BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight shift to the Coalition, without offering too much to support the favoured media narrative of the past few weeks.

The latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a modest move to the Coalition on the back of slightly stronger results this week from ReachTEL and Roy Morgan, reversing a movement in Labor’s favour last week. It’s also worth noting that the Greens primary vote is up further on what was already a historic high. The quarterly aggregate from Newspoll is among the newly added state-level data, together with unpublished breakdowns from ReachTEL and Essential Research and published ones from Roy Morgan, the combined effect of which is to add one seat to the Coalition tally in each of Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania. The only new leadership result this week was the preferred prime minister reading from ReachTEL, which BludgerTrack doesn’t use because its exclusion of an uncommitted result means it isn’t comparable with other pollsters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. TPOF @ 1795

    I agree about the two things being necessary. The only thing I would add is that Syriza is probably not the government that can oversee this – too much baggage to allow them to work with the creditors. Let their legacy be that they forced the Grexit. Then they should step aside for someone else to do the rebuilding – it is at least as much a job of social engineering as it is economic refinancing.

  5. [1803
    William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, July 5, 2015 at 6:35 pm | PERMALINK
    Cor blimey! Ipsos!]

    Is that a Gadzooks or a Wow?

  8. Migrants are still going to UK even after they tightened up ‘national security laws’, lol.

    Stupid politicians.

  10. There are now calls for ‘Freedom Boy’ Tim Wilson to be sacked given his outrageous expense claims.

    Hey Timmy… It’s nice not having to work much really is it when you are sucking off the taxpayers teat.

    A long way from the IPA isn’t it…or maybe not…

    So tell us about “your partner” … Tim boy.. Does he/she really deserve taxpayer support on ‘travel claims’

    What would Des Moore think Timmy?

  13. I don’t have any understanding of the situation with Greece. I read the various comments here, and I am grateful for the information.

    The only conclusion I have come to is, for whatever reason is valid, Greece is forked.

    Can Australia buy a couple of Greek Islands.

  14. [The dip has not translated into a drop in support for Labor, which has retained its six percentage point lead over the Coalition and, as in the June poll, leads 53 per cent to 47 per cent in the two-party preferred vote.]

  17. [TPOF is correct.

    I’m a bridge burner from way back and the post is a (too subtle for some) attack on the media.]

    Ha, good on you for coming in and clearing that Jason, but yep far far too subtle for me sorry.

    Quite liked the Harbour Bridge piece. Please don’t tell me that was a piss take too.

  18. [“Tony Abbott has really bounced back since his leadership scare, it seems like Australians believed he has galvanised support in that area and there has been a 30 point turn around since we asked the same question in February,” he said.

    “But from a macro perspective, he is still an unpopular leader and he has some of the lowest ever ratings for being a strong leader and having a firm grasp of foreign policy.”]

    But do we really believe he has a firm grasp of foreign policy. I’d say he has a firm grasp of something else…

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-and-tony-abbott-hit-by-popularity-nosedive-fairfaxipsos-poll-20150705-gi5ga4.html

  20. My take on the Greens is some Labor people switching as keeping child abuse secret is a step too far for many.

    Its a guess though

  21. guytaur

    With Abbott so unpopular and Shorten about to face the Commission, people would feel quite safe in going to de Natali, who is a doctor, nothing like those dreadful tree-huggers, Bob and Christine.

  22. @GhostWhoVotes: #Ipsos Poll Abbott: Approve 36 (-4) Disapprove 59 (+5) #auspol

    The MSM can bleat about Shorten as much as they want , but then boat anchor is Abbott

  23. A good poll result for DiNatale.

    Can you just imagine the huge lead the ALP would have with a genuine leader… ?

  29. 1820

    I would extend that to a raft of issues the ALP has shirked opposition on.

    At least the ALP will get their preferences back

  30. Yep, still very comfortable with thhe ALP’s & Shorten’s position. There is jo movement at the station & the Government will be hoping in vain for the TURC to give them some assistance. The people’s hearts have definitely hardened against Abbott.

  32. It’s obvious from the Ipsos poll that Abbott didn’t have enough decorations on his George W Bush flying suit.

  33. PO

    A genuine ALP leader would see off dozens of sitting hard R/W antisocial mp’s, which would be a good thing.

    Instead many of them will remain.

  35. Bill Shorten has extended his lead as PPM over Abbott. TPP is still 53-47 in the favour of labor..

    Shorten leads Abbott in 6 out of 11 categories re attributes and is very close in best to handle the economy and foreign policy which are the two areas Abbott is pushing hard.

    Yea, Shorten is having a shocker.

  36. So … what will Abbott try next? Could he start a war somewhere? Stage a terrorist attack on parliament house? Crash the economy?

    Perhaps all three?

  37. Doyley

    [ Yea, Shorten is having a shocker. ]

    Indeed. I bet Abbott wishes he was doing as badly as Shorten!

  43. Argghhhh! I posted 1796 from my mobile phone.

    I guess this explains why while the sentence I believed I wrote was:

    “Ideally ALP and Greens would take a unified position to the next election.”

    BUT, it displayed on the blog as “Ideally LNP and Greens would take a unified position to the next election”.

    Surely even auto-correct will not change ALP –> LNP! And no, it was not Freudian slip.

  44. D and M

    [Surely even auto-correct will not change ALP –> LNP! And no, it was not Freudian slip.]

    Haha.

    I notice on the “news” the little ALP clerk wore a blue tie to his meeting at Admiralty House with the LNP clown.

    Even Shorten knows he will get a better superannuation by wearing a blue tie.

    Auto-correct knows their is only one letter difference between the ALP and LNP.

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