Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor

The second post-budget poll supports the impression of the first in suggesting that nothing much has changed.

Galaxy has produced its first federal poll for the News Limited tabloids since the Liberal leadership spill vote in February, and what I guess will be one of its last given it will have the gig of conducting Newspoll for The Australian come the new financial year. The headline two-party figure is 52-48, which in a sense is down from 57-43 last time, but that doesn’t mean all that much given our distance from the starting point. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition, 39% for Labor, 11% for the Greens and 2% for Palmer United. Questions concerning the budget, along with other details, will presumably be forthcoming. Hat tip to GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: The Daily Telegraph reports that the poll finds 24% saying the budget made them more likely to vote Coalition versus 29% for less likely, although 43% agree it will stimulate small business compared with 29% disagreed. We are also told that Joe Hockey rated higher than Chris Bowen as preferred Treasurer, though not by how much. The poll encompassed a sample of 1683, and I’m assuming was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

978 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Fess

    Are the electorate really listening anymore? Abbott goes on about the dealth cult ad nauseaum. Never once in my discussion with people, does this concern ever come up. 9/11 was 14 years ago. Could we simply have developed chronic fatigue re terrorism?

  2. [“There are 8000 people in our region in boats, dying at sea, because of the turn backs the boats stupidity.”]

    So you WANT to worry about an Aussie that has nothing to do with Australia?

    Why don’t you worry about your poor PNG brothers and their living standards… they used to be a Territory of Australia at one point.

  3. fess

    Whilst this instant asset write etc can be claimed immediately. From my understanding of same, is for every $20,000 expended, 30% which is the tax rate, is rebated. Ie. Approx $6000.00.

  4. [
    TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Saturday, May 16, 2015 at 8:41 am | Permalink

    Good to see the Coalition moving in the right direction.

    Shorten is in deep trouble because it is becoming clear to the electorate he has no plan, just complaints
    ]
    Not sure if you just posting Liberal party talking points or trying to be a comedian. The Liberals are so far from reality these days it is hard to tell.

  5. Andrew Elder comments on ‘no flies ‘ ScoMo

    [Now Hockey, Abbott, and the government, depends utterly upon Morrison as the responsible minister to find a detailed solution to the whole PPL/childcare issue, and negotiate it through the Senate. He is both arsonist and fire brigade, hoping – knowing – that only the latter role will be remembered by a press gallery thirsty for a new hero. There are no flies on Scott Morrison. You can’t even see where they’ve been. His run to the Prime Ministership will not be questioned.]

    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/no-flies-on-scott-morrison.html

  6. [” From my understanding of same, is for every $20,000 expended, 30% which is the tax rate, is rebated. Ie. Approx $6000.00.”]

    A rebate is something you get back so your understanding is wrong.

    It’s a deduction. You must have made $40K in your business for the deduction to be worthwhile.

  7. Fess

    I should add that whilst the threat of nutjobs committing terrorism in Australia, is a real and present danger. I am more fearful of drug affected ice addicts being out and about driving, on public transport and hurting family and acquaintenances.

  8. Actually, this

    [kudos to Happiness for his/her comments on our unconscionable treatment of refugees in this country..]

    followed by this —

    […I think he/she was saying a lot more than that.]

    is quite sad.

    adrian lauds ModLib’s stance but hasn’t been bothered reading enough of it to remember what she actually said, let alone defend it.

  9. [So you WANT to worry about an Aussie that has nothing to do with Australia?

    Why don’t you worry about your poor PNG brothers and their living standards… they used to be a Territory of Australia at one point.]

    This doesn’t make any sense at all. I can’t even work out what lie you are trying to tell and how it relates to the mass murder and torture you are defending.

  10. victoria:

    It doesn’t seem like people are listening to the govt anymore.

    And I agree re ice. A true scourge of our society.

  11. Sprocket

    Many of us bludgers have been observing that Morrison is the anointed one. Yet the other day he suggested mums rorted the system. He is an unattractive unsympathetic looking man. At least Shorten has a twinkle in the eye which softens him somewhat. Good luck libs I say

  12. [” From my understanding of same, is for every $20,000 expended, 30% which is the tax rate, is rebated. Ie. Approx $6000.00.”

    A rebate is something you get back so your understanding is wrong.

    It’s a deduction. You must have made $40K in your business for the deduction to be worthwhile.]

    It has been explained here two or three times, but it was always a deduction, and you don’t need 40k of profit only 20k. All that happens is instead of depreciating your capital investment over the appropriate effective life of the asset you claim all the deduction in year 1. So it isn’t even an increased deduction it is simply a deduction brought forward. It is obviously good if you were going to have profit and had a capital investment you needed, but it does nothing for getting you extra customers (unless you sell capital items to other small business) and so is a lot less interesting and will be a lot less effective than the Rudd / Swan stimulus measures.

    It is a good measure with other stimulus measures (to help small business support the increased business of the other measures), it will be interesting to see if it does anything of itself other than move deductions forward a few years.

  13. Yep, the media dallied with Malcolm, but it became too obvious that he’ll never get up (an empty chair was preferable); tried out Julie, but she flopped; so Morrison it is.

    Mirabella showed her usual talent for picking the next Liberal leader. It was no coincidence that he attended her fundraiser, and that this was followed by her announcing her intention to run.

  14. WWP

    If the govt wants to stimulate every facet of the economy, they would have done better by sending a stimulus cheque to all Australians.

  15. zoomster

    Not cos Morisaon is a Liberal. But he gives me the creeps. Even more so than Abbott. Will the electorate warm to him?

  16. No sign of ESJ this time. Apparently the penny has finally dropped that there is no “slip sliding” going on.

    Another one of Ed’s wet dreams bites the dust.

  17. [
    victoria
    Posted Saturday, May 16, 2015 at 9:00 am | Permalink

    fess

    Whilst this instant asset write etc can be claimed immediately. From my understanding of same, is for every $20,000 expended, 30% which is the tax rate, is rebated. Ie. Approx $6000.00.
    ]

    All equipment purchased is 100% tax deductable over the life of the equipment. Maintaintance is deductable at 100% in the year the expenditure occures. And it is fair enough, money spent to produce is not profit. This budget measure allows you to deduct 100% of the investment in the year of expenditure.

    As money costs and is difficult to obtain it is an incentive; but it is far from a $20,000 handout. It is a very common way of stimulating the economy with several governments having done similar things. The $20,000 limit is not so common; it short a straight down the line media circus.

  18. I do like this from Elder, on the framing of the Budget —

    [No bold moves fiscally or policy-wise.
    A bit of help for AussieFamilies™ in 2017 or something.
    Please don’t hate us.
    We’re doing the best that we can. Really. We’re firing on all cylinders.
    You should see the other guys.]

  19. Hi Meher,

    [But Australian so-called “entrepreneurs” are mostly lazy. Why go to the trouble and risk of pioneering new industries when you can just buy a whole lot of land, get it rezoned (let’s not ask too many questions about how), subdivide it, and get showered in money?]

    That’s a bit unfair. It’s hard to start a high-risk business when the cost of housing chews up 1/3 or more of average wages – and you have no income. Most entrepreneurial people I’ve met have either taken off overseas to get things going, or worked hard and slow while retaining a full-time job.

    In contrast, places such as Bali and Chang Mai are setting up cheap accommodation and facilities (basic offices with good internet access) for entrepreneurs to work and develop their business ideas, without burning through all their savings.

    It would be great if somewhere like Toowoomba, Coffs Habour, somewhere on the NSW Central Coast or Moe decided to do the same.

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, this all comes back to the price of land. If we could find a way to bring property prices down without inviting recession, or just plain old howls of protest from those who loose out in the short term, then this country would find a way forward. As it is now, we have high wages and low capital productivity precisely because so much income and revenue goes to the cost of land.

  20. One bit of investment advice I have always followed was to never invest in something because it generates a tax deduction.mit has to do better than just that.

    So while a lot of friends and colleagues were tipping money into managed investment schemes I stayed out. To my ultimate benefit in many cases.

    And when my sons were younger they were very good at hunting through the brochures to find a sale price for some bauble they wanted but I couldn’t afford.

    “Look at how much you will save,” they would exclaim.

    “Look at how much I Have to spend,” was my reply.

    These thoughts are brought to mind by the so called Tory tradie tax measure.

  21. Well, the “nothing much has changed” header maybe the balanced way of reporting this current poll, but ABC News Radio, dutifully operating in its role of relay station for the Murdoch outfit described this poll as “showing the biggest jump in months with the Coalition making up 5 points” since the bad old days.

    Does the ABC have to report in the terms they pick up the item as it comes raw from Murdoch land?

    I do not quibble at this as some kind of bias, but sheer laziness on behalf of the ABC in just accepting the news piece as it comes to them.

    What the poll shows, as has been done here, is that the 52-48 thing has been in place for months now and so “no change” would have been the go.

  22. And what “We want Paul” said.

    Yes you can wipe out your profit but to do so you need to have something you want to buy and access to the capital to buy it.

    As to the limit; you can buy very large pieces of equipment in small chunks.

    The limit I do not understand. If you want to simulate the economy I would have thought you would extend to those that:

    a) Buy stuff built in Australia (cars are no longer, thank Joe); some of the larger stuff still is.
    b)Have the capital.

    One can only put it down to a desire to run a media circus.

  23. And what rossmcg said.

    Talk of second ute’s and tv’s is rubbish. It has got to fit in with your long term plans for the bussiness.

  24. rossmcg

    I say the same thing all the time.
    My feeling that a genuine saving, is only if the purchase is a necessary item. For eg. If say a staple item of food is usually $5.00 and it is on sale for $4.00. A saving of $1.00 is made. But of course, you still needed to expend $4.00. So it is really always an expenditure.

  25. [“It has been explained here two or three times, but it was always a deduction, and you don’t need 40k of profit only 20k.”]

    Oh God here we go.

    Can you tell us what tax rate someone who makes $20K a year is?

  26. Libertarian Unionist very unlibertarian ideas in post 72. DOn’t tell you believe governments do have a roll to play.

  27. BB@44

    Sorry about this, but I missed your 44 at my 75 (and others too.

    It is just so – predictable – that the ABC seems intent on being so – even handed – that it dare not come to its own opinion about a poll.

    I only picked up the ABC News Radio item first thing this morning in Perth.

    Not that it matters I suppose as the listening audience for NR would fit in a mini-van in Perth.

    Nothing in the venerable West of course, whose readership, even at the weekend, would not fill Subiaco oval these days I suppose.

  28. LU

    I am with you re cost of housing. Imagine how much more disposable income would be generated in the economy, if housing costs did not chew up so much of the budget

  29. [
    TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Saturday, May 16, 2015 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    “It has been explained here two or three times, but it was always a deduction, and you don’t need 40k of profit only 20k.”

    Oh God here we go.

    Can you tell us what tax rate someone who makes $20K a year is?
    ]
    Clearly you are not a small bussiness owner; otherwise you would have not posted such a stupid quesition. As it stands that tax rates for all companies is the same.

    Shorten wants to change that (like victorian payroll tax) clealy you had no idea what he was on about.

  30. Heres 2 examples on how the small business deduction works.

    Person 1 who makes $100K a year runs out and buys a new small vehicle.. lets say a nice shiny Renault Clio in the Mercury Grey colour. The car costs $16K but with extras it comes to $19K.

    Man 1’s taxable income for the year is now $81K. He pays tax as if he had only ever made $81K.

    Person 2 makes only $20K a year and rushes out and buys the same car. They are now making effectively a $1K in income for the year. Net benefit = Negilible because you only pay tax above $18,200 anyway.

  31. [rossmcg

    I say the same thing all the time.
    My feeling that a genuine saving, is only if the purchase is a necessary item. For eg. If say a staple item of food is usually $5.00 and it is on sale for $4.00. A saving of $1.00 is made. But of course, you still needed to expend $4.00. So it is really always an expenditure.]

    Exactly. If you were definitely going to be in profits and paying tax on at least $20k and you were going to buy a new 3D printer, or a new metal press, or a new computer system, and you were going to be expanding your business / going to have an expanding customer base anyway, it is a nice little sweetener you’ll love.

  32. My parents were immigrants. Their mantra was to pay off the house as quickly as possible and not be tied to a debt until retirement. Their thought process was that even with periods of unemployment, if there was no mortgage to service, you could get by for a while. They never bought a car or furniture on debt either. and the money available for discretionary spending would be there once the burden of a mortgage was gone.

  33. [” As it stands that tax rates for all companies is the same.”]

    Most small businesses don’t pay company tax.

    I dunno how many times I need to keep saying this.

  34. [
    TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Saturday, May 16, 2015 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    ” As it stands that tax rates for all companies is the same.”

    Most small businesses don’t pay company tax.

    I dunno how many times I need to keep saying this.
    ]
    Clearly your definition of a small business and mine are totally different. Anybody operating an unincorporated business is a fool; to begin with the tax rate on an incorporated entity is less than the highest marginal rate. That’s before we get into risk and deductible business expense.

  35. victoria:

    My grandparents lived by the same mantra as your parents. They never bought anything on credit, ever.

    A far cry from today’s lifestyles where people even extend their mortgages to take holidays for heavens sake.

  36. [
    TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Saturday, May 16, 2015 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    ” As it stands that tax rates for all companies is the same.”

    Most small businesses don’t pay company tax.

    I dunno how many times I need to keep saying this.
    ]
    Actually in today’s environment they do; it’s called the GST. Most small incorporated (I find it amazing I have to add that; but I am pointing out basics to a liberal voter) business’s do not pay a tax on profit as they don’t make a profit.

    If they don’t make a profit the moving forward of deductibility offers the business nothing.

  37. [TrueBlueAussie
    I forgot your trying to be a comedian; sorry for being so harsh.]

    Don’t be sorry you have no reason to expect a piece of intelligence in the pile of merde served up.

  38. ‘fess

    [A far cry from today’s lifestyles where people even extend their mortgages to take holidays for heavens sake.]

    And also aspire to have as their first residence something bigger and better than their parents place. No 2 beddie rented flats for them.

    Part of what drives the cost of land I guess.

  39. [If they don’t make a profit the moving forward of deductibility offers the business nothing.]

    Yeah it would be interesting what percentage do make a profit of at least 20k. My initial response to the budget was ‘yeah as if any of the farmers or small businesses are going to admit to making a profit anyway!’.

  40. fess

    Luckily, I have followed some of my parents mantra. It has held me in good stead.

    Ctar1

    I came to the conclusion years ago, that a bigger and better house would not make me any happier. Once you achieve a level of comfort. Ie a house that has a working kitchen, bathroom, heating and cooling, anything more becomes more or less “meh”

  41. FMD. Our pathetic PM is in Melbourne today with OL of Victoria to carry on again about east west link. FFS f off Abbott

  42. [FMD. Our pathetic PM is in Melbourne today with OL of Victoria to carry on again about east west link. FFS f off Abbott]

    You can certainly say they don’t give up easily. Must have polling on it.

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