ReachTEL has leapt into the post-budget field on behalf of the Seven Network, with an automated phone poll conducted last night from 3180 respondents. It records a slight improvement for the Coalition compared with the pollster’s earlier holding pattern, with the Coalition primary vote on 41.1% (up 1.3%), Labor on 38.3% (down 1.0%), the Greens on 12.1% (up 0.2%) and Palmer United on 2.2% (steady). Interestingly, the poll provides breakdowns by respondents’ employment status, which I might take a closer look at later in comparison with past post-election survey data. The budget doesn’t get a huge endorsement, with 16.4% rating they will be better off, 30.3% worse off and 53.3% about the same.
Contrary to other recent polling, this result gives Bill Shorten a clear lead on preferred prime minister of 57.2-42.8, with the important methodological distinction that respondents to this poll were not allowed an “uncommitted” option. Questions on leadership approval provide more evidence of Tony Abbott’s ongoing improvement, while Bill Shorten’s “satisfactory” result is up at the expense of both favourable and unfavourable responses. A three-way question on who has done the best job promoting the budget finds only 11.7% favouring Tony Abbott, with the rest divided between Joe Hockey (44.8%) and Scott Morrison (43.4%). Full results here.
One of Moir’s best.
mikeh:
And that which we’ve come to know all too well: “You wouldn’t trust this lot with a jam jar full of 5c bits”
How prescient was Paul?!
BK
If a Murdochrat is “apoplectic” over Bill’s speech then it must have been a good one.
I think Bob Hawke describe Abbott as ‘as mad as a cut snake’.
In fact, herein lies the biggest mistake Labor has made for a long time. “Cut” snake is the wrong adjective.
From a long time back, Labor has underestimated Abbott. Not because he is all that good, but his wish for power dominates all his actions.
His followers who love the access to power he brings seem to think he has some broader agenda about improving things for Oz citizens whereas I tend to feel his true constituency is much narrower.
“A populous weather vane” is the most apt description for the man and nothing in his tenure as PM shows him as anything else to date.
Even on the world stage he had to threaten to shirt front Putin and try to grab glory by announcing the MA flight had been found and looked a complete fool while feeding his own ego.
poroti
Exactly!
Making STEM programs at university tuition-free is a great idea. It ought to be extended to all university programs but this would be a good place to start. It is neither necessary nor desirable to ration education based on willingness to pay. Price signals serve no useful purpose here. The only criterion for access to university should be the student’s ability to complete the program satisfactorily. Defending a student financial contribution to university education is as foolish as advocating a co-payment for GP visits.
rossmcg
Here is Abbott 2013. No surprises blah blah…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HredFbscC_c
Nicholas
[Making STEM programs at university tuition-free is a great idea. It ought to be extended to all university programs but this would be a good place to start. It is neither necessary nor desirable to ration education based on willingness to pay. Price signals serve no useful purpose here. The only criterion for access to university should be the student’s ability to complete the program satisfactorily. Defending a student financial contribution to university education is as foolish as advocating a co-payment for GP visits.]
Education should be a priority of Government not just in funding but in quality and standards.
Nicholas
I disagree, as a recent student, I have no issue with the HECS fee structure as it currently stands,Student’s should be prepared to pay a fee after they have finished the degree and have started using it in the real world.
My only complaint about the fee structure is that the fees should cover the cost of textbooks rather than paying for some professors research.
Education including university should be free full stop.
Frankly there’s no two ways about it with my vote. A nice first step in that direction from Bill Shorten, but he’s got a hell of a long way to go before he can reclaim the progressive mantle from the Greens, who tonight tackled the funding side of the equation head on.
Primary and secondary school should be free whilst university should have a fee in line with its current levels
The answer to ‘where’s the money coming from?’ is:
I’ll announce full funding measures – costed by the PBO – well before the next election.
By the way, if nothing else it was worth watching the budget reply to see Bronnie totally discommoded by the applauding gallery. She must have hated every moment knowing that she could not toss them out for applauding without showing the whole of Australia what a prejudiced and incompetent presiding officer she is.
There are lots of countries that still value education and have free universities, including: Scotland; Germany; Denmark; Turkey; Brazil etc
TPOF
I think you’re right. Watching 7:30 tonight he seemed to be quite deliberately letting that question draw out.
mexicanbeemer @ 211 – I too am broadly satisfied with our current HECS system. I think it is far more important to increase access to TAFE and in-school vocational education. Not all school leavers wants to go to university, and we have seen over the last few years a massive LNP attack on TAFE budgets. I would be far more supportive of free TAFE education than free universities.
There is no reason why early childhood, primary, secondary, and tertiary educated should be regarded as having different degrees of a public good component. They are all public goods and an individual’s savings or debt-bearing capacity should not be a barrier to consuming them. A relevant filter for tertiary education is evidence of ability to complete the program. Willingess and capacity to graduate with debt should not be a criterion. There is no public purpose to imposing such a filter on potential students. We have HECS for ideological reasons. Economically and socially it is not a useful mechanism.
@swamprat 213
Exactly! Free education can be done, it’s just a matter of what we think is fair, and the choices we make about the sort of society we want to live in.
There is more to the quality of university than just the fees, other factors such as course program structure and research are in my view more important, of course in writing that the current fees are about right, any higher and the worth will start to become questionable.
JimmyDoyle
[I would be far more supportive of free TAFE education than free universities.]
It should not be either/or. All citizens should be supported in education whether its arts, crafts or science and regardless of age.
Shorten today got in a nice cross court volley with his offer of support for various Abbott Budget initiatives and a bipartisan approach to tax reform.
It sort of nullifies a little bit what was working for the Coalition: Shorten as a nixer with no money in his pockets.
Jimmy
That is a good point, TAFE’s provide the high school foundation for so many students even many that go onto University, Tafe’s need greater investment.
[If my memory serves me correctly didn’t Abbott have an absolute shocker in his first budget reply?]
Not a word of substance for three years – and that with the possibility of an election at any time given the precarious state of the minority government in the Parliament.
Nicholas
There is a clear difference, early education is vital to the child’s future life opportunities, University is still optional depending on career aim.
swamprat @ 213 – Turkey and Brazil would have far smaller proportions of their students graduating high school, let alone going on to university. Scotland is flush with oil money, as well as receiving considerable subsidies from the rest of the UK. And if the ALP could actually convince Australians to accept Northern European levels of taxation then we could have free education, free healthcare, the NBN, and an East Coast high speed rail link!
JimmuyDoyle
[Scotland is flush with oil money, as well as receiving considerable subsidies from the rest of the UK. ]
Nonsense.
All Scottish “oil” money goes to the Westmonster bankers and their lackeys.
If you include the “oil” money Scotland is a net contributor to the UK. Not subsidised.
Scotland has free university because it is prepared to fund it and sees it as a vital expression of its cultural values.
swamprat @ 219 – indeed it shouldn’t be either/or but in a age of deficit/surplus fetishism and a general preference for lower taxation, placing a priority on TAFE education, which heavily focuses on teaching practical skills quickly and job placement, is far better value for money than free university education, especially given that a far greater proportion of TAFE students come from lower socio-economic backgrounds.
University-educated people are vital to the entire society. That makes university education a public good.
Well, either that or he’s just winging it ;).
Well I thought I’d check out the online commercial TV channels’ reactions to Shorten’s Budget Reply speech.
.Channel 9 had it 4th on their list, after #1 story was negative reaction to the COALition’s self rorting.
.Channel 10 also led with the rorting by COALition ministers and also had Johnny Depp’s doggies.
No mention of Shorten’s speech.
.Channel 7 didn’t mention Shorten either.
Perhaps this is relevant to the theme of ‘cutting through”?
Nicholas
I’m sure corporate types see themselves as vital 😉
Charging a fee doesn’t take away from the benefits of a degree, the current fee levels are as high as they need to be.
JimmyDoyle
I hope you realise that Scotland has no control over its oil revenue (unlike Norway).
DN @ 214
I didn’t watch 7.30, preferring Luke Nguyen in the UK instead. Nice to know that my analysis is along the right lines.
It occurs to me that Bill Shorten is really doing Abbott’s head in. He is absolutely playing his own game and refusing to take up each and every invitation from Abbott (like the one today) to play Abbott’s rules (the ones that tell the MSM what to ask and say – as they did even when the Coalition was in opposition).
If you see the period between elections as some kind of marathon, Shorten and the people advising him are running their own race to the finish line with things very carefully worked out. 18 months in, there has hardly been a whisper of disquiet – I’m almost tempted to think that the business with making same sex marriage a non-conscience vote was raised specifically to relieve the tension of a closed leadership group having to measure out their fire against the Liberals so they peak at the right time.
I apologise to anyone who reads my post for all the mixed sporting metaphors. But you get what I mean, I hope.
[Scotland has free university because it is prepared to fund it and sees it as a vital expression of its cultural values.]
Salad is expensive. It’s free uni, or salad. The Scot’s chose free uni.
Scotland (and Germany) also have had much lower rates of population growth over the last two decades, and as such have had to build significantly less new infrastructure.
This is our salad vs Uni choice, and we decided to spend revenue on infrastructure (although we might have done with even more).
LU
[This is our salad vs Uni choice, and we decided to spend revenue on infrastructure (although we might have done with even more).]
No idea what you mean? Salad??
Education is a fundamental infrastrucure, I think.
Germany has the highest reception of refugees in Europe, i think.
psyclaw… bit of a reach. Which is a greater “flying in the face of objective evidence” – thinking this guy did well in an interview, or supporting JG’s tenability in 2013?
To anyone who argues the latter, i could just write them off with some pithy insult and feel v smug about it. Lets just say at the most generous, its arguable. And that is my point. Play the ball and stop calling the man a troll when you dont agree.
Fredex @ 229
[Perhaps this is relevant to the theme of ‘cutting through”?]
Indeed. To use another (non-sporting) metaphor, this Opposition knows that there is no use in using much powder at this stage of the electoral cycle when the only thing you could do with that would cut through to the commercial media is blowing yourself up.
This is the most destructive Australian government in my lifetime. Having failed miserably to do any damage to the Shorten Labor Opposition, it has resorted to destroying the only other politicians readily to hand – themselves.
Latest example: not only labelling women who supplement any work-provided maternity leave with the basic level Commonwealth payment as double dippers and rorters – but then discovering that the spouses of the Finance Minister and the Assistant Treasurer were among the ranks of those labelled as rorters and double dippers.
With Labor not raising the hue and cry over this sort of self-destruction, they are letting it sink into the public consciousness. Like the Prince Philip fiasco, there comes a point where the spin is so obviously off-course that the broad public see right through it. In those situations, they don’t need an Opposition leader to reinforce what they are thinking when they have their friends, family and workmates doing the job.
Labor can aim higher and talk about the future (good one that given Abbott’s obsession to recreate the 1960s in 2015).
Swamprat @ 225 – the Barnett Formula that the UK treasury uses to divvy up taxation funding to England, Wales, Scotland and NI has long been noted to give disproportionately more to Scotland, which is at least partially attributed to oil revenue. In any case, Scotland has long been able to sustain higher public expenditure than its taxation revenue can entirely justify. Given that an independent Scotland would be heavily dependant on North Sea oil, how long do you think Scotland could maintain free education in the face of fluctuating oil prices?
[University-educated people are vital to the entire society. That makes university education a public good.]
Lots of things are a public good and the public doesn’t 100% fund them.
[218
mexicanbeemer
There is more to the quality of university than just the fees, other factors such as course program structure and research are in my view more important, of course in writing that the current fees are about right, any higher and the worth will start to become questionable.]
Indeed. We would get better value for money if we focused further public spending in universities on increasing graduation rates, building facilities, improving student services, and most importantly, in reducing tutorial class sizes – which would require a considerable increase in teaching staff. Additionally, providing government subsidised student accommodation and textbooks would be far and away the best thing that could be done for students. All of this would have a more immediate impact on the quality of university education than the blunt instrument of making university free.
Expat
You are obviously very unaware of ModLib’s modus operandi over time.
It is impossible to “play the ball” with her.
She makes that her strategy, by changing the ball and the goal posts. After some experience in attempting discussion with her, I usually write about her posts and engage her infrequently.
But lest you gain the view that I am in anyway concerned about this, I will desist from further comment about the bleedin obvious.
Mexicanbeemer
Re: university fees
You are aware of how price signals work and the theory on using taxation to bring the broadest benefits to society?
It basically goes like this.. Put price signals (taxes) on things you want less of (smoking, drinking, junk food, pollution) and make things you want more of (education, health care, fresh food) cheaper. Given the gradual removal of jobs in the economy that don’t need a university education owing to international and technological forces there seems to be wide agreement that we’d be better off with more graduates not less.
TPOF
You make it all sound so smoothly inevitable.
[This is the most destructive Australian government in my lifetime. Having failed miserably to do any damage to the Shorten Labor Opposition, it has resorted to destroying the only other politicians readily to hand – themselves.]
All very good. But I assume you think that no one remembers the 2007-2013 nonsense, which could only be described as 5 years of Labor narcissist onanism.
I would have thought, with so many right wing careerist wankers in the ALP, an outbreak of onanism would have a higher probability than anything else.
I think the ALP should apologise for giving us this Government of primary school bullies.
[Lots of things are a public good and the public doesn’t 100% fund them.]
Looking back on my misspent early 20s I think it is useful to have a HECS price signal for uni students. It is not good – in fact it is terrible – to turn HECS into a funding solution for the budget though.
I like Shorten’s proposal – but it needs to be targeted to those areas where there is a particular long term shortage. So not just science and maths degrees – but science and maths degrees which lead to teaching – with HECS write-off over a number of years (say 4 or 5) as a teacher.
I have no problems overall with careful targeting of budget savings measures – for example, there might have been a case for means testing paid parental leave. But demonising people for using it when it was clearly set up to apply to those people (including the spouses of Freydenberg and Cormann) is just plain crap.
HECS / HELP fees actually act as a drag on the economy as they reduce the spending power of individuals when they have the greatest need to spend… To start businesses, buy accommodation, raise children etc. If allowed to spend in this manner the boost to the economy would be greater overall.
The Scots have education excellence in their blood.
Given a choice I always go for a doctor educated in Edinburgh.
Dio excepted, of course.
Luke Hulm
Out of respect to my wonderful Macro lecturer yes I do know what a price signal is.
This is why I would like textbooks to be included in the HECS loan, I know from my University bookshop that it wasn’t unusual to see a textbook on the unit subject but not included on the required booklist and you would look at it and think that would be helpful both during study and for future referencing yet the book would be $150 plus.
[I think the ALP should apologise for giving us this Government of primary school bullies.]
I don’t think Labor should apologise for anything. Personally, here on PB, because it is just another opportunity to launch a round of Rudd-Gillard wars.
More generally, though, because Labor has done a great job of not dumping on the achievements of those years and there were many substantial achievements despite the popular right and left wing memes about it being a period of wasted opportunity.
There is some truth to the claim that Labor lost in 1998 because it did not have the guts to defend the Keating Government. This opposition is not making the same mistake. It has been very careful not to disown the RGR governments, lest it reinforce the rubbish claims of Abbott and his mob and hands the initiative back to them.
By the way swamprat, at the moment under Abbott, it is pretty smoothly inevitable as far as I can see.
That does not mean everything can’t be blown out of the water by another Tampa, followed rapidly by another 9/11.
But at this stage the trajectory of both parties towards their destinies seems to be as predictable as any I have seen in watching Australian politics.
JimmyDoyle
[Given that an independent Scotland would be heavily dependant on North Sea oil, how long do you think Scotland could maintain free education in the face of fluctuating oil prices?]
Yes oil prices are fluctuating but the Scottish Government wants Scotland to develop its non-carbon enrgy.
Scotland is the wettest and windiest Country in Europe. It has greatest potential for non-carbon energy.
The Scottish Government wants oil revenues put in a Scottish wealth fund, like Norway. Currently Westmonster takes all oil revenue and saves none of it. Cwertainly nothing is saved for Scotland.
The Scottish Government sees education as a major industry.