BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight shift to the Coalition, without offering too much to support the favoured media narrative of the past few weeks.

The latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a modest move to the Coalition on the back of slightly stronger results this week from ReachTEL and Roy Morgan, reversing a movement in Labor’s favour last week. It’s also worth noting that the Greens primary vote is up further on what was already a historic high. The quarterly aggregate from Newspoll is among the newly added state-level data, together with unpublished breakdowns from ReachTEL and Essential Research and published ones from Roy Morgan, the combined effect of which is to add one seat to the Coalition tally in each of Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania. The only new leadership result this week was the preferred prime minister reading from ReachTEL, which BludgerTrack doesn’t use because its exclusion of an uncommitted result means it isn’t comparable with other pollsters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  2. What would be the point of pissing off the numerous blended families by pulling the biological parent card?

  3. poroti

    I was on a flight to Christchurch when new quarantine arrangements were announced mid-flight.

    If we had dirt on our footwear we had to declare it.

    A loud mouth a couple of rows back announced that there was no way he was going to effin declare dirty boots. Effin kiwis!

    The airline staff duly gave the quarantine blokes the wink and the smartarse was booked.

    The last time I saw him he looked lonely and forlorn as the rest of us took off while he waited in his socks.

  5. briefly

    Excellent statistics, as with ALL greek statistics.

    Did they count the numbers on the roster, the numbers paid, or the ones that actually turned up?

  6. BW

    [ Did they count the numbers on the roster, the numbers paid, or the ones that actually turned up? ]

    They counted the ones who paid tax.

  9. briefly

    Re schooling a doco I watched earlier gave me a good 😀 . They compared how many private schools there were in places like England compared to Germany. The reporter mentioned that there hardly any private schools in Germany . Adding that the expensive ‘elite’ ones were largely to cater for the offspring of the wealthy . Specifically the not so bright ones.

  10. This is another side to gender equality.

    [In order to provide equal healthcare to LGBTIQA communities, it is crucial that doctors complement their medical practice with a sociological understanding of sex, gender and sexuality, one which reflects the lived experiences of LGBTIAQ people. For example, anatomy is still taught in terms of “female” and “male” sexes, with little room for any variation. This implies that intersex bodies and physiology needs to be corrected to fit these categories.

    Similarly, there is widespread systematic erasure of trans and gender diverse identities. In hospital systems everything from blood tests to intake forms fail to recognise the experiences of trans people. Even in relatively progressive fields such as sexual health, the breadth of human sexuality is approached from a biological perspective.

    The dangerous implication of all this being that anything that does not fit within this medical discourse is abnormal, risky and needs to be corrected. Our current bio-medical model underpinning medical education leaves our health professionals widely unequipped to understand the healthcare needs of LGBTIQA people

    Equality cannot happen without access to healthcare. Doctors should have the skills to interact with all LGBTIAQ individuals in a respectful, inclusive manner and making clinical settings welcoming spaces. This does not necessarily mean being an expert in the subtleties of gender identity. However, the simple act of widening our understanding of gender, sexual orientation and intersex status will go a long way. If there is to be equality in all aspects of healthcare, every doctor -from your radiologist to your surgeon to your GP- must treat LGBTIQA individuals with respect and know something about their lived experiences.]

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/croakey/2015/07/02/what-does-marriage-equality-mean-for-the-australian-health-system/

  11. [Police Minister Liza Harvey, the most prominent female member of the Barnett Government, believes many women are being held back at work by Perth’s “boys’ club” corporate culture and employers’ unconscious bias against them.

    Mrs Harvey, who is also Minister for Women’s Interests, says she wants to change that culture by the time her 15-year-old daughter Elizabeth and her peers enter the workforce.

    Mrs Harvey did not think quotas forcing organisations to have a certain number of women on boards was the remedy for gender inequality at the top of WA companies and agencies.

    But she is keeping an open mind on “de-identifying CVs” that blank out a job applicant’s age, gender and other identifiers to stop unconscious bias from affecting hiring decisions.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/28675249/minister-attacks-boys-club/

    WA apparently has the biggest gender pay gap in Australia. But good on Harvey for speaking out.

  12. Boerwar@1754

    briefly

    Excellent statistics, as with ALL greek statistics.

    Did they count the numbers on the roster, the numbers paid, or the ones that actually turned up?

    At one stage they tried to find out how much the Government actually owed. Michael lewis again –

    [ I walked over to see the Greek minister of finance, George Papaconstantinou –

    …October 2009, the Greek government had estimated its 2009 budget deficit at 3.7 percent.

    Two weeks later that number was revised upward to 12.5 percent and actually turned out to be nearly 14 percent.

    “The second day on the job I had to call a meeting to look at the budget,” he says. “I gathered everyone from the general accounting office, and we started this, like, discovery process.”

    Each day they discovered some incredible omission. A pension debt of a billion dollars every year somehow remained off the government’s books, where everyone pretended it did not exist, even though the government paid it; the hole in the pension plan for the self-employed was not the 300 million they had assumed but 1.1 billion euros; and so on.

    “At the end of each day I would say, ‘O.K., guys, is this all?’ And they would say ‘Yeah.’

    The next morning there would be this little hand rising in the back of the room: ‘Actually, Minister, there’s this other 100-to-200-million-euro gap.’ ”

    This went on for a week. Among other things turned up were a great number of off-the-books phony job-creation programs.

    By the final day of discovery, after the last little hand had gone up in the back of the room, a projected deficit of roughly 7 billion euros was actually more than 30 billion.

    The natural question—How is this possible?—is easily answered: until that moment, no one had bothered to count it all up. “We had no Congressional Budget Office,” explains the finance minister.

    “There was no independent statistical service.” The party in power simply gins up whatever numbers it likes, for its own purposes.

    Once the finance minister had the numbers, he went off to his regularly scheduled monthly meetings with ministers of finance from all the European countries. As the new guy, he was given the floor. “When I told them the number, there were gasps,” he said. “How could this happen? I was like, You guys should have picked up that the numbers weren’t right.

    But the problem was I sat behind a sign that said GREECE, not a sign that said, THE NEW GREEK GOVERNMENT.” After the meeting the Dutch guy came up to him and said, “George, we know it’s not your fault, but shouldn’t someone go to jail?”

    As he finishes his story the finance minister stresses that this isn’t a simple matter of the government lying about its expenditures. “This wasn’t all due to misreporting,” he says. “In 2009, tax collection disintegrated, because it was an election year.” ]

    http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010

  13. Boerwar

    [If we had dirt on our footwear we had to declare it.]
    Not much change there. Returning from Seppoland in the 1970s Customs were keen on footwear and visits to ANY farm whilst away . Dickheads like that on planes ? Sounds like that has not changed either.

  15. B, P-O…

    The problems in Europe are directly related to the monetary order, the accumulations of matching savings and dis-savings, and the dynamics of its customs union. While Greece is peculiarly vulnerable, its situation is not unique. Its combination of fiscal insolvency and repressed internally-oriented investment and production is also to be found in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Cypress, Slovenia, Slovakia, Latvia, Finland, Ireland and Belgium. Even The Netherlands is experiencing some internal repression.

    This is not a matter of the character of any of these peoples. It is a consequence of the monetary order. If the current system had applied in Italy, for example, during the 19th and 20th centuries, we can be fairly sure Italy would not have been able to consolidate the capital necessary for industrialisation. This is reflected in the train of events since 1999, by which Italy has been progressively de-industrialised, a process that is directly attributable to Italy’s slow adaptation to the (Euro-denominated) fixed exchange rate system.

    The system must be changed.

    The very great pity is that Syriza have premised its appeal on never changing the system. This is a new disaster.

  16. “@DanielCherny: Hird:
    “I still believe that I can coach this group. That’s my own belief. Whether it’s other people’s belief, well we’ll see.” @RealFooty1”

    Sounds like his time as coach is close to over all right

  18. @AGFchairman: Same Sex marriage passed in UK and NZ. Witnessed both as pollster with incumbent Right governments. No loss of “base” vote. Both re-elected

  19. “@AGFchairman: .. No riots or polygamous marriages afterwards. In fact both conservative governments re-elected with increased majorities #SameLove”

  22. The referendum is a cracker. No one actually knows what it is supposed to mean.

    Some people are voting ‘No!’ because they think it means ‘Yes!’

  26. Tim ‏@Tim_Beshara 4h4 hours ago

    New Zealand’s exports to China have risen 45% since they adopted marriage equality. #fact

  27. The point I have been making

    [There is amazement too that if there is to be more austerity, the prospect is not sweetened by rescheduling or writing off a good portion of Greece’s debt of €250bn or more, which everyone knows can never be repaid. That at least might have given Greeks hope that there was light at the end of austerity’s tunnel. And whatever happened to the notions of solidarity and mutual support envisaged by the EU’s founding fathers?]

    This is the crux of what has been happening.

    Note the never can be repaid. So that means what is the point of collecting taxes if they are just going straight to the Troika.

  28. From Bill Moyers…

    On the media and class warfare…

    In a 2003 interview with BuzzFlash.com, Moyers said, “The corporate right and the political right declared class warfare on working people a quarter of a century ago and they’ve won.” He noted, “The rich are getting richer, which arguably wouldn’t matter if the rising tide lifted all boats.” Instead, however, “[t]he inequality gap is the widest it’s been since 1929; the middle class is besieged and the working poor are barely keeping their heads above water.” He added that as “the corporate and governing elites are helping themselves to the spoils of victory,” access to political power has become “who gets what and who pays for it.”

    Meanwhile, the public has failed to react because it is, in his words, “distracted by the media circus and news has been neutered or politicized for partisan purposes.” ………”institutions that conservatives revere—corporate America, the military, organized religion, and their own ideological bastions of influence—will be able to escape scrutiny and increase their influence over American public life with relatively no challenge.”

  29. CTar1

    Heard their cash on hand equates to 96 Euros per head. Let’s have a Sweepstake on how many seconds that will last.

  31. Greece to Europe is like Countries to USA in terms of secret deals, TPP and so forth, all trying to rip off smaller countries and make a demand from them or scary stuff will happen.

  32. guytaur

    [ Note the never can be repaid. So that means what is the point of collecting taxes if they are just going straight to the Troika. ]

    To get the Greeks used to the idea of paying taxes?

    I wonder how many Greeks will ever see the connection between their day-to-day practices (mostly, of avoiding paying any taxes at all) and the decrepit state their country now finds itself in?

  33. P1

    Well sending the money out of the country and making people suffer with less services as austerity demands does not encourage trust in a tax system to actually provide services.

    People pay taxes due to trust that what they pay goes where it is meant to. Like we trust the rule of law of there would be anarchy.

  34. P1

    The way some here go on about Greeks and taxes you would think they never travelled or seen how other countries do it.

    Thus Greeks in Australia pay taxes then go back to Greece and don’t. Why?

    Lesson its not the Greek people its something that can be fixed as Greek people are like anyone else

  35. guytaur

    [ Thus Greeks in Australia pay taxes then go back to Greece and don’t. Why? ]

    Taxes are no so easy to evade here. Especially PAYE.

    Sounds like Greece needs both a new government and a new tax system. And if they can’t come up with one themselves, one will have to be imposed on them by their creditors … which I guess is pretty much what is actually happening.

  37. P1

    Yes Greece needs new governance. Syriza is that new governance.

    However how much control do they have as opposed to the Troika on Greek economics?

    Debt relief is the solution the Troika has to accept its going to lose money for their reckless lending practices.

    Saying that is not to excuse the past Greek governments coming with the begging bowl.

  38. Can someone please explain to me how Barnaby Joyce’s comment re gay marriage would not be liked by the Chinese?

    We don’t like the Chinese coming into Australia to buy up all our housing stock forcing up the prices either but it still it happens.

    Barnaby seriously is a joke!

  39. MTBW

    Given polling the only credible explanation is that kangaroos are loose in the top paddock.

    Rational poll driven only political pragmatists would be for SSM.

  41. guytaur

    [ Yes Greece needs new governance. Syriza is that new governance. ]

    All Syriza has done is precipitate the crisis. If they did so deliberately they are liars. If they did so accidentally they are fools.

    Either way, they cannot stay.

  42. Player One

    What matter a flying fcuk if every Greek never pays tax ? All that Greek non tax paying crap has been known for yonks. Despite this the banks rushed in and snapped up , for years, the bonds. The banks should have been severely punished for their greed. Sadly the swifty pulled in the bailout meant the banks (mostly) got their money back whilst the Euro tax payers got the bill.

    As ever ‘Joe Blow’ be it in Greece or the EU get screwed by the Spivocracy and their patrons.

  43. guytaur

    My gut tells me that despite all of the shite talked about by the rednecks in the Liberal party I think the gay marriage issue will get up.

  44. P1

    Not what experts in economics are saying.

    e.g. What role has the ECB played in the political instability of Greece by imposing austerity?

    This is a legal question as part of the charter of the ECB is to maintain political stability and forcing Syriza to have polices opposite to what it was elected on is forcing instability.

  45. P1 at 1782

    [I wonder how many Greeks will ever see the connection between their day-to-day practices (mostly, of avoiding paying any taxes at all) and the decrepit state their country now finds itself in?]

    It is not really relevant now. I see the Greeks as divided into two groups. Those who still have something in the way of money, income or property to protect and for whom a Grexit will be somewhere between painful and catastrophic. And those who consider they have, actually, nothing left to lose (and in many cases are correct) and for whom the Grexit offers some hope and no downside because they already consider themselves on the bottom.

    The problem for Greece is that too many of those who still have something left to lose do not consider it their responsibility to refloat the nation – rather, their primary responsibility is to protect what they have.

    Against this background, I think that Greece can only be fixed if TWO things happen.

    First, enough of the debt needs to be wiped to allow Greece a positive restart – this potentially could be achieved by defaulting and, effectively going bankrupt.

    Secondly, the nation as a whole rethinks how its society relates to each other through collecting revenue and spending on what will drive the Greek economy (including income support for people who will spend within that economy).

    Both are essential; neither can work on its own. The first won’t work without the second because it will just kick off another cycle of selfishness like the one that has brought the country to its knees. The second won’t work without the first because you cannot get off the ground if you are chained to it.

    Frankly, I cannot see when the second requirement will be met, but most likely it will be hastened by a Grexit. The first requirement is a piece of cake. But moral claims on the EU in terms of acting in the interests of the weaker nations (i.e., Greece) won’t work because the EU leadership does not see the Greek leadership (whether Syria or any of the more traditional parties of the past) willing to recognise what needs to be done internally.

    Which brings me to Guytaur’s comment in 1783

    [People pay taxes due to trust that what they pay goes where it is meant to. Like we trust the rule of law of there would be anarchy.]

    People also pay taxes if they think that everyone else who should be paying taxes does so too. Until the national mentality changes nothing will help Greece. It is a psychological, as well as economic, basket case.

    This doesn’t mean that the EU are good guys. On the contrary, nobody who had anything to do with Greece and the EU in the last 15 years appears to emerge with anything but substantial discredit. Which is why endless revisiting of who done what is pretty pointless in creating a positive future for Greece.

    Personally, I think a Grexit is the only way forward because Greece is not ready to take advantage of any debt relief from the EU to save itself. Only a default and a social sorting will offer hope. But gee, the social dislocation will be terrible.

  46. Guytaur@1687
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/07/02/bludgertrack-52-0-48-0-to-labor-4/?comment_page=34/#comment-2209585

    I am a bit behind, but your comment at 1687 is one of the most succinct statements of the Labor Party’s problem on dealing with the refugee issue. As a nation we need to move forward with a regional solution. ALP would like this but needs to cut through. LNP likes the status quo – it is a vote winner for them. The press of course throws all their effort behind the LNP. Ideally LNP and Greens would take a unified position to the next election.

  48. [The press of course throws all their effort behind the LNP.]

    They do even worse. They report the threat from asylum seekers and BOATS, BOATS, BOATS – ensuring that Abbott’s fear and loathing captures the headlines that is all that many people read, and then wring their collective hands about how badly the asylum seekers are treated and how Labor is not coming up with a credible alternative.

    The sheer hypocrisy of the Liberals in 2012 blocking the Malaysian people swap, while promoting the reopening of Nauru as a solution despite advice from the Immigration Department (later shown to be spot on) that it would not work, and then cherry picking the recommendations of the expert panel that Gillard set up were not criticised by any mainstream journalist that I can remember. Either they simply reported the goings-on without any criticism or else lauded the control that Abbott and co had over the politics.

    Well bugger me if the Labor Party decides that on this issue swimming against the tide just is not worth it.

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