ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

Reaction to the government’s second budget has been mediocre at best, according to the first of what promises to be a flurry of new opinion polls.

ReachTEL has leapt into the post-budget field on behalf of the Seven Network, with an automated phone poll conducted last night from 3180 respondents. It records a slight improvement for the Coalition compared with the pollster’s earlier holding pattern, with the Coalition primary vote on 41.1% (up 1.3%), Labor on 38.3% (down 1.0%), the Greens on 12.1% (up 0.2%) and Palmer United on 2.2% (steady). Interestingly, the poll provides breakdowns by respondents’ employment status, which I might take a closer look at later in comparison with past post-election survey data. The budget doesn’t get a huge endorsement, with 16.4% rating they will be better off, 30.3% worse off and 53.3% about the same.

Contrary to other recent polling, this result gives Bill Shorten a clear lead on preferred prime minister of 57.2-42.8, with the important methodological distinction that respondents to this poll were not allowed an “uncommitted” option. Questions on leadership approval provide more evidence of Tony Abbott’s ongoing improvement, while Bill Shorten’s “satisfactory” result is up at the expense of both favourable and unfavourable responses. A three-way question on who has done the best job promoting the budget finds only 11.7% favouring Tony Abbott, with the rest divided between Joe Hockey (44.8%) and Scott Morrison (43.4%). Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,059 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. It’s a bit Greens-lite, but no complaints there. “Livable cities” “Science and technology” “Free education”. Tune in to Di Natale’s budget reply in the Senate right now to hear what Bill should have said.

  2. Depends, if the student works hard and is able to pass every unit then as an reward maybe righting off the HECS.

  3. Well well – it will be interesting as usual to see how that is reported I expect not objectively.

    Lipstick on a pig is how ABC are reporting how Shorten describes Abbott’s budget fair call I reckon !!!

  4. I wake up over here and glance through the overnight posts. One of the more absurd is Psyclaw at 77 endoresed by Bemused i think.

    [what word would best describe an intelligent someone who claims against all objective evidence that F did very well?

    I think the word begins with “t”.]

    On that logic, everyone on this site continuing to support Julia G in 2012-3 when all objective evidence showed that she was leading the party towards a disasterous defeat are also trolls, including at least one of these two themselves!!

    Myopic support for your side is what it is. Happiness displays some for his side, and the mega majority do likewise for their side. That’s not being a troll… otherwise this is a majority troll site.

    Nice to hear Shorten doing well, but of course will place greater weight on its reception out there in voterland than amongst the intelligentsia here

  5. LOL!

    [Finance Minister Mathias Cormann and Assistant Treasurer Josh Frydenberg have conceded their families benefited from the current paid parental leave system where parents can claim benefits from both their employer and the government.

    The government has been under fire for saying receiving two sets of entitlements is “double-dipping” and “a rort” as it moves to prevent families from accessing two schemes.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-ministers-admit-their-families-benefited-from-two-parental-leave-schemes-20150514-gh1q7a.html

    One day on and things are unravelling.

  6. Hm Happiness, u concurrung that Shorten did effectively – thats an interesting marker coming from your side of the fence LOL

  7. Current fees for a standard bachelor degree are about right, maybe if a student passes every unit then they could be given a discount.

  8. [
    113
    dave

    >Has Billy been sneakily hiding his light under a bushel between budget speeches?

    No. Choosing his battles and the timing of them.
    ]

    Kind of what I meant. 🙂

  9. “@dylanthomasbai1: “Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics” – @billshortenmp #BudgetReply This is getting me excited.”

  10. Yes he did well, but not much substance regarding how this would be paid other than going for the rich and their super.

    He’s on 7:30 in a second so lets see what he says about that there.

    He is not a natural podium speaker, I would say, but did very well this time around.

  11. [Speers and the News Ltd hacks on Sky News are all saying “Where’s the money coming from?”]

    Are they complaining about the $5b injection from Hockey/Abbott vs the $96b withdrawal by same?

    No, of course not.

  12. The thing about the money is just a diversion

    Did any OL get up in a budget reply and outline expenditure and cuts?

  13. Shorten’s smart reply clearly contrasted with Hockey’s humbug.

    It appears Speers musn’t have been paying attention. It was clearly stated where the money should come from – the rorting multinationals and greedy super rich superannuants.

    This was a great Budget reply – it smacked those LNP Mp’s right in the eyes. They need to think about the garbage they are mindlessly supporting. Their days are numbered.

  14. On the humorous side, has anyone noticed that the new Green’s Leader name could be pronounced as:

    (Slang name for Richard) of Christmas?

    Hopefully if I put it like this I won’t get on William’s bad side.

    DISCLAIMER: This is only supposed to be a joke. Nothing more.

  15. scoutdog

    [His eminence Paul Kelly all boo hiss .So that will be the Murdochracy line on the speech.]

    His eminence, love it!!! Lee Sale doing her best to get a gotcha moment with Bill Shorten, he needs to hold his nerve and keep going with this. That interview was all about her not about the speech.

  16. Wow. Di Natale’s speaking to almost empty Senate. That’s a bit sad for any person to deal with, no matter how big the party they belong to.

  17. Greens Leader Di Natale listing $79 billion worth of costed revenue measures. Money would be raised by going after mining subsidies and making the wealthy pay their fair share. “Big miners, big polluters and big banks” would have to pitch in.

  18. Wow. Di Natale’s speaking to almost empty Senate. That’s a bit sad for any leader to deal with, no matter how big the party they belong to.

  19. Shorten was blustering in his speech about dropping SB tax 5%

    A few minutes later on 7:30 he is talking about “wanting to talk to Abbott to see whether it might be possible to reduce the SB tax to 25%”

    OUCH…..

  20. Greens Leader Richard Di Natale:

    “Not one cent allocated to enforcing Abbott’s multinational tax ‘plan’.”

    “How can the ATO prosecute corporate tax dodgers when their staffing has been slashed?”

    “I want good outcomes. We’ll work with all sides to deliver outcomes. I take that responsibility very seriously.”

    “We will run a fine-toothed comb over whatever they propose.”

    Now listing areas of possible cooperation.

  21. tory budget –

    AFR – It’s the budget with everything, but not in a good way: heroic forecasts, unheroic savings decisions, panicky spending decisions and a political shallowness to make even the most craven practitioner blush.

  22. Shorten wasn’t “mauled” by Sales.
    He handled her with great dignity.
    She looked like she had a one line “hidden agenda” – where’s the money coming from?” Pretty poor interview in reality !

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