BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

Very little doing on the polling front in the week before the budget, except for one further piece of evidence that Tony Abbott’s personal standing is on the mend.

This week’s reading of BludgerTrack comes in 0.4% higher for Labor on two-party preferred than last weeks, but 0.3% of that shift is down to an overdue recalibration of pollster bias adjustments based on observation of recent state election results, which I’ll hopefully find time to discuss in more detail next week. The column on the sidebar showing change on last week reflects the result of the model as recalibrated, and not what was actually published. As such, it provides an accurate reflection of the impact of the one poll to be published in this week’s pre-budget lull, namely a result from Essential Research that was very slightly better for Labor than it looked. The seat projection has Labor two higher than the published result from last week, accounting for one seat in Queensland and one in South Australia. The recalibration has no bearing on the leadership results, for which Essential Research this week provided some extra data. This confirmed Tony Abbott’s very narrow lead as preferred prime minister, while perhaps suggesting a levelling off in the recent decline in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

371 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

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  1. [Must be heart breaking – and stomach turning…]
    Indeed, and I am guessing ausdavo is not a spring chicken anymore. So starting all over again career wise may not be as easy as it once was.

    Newsagents around here are looking a lot barer and poorer of late. Relying heavily on Tatts sales, I suspect, and probably even getting increasingly screwed there too.

    Must plead some guilt in that decline, seeing as I stopped buying print media about a decade back, after nearly a quarter century of heavy patronage. About the same time I got internet.

  2. [349

    I had to smile as while ABC local was interviewing Wyatt the interviewer ask the predictable question of “Well, what would Labor do?”]

    Such a question provides an excellent opportunity for Labor to give the true and correct answer: “Labor will run sound public finance. We always do. We know the community relies on the Government and we will run a prudent budget while faithfully serving the needs of the people.”

    Labor should say this again and again. It’s a true story.

  3. ReachTel will not have the post-budget shredding factored yet. So still a poor base to start from for the government.

  4. I’m not happy. Earlier today, this report in The Age included the text of a letter from Greg Hunt, revealing his technique of not addressing the question asked and spruiking his Direct Action debacle. It seems that this has now been cut from the report. Instead we have this:
    [A spokesman for federal Environment Minister Greg Hunt did not directly address questions on lifting the state ban, saying instead the government was in the process of finalising negotiations with Labor.]
    [Victoria wants to establish its own target to boost renewable energy the Andrews government has declared, but it first needs Canberra to lift legal barriers preventing it from doing so.

    Following moves to cut back the national goal for clean energy, the Victorian government has urged its federal counterparts to remove federal rules stopping states and territories introducing their own similar schemes.

    If that occurs the Andrews government has for the first time committed to reintroducing a renewables target for Victoria, which it says would top up the national scheme.

    A government spokeswoman said the state target would seek to lift renewable energy’s share of the Victorian power generation mix from about 13 per cent now to about 20 per cent in 2020. But a definitive goal would be set in consultation with industry, she said.

    Victoria shut down its renewable energy target in 2009 when a national scheme was expanded to ensure at least 20 per cent of Australia’s power came from clean energy by 2020. States were then barred from introducing their own similar schemes.

    But the state government says recent moves to cut the national scheme has prompted it to again establish its own target or otherwise face missing out on investments and jobs.]

  5. Poor Josh Thompson opps sorry meant Frydenberg.

    This is a classic case of a government introducing a change which could be acceptable then they sell it by using aggressive language against those who had rightly been using the system as it legally stood only too see it blow up in their face.

    The moral of story is too be more careful with words which might be cool in 2GB/ACA land but will sound like fingernails down a blackboard to everyone else.

  6. Last night (Reachtel polling) is likely to be the sweetest for the Budget.

    Reachtel is beginning to be my favorite. 🙂

    I like Newspoll because the way it bounces around (usually) seems to be well aligned with political fortunes, but those 51-49 results so soon after Abbott was frying where too much to swallow.

  7. [277

    Just me @232

    I know where you are coming from and I agree with you about the “Only the Libs can manage the economy” crap which people just seem to accept.]

    Continuously blows my mind that, for whatever combination of internal or external reasons, Labor seem unable to sell the clear fact that they are at least no worse overall than the Libs at economic management, and are also arguably much better at long term social and economic planning in particular.

  8. [I like Newspoll because the way it bounces around (usually) seems to be well aligned with political fortunes, but those 51-49 results so soon after Abbott was frying where too much to swallow.]

    Might have been too much for NewsCorpse to swallow too, given they and Newspoll have since parted company.

  9. Actually, it has not dawned on most in Sandgropia just how bad this Barnett/Nahan budget is for WA.

    While some of the broad brush stuff has been around for awhile, some of the detailed stuff is very sobering indeed.

    On ABC they have a summary, one of which, when it comes to Seniors, is that they can now travel free on public transport between 7 pm and 6 am in Perth.

    That should get all the oldies jiving in Northbridge (Perth’s so-called entertainment/cafe area). This venue is really safe for oldies as it is only the kids who get bashed up in the nightclubs.

    With electricity and water due to go up over 4% so much for both Barnett’s last election promise (‘in line with inflation’ said he) and the bountiful $550 cheque from Abbott still awaiting delivery after the repeal of the CT to “reduce electricity costs” here.

    But, of course, while these would be labelled and shouted from the roof tops as “broken promises” if Labor were in office, the apologists are kind of shrugging their collective shoulders with a kind of “Well, what would Labor do?” as a response.

  10. We can thank the greens for that (and I say that as someone who has some regard for the greens). That ceiling would have been very handy right now to expose this mob for the economic wreckers and hypocrites they really are.

    I still don’t understand why the greens would have done that.

    The debt ceiling was a dumb piece of political theatre with no financial purpose. The need for legislation to appropriate funds is a sufficient political check on government spending. A debt ceiling is a meaningless construct.

  11. Shortens budget reply was atrocious.

    From the bused in Labor true believers, to the lack of any real policy detail from Shorten.

    But what was completely inexcusable was Bill Shortens sincerity. You can tell even he doesn’t believe a word he says. He is a Conman, a Shyster, a Chameleon… he says his words without conviction and as if doing a badly produced broadway play. He is completely unbelievable, even young children could see through him.

  12. Millinenial,


    Just like you, I and many others spend months if not years lurking in the background, regularly and avidly pouring over the wealth of accurate information, and highly thought out opinion provided in this place by many, many people.

    Eventually, some of us imbibe enough Dutch courage to post a comment or respond to something another has said and hope it is received in a favorable manner.

    To Lizzie and Guytaur,

    Good on you both for welcoming Millinenial to this forum, for many years I have held the opinion that you are the warmest, most honest people here.

    As for the rest of you, and in particular those who ignored and/or talked over our newcomer for the last twenty six hours…

    If you fail to understand why thoughtful and intelligent people are leaving in droves and don’t come back…?

    If you ever wonder why it is the same seemingly clever bunch can’t attract a new point of view that didn’t come from ModLib or TrueBlueArseFlappingintheWind…?

    Or, why this blog is commonly referred to in certain other likeminded fora as “The Isolation Ward”…?

    As the almost late, and somewhat great Federal member for dinosaur parks, over-eating and potential quintuple heart bypasses once famously said:

    “I have no more time for you Madam, Goodbye.”

    Peace out Bludger’s.

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