There’s a three-week gap between Newspolls as the new management takes effect, with Galaxy to assume the reins with a survey this weekend. That means the fortnightly release schedules of Morgan and Newspoll are now out of line, and will hopefully remain so. This week’s Morgan result, from 3282 face-to-face and SMS responses over the past two weekends, records a slight shift to the Coalition, but does off a particularly weak result last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up 1.5% to 39%, Labor is down by the same amount to 36%, and the Greens are up half a point to 14%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred is down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5, while on previous election preferences the shift is from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47.
Also out this evening is a last hurrah from Newspoll in the shape of its quarterly aggregates of federal voting intention broken by state. GhostWhoVotes relates that these show a 50-50 split in New South Wales, compared with a 54-46 lead to Labor last time and consistent with the story being told of late by BludgerTrack; a Labor lead of 57-43 in Victoria, down from 59-41; a Labor lead of 52-48 in Queensland, compared with 50-50 last time; a 50-50 result in Western Australia, compared with an improbable Labor lead of 54-46 last time; and a 52-48 Labor lead in South Australia, down from 53-47 last time. Hopefully there will be a link to full tables from The Australian reasonably soon, as well as gender breakdowns. (UPDATE: All of that here, with a tip of the hat to Leroy Lynch).
Stay tuned for Essential Research, which as always will be with us later today.
UPDATE (Essential Research): For the first time in two months, Essential Research has budged from its 52-48 perch, with Labor’s lead in the fortnightly rolling aggregate increasing to 53-47. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged with the Coalition on 41%, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 11% and Palmer United on 1%, the only movement being a one-point increase for the Greens.
There is also a question on trust in particular media outlets, which as ever finds the Fairfax papers on top, The Australian slightly below, and News Corp tabloids further down still (responses were limited to those living in the papers’ relevant states). There appears to be a general downward trend here over results going back to 2011, most explicitly in the case of the Courier-Mail, which has adopted a highly partisan tone since that time, although The Age is well down over that time for reasons that are less clear to me. Even more entertainingly, the poll inquires on recognition and trust in various journalists, and finds Laurie Oakes, Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones leading on name recognition, but with the former topping the table on trust while the latter two occupy the bottom slots. Jon Faine of ABC Radio in Victoria also performed rather weakly among those who recognised him, for some reason.
There is also a question on funding of schools, for which the clear leader out of four options is having the federal government be “the main funder of all schools”. A question on whether Australian troops should fight Islamic State in Iraq records an even balance of support, with 41% in favour and 43% opposed, which is perhaps a little more hawkish than I would have guessed, and probably tells you something about reaction to the words “Islamic State”.
shea mcduff
I expect that explains why they vote against their own wellbeing. It is a tragedy for all of us.
I once stayed in Bkelke-Petersen country and was astounded at the local adoration of his wisdom. No one would hear a word against him.
Obviously the answer to rising sea levels is to have everyone take a bucket to the beach, fill it with seawater and take it home with them.
[Nadine Flood @NadineFloodCPSU · 3h3 hours ago
Quote from ABF officer- ‘You can tell Abbott from me, if Border Force is so effing important, why are you trying to cut our pay?’ @CPSUnion ]
[Kate Ellis @KateEllisMP · 2m2 minutes ago
New analysis: Gvt’s child care changes will hurt 270,000 families, 1in4 in system, by average $1880 per year #TeamKE http://www.kateellis.com.au/newsroom/1124/ ]
Okay, okay, I’ll shut up for a bit.
Carmody takes a demotion:
[Justice Carmody will retain his office and standing as a Judge of the Supreme Court.
He will serve as a supplementary judicial member of the Queensland Civil and Administrative Tribunal.
]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-01/queenslands-chief-justice-tim-carmody-resigns/6587422
Guytaur@693: you must surely mean “austerity” rather than “GFC”. Otherwise your post doesn’t make any sense.
Anyway, I’ll have one last try at making you understand: I don’t expect you to change your mind.
Apart from some one-off payments to welfare recipients to stimulate spending, most of Australia’s GFC response expenditure went towards building sector activities which created a lot of short-to-medium term employment. Eg, the point of the much-maligned pink batts scheme was that it produced employment opportunities which required very little advance training. Pretty much everything in the GFC package was about creating or protecting jobs.
Switch to Greece and what they’ve achieved for bring “not austere”. Lots of protected, highly-paid government jobs for workers with low productivity. Unaffordable pension schemes financed out of the operating budgets of companies and government agencies rather than superannuation investment schemes (and, for this outcome, employers must take as much or more of the blame as unions). Dodgy government contracting arrangements. Tax avoidance as a national pastime.
In short, living beyond their means.
So the difference between Australia’s GFC response and what Greece has being doing for many years is the difference between someone with a job borrowing money to buy shares and an unemployed person maxing out their credit cards to pay for a holiday at a resort.
[Because we have stopped killing whales.
Therefore they are filling up the oceans and making the level rise.]
Yeah, but there are less fish so that would cancel that out…..
It’s no good. I can’t keep this to myself.
[The empire strikes back – Gina Rinehart style.
In what is largely being interpreted as a public relations offensive and, after spending years avoiding media scrutiny, Australia’s richest person Gina Rinehart is set to appear on the ABC’s Australian Story over two episodes, beginning on Monday, in what is being billed as her most revealing interview yet.
The unusual move comes as Rinehart revealed she was suing the creators of the House of Hancock miniseries, which aired on Channel Nine amid much controversy.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/gina-rinehart-to-spill-the-beans-in-australian-story-interview-20150701-gi2hp4.html#ixzz3ecIg2glk
[“@ABCNewsBrisbane: #BREAKING Qld Chief Justice Tim Carmody resigns #qldpol”]
AGAIN?
[
582
Gorkay King
Whether we like it or not Coalition’s turn back policy works. It makes sense and has the majority support in the country. Sure the way it is implemented and rhetoric surrounding it is bad, but it stops people attempting the journey.]
How do we know?
It’s an on-water matter, which we plebs are increasngly not trusted to know the details of nor make informed judgments about.
[Labor can’t afford another open door policy in power as Greens are pushing for because it doesn’t work, gives plenty of ammunition to conservatives, tabloid media has a field day with it.]
Agree.
[It’s not a central issue to lives of voters, election is won on economy, industrial relations, health, education and infrastructure. Asylum seekers, privacy laws, data retention etc while important, are just side issues.
]
Asylum seekers on boats has been deliberately turned into a proxy measure for voters on how the government is performing, with a political influence far beyond it’s real practical importance.
A bit hypocritical of Chris Bowen to be complaining about the Govt playing opportunist politics with tax on super when the ALP are blatantly playing opportunist politics with the age pension going to the well off.
MB
No I mean GFC. Australia did not do austerity and thus avoided a recession.
The countries that did austerity went into recession.
The lesson is clear austerity is contractionary and the last thing you do in bad times.
[Islamist.
As suggested earlier it’s very ‘Crusader’ rhetoric.]
It’s also actually the proper term to describe the political movement in the Middle East/North Africa of including direct Islamic law and custom in the governing and lawmaking of a country. Just because some hardline idiots like Abbott appropriate it for their own agenda, it doesn’t mean the word is invalid.
Both the two major parties too pre-occupied with opportunist politics rather than good policy.
A result of both parties being poorly led.
[“@ABCNewsBrisbane: #BREAKING Qld Chief Justice Tim Carmody resigns #qldpol”
AGAIN?]
Perhaps it is one of those Sepp Blatter type resignations. “No, no, no. I did not resign, I am just resting”.
thinkbroadband.com @thinkbroadband 2m2 minutes ago
Our Q2/2015 Broadband Speed test results are hot off the press, more analysis over the next few days #digitalbritain
Virgin Media in UK remains top, while BT is falling.
[
713
lizzie
Just Me
I believe that disputes over fences are one of the greatest causes of fights between residents.
]
“disputes over fences”
Or lack of fences. I could use a high solid between me and my closest neighbour. 😉
newmatilda @newmatilda 2m2 minutes ago
Leaked Docs Confirm Restrictions On Manus Refugees And Reveal Disturbing Self-Harm Incident | http://bit.ly/1CIksXg
“@KnottMatthew: BREAKING: Q&A executive producer Peter McEvoy has received an official misconduct warning for last Monday’s episode”
“@BevanShields: ABC board backs retention of @QandA: ‘The program should have a long future on the ABC’ #auspol”
Just Me #911
Yes we plebs have no idea re Operation Sovereign Borders and the treatment of asylum seekers in our detention centres.
There are so many questions that need to answered by an appropriate inquiry.
[
901
lizzie
I once stayed in Bkelke-Petersen country and was astounded at the local adoration of his wisdom. No one would hear a word against him.
]
I loved my south Queensland dwelling paternal grandparents, and they loved me. But it wasn’t always easy, with them being absolutely hardcore life-long rusted-on Jo fans, who thought Whitlam was the devil incarnate.
[I could use a high solid between me and my closest neighbour. ;)]
I could use a high solid fence between me and my closest neighbour. 😉
booleanbach @ 856.
Yeah. Greece was an easy target.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abc-board-appoints-ray-martin-to-conduct-audit-of-qa-following-zaky-mallah-episode-20150701-gi2lcn.html
Interesting!
guytaur@913. Then your comment doesn’t make any sense. I certainly never said anything like that “Australia’s response had nothing to do with the GFC.” I explained how it was an excellent response to the GFC because it focused on jobs, jobs, jobs (oh, and on avoiding a run on the banks, which was very important too).
This divisive, destructive PM at it again.
Deliberately combining ‘Islamist’ with ‘death cult’. It’s disgusting.
It must be incredibly insulting and soul-destroying to the overwhelming majority of muslims living peacefully in our communities.
MB
It makes no sense to you because you are ignoring the important bit. Australia did the exact opposite of austerity.
Austerity is contractionary. The austerity in Greece made things worse not better. Thats the point
Is the ABC punishing him before Turnbull punishes then ABC?
[“@KnottMatthew: BREAKING: Q&A executive producer Peter McEvoy has received an official misconduct warning for last Monday’s episode”]
If they have to have the wretched review, then Ray Martin is a pretty good choice IMO. He’s a fully-fledged journo who believes in editorial independence. And he’s the sort of bloke – an Aborigine who grew up on a mission who has embraced mainstream Aussie values – that the RWNJs in parliament and writing for Limited News will think twice about criticising.
I didn’t think ray martin grew up on a mission. The abc should be all right tho…
[He’s a fully-fledged journo who believes in editorial independence.]
Unless you do a show criticising his rating chasing attacks on dole bludgers. The he’ll ring the abc and have it axed.
Then he’ll ring the abc…
John Safran meets Ray Martin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsbcScp9wpU
guytaur@929: do you think Alan Bond was doing the right thing when he engaged in the “opposite of austerity” with borrowed money he couldn’t hope to repay? Should his shareholders, who lost everything, have felt grateful to them that he didn’t impose “austerity” (aka living within your means) on the business that they owned?
Avoiding austerity with borrowed money is a risk. The Rudd Government took a calculated risk during the GFC and it turned out well. That doesn’t mean that all avoidance of austerity is thereby vindicated forever.
I’m not expert enough in the Greek economy to provide detailed criticism of each and every element of the troika’s package. But I know enough to know that creditors don’t generally respond well to people looking for debt relief who offer nothing other than to go on doing exactly what they have been doing or even suggesting that the creditor should loosen the strings a little and allow them to occasionally buy a better type of wine.
As I said, I reckon that if a Greece were offering to use any extra money they were given to introduce a Rudd-style stimulus package, then the troika would jump at it. But my understanding is that they are baulking at being told to sell off the sorts of government assets that Hawke, Keating and Howard sold years ago. Why? Because these GBEs are featherbedded, unproductive workplaces.
Fair enough that the Greeks don’t want to give up these things. Their choice. But the rest of Europe thinks, quite understandably, that it’s not their job to bankroll this choice.
He’s still bitter about it too shellbell.
[An interview Ray Martin has given to Fairfax indicates that his run-in with John Safran in the 1990s still smarts.]
shea mcduff@885
LOL probably from the same people who thinks they’re affected by non-running wind turbines.
Jules@933: my bad. You’re right: I remember him talking once about visiting the site of the old Walgett mission, and thought he had come from there. But according to Wikipedia, it was his great-grandmother. Ray, like some of those the Bolter got into trouble for criticising, seems to have only discovered his Aboriginal roots as an adult. This is a phenomenon about which I really am not sure what I think.
But that’s a discussion for another day.
[Consistent with Justice Carmody’s offer and in a generous and gracious gesture for the greater public good]
Pass me the bag please, I feel ill
Ray Martin … FMD!
[Is the ABC punishing him before Turnbull punishes then ABC?]
Could be. Or they could be saving Turnbull from himself.
Errors of judgement that upset mainly the government should not be punishable by dismissal.
I’ve learnt a lot about Public Service rules and regs in the past year from working on my wife’s case. We were NSW State Public Service, and this is Commonwealth, but Commonwealth rules are even stricter than State ones. They would have to prove serious misconduct, probably wilful and repeated, to justify a sacking.
It would be difficult to justify sacking a producer for introducing controversy to a TV show that deliberately sets out to discuss controversial subjects.
Further, the “security” angle is all wrong, from the point of view of the repeat broadcast. After the first show, we KNOW there was no violence, so the “Security” objection lapses for all but that first telecast.
All they can be objecting to really is the expression of Mallah’s ideas, which (to my mind) weren’t all that shocking. “Uncomfortable”, “contrary to government scare campaign” maybe, but not shocking.
Rudeness to a minister? Meh. This minister is a bloke who said Gillard should be knifed.
“Convicted criminal”? I bet Mallah isn’t the first convicted criminal to have asked a question on Q&A. He didn’t even murder anyone, or steal anything. He only bragged he was going to, and (according to the judge at his case) mostly after entrapment. I know “Threatening to kill an ASIO officer” sounds bad, but I find the coy way the true facts about his statements are skirted around suspicious. He may well have made some stupid, insincere threat that was taken too literally. I threatened to kill my grandson the other day and he laughed at me. No context of Mallah’s threat has been mentioned so far, which is curious.
Alternatively… make life so hard for the poor man that he resigned “voluntarily”. They try that a lot, too, and it succeeds all too often.
What I HAVE learnt from ym wife’s case is that if you fight them, you can tangle them up in all kinds of legal cobwebs that can take a long time to un-entangle. There are rules that have to be followed, even by senior management, even by the minister.
The key is to NOT RESIGN. Let them do their worst, and then pick it apart, piece by piece.
Oh, and I’d completely forgotten about the Safran thing. If he comes out relatively sympathetic to the ABC this time then the Safran episode will add to his credibility.
Jim Spiegelman is a very, very clever bloke. He would have his reasons for doing what he’s done. The announcement today immediately throws into question the point of Turnbull’s bizarre and inappropriate departmental review.
And the public reprimanding of McEvoy might seem over the top (because I, at least, struggle to see that he has done much wrong: and. anyway, poor judgement is not the same thing as misconduct). But it throws the ball back into the Government’s court to come up with some suggestion as to what more they would suggest that the ABC do. If anyone in the government now specifically calls for McEvoy’s sacking, I reckon they’ll look very silly indeed.
One final thought. I reckon that what ACA did to the Paxtons was ten times as awful as the decision to allow Zaki Mallah on Q&A.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-01/coalition-mps-to-co-sponsor-private-members-gay-marriage-bill/6587406
Has there been much reporting re the Health debacle? Waiting to hear Minister Ley with a please explain
I think the Carmody resolution has been VERY well handled by Yvette D’Arth. It was a tricky situation for everyone, not the least because of Carmody’s inexperience in such negotiation.
This is a face saving solution, he keeps considerable statues, with the promise of further advancement if he behaves himself – ie no stupid judgements, not fraternising with people connected with cases, and presumably putting an end to further acrimony.
I am told that Hugh Fraser the Acting Chief Justice is a truly brilliant lawyer.
[ “@ABCNewsBrisbane: #BREAKING Qld Chief Justice Tim Carmody resigns #qldpol”
AGAIN?]
He’s had more farewells than Cher.
[Ray Martin … FMD!]
As Mike Moore said: “Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.”
[shellbell
Posted Wednesday, July 1, 2015 at 5:01 pm | PERMALINK
Consistent with Justice Carmody’s offer and in a generous and gracious gesture for the greater public good
Pass me the bag please, I feel ill]
Or, in the words of James Bond as he pushed the baddie out of the space station, “take a giant leap for mankind”.
[But that’s a discussion for another day.]
Yeah no ones changing their mind on that one.
However I do seem to remember none of the people Bolt had a go at only discovered (their) Aboriginal roots as an adult, tho one of the reasons he got into trouble was for insinuating it. 9 of the people he named gave evidence and every one was raised “as an aboriginal”.