Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The second post-budget poll supports the impression of the first in suggesting that nothing much has changed.

Galaxy has produced its first federal poll for the News Limited tabloids since the Liberal leadership spill vote in February, and what I guess will be one of its last given it will have the gig of conducting Newspoll for The Australian come the new financial year. The headline two-party figure is 52-48, which in a sense is down from 57-43 last time, but that doesn’t mean all that much given our distance from the starting point. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition, 39% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 2% for Palmer United. Questions concerning the budget, along with other details, will presumably be forthcoming. Hat tip to GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: The Daily Telegraph reports that the poll finds 24% saying the budget made them more likely to vote Coalition versus 29% for less likely, although 43% agree it will stimulate small business compared with 29% disagreed. We are also told that Joe Hockey rated higher than Chris Bowen as preferred Treasurer, though not by how much. The poll encompassed a sample of 1683, and I’m assuming was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

978 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Expat Follower @ 1048 of previous thread – “circumventing the system” is essentially the same kind of rhetoric as “queue jumping” to which I say there is no such thing as a “refugee queue”. Even if there were, with 15 million refugees in the world and less than 100,000 resettled annually worldwide, that “queue” would take 135 years for a refugee to get to the front. It is also NOT illegal under international law to seek refuge in another country, even if you are found not to be genuine.

    As for the possibility of potential refugees disappearing into the community, that would a) be a matter for law enforcement and b) be a small price to pay for a truly humane way of processing refugee applications.

  2. May as well have an early election. 18 months out and I think people have already tuned out. That said how about that A-League Grand Final this weekend? 😉

  3. Also posted in the previous thread.

    Jolyon Wagg@1033

    [I just went back to the earlier comments re bracket creep and found this from you which I don’t understand at all…

    If you used ave weekly earnings then you could get the situation where someone with real wages growth above the CPI wouldn’t move up through the bands.

    If the brackets were indexed correctly people with real wages growth would be the only ones to move up through the brackets. ]

    The discussion was about indexing the tax brackets, the commentator before suggested you could use average wage growth (AWG) or the CPI.

    I was arguing that you should use the CPI as only those who received real wage growth would be in danger of moving into a higher bracket, as it should be.

    If you used AWG this might not be the case depending on whether this was higher or lower than the CPI.

    eg AWG is higher than the CPI.

    If your wage growth is less than the AWG but greater than the CPI. You are experiencing real wage growth but you would never move to a higher bracket because the tax bracket is indexed to the higher AWG.

    Looking at the opposite case, AWG less than the CPI.

    If your wage growth is greater than the AWG but less than the CPI. You are not experiencing real wage growth yet it would be possible for you to move up to a higher bracket because the tax bracket is indexed to the lower AWG.

    Hope that makes it clearer. 🙂

  4. For anyone still reading in WA, The Saturday Paper will be available in newsagents from tomorrow. If there’s enough take-up they will start taking WA home delivery subscriptions so in case you are are looking for something more leftish (less rightish) than the Fin to read this weekend pop in to your local newsagent. The map on the website suggests it will be pretty widely available.

  5. Off these primaries the 2PP could have about as easily been 53 as 52, which cancels out the ReachTEL which was about the other way round.

    In my aggregate the impact of this Galaxy was zero. Galaxy is heavily weighted but a heavy weighting times no change is no change.

    Two polls down and no evidence yet of the Budget moving voter intention at all.

  6. I believe the reason hearts have hardened across Australia is that the general public are freaked about about the huge volume of non-Australian born people in our country and mistakenly believe that the reason there are so many is because of our intake of refugees & asylum seekers when these actually make up a very small percentage.

    I believe that moderate levels of immigration are appropriate for our country and that current levels of immigration are far too high. The reasons for my belief is that our environment suffers under the weight of greater numbers and that large levels of immigration fuel, division, hatred, racism and make it much harder for immigrants to settle and integrate into their new land.

    By integrate I do not mean they give up their culture or beliefs but mean that they get to form strong bonds with Australian born people and take up roles in our diverse community.
    When immigration is high, resistance in the receiving population increases and because the new immigrants have so many fellow immigrants from their own country around them they find little need to make bonds with others outside their cultural circles.

    I say this from personal lived experience with my own family situation, that of my friends and in the community in which I live. Large levels of immigration also doubly dispossesses the Aborigines of our land and those that have lived here for 6 or more generations.

    People that believe immigration makes us wealthier are ignorant of how to properly measure wealth. Immigrants may increase our income but they reduce our per capita wealth as the majority of the wealth in this country rests in the land and for every 100 new entrants it gets split divided 100 more times.

    If we reduced overall levels of immigration but massively increased intake of refugees I would support that. It would be good for the country and fair to its current inhabitants, more humane and better for the newcomers to our country. I think if such an outcome was achieved you’d find it with majority support in the community – we are not a racist society and it is wrong to characterise us that way, there are very valid reasons to be against the levels of immigration in Australia that have nothing to do with racism or xenophobia or greed.

  7. To be honest I find it ridiculous that people on here constantly take such narrow views on issues – narrow not narrow minded.

    To get to the truth of an issue you need to look at all the interlocking parts of the system. To talk about refugees and not talk about aborigines, the rights of other Australian born people and the overall levels of immigration cuts down the debate to such a black and white status and precludes each side of the argument from understanding each other.

    It is just constant bickering back and forth “I am right” “No I am right”… for god’s sake rather than taking that route why not try to understand WHY the person opposite you holds a different opinion – it is almost certainly not that they are a heartless bastard but most likely because they see negative consequences of taking the opposing action. You need to identify those and address them not take a “my beliefs are better than yours stance”.

    Taking in refugees temporarily saves a very select few human beings from things they would otherwise suffer. It however does nothing to save the 99% of human beings that are left behind. Truly enlightened solutions address the reasons people flee their country. Did taking in refugees from South Africa end apartheid or were vastly different tactics required?

    We should help a good number of refugees where we are able, few would dispute this, but don’t for a second imagine that this is where our energies would best be spent – our energies are best spent on solutions that fix the cause, not treat the symptoms.

  8. Luke,

    You have obviously thought a lot about this, but reading your words leaves me feeling very uncomfortable with your views expressed.

    It seems you want just enough refugees to cleanse your conscience but anyone else can bugger off.

    You seem to be expressing a longing for an Australia that existed more than half a century ago much like Howard did when he was PM.

    I’m trying not use the ‘r’ word but when reading your words it continually springs to mind.

    Sorry but there is basically nothing in what you have written that I can agree with.

  9. I am still convinced that this is the best solution to the problem of asylum seekers coming to Australia by boat:

    1. Let them fly here on commercial airlines without a visa to claim asylum (pick them up at Customs)
    2. Process them onshore and resettle them in areas of the Government’s choosing (where there are shortages of labour and/or laggard local economies).
    3. Require them to remain in that area for a given period of time (say, 18 months).
    4. Require them to take English language tuition (the cost of which should be repaid under a FEE-HELP-style system).

    This would achieve the following:

    * Keeps the boats stopped, stopping drownings at sea.
    * Keeps the people smugglers out of business.
    * Fulfills our international human rights obligations.
    * Gives refugees a solid pathway for peaceful integration into Australian society.
    * Revitalises the economies of the areas chosen for resettlement.
    * Ensures that any money spent processing such refugees goes into the Australian economy, not the economy of PNG, Nauru or Cambodia.

    The only people who wouldn’t be satisfied with this are the ignorant xenophobes – and for these people, it wasn’t about stopping the boats (and the resulting drownings at sea), it was about stopping the boat people. No political party that considers itself civilised should pander to these backward bozos.

  10. #15. What do you do if the refugees can’t find a job in the regional area? Are they then prohibited from going to the city to find a job? And what if they ignore your prohibition and go to the city anyway: do we then deport them back to the country from which they sought asylum?

    Dare I suggest your idea needs a bit of thinking through.

  11. Oh, I’ve just thought of the solution to how we keep them in regional areas: we’ll lock them up behind barbed wire! Sorry, it’s early in the morning and I’m a bit slow.

  12. Luke Hulm: I agree with you that the current levels of immigration are too high, but for slightly different reasons. (BTW, I note in passing that it was the same John Howard who expressed concerns about the level of Asian migration in the 1980s who turned that level up to the max in the 2000s. Plus la meme chose, plus ca change, I guess.)

    What the big annual influxes of migrants have done in recent years has been to make many people who were already here much wealthier: property developers, retailers, construction companies, etc. All the way down to mum and dad investors in shares, super, negatively-geared property, etc. Wealth creation fuelled by population growth and bankrolled by mining profits.

    But these industries are not export-oriented. As the mining boom eases off, so do they. They haven’t built for the future.

    If, instead, we had kept immigration rates a little lower during the 2000s , taxed the mining profits more heavily and put that money into raising our education standards and fostering 21st century industries, we’d be far better placed now to deal with the cooling off of the mining boom.

    But Australian so-called “entrepreneurs” are mostly lazy. Why go to the trouble and risk of pioneering new industries when you can just buy a whole lot of land, get it rezoned (let’s not ask too many questions about how), subdivide it, and get showered in money?

    That’s what rapid population growth enables some people to do. It’s all very shortsighted IMO. But that’s Australia.

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny on the stupidity of Abbott and Hockey.
    Sophie Morris on the mixed messages in Hockey’s budget. A good dissection.
    Ross Gittins reckons budget week was a media circus.
    Michael Gordon – Abbott’s hard sell hits a speed bump.
    Paul Bongiorno on the prodigal Morrison and Hockey’s insecurity.
    Is there a stink here?
    How budget week turned into a bun fight.
    A nice piss take on the tradies’ deductions.
    But apparently the tax man will be keeping a weather eye on the tradies. We shall see about that.
    Mike Seccombe on the “Lomborg Reboot”.

  14. Section 2 . . .

    Has the AFL killed Friday night football? They keep serving up (Victorian) dross
    Turnbull’s adviser has resigned.
    Jess Irvine calls out Abbott’s feminism credentials. She calls him a rat!
    Mr Pinstripe says we have two weak leaders.–but-not-on-what-really-matters-for-the-economy-20150515-gh2rah.html
    Lenore Taylor reviews the budget and reply.
    These private training centres have been a blight.
    Robb Hulls says that Abbott, Hockey and Brandis just don’t get it when it comes to domestic violence.–on-family-violence-they-just-dont-get-it-20150515-gh2hxf.html
    Gay Alcorn on Struggle Street says it’s only poverty porn if we watch it and turn away.
    Bob Ellis reckons the War on Terriers has killed Abbott’s early election option.,7716
    Katherine Murphy on the five things we learned during budget week.

  15. Section 3 . . .

    A monstrous back down from SA’s Emergency Services Minister over his plan to merge CFS, MFS and SES. There was going to be hell to pay.
    James Massola looks at the budget’s underlying political reasoning.
    Judith Ireland says there is little support for the PPL budget measures from the Senate cross benches.
    This mayor seems to be a nice type of guy.
    So we have a “trickle down economy” man at the helm of Treasury now?
    Alan Moir on the budget’s structural integrity.

    A little beauty from Ron Tandberg on the War on Terriers.

    John Spooner with Joe having a go.

    No comment is needed for this David Pope effort.

    Mark Knight nicely compares IS type terrorism to the domestic variety.

  16. This is a very perceptive summation of what is at stake in the Eurozone crisis.

    Firms in core European countries would not have been able to pursue export-led growth strategies if global demand had not been supported by the real estate and stock market bubbles that occurred as a result of lending. German export success, in other words, depended on Greece’s increasing indebtedness.

    Yet it is not the Greek, Portuguese, Irish or Cypriot citizens and their health and education systems that are being rescued. It is the banks that had organised the lending of super profits to these countries and who were therefore exposed to their private and national debt when the financial crisis happened. Indeed, German and French banks were particularly vulnerable to the Greek debt crisis.

  17. Keating started mandatory detention
    [Howard started offshore processing
    Rudd/Gillard started the never to be accepted into Australia policy and Malaysian rendition
    Abbott re-started the turning back the boats policy

    I condemn all governments since Fraser on this issue, ALP and LNP.

    Many here only condemn LNP governments, as you see this as a way to advance your footy team, having no consideration of the principles involved.]

  18. The “Australians are scared of boat people because they are racist” meme forgets why it was that Gillard’s government had to find a way to ‘stop the boats’.

    What made it imperative that Gillardfind a way of ‘stopping the boats’ was the Christmas Island drownings. The outrage which motivated the Australian people to demand action wasn’t racism; it was that people had drowned trying to get to Australia.

    It’s far easier for posters to ignore this and talk about why Australians are afraid of refugees. It also fits nicely into the whole ‘holier than thou’ position many of them adopt.

    As for the ‘just fly them in’ idea, firstly, we would be swamped by refugees. The boat journey did deter some, as “Go Back to Where You Came From’ made clear, as does the expense. Many people who aren’t refugees would also jump at the chance, however slim, of permanent resettlement in Australia at no cost to themselves – at the least, they’d get a free holiday at no expense to themselves and a flight home at the end of it.

    Hell, if you were an Australian abroad and a bit short of dosh, what would stop you from conveniently losing your papers and claiming refugee status – particularly when you’re going to be released into the community at the other end?

    I would assume – in the name of fairness – that the first people on the planes would be the hundreds of thousands the UNHCR has already processed….which of course will still see others coming by boat, because they don’t want to wait, unless, of course, we devote all of our air resources to running a 24/7 shuttle service and close down our airports to all other traffic.

  19. Fortprmatting stuffed up, maybe it’s the shock of saying kudos to Happiness for his/her comments on our unconscionable treatment of refugees in this country. It is a sad indictment of our collective lack of humanity that we allow this to happen in our names, let alone defend such barbarity.

    And now our regional neighbours are following our lead. How proud we must feel!

  20. I think someone else has already picked this up, but this little report might suggest that Malcolm’s Fraudband has been created by a person on LSD – a fantasy creation.

    [Stephen John Ellis, a former journalist and senior NBN adviser to Mr Turnbull, was arrested after an alleged act of indecency committed in the presence of another man.

    He was allegedly found in possession of the drug LSD and amphetamines on the same night.]

  21. adrian

    Of course, Happiness was simply saying what every other poster on this site says – that Nauru and Manus (under whichever stripe of government) are inhumane and should be closed down.

    Happiness likes to pretend she is the only poster on this site who holds this position.

  22. Stop laughing, this is serious 😀

    [A poll taken in 2013 revealed that some 12 million Americans believe Barack Obama is a lizard from outer space. This may go some way towards explaining Maurice Newman.
    . . . These are dangerous waters for a man like Newman – prime-ministerial adviser, former university chancellor and past chair of the ABC – to swim in. In so doing, he must swim close to other types of New World Order conspiracy believer: anti-Semites, racists, Tea Party fundamentalists, and people convinced that the world is run by extraterrestrial lizards.

    The lizard thing is fascinating. It stems from a theory concocted by British conspiracist David Icke, who believes that most world leaders are alien reptiles in disguise. The idea has spawned a legion of observers, who study presidents and prime ministers for telltale reptilian traits, such as poorly concealed third eyelids, flicking tongues, or suddenly biting into an unpeeled onion without shedding a tear.

    Oh, hang on …]

  23. Nicholas

    Lots and lots of words wasted on this issue. Had the Greeks paid their taxes there would NO Greek debt.

    Simple as that.

  24. Thanks again BK for your wonderful list.

    Ross Gittins makes four good points in his article today.

    1. Any increase in small business investment spending is unlikely to be big enough to make much difference to the economy’s rate of growth.

    2. Small business spending will be drawn forward into the next two financial years leaving a vacuum in 2018 and 2019.

    3. Small businesses are not “the engine room of the economy”. Big business is. Small business accounts for only about 38 per cent of the workforce and about a third of production.

    4. Taken as a package there is no stimulus from the Budget. It is mildly contractionary.

    I try to be optimistic but but it is hard to hopeful. We can’t hand over the future of our economy to small business. These are the same people who gave us the pink batts fiasco where four died and house fires started. They took a simple home handyman task and couldn’t do it properly.

    They are precisely what we don’t need: narrow self interested, under capitalised, shoestring mentality protectionists. Small business owners have a self imposed growth limit they refuse to breach. This comes out of their history and origins as “wage slave escapees”. It is unfair to expect them to generate entrepreneurial growth because it is outside their skill and experience.

    I don’t think the Libs believe in it either and Hartcher is right to say Abbott is just massaging the base with this tax deduction and tax reduction policy. Labor responds by saying it doesn’t go far enough and company tax should be reduced further. This is the wrong way.

  25. I agree with high levels of immigrations. The sad thing is the poor devils on Manus Island are being used to mask that it is occurring. Red necks conned by a Liberal government; who would have thought.

  26. I didn’t read the whole thread zoomster, but I think he/she was saying a lot more than that.

    And please spare me the drowning at sea justification that is so much hogwash.

    If we are so concerned about drownings at sea, where is the outrage and concern about 8000 plus Rohingya and Bangladeshi muslims facing almost certain death on the high seas?

    Facing almost certain death because our regional neighbours are adopting the very policies that we pioneered.
    I guess we can all feel so very proud.

  27. adrian

    [And please spare me the drowning at sea justification that is so much hogwash.]

    I wasn’t using it as a justification for my own point of view, but pointing out why the attitude of Australians in general isn’t necessarily racist.

    You can’t frame policy in this area with any degree of success and ignore public opinion.

    Neither should ‘ordinary Australians’ be portrayed as racist when their basic instinct was humanitarian.

  28. Good to see the Coalition moving in the right direction.

    Shorten is in deep trouble because it is becoming clear to the electorate he has no plan, just complaints

  29. [Good to see the Coalition moving in the right direction.]

    Yep, moving closer to the cliff edge each and every day.

  30. TBA

    [Shorten is in deep trouble because it is becoming clear to the electorate he has no plan, just complaints]

    Tony Abbott sailed into power by that very strategy.

  31. [“I am still convinced that this is the best solution to the problem of asylum seekers coming to Australia by boat:”]

    The left are really flogging a dead horse with this one.

    The boat people problem has been solved. There are no more boats.

    Pretty soon Manus and Nauru will be emptied of it’s clientele and Manus Island detention which Labor opened will be shut down again just as it was under Howard.

    Nauru will be emptied and effectively shut down bar a skeleton staff to keep the place clean as reminder that Australia is always prepared to deal with illegal boat arrivals.

    Seriously guys debating “what should happen about boat arrivals” when there ISN’T ANY really is flogging a horse from 2013. The problems been solved thanks to the Libs.

    Now you just have to be patient while the detention centres are emptied.

  32. I don’t usually respond to To Be Advised, but his latest offering is so pathetically inept, that it is clear that whoever operates the fax machine at Menzies House must be on work experience.

  33. [Good to see the Coalition moving in the right direction.

    Shorten is in deep trouble because it is becoming clear to the electorate he has no plan, just complaints]

    Funny I would have said that of Abbott. I would have thought it had been a terrible week for him. Time will tell.

    Shorten needs to flesh out his plan, add a GST increase, removal of the 50% CGT discount rort and perhaps a savings measure or two.

    I realized during the week that removing the CGT discount was a measure that will impact much more strongly the wealthy who can afford to pay rather than your struggling mums and dads, so it is definitely something you should do first. Existing properties should not be quarantined – it should be treated as a rort and removed as of day of announcement.

    Also if I heard the news item right that fool who prostituted himself to Morrison’s farcical torture tour has woken up in the morning with his payment for services ‘chief of army title’ on the bedside table. Hope it was worth it for him.

  34. Morning all

    So far the budget hasnt even produced a dead cat bounce.

    Meanwhile the slogan is coming up trumps

    [Tim Watts ‏@TimWattsMP
    Abbott #budgetWeek2015
    ✅#HaveAGo at students
    ✅#HaveAGo at schools
    ✅#HaveAGo at hospitals
    ✅#HaveAGo at new mums
    ✅#HaveAGo at celeb pets]

  35. From the thread starter:

    [The second post-budget poll supports the impression of the first in suggesting that nothing much has changed.]

    I don’t know why William is so negative.

    ABC Radio news this morning beat this up into a triumphant resurgence for the Liberal Party, saying they had improved 5 points since… well they didn’t really say since when… but 5 points anyway. Who’d knock that back?

    Ah, right…

    [The Coalition’s vote has jumped five points to 41 per cent while Labor’s has gone backwards four points to 39 per cent.]

    from the Daily Telegraph, of course.

    And the Coalition isn’t losing in the polls. They’re “within striking distance of an election victory”.

    Nice to know that the overnight news shift at the ABC reads the Tele so assiduously. It shows a magnificence of spirit that the public broadcaster pays so much attention to a newspaper that puts the boot into them at any and every opportunity.

    They have big hearts, those guys at Ultimo.

  36. Did someone say there was no more boats?! Sadly there are hundreds of asylum seekers currently drifting around the sea in our region waiting to be saved by someone anyone. 🙁

  37. Morning all.

    [The Daily Telegraph reports that the poll finds 24% saying the budget made them more likely to vote Coalition versus 29% for less likely, ]

    Oh dear. And the respondents were polled before yesterday’s reveal that Abbott is either making things up on the fly or really doesn’t know what his own budget entails.

  38. [The boat people problem has been solved. There are no more boats.]

    There are 8000 people in our region in boats, dying at sea, because of the turn backs the boats stupidity. Even lying idiots like you should be able to see it for a ridiculously bad policy now.

  39. [“Shorten needs to flesh out his plan, add a GST increase”]


    Teleprompter Bill would have got the polling on what Aussies think about a GST increase and decided that wasn’t the popular thing for him to say.

    Our Bill spends his nights reading what is popular in the electorate so he can devise his fake Bill image… man of the world… and of the people.

    But alas the acting hasn’t been paying off much for Bill lately, more and more Aussies realise this guy is a complete fake every time they see him

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