BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight shift to the Coalition, without offering too much to support the favoured media narrative of the past few weeks.

The latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a modest move to the Coalition on the back of slightly stronger results this week from ReachTEL and Roy Morgan, reversing a movement in Labor’s favour last week. It’s also worth noting that the Greens primary vote is up further on what was already a historic high. The quarterly aggregate from Newspoll is among the newly added state-level data, together with unpublished breakdowns from ReachTEL and Essential Research and published ones from Roy Morgan, the combined effect of which is to add one seat to the Coalition tally in each of Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania. The only new leadership result this week was the preferred prime minister reading from ReachTEL, which BludgerTrack doesn’t use because its exclusion of an uncommitted result means it isn’t comparable with other pollsters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. 50

    If the Nationals run a Liberal preferencing HTVC, which is likely, then they are easily open to a “A vote for the Nats is a Vote for Mirabella” campaign.

  2. Victoria
    Is Abbott still overseas

    Wasn’t he at the new Stromtroopers inauguration yesterday, I think it was a 2 flag event, but did include singing battle hymn.

  3. Act of political genius for Bill Shorten to introduce his Marriage Equality Private Member’s Bill into Parliament…

    Libs now engaging in open & very public warfare… 🙂 🙂

  4. Lovely to see/hear Erica Betz and Cory Bernardi making total clowns of themselves on the broadcast media this morning..

    They have lost the ME debate ..they just don’t realize it yet 🙂

  5. TrueBlueAussie@62

    Bill Shorten clueless

    Truthie – Talking about *Clueless* reminds me you being banned from here on multiple occassions under the *special* “too stupid rule” – which was only introduced and ever used on you.

    Happy days 🙂

  6. Vic

    Also interesting that no questions from MSM during his Singapore visit about addressing the serious taxation leakage of Australian based economic activity to Singapore coffers.

  7. Those who knock Twitter as irrelevant nonsense fail to appreciate it’s powerful reach & immediacy. Paul Bongiorno & Latika Bourke are the only Aussie journos who use it effectively …PvO is considered a clown in the Twittersphere

    “How Tsipras and Varoufakis turned Greek tragedy into Twitter triumph”

    http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/jul/01/greek-government-twitter-tsipras-varoufakis-eurozone-crisis-greece-social-media?CMP=share_btn_tw

  8. This article reviews opinion polls about Europeans’ attitudes towards the Euro. It shows that Europeans are all over the shop in their thinking about the Euro. Among Europeans in countries which are not part of the Eurozone, a tiny plurality think the Euro would be good for their nation, but a slight majority thinks it has been good for the nations that already have it. It is weird that people have been observing Great Depressions in Greece and Spain for six years yet still believe the Euro has worked well. People aren’t seeing the connection between the Euro and the crisis. Bill Mitchell suggests that this is because Europeans are reducing the Euro to two things: 1. physical bank notes and coins; 2. a symbol of European progress and cooperation. They are not aware of the common currency’s negative impact on a national government’s ability to govern for its citizens.

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=31265

  9. SSM is not of itself an issue that could bring Abbott down but it is in no way insignificant in that it highlights how out-of-touch he is with the community. It adds to the narrative of him being a 20th century leader in much the same way as his views on CC. A failure to allow his party a conscience vote will please his small band of hard right supporters but will alienate the majority & disadvantage him come the election. I strongly support SSM but see a silver lining to the cloud that is Abbott’s hatred for mainstream views. SSM will likely be a millstone around his neck.

  10. fmd

    Sky News Australia
    53m53 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Senator Eric Abetz tells Sky News says undoing definition of marriage could lead to polyamory #auspol (@liztilley84)

  11. The journos of the MSM are doing their jobs – quite competently and thoroughly.
    They have 2 major job specifications.
    1. Attract eyeballs and ears to articles they write/speak so as to attract customers to the advertising that is the life blood of commercial media [the ABC journos will tag along].
    2. Promulgate the political propaganda that their employers desire. Obviously that can conflict with #1 but Rupert in particular seems happy with that.

  12. TrueBlueIdiot and his pals only want a plebiscite because they think it will delay the inevitable.

    The real TrueBlue truth is that any plebiscite would be lost. SSM advocates are not afraid of losing a plebiscite, they are simply sick of waiting, and of seeing Australia fall behind the rest of the developed world, as it has on alternative energy.

    It’s not “The Left” that’s afraid of losing a plebiscite. It’s Abbott.

    A plebiscite could very well be seen as an opportunity to get Abbott by his opponents. He called for the parliament to “own” the issue after Bill Shorten introduced his private members bill. Now Abbott is calling for the people to “own” it. The truth is Abbott thinks he can own it, but he can’t.

    Abbott is losing the tactical battle and the debate. He keeps retreating, asking for more time, more consideration. The line in the sand moves further and further towards the rear. Pretty soon it will be at Abbott’s doorstep. SSM will become the lightning rod of his destabilization.

    If a plebiscite was held and a vote for SSM was carried, Abbott’s position, not only on SSM but on many other matters, would be seen as untenable. A loss would fatally damage his political standing across the board.

    And then what’s he going to do?

    Which is why his weasel words about plebiscites are about as genuine as all his other promises. Abbott has no intention of holding one. It’s a delaying tactic.

    The Reality TV soap opera Australia has become under Abbott can’t hold together too much longer, what with its atmosphere of constant fear and Abbott’s arrogation to himself of the role of “National Defender”. Flags and fancy uniforms will eventually wane in excitement. The only way for him to keep control is to impose more of it, and at the end of that path lies fascism, which I am confident the Australian people will not accept.

    Every position Abbott’s ever held in every institution that he has been a part of has ended in disaster, with the institution in question getting rid of him. His stint as PM will end the same way. His pretending to be keen on a plebiscite will only bring that day closer.

    That’s why calls for plebiscites are so hollow.

  13. TrueBlueIdiot and his pals only want a plebiscite because they think it will delay the inevitable.

    The real TrueBlue truth is that any plebiscite would be lost. SSM advocates are not afraid of losing a plebiscite, they are simply sick of waiting, and of seeing Australia fall behind the rest of the developed world, as it has on alternative energy.

    It’s not “The Left” that’s afraid of losing a plebiscite. It’s Abbott.

    A plebiscite could very well be seen as an opportunity to get Abbott by his opponents. He called for the parliament to “own” the issue after Bill Shorten introduced his private members bill. Now Abbott is calling for the people to “own” it. The truth is Abbott thinks he can own it, but he can’t.

    Abbott is losing the tactical battle and the debate. He keeps retreating, asking for more time, more consideration. The line in the sand moves further and further towards the rear. Pretty soon it will be at Abbott’s doorstep. SSM will become the lightning rod of his destabilization.

    If a plebiscite was held and a vote for SSM was carried, Abbott’s position, not only on SSM but on many other matters, would be seen as untenable. A loss would fatally damage his political standing across the board.

    And then what’s he going to do?

    Which is why his weasel words about plebiscites are about as genuine as all his other promises. Abbott has no intention of holding one. It’s a delaying tactic.

    The Reality TV soap opera Australia has become under Abbott can’t hold together too much longer, what with its atmosphere of constant fear and Abbott’s arrogation to himself of the role of “National Defender”. Flags and fancy uniforms will eventually wane in excitement. The only way for him to keep control is to impose more of it, and at the end of that path lies fascism, which I am confident the Australian people will not accept.

    Every position Abbott’s ever held in every institution that he has been a part of has ended in disaster, with the institution in question getting rid of him. His stint as PM will end the same way. His pretending to be keen on a plebiscite will only bring that day closer.

    That’s why calls for plebiscites are so hollow and phoney.

  14. Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Video: Abetz says legislating for same-sex marriage will open pandora’s box of other possibilities like polyamory

    It could lead to dancing too!

  15. Next, women will be wanting equal pay and inferior races will be demanding Constitutional recognition.

    What would Uncle Otto say?

  16. [77
    Nicholas]

    Someone really has to explain to the Europeans that their monetary order is predicated on perpetual accumulation; that accumulation in one domain necessarily requires suppression in another; that they have a pre-modern Central Banking system; that insolvency and intractable stagnation are therefore inevitable for some national divisions.

  17. Katharine Murphy
    Katharine Murphy – Verified account ‏@murpharoo

    I wondered who would be first to polyamory. @SenatorAbetz take a bow @SkyNewsAust That’s what comes out of Pandora’s Box.

  18. Can I ask exactly what is objectionable about polyamory? Economically it could make a lot more sense, it (presumably) no longer has the cattle collecting discriminatory aspect that both marriage and broader collections of female partners once had.

    Obviously would be stupid to bring it up now before our idiot child PM damages himself by prosecuting the side of a debate that has been firmly lost and obviously so to all but the dimmest minds.

    And obviously there are sexual hang ups and nurtured beliefs most of which are incompatible with polyamory. But from basic principals why is polyamory bad?

  19. And the ABC have been spooked by the violent Abbott assault to overcompensate with RWNJ guests.

    Case in point is Piis Akerman, who up till now has been banned from the ABC for his insiders behaviour which included (on live to air, not prerecord end)

    – questioning the legitimacy of Gillard’s relationship with Tim
    – suggesting to David Marr on SSM – “what next? A man and his goat?”

    This is but a tip of the racist, mysoginist iceberg which is a “thought leader” at Murdoch’s Holt St bunker. If people want to be exposed to his garbage, they can buy the paper.

  20. Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham 16h16 hours ago

    George Brandis’ Excellence Program guidelines allow for grant recipients to be kept secret #freethearts

  21. @sprocket_/95

    I’m surprised the entire Labor Party, David Marr and others haven’t launched a group lawsuit against Akerman, Coalition MPs, Murdoch and others.

  22. Ken Tsang (jxeeno™) ‏@jxeeno 5m5 minutes ago

    Latest #NBN rollout plan only shows 4,300 premises in the Castle Hill area, as opposed to 14,200 in the earlier announcement.

    Where is the complaints that Turnbull not rolling out fast enough!

  23. I think that Abbott going firm on opposing a free vote on SSM would /will be a political blunder of MAJOR proportions.

    Opposition to it is really only appealing to a section of their voter base who are NOT going to change their vote over it anyway. They may re-direct their first preference at the election in protest, but they are certain to preference the Libs higher than the ALP or Greens further down the ballot paper.

    The stance Abbott has taken so far has pretty much destroyed ANY chance of Abbott being able to extract anything more broadly politically positive from this issue when it is finally resolved. The best he can hope for on this is a “least worst” outcome which i think they should be looking for ASAP to limit ongoing damage and get this wedgie done, dusted and out of the way.

    A situation, all of which speaks volumes about Abbott’s political incompetence and the paucity of Liberal strategic planning capability.

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