising this evening while I was headed home was spectacular.]

    We all stopped at soccer training tonight to watch the moon, quite an eyeful.

  16. Matt@1041

    poroti @1017:

    Aussie birds are smart. Have you come across these before ?

    Chestnut-crowned babbler: Australian bird becomes first known non-human species to communicate using language

    “This is the first time that the capacity to generate new meaning from rearranging meaningless elements has been shown to exist outside of humans,” said Simon Townsend of the University of Zurich


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjE0Kdfos4Y

    That is all XD

    For some reason, that reminds me of this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dn0Cn7CBezU

  17. RaaRaa@1060: oh well, I guess I invited it. I have a habit of sailing pretty close to the wind on this and many other subjects. I’d rather have this sort of debate on PB that just join in the usual hours of furious agreement about how terrible Abbott and the Coalition Government are. Not they I disagree with fthe overall negative appraisal (and, indeed, there’s little to be said for any other appraisal as I can hardly think of anything they’ve done that I agree with. Oh, all right, they got rid of the auto industry subsidies: that was good. But that’s just about it I reckon.)

  19. sceptic
    [Posted Wednesday, July 1, 2015 at 6:46 pm | PERMALINK
    Victoria
    Found this in Guardian..
    East Timor drops Australia spying case at UN’s international court of justice

    But it only applies to the ASIO document seizure…

    East Timor has accused Australia of spying to gain a commercial advantage during 2004 negotiations over the Timor Sea gas treaty, which covers a vast gas field between the two nations worth billions of dollars.

    Australia said last week it was disappointed by Dili’s plan to continue with litigation and vowed to “strongly defend” its case.

    I bet they’re disssapointed that Howard’s shenanigans likely be exposed in the main litigation.]

    Thanks for that.

  20. 1063
    Nicholas

    Stagnation in the Euro-zone is widespread, ranging from Portugal and Spain, to Italy, Slovenia, Slovakia and Latvia as well as Greece.

    I’m not sure sure it’s something we should “like”. The consequences of monetary instability in the EU would be very grave for everyone.

  21. briefly

    As I have said before, I am Sergeant Shultz when it comes to economics. But one thing I did understand , when explained, was the vital importance of the Greek economy growing to be able to meet the bailout repayments . That and the certainty the conditions imposed = recession.

  22. [Abbotth hates gays, maybe not lesbians cause he probably thinks they’re a bit kinky. Either way he’ll never allow a conscious vote.]

    For the life of me, I can’t believe anyone could possibly have thought otherwise.

    First there was talk of a party room vote. The newspapers naively wrote it up as a light on the horizon.

    Then Bill Shorten introduced his bill, almost universally condemned as “politicising” the issue, by the same numpty scribblers who believed Abbott was weakening on SSM. These scribblers, mind you, are the absolute first people to have journalistic orgasms over the latest Abbott wedge. They live off politics, they wallow in it, and they shit politics. But a politician being political? Shame on Bill!

    Abbott picked up on this and called for a cross party bill, anything but Bill’s bill.

    Warren Entsch, poor deluded fool he is, with a gay son,took Abbott abillt his word and behind the scenes organized a process whereby Bill’s bill sunk without trace and Abbott’s ego would be stroked by the Libs taking ownership of it. Political? Perish the thought!

    Meanwhile, the Yanks found that their Constitution had always allowed gay marriage (if only gays in Lincoln’s time had just asked the right question!) and Wazza thought he was on a roll.

    Every developed country in the world had changed their rules, or discovered old rules no-one had noticed, to say that SSM was OK by them.

    SO here was his chance. He’d gotten Labor almost completely out of the picture. “Embattled” Bill Shortens brilliant masterstroke after Ireland was forgotten or pooh-poohed, and all we needed Tony to do was reiterate exactly what those with The Savvy, our esteemed political hacks, had said he would do.

    Except he hasn’t. And he never will.

  23. [We all stopped at soccer training tonight to watch the moon, quite an eyeful.]

    People had pulled over to take photos. Unfortunately I had a truck behind me otherwise I’d have done the same.

  24. Anyway, almost time for Charlie Pickering’s show which, in spite of being completely derivative of Stewart, Colbert, Oliver et al (not to mention the granddaddy of this style of TV, Clive James), is really, really funny.

    Except for Kitty Flanagan. Adored her in Utopia, but she has died each week on this show so far.

  25. I gather the ‘silent majority’, over the years, have been opposed to slavery, the Plimsol Line, the change to decimal currency, divorce, the earth being round rather than flat and having the voting age at 18.

    I gather they were against seat belts and the thought that smoking was dangerous to health.

    In fact, the ‘silent majority’ have been opposed to most things which speak of social progress.

    That they are wrong nearly all the time, does not seem to change their thick skins or thick brains.

  28. Keys dad was in the international brigade? Blimey.

    Was he an anarchist, liberal, communist, socialist or a subgroup of one or some combination or permeatation of the lolly mixed bag?

    In the end the bell tolled for them all.

  29. BB
    [For the life of me, I can’t believe anyone could possibly have thought otherwise.]
    He did his usual ambiguous nice noises thing, deliberately leaving open the interpretation that it was an offer of a free vote for “owning the bill”. That was the whole point of course, if it couldn’t be taken that way then it wouldn’t serve to stall anything.

    Whether or not we believe him, it should be (or should have been) played up as a promise, with a firm condition and date of delivery.

  31. [1071
    poroti

    briefly

    As I have said before, I am Sergeant Shultz when it comes to economics. But one thing I did understand , when explained, was the vital importance of the Greek economy growing to be able to meet the bailout repayments . That and the certainty the conditions imposed = recession.]

    Yes, the contradictions have always been obvious. They’re in a totally invidious position. One thing is for sure, the inflow of foreign capital and outflow of domestic savings have been very destructive for Greece, going back as far as their emergence from Ottoman rule.

    Anyway, now they’re broke, their savings denuded, their industries gutted, their credibility shot and their cohesion under great stress. They need to think in terms of their national self-determination…and yet such thinking will create new problems for their neighbours. It’s such an incredible stuff up. I think a vain Franco-German Romanticism is to blame!

  32. TrueBlueIdiot asks for a plebiscite.

    We don’t need a plebiscite, Idiot.

    We just need a vote in the parliament, just like any other law.

    You know nothing about the law and nothing about how our democracy works.

    You’re probably hoping that Abbott can turn around an overwhelming public opinion in favour of gay marriage into another Republic referendum, which split the vote.

    He won’t TBI. He’s hated. The ones who like him just don’t realise it yet.

  33. There is serious talk about a plebiscite being held on Gay Marriage now.

    Once again commonsense takes precedence to leftwing activism

  34. [He did his usual ambiguous nice noises thing, deliberately leaving open the interpretation that it was an offer of a free vote for “owning the bill”.]

    Entsch took him seriously. That was Entsch’s first mistake.

    Abbott will have to be bypassed for SSM to become law. He’ll put his balls on the line over it. I hope he loses them.

  36. [There is serious talk about a plebiscite being held on Gay Marriage now.]

    No-one’s talking about it except you and your ilk, you idiot.

  37. [“We don’t need a plebiscite, Idiot.”]

    Another hater of democracy.

    [“We just need a vote in the parliament, just like any other law.”]

    And if they vote NO, will you shut up?

  39. [So is Abbott going to allow for a conscience vote or not?]

    I doubt it. Unless it becomes yet another of his convictions conveniently cast aside when it suits him.

  40. [1076
    TrueBlueAussie

    Plebiscite NOW please.

    Lets not let this debate get hijack by a handful of noisy activists.]

    You’d do anything to obstruct the majority.

  41. With the new cross party bill, we should now expect Abbott to live up to his commitment, and if he doesn’t (and tries to say people heard what they wanted to hear) ask (rhetorically) if he was being deliberately deceptive with all that stuff about parliament “owning” the legislation said in bad faith.

  42. So lets say Abbott allows a conscience vote.

    Then a majority of Lib MP’s vote No.

    Will the left ACCEPT the vote? Will you? Or will you whinge for another vote?

    This is why we need a Plebiscite. It puts to rest the debate once or for all.. whatever the outcome.

  43. BB @ 1084
    I don’t think it’s a mistake to take him seriously, as long as doing so can convince everyone to take him seriously and see it as a real commitment.

  44. There is no question that Gay Marriage will become law in Australia this year.

    The only question is whether Abbott is buried in a pine box or just buried and cremated.

  45. Fess

    Abbott said he wanted the parliament to own it. Now that a cross party bill has been signed offf on, what is his excuse going to be now

  46. Doing so leaves Abbott in bind. If he doesn’t follow through with people’s expectations, how does he explain his weasel words without looking deceptive and shifty?

  47. briefly

    Waaaay back when the Euro was being considered I remember reading an article about the Germans’ attitude. Their memory of the period of hyper inflation had resulted in a default position of maintaining a strong mark ……at any cost and no matter what.

    They needed to agree to the Euro for it to happen and needed to be assured that giving up a strong Mark was to adopt a strong currency………… over which they had firm control. That the Euro went ahead suggests the ‘Chermans’ got what they wanted.

  48. [This is why we need a Plebiscite. It puts to rest the debate once or for all.. whatever the outcome.]

    The vote won’t fail. Australia would be the laughing stock of the world if it did.

    Plebiscites are not binding. You are hoping Abbott will find a way to have a Royal Commission, or start up a committee, or get a green paper written.

    Face it. Abbott has lost this. The votes are there. The world moves on, with him or without him (preferably without).

  49. [1089
    confessions

    So is Abbott going to allow for a conscience vote or not?

    I doubt it. Unless it becomes yet another of his convictions conveniently cast aside when it suits him.]

    Abbott could make substantial gains in approval if he were to support a vote. Bit I guess he will oppose it just the same.

    I heard uttering a blessing at the swearing-in of the new Border Sturmwehr today…”God bless this and God bless that…” I wanted to vomit.

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