ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

Reaction to the government’s second budget has been mediocre at best, according to the first of what promises to be a flurry of new opinion polls.

ReachTEL has leapt into the post-budget field on behalf of the Seven Network, with an automated phone poll conducted last night from 3180 respondents. It records a slight improvement for the Coalition compared with the pollster’s earlier holding pattern, with the Coalition primary vote on 41.1% (up 1.3%), Labor on 38.3% (down 1.0%), the Greens on 12.1% (up 0.2%) and Palmer United on 2.2% (steady). Interestingly, the poll provides breakdowns by respondents’ employment status, which I might take a closer look at later in comparison with past post-election survey data. The budget doesn’t get a huge endorsement, with 16.4% rating they will be better off, 30.3% worse off and 53.3% about the same.

Contrary to other recent polling, this result gives Bill Shorten a clear lead on preferred prime minister of 57.2-42.8, with the important methodological distinction that respondents to this poll were not allowed an “uncommitted” option. Questions on leadership approval provide more evidence of Tony Abbott’s ongoing improvement, while Bill Shorten’s “satisfactory” result is up at the expense of both favourable and unfavourable responses. A three-way question on who has done the best job promoting the budget finds only 11.7% favouring Tony Abbott, with the rest divided between Joe Hockey (44.8%) and Scott Morrison (43.4%). Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,059 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. Remember the $80 billion in cuts in payments to the states over 10 years? They’re still there in abbotts budget – totally unmentioned this year, but counted.

  5. Yes dave and they’re led by the self proclaimed “infrastructure PM”.
    Abbott just spouts crap at every opportunity.

  6. Leigh tried hard but Bill did well. Good interview.
    When did Abbott ever outline any spending cuts in any of his budget in reply speeches? Hell when did he actually say anything of any substance at all when he we oppo leader??

  7. [Shorten was blustering in his speech about dropping SB tax 5%

    A few minutes later on 7:30 he is talking about “wanting to talk to Abbott to see whether it might be possible to reduce the SB tax to 25%”

    OUCH]

    Why ouch? He is showing something Abbott will never be able to class! Recognizing that long term issues need long term solutions – understand?

  8. Greens Leader Richard Di Natale:
    “I remain sceptical of this government. We aren’t going to get a deal for the sake of getting a deal.”

    “This government has used its power to reshape Australia to fit its own narrow ideology.”

    “There is another way. I pledge to lead the fight for a more decent, more caring and more compassionate country.”

  9. given that I doubt the opposition has acess to the treasury forecasts that underpin the budget it is a bit cute to expect to them to stand up two days later and deliver an alternative budget.

    That is of course unless you are a Tory media cheerleader.

    If my memory serves me correctly didn’t Abbott have an absolute shocker in his first budget reply?

  10. [Yes dave and they’re led by the self proclaimed “infrastructure PM”. ]

    Let’s not forget he is also the “Minister for Women” – and as such, is presiding over the destruction of both fair paid parental leave and childcare.

  11. Just caught the last few minutes of Shorten on 7.30 and I was impressed with the confident way he handled it. He played her on a break.

    If he takes that kind of self assured performance into the election campaign I’m now convinced he will do very well. Apart from anything else he seems to have gotten rid of all those annoying aaahs. A much improved performance all round I thought.

  15. @rossmcg 159

    Bill Shorten does have access to the PBO. The Greens presented $79 billion worth of costed revenue proposals in their budget reply, so I don’t see how Labor with hundreds more staff and millions more in research funding couldn’t manage it.

  18. Those who listened to his Budget in Reply Speech are fully aware he talked about co-operating with the Government in decreasing the SB tax rate to 25%.

    Sadly, for many in Small business it still won’t help as we don’t have any profits left to pay tax on ! The LNP just don’t get it !

  19. Expat

    It is one thing to argue a point of view, based on facts, and even spiced with personal opinion and a rusted on bias, and lead it to a conclusion. And then to engage in discussions with those with contrary views, whilst keeping the goalposts constant and not changing the subject.

    As Shorten calls it, a competition of ideas.

    Many did that here, arguing for and against FPMJG.

    It is altogether different to simply state a controversial or wilfully provocative conclusion in 5 or 6 words with no underlying argument or reasons, and to do this constantly, frequently, habitually, jumping from topic to topic as trolls do.

  20. ausdavo + P1

    Plus his supposed status as bestie of Aboriginals. Bill mentioned tonight a lazy $100 million had been taken out of Aboriginal housing.

  21. [ The budget was ‘a hoax

    But Shorten did not duck the chance to speak directly to the nation’s lounge-rooms either, slamming the budget as a missed opportunity for the nation, while flagging support for some government savings measures, and unveiling his own initiatives.

    “The 2015 budget has neither the qualities, nor the priorities of the Australian people,” Mr Shorten told Parliament.

    “The test for this budget was to plan for the future: to lift productivity, to create jobs, to boost investment, to turbo-charge confidence for the years and decades ahead – to restore hope.

    “But this budget fails every test – it is a hoax, a mirage, a smokescreen.”

    …And his harshest criticisms were directed squarely at Prime Minister Tony Abbott after he ditched his “Rolls-Royce” paid parental leave scheme, and then moved to reduce entitlements currently available to new mothers.

    “In just one year, this Prime Minister has gone from the staunchest defender of paid parental leave to vilifying tens of thousands of women who rely upon it,” Mr Shorten said.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-offers-an-olive-branch-over-company-tax-for-small-business-20150514-gh1wzr.html

  23. [ Plus his supposed status as bestie of Aboriginals. Bill mentioned tonight a lazy $100 million had been taken out of Aboriginal housing. ]

    Well, we all know what being a “bestie” of Abbott actually means!

  24. A good effort from both Shorten and Di Natale, I think. Very glad to see the new face of the Greens speak so eloquently, and to see Bill Shorten start to find his voice. Here’s hoping for a Labor + Greens landslide in the not too distant future.

  26. Phoenix

    Ah the Greens answers for everything.

    I doubt the PBO has access to the background to the Treasury budget numbers and can come up with replies in 48 hours.

    I don’t bash the greens but di Natale (who I quite like) can drop numbers at will and nobody will question them because it doesn’t matter.

  27. dave what a pity he didn’t mention Frydenburg and Corrmann’s wives who were two of those cruelly labelled by Hockey and Morrison before the Budget.

  28. Re: di Natale’s budget reply
    By ‘savings over the forward estimates’, I’m assuming that he’s talking about the 4 budget years that have been forecast? (i.e. 2015-2016, 2016-2017, 2017-2018 and 2018-2019)

  29. [Sadly, for many in Small business it still won’t help as we don’t have any profits left to pay tax on ! The LNP just don’t get it]

    Yep, big government don’t get small business, they think we’re all cashed up and ready to binge.

  31. Just watched the Shorten BRS and it was a competent job. He is not the world’s greatest speaker but then he doesn’t have much to beat on the other side.

    Bluster from Hockey and slogans from Abbott.

    Shorten spoke slowly and methodically and enunciated Labor’s position well I thought.

    I doubt whether more than 5% of Oz either know or care either about the BS last night or the reply today. Even fewer were probably watching.

  32. [Bill mentioned tonight a lazy $100 million had been taken out of Aboriginal housing.]

    He actually skewered the coalition and Abbott in particular on several fronts. Going for the future angle when the Abbott boosters would’ve anticipated the fairness emphasis was especially smart.

    There is nothing future looking about the coalition or its budget right about now, other than as the future pertains to the next election, however soon that might be.

    As Keating once said of Abbott: young fogey. And doesn’t it sum up his govt!

  34. Worst thing is Mike, they are quite alright about BIG business ripping the heart out of SMALL business. Every job created in BIG business costs 4 jobs lost in SMALL business !

  36. @rossmcg 176

    Actually the Greens feed their policies into the PBO continuously, and just get them to update the numbers when new data becomes available with budgets.

    Nobody’s forcing you to read the numbers, but for the Greens it’s important to have the figures costed to show their ideas add up. Especially since so many of those ideas are later poached by the other parties (Again, not complaining!).

    Glad to see Shorten put some ideas forward too.

  37. [Peter Brent @mumbletwits · May 13
    Reckon Bill Shorten is going to announce something surprising, big and stupid in budget reply tomorrow night.]

    Tweeted around this time yesterday.

  40. Confessions…just ‘cos he has a blog does not mean Brent has any better idea of what comes the next day than anyone else.

    In fact, Shorten’s speech was the very antithesis of Brent’s prediction.

    How wrong can you be?

  41. Peter Brent @mumbletwits · May 13
    Reckon Bill Shorten is going to announce something surprising, big and stupid in budget reply tomorrow night.

    Two outta three ain’t bad.

  43. [Going for the future angle when the Abbott boosters would’ve anticipated the fairness emphasis was especially smart.]

    Worked well for me.

  45. I am puzzled by the very large disparity in relation to Preferred PM in the few more recent polls.

    The conservative press, after the last Newspoll, spent much time and effort telling us how much Abbott was making up ground in this area.

    Reachtel seems to have dumped Abbott right back where he was.

    Wonder if such will be highlighted by the Seven network? From what I have read on line, it is all to do with the one and a bit points made up by the conservative side and next to nothing about PPM.

    Just amazing how the media makes up its mind what it thinks is significant from poll to poll.

  46. confessions

    [As Keating once said of Abbott: young fogey. And doesn’t it sum up his govt!]

    I liked Keating here on Abbott and the economy (again I know).

    “an intellectual nobody” 😆

    “no policy ambition” 😆 😆

    “resident nutter” OMG how true!

    “where is the thought out position” well that truthism.

    Note how Kelly ignores the lot, Liberal voter as Ellis maintains.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0_BSI6GrZw

  48. What fell flat was Corman’s effort – with his mate – this morning to pull the rug from under Shorten’s offering tonight.

    They might as well have just done a bit of office work for all the impact they had.

    “Show us the money” is all the conservatives have at the moment.

  49. An extraordinarily painful Pontificating Paul Kelly on Sky News being apoplectic over Shorten’s speech.
    Time to start using your super, Paul.

  50. Did Abbott aver give a budget reply where he outlined his cuts to health, education, welfare, the ABC, SBS …. And his plan to tax bananas.

    No. He actually denied he was going to do any of those things.

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