Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

A slight move to the Coalition off a low base in this fortnight’s Roy Morgan poll, and Newspoll state breakdowns that confirm a picture of Coalition improvement being driven by New South Wales.

There’s a three-week gap between Newspolls as the new management takes effect, with Galaxy to assume the reins with a survey this weekend. That means the fortnightly release schedules of Morgan and Newspoll are now out of line, and will hopefully remain so. This week’s Morgan result, from 3282 face-to-face and SMS responses over the past two weekends, records a slight shift to the Coalition, but does off a particularly weak result last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 39%, Labor is down by the same amount to 36%, and the Greens are up half a point to 14%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred is down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5, while on previous election preferences the shift is from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47.

Also out this evening is a last hurrah from Newspoll in the shape of its quarterly aggregates of federal voting intention broken by state. GhostWhoVotes relates that these show a 50-50 split in New South Wales, compared with a 54-46 lead to Labor last time and consistent with the story being told of late by BludgerTrack; a Labor lead of 57-43 in Victoria, down from 59-41; a Labor lead of 52-48 in Queensland, compared with 50-50 last time; a 50-50 result in Western Australia, compared with an improbable Labor lead of 54-46 last time; and a 52-48 Labor lead in South Australia, down from 53-47 last time. Hopefully there will be a link to full tables from The Australian reasonably soon, as well as gender breakdowns. (UPDATE: All of that here, with a tip of the hat to Leroy Lynch).

Stay tuned for Essential Research, which as always will be with us later today.

UPDATE (Essential Research): For the first time in two months, Essential Research has budged from its 52-48 perch, with Labor’s lead in the fortnightly rolling aggregate increasing to 53-47. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged with the Coalition on 41%, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 1%, the only movement being a one-point increase for the Greens.

There is also a question on trust in particular media outlets, which as ever finds the Fairfax papers on top, The Australian slightly below, and News Corp tabloids further down still (responses were limited to those living in the papers’ relevant states). There appears to be a general downward trend here over results going back to 2011, most explicitly in the case of the Courier-Mail, which has adopted a highly partisan tone since that time, although The Age is well down over that time for reasons that are less clear to me. Even more entertainingly, the poll inquires on recognition and trust in various journalists, and finds Laurie Oakes, Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones leading on name recognition, but with the former topping the table on trust while the latter two occupy the bottom slots. Jon Faine of ABC Radio in Victoria also performed rather weakly among those who recognised him, for some reason.

There is also a question on funding of schools, for which the clear leader out of four options is having the federal government be “the main funder of all schools”. A question on whether Australian troops should fight Islamic State in Iraq records an even balance of support, with 41% in favour and 43% opposed, which is perhaps a little more hawkish than I would have guessed, and probably tells you something about reaction to the words “Islamic State”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,200 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  3. Good God!

    Every bloody thing’s a shit fight here!

    Greece, SSM and f*ck knows what else.

    Here’w my tip: the Greeks will do what the Greeks will do, and the world won’t end.

    SSM will become law, no matter WHO promotes it, opposes it or delays it.

    No-one will give a fig whose idea it was, but no-one will ever believe it was Abbott’s.

  4. [But it’s a tricky issue, especially down here in Tassie (where, correct me if I’m wrong, I think you might have once said you hail from), where the TAC wishes to reserve the right to determine who is/is not an Aborigine…]

    MB @ 957 Yeah I’m from Tassie. Hobart actually.

    I left in the early v 80s after my lawyer father sued the law society on behalf of a client. (Both dad and his client were black but not aboriginal.) He then had the establishment of Tassie attack him in as many ways as they could (legal and illegal) including threatening my life (I was 10) and my brother’s (he was 5), as well as dad’s. He snuck out of the state in the middle of an appeal against a finding of malpractice (against him).

    He took a small plane that left from Devonport, after Max Bingham rang him at home and warned him to leave immediately but not to use the main airports. Bingham said people were waiting for him at Hobart and Launceston airports. To this day I dunno if Bingham was looking out for dad or trying to scare him into leaving before he won his appeal.

    I don’t know enough about blackfella politics in Tassie to comment, but i am aware that some people who i respect on these issues see their attitude as possibly a bit dodgy. Certainly everywhere I’m aware of on the mainland aboriginality is an inclusive thing.

    [I think his precise words were “brought up Aboriginal”. I think he was thinking of the concept in the same way that someone who grew up in a house of non-believers/non-synagogue attenders who didn’t Because eat pork or celebrate Christmas would consider themselves to have been “brought up Jewish”.]

    I reckon a closer comparison would be brought up Jewish in Europe any time before 1930.

    One of the things about being brought up aboriginal is dealing with overt racism. This helps create a sense of shared experience and identity. I know people from the same family, with the same parents whose skin colour varies alot, and more so if the paler people end up working indoors. They weren’t immune to the racism their darker siblings copped, often they copped just as much. I don’t think Bolt understands or acknowledges this. I doubt he’d care if he did understand.

    I look like I’m aboriginal and even today its the first assumption people make about me – tho its very different now to 25 years ago. Even that is enough is enough to create a sense of shared experience between myself and every aboriginal person I’ve ever met. I expect being “brought up aboriginal” would make that sense of shared experience sharper and more important than mine.

  7. [You’re not a fan are you? He’s not worthy.]

    How I feel about Nick Xenophon is irrelevant (if you must know, I am not a supporter of his.) The facts are.

    That accusation not only is pathetic but also hypocritical considering the entire basis of your argument is “I don’t like Nick Xenophon so he’ll vote the wrong way.”

  8. jules

    Thank you for telling us that. We can’t easily put ourselves into others people’s shoes without similar experiences.

  9. Victoria
    Found this in Guardian..
    East Timor drops Australia spying case at UN’s international court of justice

    But it only applies to the ASIO document seizure…

    East Timor has accused Australia of spying to gain a commercial advantage during 2004 negotiations over the Timor Sea gas treaty, which covers a vast gas field between the two nations worth billions of dollars.

    Australia said last week it was disappointed by Dili’s plan to continue with litigation and vowed to “strongly defend” its case.

    I bet they’re disssapointed that Howard’s shenanigans likely be exposed in the main litigation.

  11. re 1010

    [•Child poverty is defined as living in a home where the income is less than 60 per cent of the national average.]

    Does anyone know how this would stack up in Australia?

  13. CM: As I said earlier, I don’t much care what happens with SSM, so there’s no especially “right” or “wrong sides AFAIAC, I checked his voting record and X did vote for the 2012 bill (which had no chance) but he had voted against the earlier Greens’ bill and other relevant motions. In 2013 he abstained from a vote congratulating the UK for their SSM bill.

    My problem with X is that, apart from his views on pokies, he won’t take a stance on any controversial issue. He seems to be that sort of independent who wants to be all things to everyone. Forgive me for finding that not very admirable.

  14. dtt@1005: touché.

    But, as I have been saying all day, I prefer an anti-austerity approach based on investing in productive activity, as Rudd did. I see no indication that this is what Syriza wants to do. If they did, they’d presumably tell the world about it and would get my support and probably that of the troika.

    Austerity ain’t just austerity. That’s my point. Protecting the pensions and permanent jobs of the older generation of Greeks sure as hell won’t help the young unemployed. Tsipras rants and raves about youth unemployment, but the only solution he offers “get rid of austerity”. Pretty woolly if you ask me.

  17. lizzie

    Aussie birds are smart. Have you come across these before ?

    [Chestnut-crowned babbler: Australian bird becomes first known non-human species to communicate using language

    “This is the first time that the capacity to generate new meaning from rearranging meaningless elements has been shown to exist outside of humans,” said Simon Townsend of the University of Zurich]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/chestnutcrowned-babbler-australian-bird-becomes-first-known-nonhuman-species-to-communicate-using-language-10353537.html

  19. jules@1004: your understanding of Aboriginality is the one people of my age grew up with, a concept based largely on colour. It meant that people like Faith Bandler (a Melanesian) and Bobbi Sykes (daughter of an African-American US soldier on R&R) could be accepted leaders of the Aboriginal movement.

    Today, the debate is increasingly about which specific community people come from. When money and/or land comes into play, this can all get a bit nasty: as we are seeing now in Western NSW with Ngemba people accusing Barkindji people of being phonies and ring-ins from Queensland. Or in Tassie in terms of who is permitted to access the Tasmanian Aboriginal legal service.

    Skin colour is becoming increasingly irrelevant in this context. And, south of the centre, culture doesn’t really enter into it too much either: nobody south of the centre has been initiated for several generations now (indeed, a dwindling few are being initiated in northern and central Australia now) and any native language speakers have largely learned their languages from the writings of 19th and 20th century white people.

    And a growing number of city-dwellers brought up in standard suburban households are finding themselves to be Aboriginal (not infrequently, alone among their families) and declaring so in the Census and elsewhere.

    I don’t have any particular problem with any of this. But I think that it’s ok for people to ask questions about it. They shouldn’t be silenced by acts of parliament.

  20. Tsipras throws in the towel

    [Mr Tsipras’ letter says Athens will accept all the reforms of his country’s value-added tax system with one change: a special 30 per cent discount for Greek islands, many of which are in remote and difficult-to-supply regions, be maintained.

    On the contentious issue of pension reform, Mr Tsipras requests that changes to move the retirement age to 67 by 2022 begin in October, rather than immediately. He also requests that a special “solidarity grant” awarded to poorer pensioners, which he agrees to phase out by December 2019, be phased out more slowly than creditors request.

    “The Hellenic Republic is prepared to accept this staff-level agreement subject to the following amendments, additions or clarifications, as part of an extension of the expiring [bailout] program and the new [third] loan agreement for which a request was submitted today, Tuesday June 30th 2015,” Mr Tsipras wrote. He added:

    As you will note, our amendments are concrete and they fully respect the robustness and credibility of the design of the overall program.

    Eurozone finance ministers are due to discuss Mr Tsipras’ new proposal in a conference call at 5:30pm, Brussels time.]

    http://www.ft.com/fastft/353421

  23. The silent majority are against same-sex marriage. Most people I know oppose it. Good on Prime Minister Abbott for standing up for common sense.

  24. poroti

    I haven’t seen them because they’re not in my region. But I don’t see why they’re so special, as many birds have different calls to indicate different messages. No doubt Boerwar will give you the definitive opinion 😉

  25. Pedant 962

    I would love to see a Royal Commission into ASIS eavesdropping on the East Timorese Cabinet for commercial reasons. I do not believe that a future Labor Government would set up an RC into this matter, or into sex abuse of detainees in offshore centres. Labor are gun shy on setting up RCs which would highlight wrongdoing by their opponents. There was no RC into the Iraq War, or into the AWB’s bribery of Saddam Hussein’s government to secure wheat contracts, or into the chronic failures of the privatized Jobs Network.

  26. At the risk of inciting BB’s wrath for being pernicketty —

    Prairie dogs use language –

    [“They’re able to describe the colour of clothes the humans are wearing, they’re able to describe the size and shape of humans, even, amazingly, whether a human once appeared with a gun,” Slobodchikoff said.

    The animals can even describe abstract shapes such as circles and triangles.

    Also remarkable was the amount of information crammed into a single chirp lasting a 10th of a second.

    “In one 10th of a second, they say ‘Tall thin human wearing blue shirt walking slowly across the colony.'”]

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/prairie-dogs-language-decoded-by-scientists-1.1322230

  27. Bree

    [The silent majority are against same-sex marriage. Most people I know oppose it]

    So determined to remain silent are this majority that they don’t talk to opinion pollsters, who find that the non silent majority support marriage overwhelmingly.

    And of course most of the people you know oppose it. Get out more.

  28. With today’s inauguration of Australia’s new paramilitary Boarder Protection unit it’s worth considering how Abbott’s regime would treat Earnest Hemmingway had he been an Australian & taken part in today’s equiviliant of the Spanish Civil war.

    Would they have cancelled his passport & removed his citizenship.

  29. lizzie

    Yep . Despite what the LNP orcs , the Murdoch rags , Shoutback radio and the TT type shows scream we spend way less on welfare than the OECD average. A life of Riley on welfare ? Yeah right.

    A look at the state of retired people around the world saw Australia ranked very highly . Tops in a number of areas when it came to health etc but they came way down the list when it came to rankings of “financial security” . Some pretty busted arske countries were ahead of us.

  30. sceptic

    Another that would qualify for Abbott shit sheet. Kiwi PM John Key’s dad took off and fought against Franco’s fascists.

  31. If the Western sky is clear where you are and you have a good view to the West, check out Venus and Jupiter. Two bright white jewels.

  32. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-01/quiggin-could-greek-resistance-bring-down-the-eu/6585508

    [If Greece successfully resists austerity measures imposed by the Troika, it will bring about a crisis that must end either in a radical restructuring of the institutions of the European Union, or in the end of the Union itself, writes John Quiggin.

    It now appears highly likely the long-running Greek debt crisis will be resolved in the way that all parties have sought, at least until very recently, to avoid: with Greece abandoning the common European currency and to repudiate its debt.]

    Quiggin taking a bearish line…

  33. Nice trolling, Bree.

    I suspect you need to make some improvements to your sampling methods. Your friends are hardly a representative sample of the population (neither are mine, for that matter). Our friends tend to share our views. That’s why they are our friends.

  34. guytaur @850:

    [So you think Stiglitz was wrong to back Wayne Swan and the rest of the Labor team?

    Can’t have it two ways. Either he is a credible economist or he is not]

    That’s weak, GT. First, it’s an argument to authority. Second, even a credible – even a brilliant – economist can still get it wrong.

    I happen to think Stiglitz has gotten it right on this occasion – there’s no path to prosperity for Greece within the Euro – but your argument is weak.

  35. [jules@1004: your understanding of Aboriginality is the one people of my age grew up with, a concept based largely on colour.]

    Thanks for telling me that. I always find non aboriginal people so much more authoritative on these issues.

  36. [Would they have cancelled his passport & removed his citizenship.]

    If he fought for the Republicans, yes.

    Today Abbott mused on the “moral” difference between fighting for ISIS Death Cults and fighting for the Kurds against ISIS Death Cults.

    HE said he regretted both, but you knew he didn’t, really.

  38. Of all things in life, one thing is certain: what is said here regarding Greece will not influence what Greece does, one whit.

  39. Just upgraded my iPhone and iPad on Apple’s prompting.

    Offered a free 3 month trial for Apple Music, said OK. $11.99 a month after the trial expires. And then presented with a 48 page Terms and Conditions to accept. Grudgingly said OK.

    It seems quite good with access to (what appears to be) all music ever made.

  40. [It seems quite good with access to (what appears to be) all music ever made.]

    I heard a commentator on radio this afternoon say it doesn’t have anything at all by The Beatles.

  41. poroti @1017:

    [Aussie birds are smart. Have you come across these before ?

    Chestnut-crowned babbler: Australian bird becomes first known non-human species to communicate using language

    “This is the first time that the capacity to generate new meaning from rearranging meaningless elements has been shown to exist outside of humans,” said Simon Townsend of the University of Zurich]

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjE0Kdfos4Y

    That is all XD

  44. Re Shellbell: Venus is the very bright star in the West and Jupiter is close by but not as bright. Both will set around 8:20PM EAST so will now be close to the horizon, less than 15 degrees by now.

  45. BB

    [I heard a commentator on radio this afternoon say it doesn’t have anything at all by The Beatles.]

    Hmmm. Could be right, did a search and only covers. Must be a copyright issue.

  46. [1036
    Bushfire Bill

    Today Abbott mused on the “moral” difference between fighting for ISIS Death Cults and fighting for the Kurds against ISIS Death Cults.

    HE said he regretted both, but you knew he didn’t, really.]

    I suspect the Kurds are still classified as terrorists.

  47. It would be interesting to see what the public reaction would be if Dutton actually threw some doctor into jail for talking out over our concentration camps. I think most people think it’s all hot air at this point. Maybe it is, time will tell.

  49. Has this made it to the blog, in-between arguments about Greece and the usual Greens-Versus-The-World-Because-They-Have-A-Monopoly-On-Morality shitfight?

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott has slapped down a cross-party attempt to legalise same-sex marriage, but faces six weeks of potentially divisive debate over the issue, with conservative MPs mobilising to block any move to legislate the land mark social reform.

    The debate over same-sex marriage will come to a head in August when a marriage equality bill moved by Liberal MP Warren Entsch and seconded by Labor MP Terri Butler and backed by a multi-party grouping will be introduced to Parliament.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/multiparty-samesex-marriage-bill-to-be-introduced-in-august-20150701-gi2j5a.html ]

  50. Bushfire Bill@1003

    Good God!

    Every bloody thing’s a shit fight here!

    Greece, SSM and f*ck knows what else.

    Here’w my tip: the Greeks will do what the Greeks will do, and the world won’t end.

    SSM will become law, no matter WHO promotes it, opposes it or delays it.

    No-one will give a fig whose idea it was, but no-one will ever believe it was Abbott’s.

    Good god, for once I agree with you!

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