BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

Very little doing on the polling front in the week before the budget, except for one further piece of evidence that Tony Abbott’s personal standing is on the mend.

This week’s reading of BludgerTrack comes in 0.4% higher for Labor on two-party preferred than last weeks, but 0.3% of that shift is down to an overdue recalibration of pollster bias adjustments based on observation of recent state election results, which I’ll hopefully find time to discuss in more detail next week. The column on the sidebar showing change on last week reflects the result of the model as recalibrated, and not what was actually published. As such, it provides an accurate reflection of the impact of the one poll to be published in this week’s pre-budget lull, namely a result from Essential Research that was very slightly better for Labor than it looked. The seat projection has Labor two higher than the published result from last week, accounting for one seat in Queensland and one in South Australia. The recalibration has no bearing on the leadership results, for which Essential Research this week provided some extra data. This confirmed Tony Abbott’s very narrow lead as preferred prime minister, while perhaps suggesting a levelling off in the recent decline in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

371 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

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  2. So from a polling perspective, the question this week is – will there be a budget bounce for the Coalition, and if so, how much?

    My 2 cents worth – yes, there will be a poll bounce. Unlikely to get to 50-50, although there will be one rogue poll that suggests it. Reasoning – the electorate is tainted by the broken promises and lies, and will not move much unless the money’s in their hands.

  5. guytaur, I agree with Richard di Natale – the Senate reform legislation is the canary in the coal mine. When it’s put forward, the game has started.

  8. “@peterjukes: Small business owners – bamboozled. Cameron promised 35% SME procurement. Real figure around 5%. Big corps dominate. @ChukaUmunna”

  10. Wasn’t it 78 seats to Labor last week? I’m assuming that has been retrospectively changed to 81 as per your “bias adjustment” above.

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The pundits are latching onto Hockey’s unrealistic growth projections. Mark Kenny is one of them.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-2015-joe-hockeys-growth-message-is-spend-spend-spend-20150513-gh10y7.html
    Peter Martin says they’re just plain wrong!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-2015-glacial-wage-growth-puts-budget-forecasts-in-doubt-20150513-gh0s5l.html
    As does this article.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-2015-warning-unrealised-rosy-assumptions-could-lead-to-blowout-20150513-gh0qdo.html
    A glance at the headlines in for the AFR’s budget stories will tell you a lot.
    http://www.afr.com/opinion
    Taxation by stealth – bracket creep and the budget.
    https://theconversation.com/taxation-by-stealth-bracket-creep-and-the-budget-41674
    Health groups have been kept in the dark about the $2b on cuts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-2015-health-groups-kept-in-the-dark-on-funding-cuts-20150513-gh0asz.html
    This ACT Liberal MP is going after Abbott over the treatment of women in this budget.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-2015-act-liberal-appalled-at-budget-measures-affecting-women-20150513-gh0ifn.html
    Arthur Sinodinos tells his colleagues to moderate their language over mothers who will lose their parenting allowances.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/13/arthur-sinodinos-tells-liberals-its-not-a-good-look-having-a-go-at-young-mothers
    Here’s a nice parody of Hockey giving his budget speech.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/joe-hockeys-real-budget-speech,7705
    A professor of public health calls for a judge to be appointed to examine all the bizarre claims about wind farms. the article is well worth reading.
    https://theconversation.com/lets-appoint-a-judge-to-investigate-bizarre-wind-farm-health-claims-41612

  13. Section 2 . . .

    A punter’s guide to how the government got your money.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/05/13/feel-youre-being-taxed-death-punters-guide-how-bastards-get-your-money
    An early emergence of rorting opportunity for “Tony’s Tradies”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-2015-art-gallery-jumps-on-20000-small-business-tax-writeoff-20150513-gh0lm6.html
    Malcolm Maiden gives some advice to Bill Shorten for his budget in reply speech.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/bill-shorten-should-bite-the-infrastructure-bullet-in-budget-reply-20150513-gh0wz5.html
    Foreign aid – the AT to be tapped.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/foreign-aid-the-soft-target-20150513-gh0axf.html
    The Australian Brick Party?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/glenn-lazarus-becomes-latest-crossbencher-to-form-his-own-party-20150513-gh0m1e.html
    Societal disintegration occurring here?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/violence-continues-as-15yearold-student-threatens-others-with-a-brick-at-walgetts-only-high-school-20150513-gh0zkh.html
    Does our heir to the throne have a screw loose?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/how-prince-charles-badgered-tony-blair-secret-letters-known-as-black-spider-memos-revealed-20150513-gh159p.html
    A nice examination of the “No Dickhead” rule in sport by Peter FitzSimons.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/the-fitz-files/why-kevin-pietersen-is-the-exception-to-the-no-dickhead-rule-20150513-gh0z3e.html
    Elizabeth Farrelly calls out the weakness of Abbott under fire from The Parrot.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/feckless-regulators-let-developers-run-riot-on-sydneys-public-land-20150513-gh0cwm.html
    Professor Michael Brown sees Lomborg and Maurice Newman as “do nothing” soul mates.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/climate-inaction-the-one-point-of-consensus-20150513-gh0d5z.html

  14. victoria

    I

    SMEs to benefit from public procurement rules
    Rules affecting complex public-private partnerships will be affected by a revision of EU rules.
    European Voice
    By NICHOLAS HIRST 15/4/14, 9:55 PM CET Updated 23/4/14, 7:19 PM CET
    A revision of public procurement rules come into force on Thursday (17 April) that should make it easier for small and medium-sized companies (SMEs) to win public contracts, and reduce the red tape often associated with public procurement. The legislation will also clarify the rules affecting complex public-private partnerships, and concessions – where private-sector companies operate public infrastructure or provide public services.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/smes-to-benefit-from-public-procurement-rules/

  15. Section 3 . . .

    When is the reality of dignified dying going to be accepted? When the likes of Fred Nile are out of it?
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/disobedience-a-path-to–clarity-in-endoflife-law-20150513-ggzgtl.html
    The East West Ling tug of war continues.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-has-no-plans-to-hand-back-cash-earmarked-for-the-east-west-link-20150513-gh0epa.html
    Andrew Dyson with Hockey’s “green shoots”.

    A great job on the budget by Alan Moir.

    Some budget perspective from David Pope.

    Mark Knight suggests Hockey reckons he’s on a winner with small business.

    One of David Rowe’s best! Have a look at the cement mixer.

    Bill Leak and the sage of entitlement.

  19. “@annajhenderson: Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce on Johnny Depp’s dogs “it’s time that Pistol and Boo buggered off back to the United States” #auspol”

  21. I have huge expectations of Shorten’s reply to budget. He needs to set out why this govt has wasted two years of progress in ths country

  23. victoria

    I expect Shorten to reset the narrative. The most that can be said of this budget is that it is small business friendly and the media is saying it loudly.

    The reason I expect Shorten to reset the narrative is he did it last budget reply. It also means with a good speech in a campaign it will be Labor setting the agenda not the LNP.

    This is why I expect it. The only question is that like you will my expectations be met?

  24. From Lateline (thanks, victoria).

    Frydenberg:

    But you have to understand that if more people go out and buy a ute for their business in the agriculture sector or more people go and buy a fridge or equipment for their local restaurant, then this will actually have a positive spinoff in other parts of the economy. It’ll create jobs for those people who manufacture that equipment.

    Dosh Josh realise that the ute, the fridge and the microwave are all manufactured abroad???

  25. Morning all. Thanks victoria for the Lateline link. Am absolutely gobsmacked at this:

    TONY JONES: And it may well do that, but let’s just look – let’s do some theoretical sums, if you like. Take the example that’s in your own Budget document: “Sam’s company goes out and buys a new rack oven for $17,000. His company will then get back $4,900,” nearly $5,000 on his tax, that’s correct, isn’t it?

    JOSH FRYDENBERG: Well he’s going to benefit, of course, because he can writeoff that full amount in the first year where otherwise he would have had to write it off over multiple years.

    TONY JONES: But in that year, the Government has to give him back nearly $5,000?

    JOSH FRYDENBERG: Well it’s actually coming off his profits, and look – and his tax payable.

    TONY JONES: It’s revenue the Government would otherwise have got that you would have expected to get and now you’ve got to give it back.

    JOSH FRYDENBERG: Sure.

    TONY JONES: So that’s $5,000 per person – correct?

    JOSH FRYDENBERG: Well it’s revenue that is foregone, but at the same time, maybe that purchase wouldn’t have taken place. And one other good example where we’ve given an instant asset writeoff, if you like, is around for agriculture for new fences. Previously if a farmer had put in a $25,000 fence, he would have had to write it off over 30 years. Now he can write it all off in one year.

    TONY JONES: Yeah, sure. So ho many small – we’ll stick with the Sam case. How many small businesses are there like Sam’s? How many in the country?

    JOSH FRYDENBERG: Well you know there’s over two million small businesses …

    TONY JONES: Right.

    JOSH FRYDENBERG: … and they’re employing 4.5 million people, so it’s the engine room.

    TONY JONES: All I want is the number. So, if every one of those two million did what Sam did, that’s $10 billion you’ve written off in your tax, isn’t it?

    JOSH FRYDENBERG: No, look, you can try those sort of games tonight, Tony.

    TONY JONES: It’s not a game, this is mathematics. This is simple economics, really, isn’t it? If every one of them did what Sam did, that’s how much it would cost in foregone revenue.

    When I see Liberals like Frydenberg, Morrison, Hockey, Abbott, I’m reminded of this tweet from Poss on budget night:

    Possum @Pollytics · May 12
    Budgets, public policy and governance is hard. The modern breed of Liberal seems to think it ought be easy through the power of sheer hubris

  26. I watched Lateline last night and gobsmacking is indeed the work Confessions. The video has more impact than the transcript of course. To me Frydenburg seemed wooden through the interview.

  28. What a disgracefully ignorant statement from Frydenberg! Talk about being out of touch!

    But you have to understand that if more people go out and buy a ute for their business in the agriculture sector or more people go and buy a fridge or equipment for their local restaurant, then this will actually have a positive spinoff in other parts of the economy. It’ll create jobs for those people who manufacture that equipment.

  29. I hope Shorten makes plenty out of the Frydenberg statement. It is just another example of the shallowness of this ideologically driven mob.

  30. lizzie

    Precisely the point. What do we manufacture here. This is to assist the likes of Harvey Norman etc. whose share price went up yesterday. Surprise surprise

  32. The retailers might be happy with the government for 5 minutes. However when they look at the $0.81 of our dollar to the US they will be back to we’ll be round very quickly

  33. But you have to understand that if more people go out and buy a ute for their business in the agriculture sector or more people go and buy a fridge or equipment for their local restaurant, then this will actually have a positive spinoff in other parts of the economy. It’ll create jobs for those people who manufacture that equipment.

    Flat wage growth and people already up to their eye balls in debt means limited capacity to buy the goods/ serivices of those small businesses.

  34. dave

    As I stated yesterday, small businesses already run huge overdrafts. In order to right off these expenses, they will first need to buy the stuff, most likely using borrowed funds

  35. “Slip sliding away slip sliding away – I fear a third day of fundamental injustice is looming!”

    Will Shorten last to the election… I notice Plebesek is taking pot shots at him with policy jibes such as the gay marriage thing

  39. The govt may as well just give everyone a stimulus cheque. At least everyone gets the benefit of it

    I wonder, as they sat pondering how to effectively bribe voters back with the budget, whether this thought occurred to them. And if so, how they must’ve been kicking themselves for talking down those ‘Rudd cheques’ for all these years.

  40. “Morning all. Thanks victoria for the Lateline link. Am absolutely gobsmacked at this:”

    Tony Jones is a dickhead.

    The Government isn’t “giving you” anything by you reducing your tax bill… YOU are “giving” the Government less of your own money.

    Tony Jones would know this if he ran a small business rather than a nice ABC presenters income.

  41. I am re-posting this from a new overnight poster on the previous thread in case anyone would like to answer (I, of course, haven’t a clue).

    Millinenial

    Posted Thursday, May 14, 2015 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    Hello, fellow midnight posters!

    I’ve been regularly following this site since July 2013; and in those 2-ish years here, I’ve never seen such a fascinating online community that is Poll Bludger.

    I’ve decided to make an account because there’s been something bugging me about this so-called ‘Netflix Tax’. As to my knowledge, this is basically a policy which applies G.S.T. (i.e. 10% on a price of goods) on online purchases sites such as eBay, and Amazon; and digital distribution centres such as iTunes. (Although apparently iTunes already charges G.S.T. on its services.)

    My questions:
    Will there any legislature the Government has that either discourages or compensates people if online purchasing sites or digital distribution centres try to charge extra for this ‘tax’? (Like how certain companies tried to push prices up by trying to blame it on the carbon tax.)

    Also, will the A.C.C.C. have the power to punish online companies that try to charge extra, even if they are located overseas? (Assuming that there isn’t any legislative that prevents online companies to charge more for their goods.)

    I’ve tried to find more information on this, but so far I’m coming up empty. Perhaps a more tenacious (and more tech-savvy) poster can answer my questions?

  43. fess

    No doubt this govt is now attempting to stimulate the economy. This is the same mob who said that the GFC didnt even occur. I really dislike this mob

  44. Malcolm Maiden’s advice to Shorten:
    “Bill Shorten should bite the infrastructure bullet in budget reply”

    Shorten would, of course, be attacked by the government if he proposes taking on more debt at a time when the economy is generating budget deficits.

    However, infrastructure spending would create growth that enabled Australia to grow its way more quickly into surplus and investments could be funded by special purpose infrastructure bonds that carried multi-decade maturities.

    There is a plausible argument to be made that money raised at what are still phenomenally low interest rates and invested in infrastructure projects using guidelines that the Productivity Commission has developed should not be regarded by ratings agencies as a long-term structural burden that endangers Australia’s AAA credit rating.

    If Shorten doesn’t pull the infrastructure rabbit out of his hat on Thursday night, his budget reply will probably be unexciting.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/bill-shorten-should-bite-the-infrastructure-bullet-in-budget-reply-20150513-gh0wz5.html

  45. David Cameron is facing diplomatic isolation and his first backbench rebellion over plans to scrap the Human Rights Act and exempt the Government from implementing unfavourable European Court of Human Rights rulings.

    Mr Cameron has made the abolition of Labour’s 1998 legislation a key part of his 100-day policy offensive and the measure is expected to be included in the Queen’s Speech later this month.

    But the Prime Minister is already facing a revolt from a growing number of his backbenchers over the proposals

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-faces-tory-backbench-rebellion-over-plans-to-scrap-the-human-rights-act-10248313.html

  46. Chuka Umunna is the last thing Labour needs – a pro-austerity MP who calls people ‘trash’

    Labour now finds itself at a crossroads. After two defeats in a row, it needs a new leader who will make it electable once again.

    The current bookies’ favourite is Chuka Umunna, a rising star in the party, Shadow Business Secretary, and MP for Streatham in London. And after announcing that he would be running yesterday, his odds are looking even better.

    He’s been touted as the “British Obama”, (although it’s allegedly a tagline that came from his own office) but in reality, he’s the last thing Labour needs.

    Instead of trying to engage with the voters Labour is meant to represent, Umunna says he wants to be “on the side of those who are doing well”.

    Chuka’s stance on immigration also makes him unfit to be Labour leader. Chuka’s stance on immigration also makes him unfit to be Labour leader.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/chuka-umunna-is-the-last-thing-labour-needs–a-proausterity-leader-who-calls-people-trash-10247245.html

  47. Premature post above

    Despite Umunna’s parents being Nigerian ex-pats (or as the Right likes to call them, “immigrants”), he has already made clear he wants to see the rules tightened for EU citizens not in work

  48. Perhaps you missed this bit, TBA:

    Tony Jones

    …..If every one of them did what Sam did, that’s how much it would cost in foregone revenue.

    Note, forgone tax revenue….

    I really shouldn’t feed the troll, should I.

  50. nappin @48:

    Probably not, no. But it does get hard to simply ignore such blatant dissimulation, disingenuousness and dishonesty, does it not?

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