BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight shift to the Coalition, without offering too much to support the favoured media narrative of the past few weeks.

The latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a modest move to the Coalition on the back of slightly stronger results this week from ReachTEL and Roy Morgan, reversing a movement in Labor’s favour last week. It’s also worth noting that the Greens primary vote is up further on what was already a historic high. The quarterly aggregate from Newspoll is among the newly added state-level data, together with unpublished breakdowns from ReachTEL and Essential Research and published ones from Roy Morgan, the combined effect of which is to add one seat to the Coalition tally in each of Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania. The only new leadership result this week was the preferred prime minister reading from ReachTEL, which BludgerTrack doesn’t use because its exclusion of an uncommitted result means it isn’t comparable with other pollsters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 37
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  2. Rhys Muldoon
    Rhys Muldoon – Verified account ‏@rhysam
    Every Abbott government minister’s job at the moment is to be so utterly ridiculous that we don’t look

  3. sprocket_@95

    ….the ABC have been spooked by the violent Abbott assault

    Very much so.

    abbott pretty well has the ABC where he wants them – on the backfoot and cowed.

    Interesting not even some of the former prominent and now retired ABC staffers have gone to bat for their former longtime employer. That says a lot – to me anyway.

    abbott will go too far as usual and his inquiry may well be it – another star chamber.

    Wash, rinse, repeat.

  4. Try again

    [Rhys Muldoon
    Rhys Muldoon – Verified account ‏@rhysam

    Every Abbott government minister’s job at the moment is to be so utterly ridiculous that we don’t look at the budget.
    4:55 PM – 1 Jul 2015
    31 RETWEETS43 FAVORITES]

  5. i caught up with qanda on iview and whilst the likes of Paul Kelly and Tim Wilson attempted to pay out on the ABC, they only managed to make themselves look like fools

  6. [93
    WeWantPaul

    Can I ask exactly what is objectionable about polyamory?]

    The Moozis do it?

    ——————

    [Rhys Muldoon – Verified account ‏@rhysam

    Every Abbott government minister’s job at the moment is to be so utterly ridiculous that we don’t look at the budget.]

    Yep. Look anywhere but at the budget and economy.

  7. [ Don’t know if anyone’s seen the report on the dogfight between the F35 and the F16. ]

    I had a laugh about this on the previous thread last night late. Not the worlds most credible reporting. Short story is the F35 involved was flying older flight control software and the upshot of the testing being that they can relax some of the programmed manoeuvring restrictions in the current block software.

    One of the amusing things was the claim that the F16 was flying hard air to air close manoeuvring with those big drop tanks under each wing. 🙂 F16 may be a +9g fighter like the F35A, but not with those big bags attached.

    And curiously, the USAF is not going for attaching the new and very successfully low drag conformal tanks to its F16’s?? From what i have read an F16 with those on is still remarkably dangerous in a close up fight vs pretty much anything.

  8. [Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Video: Abetz says legislating for same-sex marriage will open pandora’s box of other possibilities like polyamory]

    & yet he sees no inconsistency that some of the sections of the bible he uses to justify his intolerance are Ok with polyamory?

    I think abetz media role today is to make abbott look balanced on this – erica is sounding like a crazy man grasping a straws in a cyclone. How will labor play it from here? – sit back and let the libs fight it out, and maybe contributing commentary that they libs are deeply divided and the true liberals in the party are frustrated at the hard right who have taken over the party over the past 20 years.

  9. Just on the ABC again – I have noticed this week, ABC TV News at Noon is now using its old intro of “The Federal Opposition says” to refer to Labor like they did for the tories previously.

    Not a biggy but an interesting change.

  11. As per Grattan’s piece

    [The leak caught a number of the bill’s sponsors as well as Abbott by surprise. The face of Abbott’s chief of staff Peta Credlin is said to have become a storm cloud when she heard of the Sky story, although it was known there were cross-party talks for a move in the spring session. Cabinet minister and Leader of the House Christopher Pyne has been the liaison between the group and Abbott’s office.]

  12. victoria

    I think Pyne is a slimy git. Grattan fingering him by implication for the leak does sound in character.

    However I must say its good that Pyne is on the right side of history on this issue.

    This explains the Abetz comments on those on the front bench toeing the party line. Abetz is seriously not just talking about Turnbull.

  13. “@BernardKeane: Just to confirm, @SenatorAbetz – you support criminalising homosexuality, to follow the lead of Singapore and Malaysia?”

  16. TBA

    You are sure a deadbeat.

    Last night you made the same claim that a call was on for a plebiscite re SSM and you gave 3 links as evidence of the push.

    They were links to the same Reith article you re-quopted this morning, plus links to Bolt and George Christensen articles.

    Do you really think any sensible person gives a toss about the opinions of Reith, Bolt or Christensen?

    Grow up boy!

  17. [“@BernardKeane: Just to confirm, @SenatorAbetz – you support criminalising homosexuality, to follow the lead of Singapore and Malaysia?”]

    Not a bad strategy for Abbott. Accuse the Opposition Leader of sodomy, and throw him in jail. Worked in Malaysia. Just ask Anwar Ibrahim.

  19. lizzie@18

    Connie F-W doesn’t want the Cathy represented in SSM legislation. Wtte ‘why should we give her a platform when we’re trying to defeat her in Indi?’

    What got me perplexed yesterday was they asked Mirabella on her views on it. I doubt she’ll be an MP in time for when the legislation passes.

  20. [Case in point is Piis Akerman, who up till now has been banned from the ABC for his insiders behaviour which included (on live to air, not prerecord end)]

    Akerman tends to convict himself.

    Whatever else it is, qanda is NOT the Daily Telegraph. Its viewers are NOT habitual Daily Telegraph readers, and Akerman is NOT entitled to be treated as untouchable.

    If he goes on the ABC and slags off the ABC it’ll be a one-way ticket to ridicule for him. I am confident he will not disappoint.

  21. Fran Kelly with Quentin Dempster this morning chewin the cud about Mallah.

    Dempster (strangely IMHO) focussed on the actual physical safety of the audience and said Mallah should have been on video.

    But at the end Dempster says one of the key questions is why Scott apologised immediately, before any investigation or consideration of the matter, at the request of Turnbull.

  24. “@craigthomler: Abetz’s view that Australia should be a last mover (ie not support same-sex marriage before Asia) has profound economic consequences #auspol”

  26. “@political_alert: Labor MP Terri Butler will hold a doorstop interview in Coomera today to discuss marriage equality, 1pm #auspol”

  27. imacca@107

    Don’t know if anyone’s seen the report on the dogfight between the F35 and the F16.


    I had a laugh about this on the previous thread last night late. Not the worlds most credible reporting. Short story is the F35 involved was flying older flight control software and the upshot of the testing being that they can relax some of the programmed manoeuvring restrictions in the current block software.

    One of the amusing things was the claim that the F16 was flying hard air to air close manoeuvring with those big drop tanks under each wing. F16 may be a +9g fighter like the F35A, but not with those big bags attached.

    And curiously, the USAF is not going for attaching the new and very successfully low drag conformal tanks to its F16′s?? From what i have read an F16 with those on is still remarkably dangerous in a close up fight vs pretty much anything.

    I’ve seen the lack of citation of the article as a big issue, though I’m aware too that the software seems to be the biggest issue around the F35. It’s held back the development some 7 years now.

  28. psyclaw @116

    Forget him. All the points he raised up has been rebutted here without response from him, but he conveniently brings it up again as if these issues hasn’t been addressed.

  29. [CE @78 SSM is not of itself an issue that could bring Abbott down but it is in no way insignificant in that it highlights how out-of-touch he is with the community.]

    Yes, it frames Abbott poorly, and confirms the backward looking aspects of his leadership.

  31. nbn™ Australia ‏@NBN_Australia 11m11 minutes ago

    200,000 premises have just been added to our construction schedule across the country: http://bit.ly/1C0ly5D

    To increase the already slow rollout rate of the Fraudband Network.

  32. zoidlord@131

    nbn™ Australia ‏@NBN_Australia 11m11 minutes ago

    200,000 premises have just been added to our construction schedule across the country: http://bit.ly/1C0ly5D

    To increase the already slow rollout rate of the Fraudband Network.

    At this point, I’m actually hoping my area is not in the next rollout schedule until a change of government, with the hope that a change in government brings back the FTTH rollout. Ah well.

  37. “@Kieran_Gilbert: Senior Lib MP has told me the PM will be back to where he was in January if he doesn’t allow a conscience vote on same sex marriage”

    Wow. Lib spill soon?

  38. Thanks for that stuff from Savva (earlier in the thread). I have enjoyed her this year 🙂

    The media seem to be running out of steam on Get Shorten, we must be due some reflection on Abbott.

    I’m not sure why Turnbull bothers. I presume there is some Machiavellian plot behind “getting inside the tent”, but his conversion from “liberal” Liberal to RW nut-job seems to be on-going. Perhaps he simply enjoys the sycophantic social life of being an important politician?

  40. [Wasn’t Abetz born in Austria and had relatives who were involved in war against us?]

    Well he does come across as a bit of a Colonel Klink.

  41. Raaraa @ 66

    The problem with the F-15SE is that it’s lousy for ground attack missions. It’s low profile “stealth” is targetting at protecting it in air to air combat, it’s not designed to provide any protection from ground to air weapons. It’s basically a cheap, nowhere near as good version of the F-22.

    There’s a reason everyone who’s looked at it has passed over it – if you want a multi-role stealth airplane, it has to be the F-35.

    That flight test was a little bit silly – dogfighting is essentially a failure of air superiority and strategy, and the F-16 is probably the most maneuverable airplane the West has ever created. And the F-35 isn’t designed to be a dogfighter. So yes, you’re probably boned if you get outnumbered in an F-35 dogfight. But if you’re in a dogfight in an F-35, you’ve already lost the war.

    Not that I particularly like the F-35, but it at least has to be considered on the merits of it’s design, not how good it is at random things it’s not really trying to do.

  42. @AMEQUALITY: .@RodneyCroome: we should provide leadership & hope to Asian neighbours on #marriageequality, especially with growing campaigns across Asia

  43. teh_drewski @141

    It’s a shame the US won’t be sharing their F22 and even making anymore.

    The cost of the F35 makes it seem more worthwhile buying two different fighters for different use for the same price.

    I’m preferring the Gripen myself, but it lacks stealth.

    But I don’t know enough about flight combat myself to speak extensively on this subject.

  45. [“@Kieran_Gilbert: Senior Lib MP has told me the PM will be back to where he was in January if he doesn’t allow a conscience vote on same sex marriage”]

    This is one of the reasons TBA wants a referendum on the issue. He wants to spare Dear Leader from being confronted with the choice of betraying his support base and beliefs, and running the risk of looking like an out-of-touch dinosaur.

    It’s funny, when Shorten pushed the SSM bill earlier, many of the usual commentators (including some pollsters) were talking about how it’s a low-rated issue and that people don’t vote based on that issue. While they’re right about that, they totally missed the qualitative element that by stubbornly dragging his feet on the issue, Abbott is increasingly looking too conservative and out of touch to run a modern country. It was the same kind of image that hurt Howard in 2007.

    The modern day Liberal Party don’t really understand this but the worst image a leader on the Right can have is to seem like they are too far behind the times to be effective, the “ranty, old uncle” if you will.

    And that should be a lesson to commentators on all sides who just use blind statistics as their entire argument on complex issues – especially on topics of how people think and act. There are elements you can’t necessarily quantify but you can still identify.

  46. Raaraa – I think if it was purely the purchase price, there would be no problem buying two specialised aircraft. It’s the cost of lifetime operations for two systems that makes it unaffordable without considerable increases in defence spending.

  47. [A robot has killed a contractor at one of Volkswagen’s production plants in Germany, the automaker has said.

    The man died on Monday at the plant in Baunatal, about 100km (62 miles) north of Frankfurt, VW spokesman Heiko Hillwig said.

    The 22-year-old was part of a team that was setting up the stationary robot when it grabbed and crushed him against a metal plate, Hillwig said.

    He said initial conclusions indicate that human error was to blame, rather than a problem with the robot, which can be programmed to perform various tasks in the assembly process. He said it normally operates within a confined area at the plant, grabbing auto parts and manipulating them.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/02/robot-kills-worker-at-volkswagen-plant-in-germany

  49. Carey Moore

    Yes. The “Stop the Boats” is another one. Its not about he actual boats and refugees. Its about painting Labor as weak on national security not able to control borders

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