BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight shift to the Coalition, without offering too much to support the favoured media narrative of the past few weeks.

The latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a modest move to the Coalition on the back of slightly stronger results this week from ReachTEL and Roy Morgan, reversing a movement in Labor’s favour last week. It’s also worth noting that the Greens primary vote is up further on what was already a historic high. The quarterly aggregate from Newspoll is among the newly added state-level data, together with unpublished breakdowns from ReachTEL and Essential Research and published ones from Roy Morgan, the combined effect of which is to add one seat to the Coalition tally in each of Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania. The only new leadership result this week was the preferred prime minister reading from ReachTEL, which BludgerTrack doesn’t use because its exclusion of an uncommitted result means it isn’t comparable with other pollsters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. Does the BludgerTrack model track (below the surface) any trends on primary votes for the Greens, or are state-level results purely 2PP?

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The Hillsong Church seems to be a precious sort of mob. Among other things!
    Sydney – Australia’s poverty capital.
    The Senate Committee ripped into the Big Pharma representatives yesterday. I wonder what the TPP might do in regards to this situation.
    And the MH17 saga continues.
    Is this a “death cult”?
    The Grattan Institute blasts the budget, saying it is based upon hope rather than effective policy. I suppose Hockey will brand this respected body as “clowns” too.
    And the Grattan Institute also says that the government should move to trim the generous tax concessions on superannuation. It also puts the heat on Abbott over future health funding.
    A cross party marriage equality bill will try to blindside Abbott.
    Michelle Grattan reckons Abbott is now a bit snookered on marriage equality.
    Abbott, with help from the bible basher brigade in the party, will resist a free vote on marriage equality.

  3. Section 2 . . .

    Oh dear! What a sore loser Erica Betz is!–on-gay-marriage-20150701-gi26gi.html
    Keep calm Australia, Bruce Bilson is running the economy (and also providing comedy relief!).
    Richard Ackland says “victory” has an exciting new meaning after the Hockey/Fairfax judgement. In fact Hockey could end up being well out of pocket in the final wash up.
    More disturbing leaks from Manus Island.
    Why banning smoking in prisons is a good idea
    The 34 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    There is a “war for people” looming in the APS as the large over 55 cohort starts to retire.
    Elizabeth Farrelly says her bit about the government’s reaction to Q and A.
    “View from the Street” on the detention centre staff saying they will defy the government’s gagging legislation and the marriage equality debate.
    This defence expert says climate change is a big security concern.

  4. Section 3 . . .

    Australia has a new policy paradigm – exporting and outsourcing unsavoury problems.
    Alan Moir and Abbott’s unfinished (security) symphony.

    Cathy Wilcox’s formula for a balanced Q and A.

    David Pope goes crazy with Abbott’s Border Force rapture.

    David Rowe on the government’s change of heart on debt and deficit.

  5. Further to that, reading who is sponsoring the ME bill, including independent Cathy McGowan, it is clear that overall the Liberals are far more discomforted politically by ME than Labor. The fundy brigade within Labor should be embarrassed for delaying this so long. ME is the right thing to do for the country both morally and politically.

  6. PHIL Coorey in the AFR reports,on Abbott upsetting regional media by sucking up to Murdoch and Kerry Stokes. Some interesting comments by Barnyard and Truzzzzz in the article.

    [Mr Hartigan, now chairman of regional TV company Prime Media Group, has told The Australian Financial Review that starting next week, Prime, along with fellow regional broadcasters WIN Corporation and Southern Cross Austereo, will launch a television, radio and digital campaign to pressure Mr Abbott to rethink his opposition to unwinding the two-thirds ownership rule and the reach rule.

    The campaign has the support of rural and regional Coalition MPs who are alarmed that the ongoing plight of regional broadcasters means more job losses and less local news content.

    Last week, Coalition MPs held a crisis meeting in Parliament House with the chief executives of Prime and WIN.

    “There wasn’t a spare seat anywhere,” said north Queensland MP Ewen Jones.

    “There wasn’t a regional MP who didn’t have a representative in the room, from north Queensland to WA.

    “The last thing I need in my electorate is people losing jobs.”]

  7. @sprocket___: Another thigh-slapping photo shop effort of Bill Shorten in the Daily TurdBurgler, topping drop from Simpkin #auspol

    Pretty pathetic attempt at a beat up by Murdoch organs – almost sullen reporting of the Simpkin drop of emailed correspondence between the PMO and Shorten and Marles over offers of briefings on Sovereign Borders.

    Shorten declined,,offering to send a staffer which was rejected. Marles attended 8 briefings and notes “I can assure you I was never briefed on giving cash to people smugglers”.

    Also in the SmearStralian under a “Bill Fails” type,of headline. Simpkin has to do better with this boring attempt to Get Bill.

    And Planet Janet Albrechtsen, has an opinion piece on “Who is this Bill Shorten?” . They really are struggling to get any traction

  8. A small taste of Planet Janet ( this is probably the most coherent bit, the rest trawls through her view of ALP history)

    [Even without attack ads, the Labor Party and its leader share a credibility cupboard that grows emptier by the day. On the economic shelf sits a dismal budget-in-reply speech, full of unfunded empathy, right when Labor needs to rebuild its economic credentials after the fiasco of the Rudd-Gillard years. On the immigration shelf, there’s a 14-year-old mess of unresolved issues from detention to boat turn-backs.

    Now go to the national security shelf. Opposition legal affairs spokesman Mark Dreyfus made a mash of an otherwise important and bipartisan issue by recently suggesting foreign terrorists be brought back to Australia.

    It’s impossible to discern Shorten’s long-term strategy. When a leader plays solely to the frenzied daily media cycle, he loses because there is no lasting impression of him. One day it’s spurious claims the Abbott government released intelligence maps about terrorism hot spots in Melbourne and Sydney, then it’s on to something else that lasts barely 24 hours. Come election day, no one will remember this trivia.]

  9. [Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk · 2m2 minutes ago

    If only Greece were a German Bank. There would be no question about what wld happen. Unlimited debt forgiveness & retrospective rule changes]

  10. Reading Abetz this morning I realised that if conservatives believe in ‘traditional’ (their definition) marriage, they must also support overturning no-fault divorce, and keeping a couple together even if the wife is abused.

  11. [“The last thing I need in my electorate is people losing jobs.”]

    Then why is he on board with the severe cuts to services, which has caused a lot of job losses in this area alone?

  12. [8

    At this point it is pretty clear the Greek government is trying to emgineer the circumśtances to justify a Grexit, not just put it to a vote. Sensible Tsipiras.]

    It certainly looks that way:

    [A defiant Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras urged Greeks on Wednesday to reject an international bailout deal, wrecking any prospect of repairing broken relations with EU partners before a referendum on Sunday that may decide Greece’s future in Europe.

    Less than 24 hours after he wrote a conciliatory letter to creditors asking for a new bailout that would accept many of their terms, Tsipras abruptly switched back into combative mode in a television address.

    Greece was being “blackmailed”, he said, quashing talk that he might delay the vote, call it off or urge Greeks to vote yes.

    The remarks added to the frantic and at times surreal atmosphere of recent days in which acrimonious messages from the leftist government have alternated with late-night offers of concessions to restart negotiations.

    A day after Greece became the first advanced economy to default on debt to the IMF, long lines at cash machines provided a stark visual symbol of the pressure on Tsipras, who came to power in January vowing to end austerity and protect the poor.

    “A ‘No’ vote is a decisive step towards a better agreement that we aim to sign right after Sunday’s result,” he said, rejecting repeated warnings from European partners that the referendum would effectively be a vote on whether Greece stays in the euro or returns to the drachma.

    European Council President Donald Tusk retorted in a tweet: “Europe wants to help Greece. But cannot help anyone against their own will. Let’s wait for the results of the Greek referendum.”]

  13. Morning all

    I want the frickin useless media to ask Abbott a simple question. Will he allow a free vote for the coalition on ssm. Yes or no answer will suffice

  14. Connie F-W doesn’t want the Cathy represented in SSM legislation. Wtte ‘why should we give her a platform when we’re trying to defeat her in Indi?’

  15. Niki Savva on Abbotts terror, terror, terror over-reach:

    [But will he ever learn to speak to us like adults? One grown-up to a flock of others, rather than as some authoritarian father figure determined to keep his children afraid of going outside, even in broad daylight — or as a character straight out of Mad Max, all studs and spikes, with a hi-tech blunderbuss, programmed to bludgeon rather than persuade.

    On Saturday, after the terrorist murders in Kuwait, Tunisia and France, Abbott warned the Daesh, or Islamic State, death cult was “coming after us”. The first impulse was to find a place to hide — under the bed with the Reds, or in the cellar with the other reds. This jarring, juvenile expression from a supposedly intelligent man was not the language of a commander-in-chief seeking to reassure his followers.

    Rather, it sounded like the last resort of a politician on a perpetual campaign, counting on high anxiety levels to provide a surer path to re-election.]

    And his rhetoric over the ABC:

    [Nevertheless this does not excuse Abbott’s choice language against the ABC. Talking of leftie lynch mobs, asking whose side the ABC was on, demanding that heads roll, accusing the national broadcaster of betrayal — while consistent with Abbott’s view of the world that whoever is not with him is agin him and those agin him must be removed — was completely over the top.

    Fine for Ewen Jones, not for a prime minister.

    The problem is not that Abbott is too blokey. He is too brutal. His verbal violence inspires memories of Paul Keating. With one difference. Even though Keating also made us cringe and groan, he had the capacity to make us laugh, too.]

    I disagree with her about Keating – he was at least intelligent and could communicate.

  16. This lot really don’t know how to walk and chew gum at the same time, do they!

    [Government Whip Andrew Nikolic described the renewed debate as “a poor attempt by someone to generate momentum on an issue where there is none”.

    Mr Nikolic is part of the committee that selects bills to be debated and made it clear it would not be on the agenda soon.

    “Anyone who thinks this should be prioritised over economic or national security issues has got rocks in their head and is totally misreading the needs of the Australian people,” he said.]


    [First Poll

    If it means staying in the currency bloc, the majority of Greeks may be willing to vote againt the very government they elected five months ago to take a stand against austerity.

    A GPO poll cited by said 47 percent of people are leaning toward a “yes” vote, with those in the “no” camp not far behind with 43 percent. GPO interviewed 1,000 adults on Tuesday, four days after Tsipras’s call for referendum. There is a margin of error of 3.1 percent.]

  18. [Malcolm FarrVerified account
    ‏@farrm51 Abetz argues in Asian Century SSM unacceptable because no Asian countries have SSM. So if was North American Century would be OK ]

  19. Very odd by Nikolic. I’d suggest to him that, as the member for a notoriously swinging seat, he should be trying very hard not to alienate any interest groups right now.

    The number of normally Liberal-voting gay people in Bass who might switch their votes on this issue is undoubtedly small: maybe fewer than 20. But margins in Bass have often been very tight.

  20. lizzie

    It appears that the reactionaries in the coalition are out in force making total idiots of themselves as usual.

  21. From the Guardian…

    “MPs claim almost $10,000 in travel expenses for Pollie Pedal fundraiser”

    They go on to list the daily charges & airfair claims for polis wives etc.
    Then finish the article with..
    “Guardian Australia found no records of MPs from other parties who claimed expenses for taking part in the event.”

    Maybe the headline should have read LNP claims

  22. One thing Savva does say is that the Liberal vote in Victoria represents “a killing zone” with the prospect of them losing 3 seats.

    If this is true, then why on earth did the party allow Mirabella to be preselected instead of someone who represented a fresh start and perhaps not so personally loathesome and divisive?

    Savva also says the Liberals are worried about their vote in Qld (esp the south), and in WA. For whatever that’s worth.

  23. Shorten should do a presser today asking why Abbott, after stating he wanted the parliament to own SSM, is now rallying his right wing nut jobs to derail any free vote on ssm

  24. fess

    Abbott and co are most definitely on the nose here in Victoria. Even Liberal luvvies are embarrassed by this govt

  25. Stephen Spencer
    Stephen Spencer – ‏@sspencer_63

    Fascinating that the last redoubt of conservatives opposed to #SSM is to prevent a vote they fear they will lose. #democracy
    2:40 PM – 1 Jul 2015

  26. victoria:

    I’ve noticed my local member has been much more visible the last 8-9 months or so, most esp since the failed leadership spill motion.

    Other than that however, I don’t get any sense that people here are ambivalent towards the Liberals as such. Just the PM. He really isn’t well regarded.

  27. On Mirabella, one of my Labor contacts pointed out that this is the sort of outcome to be expected when the local vote outweighs that of the central organisation.

    In Indi, anyone who was vaguely a Liberal moderate – or just didn’t like Mirabella – would have left the local party years ago. Conversely, new members joining the party would have done so because they liked her way of operating.

    It’s a fairly open secret that the wider Victorian Liberal party wanted her gone, so if the decision had been taken to the higher body for ratification (as can happen in Victorian Labor) it would have been overturned.

    Checks and balances are there for a reason.

  28. [@Kieran_Gilbert: Senior Lib MP has told me the PM will be back to where he was in January if he doesn’t allow a conscience vote on same sex marriage]

    The 6 months Abbott was given must be just about up, and despite the hysteria-infused antics, the polls have barely moved.

    So some on his side are looking for the inevitable Abbott BrainFart ™ to start ramping things up. Not sure if marriage equality is the issue, unless Abbott says or does something very stupid (high probability)

  29. [41
    Posted Thursday, July 2, 2015 at 8:40 am | PERMALINK
    Ironic that Landeryou actively engages in the HSU legacy discussion when he wrote lovingly about Williamson

    Landeryou is a walking conflict of interest, though very well connected.

  30. zoomster:

    I remember you commenting one morning that Kroger seemed to favour one of the other candidates, but that Mirabella was Canberra’s favourite.

  31. yet these MPs are all public servants themselves. Perhaps they can all do us a a big fat favour and quit being on the public teat and go into the private sector.

    19h19 hours ago
    Kiera ‏@KieraGorden
    The Libs don’t like public education, healthcare, transport, ABC or anything public @AlboMP]

  32. Is Abbott still overseas? Anyhoo, when he is back in the country. Simple question he needs to answer. Will he allow a vote or not.

  33. 42

    The Liberal moderates and other Mirabella opponents had almost 2 years to join the local Liberal branch, since Mirabella lost. Some could even have joined in the hope she lost.

  34. victoria

    I don’t think their opinion of her has changed much.

    It’s going to be very hard (again) to pick the outcome, particularly with the number of candidates already in the field.

    The key will be, I think, the reliability of National preferences. If most voters follow the HTV card without thinking, then it will be hard for Mirabella to lose.

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