ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

Reaction to the government’s second budget has been mediocre at best, according to the first of what promises to be a flurry of new opinion polls.

ReachTEL has leapt into the post-budget field on behalf of the Seven Network, with an automated phone poll conducted last night from 3180 respondents. It records a slight improvement for the Coalition compared with the pollster’s earlier holding pattern, with the Coalition primary vote on 41.1% (up 1.3%), Labor on 38.3% (down 1.0%), the Greens on 12.1% (up 0.2%) and Palmer United on 2.2% (steady). Interestingly, the poll provides breakdowns by respondents’ employment status, which I might take a closer look at later in comparison with past post-election survey data. The budget doesn’t get a huge endorsement, with 16.4% rating they will be better off, 30.3% worse off and 53.3% about the same.

Contrary to other recent polling, this result gives Bill Shorten a clear lead on preferred prime minister of 57.2-42.8, with the important methodological distinction that respondents to this poll were not allowed an “uncommitted” option. Questions on leadership approval provide more evidence of Tony Abbott’s ongoing improvement, while Bill Shorten’s “satisfactory” result is up at the expense of both favourable and unfavourable responses. A three-way question on who has done the best job promoting the budget finds only 11.7% favouring Tony Abbott, with the rest divided between Joe Hockey (44.8%) and Scott Morrison (43.4%). Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,059 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. Massive sample size too.

    Thought there’d be a bigger shift towards 50-50. See what happens after a week.

  7. It seems as though Reachtel is now becoming somewhat of a trend setter in the polls.

    And this after all the flag waving…..and no time for people to really swallow the budget implications.

    Don’t think the news from Sandgropia is going to get any better for Abbott either.

  8. [with the important methodological difference that respondents were not allowed an “uncommitted” option.]

    Exactly. The result here seems to imply that the main reason for Abbott’s personal poll recovery is that Shorten and Labor have not begun to seriously campaign and offer an alternative set of policies.

    Yesterday and today’s emphasis on abuse (rorters and double dipping) of ordinary people exercising their legal rights shows that Abbott and co cannot help themselves. It’s all they know to descend into abusive divisiveness.

    Provided Labor is able to start carefully and with deliberation ramping itself up from here on as a disciplined alternative this government is gone. Not because Labor has better policies (although I think it does), but because this mob is well below the standard of competence that Australia will accept even from a first term government.

  9. Mikehilliard

    Too true

    The only thing that can save Abbott is him conjuring up international “crises” 24/7 till the next election that will keep all domestic matters off the table.

    Every time domestic politics come to the fore he is on a hiding to nothing, because he is a lying dud (no accidental omission of “e” at the end of last word).

  11. I expect polls like this for the next few cycles as even Chris Berg on the Drum was not impressed by the us of the sort and fraud terms.

    Seems the IPA has more common sense than the LNP.

    We have not even had the Budget reply yet

  12. [The only thing that can save Abbott…]

    Many things can save Abbott. More importantly, many of his backers BELIEVE lots of things can save him and probably most importantly they see donations and Murdoch as having an impact come election time.

    For Bushfire….
    [Phillip Hughes’s death to be subject of independent review, Cricket Australia announces]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-14/phillip-hughes-death-cricket-australia-independent-review/6470400?section=sport

  14. William

    Frigadier Nikolic also jumped to his feet to dob a Labor MP to Bronnie today in QT, completely out of context with what was actually happening at the time.

    Think he has aspirations of high office, perhaps as a new Peter Reith type headkicker/ hardman. Or is it just that he’s a little man.

  17. imacca

    That may be why Joyce inserted himself into the Depportation issue. Great distraction to threaten to kill some puppies.

  20. psyclaw

    He looks like a right little dobber . From WB’s link .

    [In 2012, as the Liberal candidate for the seat of Bass, he was accused of online bullying when he threatened to go to the employers of 13 people who “liked” a satirical story about him posted on Facebook.]

  22. guytaur

    W.A. has no chance. From Wikipedia entry on their treasurer.

    [Mike Nahan …He joined the Institute of Public Affairs…..as a policy director. Between 1995 and 2005 he was Executive Director of the IPA]

  25. guytaur

    Wasn’t he just quoting some survey or other? I think Barnaby was pointing out that that cut no ice in the circs.

  26. poroti

    Yeah from bad to worse unless Christian Porter responsible for most of the spending during the boom is a member of the IPA.

  30. Tradies vs Ladies could be a catchy “zinger” to whack the Budget with.

    [Budget 2015: The Tradies v the Ladies? Really

    Opinion

    By ABC’s Annabel Crabb

    Some of them make me so mad I could spit, writes Annabel Crabb. So you’ll need to read some of this in a shouty voice, please……

    ….In the Red Corner (also the Naughty Corner): Rorting Mum.

    Rorting Mum is a shameless bit of baggage who up until Sunday brazenly accepted, or at least evilly planned to accept, paid parental leave both from her employer and from the Government scheme. ]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-14/crabb-budget-2015-the-tradies-v-the-ladies-really/6470500

  31. “Is it a bit weird to hear Barnaby Joyce refer to Johnny Depp as sexiest man alive?” Isn’t this a bit disrespectful of Dear Leader. Tony knows he is, not Depp. I hope Tony doesn’t follow Kim’s lead.

  34. lizzie

    Yes, because just as Budget 2015 was the make-or-break moment for the Coalition, the Budget reply will be the make-or-break moment for Labor, as Labor’s next course of action will decide which party the public prefers for the next 6 months.

    Good Luck to Bill, but my expectations are high and this speech needs to be brilliant, relatively speaking.

  35. Smh has article on the handouts to business, talk of selling utes to each other for 19,999 to claim deduction and buying a Harley to round up the sheep.

    Bottom line is Abbott is ripping maternity leave off new mums so these rorts can be funded.

    And hockey can join in as he owns investment houses and land.

    If you own an investment property congrats, you are a small business person who can benefit from this

  37. Speers: “There’s no excuse for Oppositions to hold back on policy detail these days”.

    Oh cheers for that David. How convenient.

  45. This is *The One* occasion when abbott has to sit there, shut up and cop what is being dished out.

    All live on TV.

    Enjoy !

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