Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The second post-budget poll supports the impression of the first in suggesting that nothing much has changed.

Galaxy has produced its first federal poll for the News Limited tabloids since the Liberal leadership spill vote in February, and what I guess will be one of its last given it will have the gig of conducting Newspoll for The Australian come the new financial year. The headline two-party figure is 52-48, which in a sense is down from 57-43 last time, but that doesn’t mean all that much given our distance from the starting point. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition, 39% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 2% for Palmer United. Questions concerning the budget, along with other details, will presumably be forthcoming. Hat tip to GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: The Daily Telegraph reports that the poll finds 24% saying the budget made them more likely to vote Coalition versus 29% for less likely, although 43% agree it will stimulate small business compared with 29% disagreed. We are also told that Joe Hockey rated higher than Chris Bowen as preferred Treasurer, though not by how much. The poll encompassed a sample of 1683, and I’m assuming was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

978 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Agree Guytaur however Shorten’s reply was more like a rallying cry at a Labor convention than a budget reply speech. Likely to excite the loyal supporters but few others.

  2. PhoenixGreen

    To get to your position of referendums you are going to have to have a referendum to enable it in the constitution.

    Good luck with that.. You don’t have near the numbers you need from the sample on this blog.

  3. And speaking of whom, obviously not a fan of Ipsos!

    [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 31m 31 minutes ago
    I’ll wait for Newspoll before rushing to judgement with other pollsters better known for assessing public satisfaction with frozen peas…]

  4. davidwh #952
    I don’t know about that David, that ‘entrepreneurship fund’ Labor was proposing, promises of being more co-operative with the Coalition and that 5% small business tax cut seemed to be squarely aimed at Ayn Rand-y type libertarians.

  5. GhostWhoVotes
    51m51 minutes ago
    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes
    #Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 43 (+4) ALP 35 (-3) GRN 13 (0) #auspol

  6. #ReachTEL Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 41.1 (+1.3) ALP 38.3 (-1.0) GRN 12.1 (+0.2) PUP 2.2 (0.0) #auspol
    1:12 AM – 14 May 2015

  7. For the PM to call a double dissolution without first reforming the Senate voting system would be a double throw of the dice. But he could not ram through that reform without Labor/Greens support, and hence by having them alerted to the gambit.

  8. GhostWhoVotes
    GhostWhoVotes – ‏@GhostWhoVotes
    #Galaxy Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 41 (+5) ALP 39 (-4) GRN 11 (0) PUP 2 (-1) #auspol

  9. Sir Mad Cyril – Newspoll is still the same, the change to it being done by the Galaxy company, and hence the change in its methodology, is not until July.

  10. Victoria both polls are consistent in direction but differ on extent. Also ReachTel was done soon after the budget and before the reply. But as with these polls you have to see what happens over time and look for a consistent trend.

    Also Ipsos has shown an apparent Coalition bias in the past.

  11. Ipsos 46 to 50 (+4)
    Galaxy 43 to 48 (+5)
    Reachtel 46 to 47 (+1)
    Essential 47 to 48 (+1)
    Newspoll 49 to 48 (-1) with new one pending soon

  12. @guytaur

    That’s fine, won’t stop me trying to change people’s minds. That’s how actual democracy works.


    You can’t have a plebiscite on every vote, nor should you waste people’s time with uncontroversial or technical changes. But there are ways to filter the big issues from the small, and other countries do it very well. Switzerland has on average 11 direct votes a year, at referendums held every quarter. They focus on the biggest issues. And the people themselves get to decide what constitutes a big issue, they need 50,000 signatures to challenge a parliament’s decision and 100,000 signatures to propose an entirely new issue. That’s just at the national level, much more goes on sub-national and local.

    A majority on the floor of the house doesn’t represent a majority of public opinion for the reasons I outlined before. The electoral system means most people’s candidates are eliminated, and of the minority of us who actually got our desired MP elected, up to 50% again of us will be disenfranchised by the other side getting a majority in the chamber. We are disenfranchised again if we voted for a faction which gets consistently rolled internally. And besides that, we don’t vote on issues, we vote on vague wishy-washy campaigns, on people or, if we’re really lucky, a handful of campaign promises which represent a small fraction of the business of parliament and are usually broken anyway.

    You could fill a library with possible paths our country could take, yet we get fewer policy options presented to us than we do choice of drink at the pub.

  13. The Libs will scratch their heads for a few days, not being able to believe their own luck.

    Then they’ll get cocky. Believing your own publicity is a terrible mistake.

    The Budget’s still a stinker. Just not as overt as the last one.

  14. Steve777@647

    Re Bemused @640: also, if they do PPPs in Melbourne the way they do them in Sydney, alternative routes would have been strangled to force more road users into the toll road. These changes have tended to emerge as a nasty surprise as opening day approaches, so local road users in particular would suffer. Further, future public transport options would also have been contractually constrained.

    PPPs are a scam and no responsible government should contemplate them. I am saddened that Labor Govts have been conned into them.

  15. CTar1@663


    You mentioned in passing that Gary Moore was ‘gone’. I didn’t know that.

    ‘Still got the blues’ on high rotation in my car.

    It is a fantastic album.
    My late son loved it and it makes me think of him whenever I play it.

    Another favourite is Junior Wells, ‘Come on in This House’.

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