ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

Reaction to the government’s second budget has been mediocre at best, according to the first of what promises to be a flurry of new opinion polls.

ReachTEL has leapt into the post-budget field on behalf of the Seven Network, with an automated phone poll conducted last night from 3180 respondents. It records a slight improvement for the Coalition compared with the pollster’s earlier holding pattern, with the Coalition primary vote on 41.1% (up 1.3%), Labor on 38.3% (down 1.0%), the Greens on 12.1% (up 0.2%) and Palmer United on 2.2% (steady). Interestingly, the poll provides breakdowns by respondents’ employment status, which I might take a closer look at later in comparison with past post-election survey data. The budget doesn’t get a huge endorsement, with 16.4% rating they will be better off, 30.3% worse off and 53.3% about the same.

Contrary to other recent polling, this result gives Bill Shorten a clear lead on preferred prime minister of 57.2-42.8, with the important methodological distinction that respondents to this poll were not allowed an “uncommitted” option. Questions on leadership approval provide more evidence of Tony Abbott’s ongoing improvement, while Bill Shorten’s “satisfactory” result is up at the expense of both favourable and unfavourable responses. A three-way question on who has done the best job promoting the budget finds only 11.7% favouring Tony Abbott, with the rest divided between Joe Hockey (44.8%) and Scott Morrison (43.4%). Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,059 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Both Bishops looking unhappy. ๐Ÿ™‚ They really dont like just having to sit there and listen attentively as Shorten calls them on their crap.

  2. [Peter van Onselen โ€@vanOnselenP 35s36 seconds ago
    It is only rhetoric of course, but so far Shorten’s reply is powerful and surprisingly similar to last year’s, with passion.]

  3. Bill doing well. For all the criticism over the last couple of years its good to have someone on our side that can stick the knife into the Libs and twist it like this. These are fairly uncompromising fighting words.

  4. [Peter van Onselen โ€@vanOnselenP 46s46 seconds ago
    Shorten is doing a good (political) job of turning this year’s budget into an equally unpopular effort. I wonder if it will take on.]

  5. After a couple of glimpses of the look on Tones’ dial I wish they had a small picture in picture with Abbott’s face during the speech.

  6. Nice partisan gallery, Bronny starting to fume.
    Bill doing well, nicely building to a crescendo here.
    Nice watching Abbott and co having to digest a shit sandwich.
    Tanya getting voluble too.

  7. Shorten has them by the short hairs.

    And it all fits in sooooooooooooo well with the Libs Tax White Paper process doesn’t it??

    Optimism justified. He has slapped the Libs in the face with a challenge they are temperamentally unsuited to face.

    And i think we have heard the last of “small target” strategy. ๐Ÿ™‚

  8. Did I hear right that Labor will reduce small business tax from 30 to 25%?

    Going straight for the heart of the Lib voter.

  9. [ Yes, compare this speech with that of Hockeyโ€™s! Hockey nothing more than a blustering windbag. ]

    Lol! Compare with some of Abbotts budget in reply efforts. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Going to be late. dont care. ๐Ÿ™‚

  10. the coalition look dubmfounded – what Shorten is saying is beyond them, no it is more than that it is better than them!

  11. “…Labor will $500 million smart investment fund to back great ideas and to promote entrepreneurship…”

    Is it just me or has Bill Shorten sounding like Menzies?

  12. [ Has Billy been sneakily hiding his light under a bushel between budget speeches? ๐Ÿ™‚ ]

    He took a little while to get going tonight, but is right in the zone well before the halfway mark. ๐Ÿ™‚

  13. This is a future looking, truly aspirational budget reply. Compared with the actual budget speech, which was narrow, scared, desperate and defined by self interest.

  14. โ€œ@latikambourke: Write off HECS for 100k maths/science students, promises OL Bill Shorten. We’ll encourage more women to study in these fields.โ€

  15. Yes I like the science students HECS write off. Wonder if do a science degree part time under this policy.
    Great stuff labor, now follow this evening’s effort and ram these points home.
    Expect Paul Murray on sky to be apoplectic later…

  16. And contrast with Abbott still hanging onto that blue tie, years after wearing it repeatedly wore out as some kind of statement to like-minded men.

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